HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 28th October 2026.

NASDAQ Rebounds ahead of Earnings, US Dollar Surges as Central Banks Surprise Investors.

Market developments and breaking news are unfolding at a rapid pace, driving higher volatility and significant shifts in market trends. The first market surprises come from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Australian inflation data.

Both the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are seeing strong new trends. However, investors are also closely waiting for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, the Bank of Canada's rate decision, the UK’s autumn budget and major technology earnings. The stock market and the US Dollar Index are particularly rising on Wednesday during the Asian session.
The NASDAQ rose 1.15% on Tuesday and continues to rise by a further 0.30% this morning. Due to this rise, the NASDAQ has corrected the previous decline from last week but continues to remain more than 5% lower than its all-time high.

The rebound is due to positive earnings reports from Korean semiconductor and AI-related companies. For this reason, the South Korean KOSPI is trading more than 6.50% higher this morning.

South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix reported quarterly profits more than seven times higher than a year earlier, supporting confidence in demand for advanced memory chips used in AI. A direct connection cannot be seen, but the positive news is improving sentiment towards AI globally. For this reason, the NIKKEI 225, NASDAQ and S&P 500 are edging higher. However, indices which are not exposed to AI continue to struggle.

Another factor supporting the NASDAQ’s upward momentum is growing investor optimism ahead of Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s earnings reports. Markets are anticipating positive financial results from both technology giants, further strengthening bullish sentiment.

Alphabet stock is trading 1.30% higher in after hours and Microsoft 0.10% higher. If both companies beat earnings and revenue expectations while keeping spending under control, both stocks can rise and boost the overall sentiment towards the NASDAQ.

If earnings reports do impress investors, the possibility of the NASDAQ correcting back to its previous high increases. However, risks continue to remain with key central bank decisions and oil prices again rising on Wednesday by more than 2.00%.

Lastly, earnings reports from Tuesday read negative but so far is having a minimal impact on the NASDAQ and S&P 500. Boeing stocks fell more than 10% due to cautious growth expectations. Visa stocks also fell 1.75% due to disappointing earnings.
In terms of technical analysis on the 5-Minute chart, indications remain bullish. The 90-bar simple moving average is best representing the current momentum and trend. While the price remains above this moving average, the indications remain strong. If the price is to drop below $29,716.00 (200-bar simple moving average), indications are likely to shift towards bearish in the short-term and neutral in the medium-term.

The US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day and of the week, with investors turning to the currency as a safe-haven asset. Investors are also pricing in hawkish guidance for December’s Federal Reserve meeting and 2027’s path.

The Federal Reserve is due to announce its rate decision at 18:00 GMT, with the press conference to follow. Markets expect the Fed to hold, partially due to avoiding hiking interest rates before the midterm elections. The pause is not likely to pressure the US Dollar, but markets will be listening closely to how the committee views rates over the next 6 months. A hawkish tone can keep the US Dollar Index comfortable above 102.00 and even move closer to 103.00.

The Swiss Franc is one of the worst-performing currencies of the past week. The USD/CHF is showing a short-term bullish bias on the 15-minute chart, with buyers attempting to maintain upward momentum towards the key psychological level at 0.83400. The MACD suggests positive momentum, although a confirmed bullish crossover on the 15-minute timeframe remains to be verified. From a Bollinger Bands perspective, sustained price action above the middle band and towards the upper band would support further bullish momentum.
The New Zealand Dollar is one of the worst-performing assets of the day and the worst-performing currency. The NZD index has fallen 1.35% after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand chose to pause rather than hike. Previously, market analysts and economists were almost solely anticipating a 0.25% hike.

The shock pause prompted a sudden selloff. Of particular interest is the NZDUSD, which fell instantly to a key support level at 0.55780 and lost all gains from the past 2-weeks. Momentum indicators are indicating bearish price movement, while oscillators and price divergence are pointing towards the price being oversold.

The Australian Dollar, on the other hand, is finding support from higher inflation data. The Australian inflation rate has risen from 4.0% to 4.3%, higher than previous expectations. The AUD is amongst the best-performing currencies of the day so far.

1. Strong Korean semiconductor earnings and optimism ahead of major technology earnings support the NASDAQ’s recovery.
2. The US Dollar reaches a two-week high as investors anticipate hawkish guidance from the Federal Reserve.
3. The New Zealand Dollar declines sharply following the RBNZ’s unexpected decision to leave interest rates unchanged.
4. Higher-than-expected Australian inflation strengthens the AUD and supports expectations of tighter monetary policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 29th October 2026.

NASDAQ Falls as Alphabet Earnings Disappoint and Fed Signals Further Rate Hikes.

The NASDAQ's three-day streak came quickly to an end during Thursday's Asian session. The NASDAQ is not only the index trading lower, but is experiencing the largest fall. European indices and the Dow Jones are edging slightly higher while most tech-linked indices are falling.
The downward price movement is a result of the Federal Reserve press conference, the FOMC vote split, and poor Alphabet earnings. At the same time, investors continue to feel the pressure from high inflation, oil prices, and bond yields.
The stock has been trading 1.70% lower over the last week and fell a further 9.97% after trading hours. Alphabet stocks are now one of the few AI-stocks trading in negative territory for 2026.
Alphabet's earnings report had both positive and negative figures, but investors were quick to sell due to fears over the AI trend. For investors to maintain confidence in AI-related stocks, companies must exceed expectations across all key performance metrics.
The positives from the earnings report were that the company's overall revenue rose 25% year on year and beat market expectations. Google Cloud revenue also rose above previous predictions. However, the key bearish drivers came from earnings and AI spending.
Net income declined approximately 25% to $26.2 billion, partly due to an $8.7 billion investment loss. Google advertising revenue reached $82 billion but missed analyst forecasts by slightly more than $1 billion, raising concerns about Search monetization. Lastly, AI capital expenditure reached $51.4 billion during the quarter, with management expecting further increases in 2027.
Alphabet stocks are the third most influential component for the NASDAQ with Nvidia and Apple ranking first and second. The decline is applying significant pressure on the index and sentiment towards AI overall. Microsoft stock is reacting positively to its earnings report, but the increase is moderate and is not outweighing the importance of the Alphabet's earnings.
The company saw stronger earnings, revenue, and positive cloud growth, easing investor concerns about the profitability of AI. Unlike Alphabet, Microsoft's shares rallied after hours, supported by strong Azure demand and impressive cash flow. However, gains were minimal to moderate as investors remain concerned about AI in general and due to the Fed's forward guidance.
Revenue reached $92.3 billion, while adjusted EPS rose 18% to $4.89, demonstrating resilient profitability. Furthermore, Azure revenue increased 48% to $33.17 billion, exceeding forecasts as demand for AI and cloud infrastructure remained strong. Microsoft forecasts Azure revenue growth of 49%-50% next quarter, alongside stronger-than-expected overall sales.
The only concern for investors is AI spending. Capital expenditure reached $45.2 billion during the quarter and is expected to exceed $50 billion next quarter. Nevertheless, Microsoft stock is trading with a 15.00% gain in 2026 so far.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but adopted a hawkish outlook and a positive economic assessment. Warsh highlighted resilient consumer spending, robust capital investment, and strong productivity, suggesting the economy can withstand restrictive monetary policy.
Out of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 10 members voted for a pause, while two members for a hike. Most economists believe the Federal Reserve will hike in December, with a further hike in the first quarter of 2027.
The Fed reiterated its commitment to returning inflation to 2%, signaling little willingness to tolerate persistently higher prices. However, it did advise that the decision will be data-dependent and that it will not risk an economic slowdown. Nevertheless, investors remain concerned about persistently high inflation.
So far, the outcome of the Federal Reserve's rate decision and guidance is a weaker Dollar, lower Gold prices, and a downward swing among most indicators .

HFM - NASDAQ 15-Minute Chart

Despite the latest events, most institutions continue to believe the NASDAQ will rise in the long term, but that the road will be 'choppy'. However, this will depend on market conditions.
Key events that will impact the NASDAQ will now be the Core PCE Price Index, US GDP, and Amazon's earnings report. Higher inflation and resilient US GDP growth could reinforce rate-hike expectations, adding further pressure on the NASDAQ. This pressure could intensify if Amazon, currently the index's fifth most influential stock, also fails to meet earnings expectations.
In the short term, the price of the NASDAQ is trading below moving averages and the VWAP. In addition, the price remains on the bearish side of most oscillators. However, medium-term charts remain neutral as the price remains within range-bound conditions.
For bullish scenarios, the main bullish breakout level can be seen mainly at $29,637.00. Price action on the 30-minute chart will indicate clear bullish momentum at $29,800.00. Above these prices, buy signals can potentially materialize, particularly if inflation does not tick upwards. However, below $29,435.00, bearish signals could gain momentum.

• The NASDAQ faces renewed downward pressure following hawkish Federal Reserve guidance and disappointing Alphabet earnings.
• Alphabet shares declined nearly 10%, while Microsoft's stronger earnings supported a more moderate 2.9% gain.
• The Fed's 10-2 vote reinforced expectations of further rate hikes amid persistent inflation concerns.
• Upcoming US inflation, GDP data, and Amazon earnings could influence the NASDAQ's direction, with bearish momentum strengthening below 29,435.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyze the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 30th October 2026.

NASDAQ Crashes: Poor Tech Earnings, Rising Inflation & Market Sell-Off.

Friday has been a challenging day for markets, with stocks, the US Dollar and Gold all trading lower. Driving the downward price movement is poor earnings across multiple key companies, high inflation, and the midterm elections.

As most assets decline, the main beneficiaries are bonds and Oil. The rise in bonds is a direct result of the change in market mood as investors opt to increase exposure to ‘risk-off’ assets. The US 10-year Treasury bond is now trading at its highest level since early September.
The latest earnings reports to pressure market sentiment and continue to derail the AI trend are from Amazon and Intel. Amazon stock, the fifth most influential stock in the NASDAQ, fell more than 11.50% over the past 24 hours. Intel shares also fell a staggering 23.00%.

Intel stock, which has been one of the best-performing stocks in the NASDAQ in 2026, fell significantly after its earnings guidance. The stock had been trading with a 133.80% increase in 2026. However, the stock has been struggling since May and saw one of its largest declines overnight.

Intel’s earnings data actually came in slightly above market expectations, but its forecasts were lower. Intel forecast revenue of $15–16 billion, below analysts’ expectations of approximately $17 billion. Investors remain concerned about weakening PC demand, rising memory costs, and manufacturing constraints.

Furthermore, Amazon’s earnings report had some positives, but they were overshadowed by negative factors. Strong growth in its cloud computing division was a positive factor. However, the company saw substantial AI spending, weak guidance for the next quarter, and slightly lower earnings.

The week has been marked by disappointing earnings reports, not only in the technology sector but across multiple industries. Within the tech sector, Alphabet, Amazon, Intel, and Fortinet were among the main disappointments, while Caterpillar, Boeing, and DaVita also faced negative market reactions. Even companies that reported positive earnings, such as Microsoft, initially saw their shares rise, only for broader negative market sentiment to erase those gains.

Major companies will continue to release their earnings reports next week, potentially influencing the NASDAQ’s performance and broader stock market movements. Apple, Quacomm, and AMD are the main influential companies. If these companies also fail to impress investors, selling pressure on the NASDAQ could intensify significantly, particularly if Apple, the index’s second most influential stock, experiences a decline.
Another stock in the spotlight is SpaceX, following Anthropic. SpaceX stock fell 0.95% on Thursday and a further 2.45% after hours. Bloomberg has learned that Anthropic is SpaceX's largest single customer, accounting for more than a third of its revenue.

Anthropic has also overtaken the federal government, which was thought to be the main source of income. This underscores SpaceX’s exposure to a client with the contractual ability to exit the deal as soon as next year.

SpaceX currently holds a weighting of 4.70%, meaning a decline could pressure the NASDAQ. Currently, among the NASDAQ’s most influential companies, 75% are declining, and the top five most volatile stocks are all declining. Simultaneously, the VIX index is trading more than 5.00% higher on Friday, pointing towards a clear ‘risk-off’ sentiment.
Other than earnings data, economic releases are also applying pressure on the stock market. The US economy grew faster than previously expected, while the Core PCE inflation rate continues to rise. As a result, the Federal Reserve is likely to hike on two occasions over the next six months.

The US Advance GDP figure for the quarter rose from a 1.5% increase to a 3.4% and beat expectations by 0.2%. The Core PCE Price Index rose 0.3%, above the 0.2%, which the Federal Reserve would like to see as a maximum. US weekly unemployment claims also came in slightly softer adding only 195,000 claims.

Simultaneously, oil prices are again on the rise as Middle East tensions increase and markets expect renewed attacks after the US midterms. Crude Oil prices are trading almost 1.00% higher on Friday and have risen above $104 per barrel.

The economic releases continue to point towards high inflation and further rate hikes from global central banks. This could pressure consumer demand and the attractiveness of the stock market.

HFM - NASDAQ 4-Hour Charts

The NASDAQ has formed a bearish breakout and is now again trading below most moving averages on most charts. At the same time, the VWAP and cumulative delta data are pointing towards weakness in order flow. The price is now trading below the support level at $28,773.

As a result, most indicators continue to point towards bearish sentiment, while none of the timeframes are yet to indicate an oversold price. However, in the short term, for the sell signals to be erased, the price will need to rise above $28,932.95. At this level, the price will form a bullish breakout and cross above the key moving averages.

However, if the price remains below this level, the price will remain in the bearish zone for most indicators pointing towards a further decline. Key levels for the decline include the $28,250.00 psychological level and $27,086.00 support level.

• Disappointing earnings from Amazon, Intel, and other major companies weigh on investor sentiment.
• Rising Core PCE inflation and strong US economic data increase expectations of further Fed rate hikes.
• Escalating Middle East tensions push crude oil prices above $104 per barrel.
• NASDAQ breaks below key support levels, with technical indicators suggesting further downside risks.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 2nd November 2026.

US Midterm Elections 2026: Will Stock Markets Rally or Fall?

The US midterm elections take place on Tuesday, 3 November, and investors are preparing for potential volatility across global financial markets. With control of Congress at stake, the outcome could influence government spending, regulation, and economic policy during the remainder of President Trump’s term.

However, historical data suggests that elections do not necessarily determine the longer-term direction of stock markets. In fact, the S&P 500 has demonstrated a remarkably consistent pattern of gains following previous midterm elections.

Could 2026 be different?
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has recorded positive returns in the 12 months following every US midterm election, with an average gain of approximately 15%, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.

The six-month performance has also been historically positive, partly because political uncertainty tends to ease once election results become clear.

Investors generally dislike uncertainty surrounding taxation, government spending, and regulation. Once the political landscape becomes clearer, attention often shifts back towards corporate earnings, economic growth, and monetary policy.

However, historical performance does not guarantee future returns, particularly when market conditions differ significantly from previous election cycles.
There are several reasons why this year’s elections could have a different impact on financial markets.

Firstly, US stock valuations are unusually elevated. The S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio currently stands near 40.7, substantially above its historical average of approximately 20.

Secondly, technology stocks have experienced significant selling pressure as investors question whether substantial investments in artificial intelligence will generate sufficient profits.

The NASDAQ 100 declined 3.5% on Friday, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 7.2%, highlighting the vulnerability of technology companies to changing investor expectations.

Finally, geopolitical tensions involving Iran have pushed oil prices higher, increasing inflationary pressures and complicating the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

These factors suggest that economic fundamentals could have a greater influence on stock market performance than the election results themselves.

The composition of Congress could influence investor expectations regarding future economic policies.

A divided Congress, where political control is shared between Republicans and Democrats, could make major legislative changes more difficult. Historically, this has sometimes coincided with stronger stock market performance because it reduces the likelihood of substantial policy shifts.

Alternatively, Democratic control of both chambers could result in greater legislative and regulatory scrutiny of the administration’s policies, potentially influencing government spending, technology companies, and the energy sector.

However, the relationship between political control and stock market performance is far from straightforward. Economic growth, corporate profitability, and monetary policy have historically played a more significant role in determining longer-term market trends.
The election results could influence several major financial assets, particularly if the outcome differs from market expectations.

Gold: Increased political uncertainty or a deterioration in risk appetite could support demand for safe-haven assets. However, higher Treasury yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes could limit Gold’s potential gains.

US Dollar: The Dollar could react to changes in Treasury yields, fiscal policy expectations, and investor risk appetite. The direction will depend on how markets interpret the election outcome and its implications for economic growth.

Oil: Energy prices could remain particularly sensitive to developments involving Iran. Investors will be monitoring whether US foreign policy changes following the elections increase or reduce geopolitical risks.

US Stock Indices: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 could experience increased volatility as investors reassess fiscal policy, AI regulation, and the broader economic outlook.

Importantly, these reactions are not guaranteed. Markets may have already priced in some potential election outcomes, reducing the impact of the actual results.
The US midterm elections arrive at a challenging time for financial markets.

Although historical trends suggest that equities often strengthen after midterm elections, elevated valuations, persistent inflation risks and uncertainty surrounding AI investments could challenge this pattern.

Investors will also be monitoring Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision.

Ultimately, the elections could trigger short-term volatility, but the sustainability of any market rally will likely depend on corporate earnings, inflation, interest rates and geopolitical developments.

For traders, the important consideration is not simply which party controls Congress, but how the outcome changes market expectations and whether those changes are reflected in asset prices.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 3rd November 2026.

AI Chip Sell-off, Asian Stocks Tumble as NASDAQ Correction Deepens Ahead of US Midterms.

Global stock markets are coming under renewed pressure as concerns over artificial intelligence (AI) valuations, corporate earnings, and political uncertainty weigh on investor sentiment. Asian equities are leading the latest decline, while the NASDAQ 100 has entered correction territory following a prolonged sell-off in technology and semiconductor stocks.

Investors are increasingly questioning whether the substantial capital being invested in AI infrastructure will deliver the returns needed to justify elevated company valuations. These concerns are emerging at a particularly sensitive time, with the US midterm elections adding another layer of uncertainty to the market outlook.

Meanwhile, oil prices remain volatile as investors assess potential peace negotiations between the United States and Iran. Currency markets are also experiencing significant movements following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest interest rate decision and intervention by China’s central bank.

Asian stock markets experienced another difficult trading session on Tuesday, 3 November, with technology-heavy indices recording some of the largest losses.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index excluding Japan declined approximately 1.4%, reaching its lowest level since October 23. South Korea’s KOSPI Index fell by as much as 4.1%, while Taiwan’s benchmark dropped approximately 3.3%.

The declines were largely concentrated in semiconductor companies, which have benefited considerably from the expansion of artificial intelligence over recent years.

Shares in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both declined by more than 4%, reflecting increasing concerns about the sustainability of demand for AI-related technology and the potential profitability of future investments.

The weakness follows significant selling pressure in the United States, where semiconductor stocks have fallen approximately 12% over three consecutive sessions.

More importantly, the NASDAQ 100 has declined by over 10% from its previous peak, entering what is commonly referred to as a technical correction.

A market correction does not necessarily indicate the beginning of a prolonged bearish trend. However, it can signal that investor expectations are changing, particularly when valuations have been supported by strong earnings growth forecasts.

The latest market correction is being driven by a combination of factors rather than a single development.

Firstly, investors are becoming increasingly selective about AI-related investments. Technology companies continue to commit substantial resources to data centres, advanced semiconductors, and computing infrastructure, but questions remain about how quickly these expenditures will generate meaningful returns.

Secondly, elevated valuations have increased the sensitivity of technology stocks to earnings announcements. Even companies reporting revenue growth can experience selling pressure when profit margins, guidance, or investment spending fail to meet expectations.

Apple provides a recent example. The company warned of pressure on its gross margins due to rising memory chip costs, contributing to a decline in its share price.

Finally, uncertainty surrounding the US midterm elections is encouraging some investors to reduce exposure to higher-risk assets.

The combination of these factors is contributing to a broader reassessment of technology stocks, although selling pressure does not necessarily indicate that investors are abandoning the equity market altogether.

The US midterm elections represent another significant event for financial markets, particularly as investors consider the potential implications for fiscal policy, regulation, and government spending.

President Donald Trump’s Republican Party faces a challenge in maintaining control of Congress, with opinion polls indicating that Democrats could gain seats.

The election outcome could influence future government policies, including taxation, technology regulation, energy production, and trade relations.

A divided Congress could make it more difficult for the administration to introduce major legislative changes, potentially limiting certain policy initiatives. Conversely, continued Republican control could provide greater flexibility to pursue the administration’s economic agenda.

Both scenarios could influence Treasury yields, the US Dollar, and equity valuations.

Historically, US equities have often performed positively in the months following midterm elections, as the removal of political uncertainty can support investor confidence.

However, historical performance does not guarantee future results. The current market environment is also being influenced by elevated interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and questions surrounding AI investment returns.

Consequently, traders will be monitoring not only the election results but also the market’s initial reaction and whether buying activity returns to the technology sector.

Oil prices are experiencing considerable volatility as investors attempt to determine whether diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran could lead to a reduction in geopolitical tensions.

Brent crude fell by more than 7% on Monday following signs that both countries could be willing to pursue negotiations.

The possibility of a diplomatic resolution encouraged traders to reassess the geopolitical risk premium incorporated into oil prices.

However, the decline was partially reversed during Tuesday’s Asian session, with Brent crude recovering towards $105 per barrel.

The rebound followed reports of US military strikes targeting Iran’s Qeshm Island, raising concerns that negotiations may not result in an immediate reduction in hostilities.

Oil prices can significantly influence inflation expectations, interest rate forecasts, and corporate profitability.

A sustained decline in energy prices could ease inflationary pressures, potentially improving the outlook for consumers and businesses. Lower inflation could also reduce the need for restrictive monetary policy.

However, a renewed increase in oil prices could have the opposite effect, placing additional pressure on companies through higher operating and transportation costs.

For technology stocks, which are particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations, prolonged inflationary pressure could further complicate the recovery.

Investors will therefore be monitoring developments in the Middle East closely, particularly any indications of a diplomatic agreement or additional disruptions to energy supplies.

The immediate outlook remains uncertain as investors balance the potential for a recovery against persistent economic and geopolitical risks.

Technology stocks may attract renewed buying interest if valuations become more attractive and corporate earnings demonstrate that AI-related investments are delivering sustainable returns.

A reduction in geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices could also support market sentiment by easing inflation concerns.

However, if investors continue to question AI profitability, or if election results and economic data increase uncertainty, further volatility cannot be ruled out.

The key question is whether the recent decline represents a temporary adjustment in market expectations or the beginning of a more prolonged shift away from technology-led growth.

For now, market participants are likely to remain sensitive to economic announcements, political developments and changes in investor risk appetite.

• Asian equities experience significant losses as AI concerns intensify. South Korea's KOSPI fell by as much as 4.1%, while Taiwan’s benchmark declined approximately 3.3%, reflecting renewed selling pressure in semiconductor and technology stocks.
• The Nasdaq 100 enters correction territory ahead of the US midterm elections. A decline of more than 10% from its peak highlights growing concerns about technology valuations, AI investment returns, and the potential implications of political uncertainty.
• Oil prices remain volatile as US-Iran relations influence market sentiment. Brent crude recovered towards $105 after falling more than 7% on Monday, with diplomatic negotiations and ongoing military developments creating uncertainty over future energy prices.
• Currency markets react to central bank decisions and changing interest rate expectations. The Australian Dollar declined despite the RBA’s fifth interest rate increase of 2026, while the Chinese yuan weakened following measures introduced by the People’s Bank of China to moderate its appreciation.

 

[HFM]

Date: 8th October 2026.

Stock Market Today: German Exports Drop, Oil Tops $102


Stock Market Today: German Exports Drop, Oil Tops $102

Key takeaways



German exports unexpectedly fell 0.8% in August, with shipments to the US down 6.3%.
Brent crude jumped above $102 on reports of possible US strikes on Iran and Hurricane Isaias.
Fed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike before year-end.
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.36%, its highest since 2002.
Asian stocks fell across the board after the S&P 500 slipped from its record.
Global stocks slipped further from their record highs on Thursday, October 8, 2026, as oil prices jumped above $102 a barrel, Federal Reserve minutes pointed to another rate hike this year, and fresh data showed German exports unexpectedly shrinking in August.



The pullback began on Wall Street on Wednesday, when the S&P 500 fell 0.2% a day after closing at an all-time high. Thursday's oil spike, driven by a report that the White House is weighing new strikes on Iran, revived inflation fears and kept the 10-year Treasury yield near its highest level since 2002.



In Europe, a surprise drop in German exports, led by a sharp fall in shipments to the United States, added to concerns about the region's growth as the euro hovers near its weakest level in over a year.



German Exports Fall Unexpectedly as US Shipments Drop 6.3%
German exports fell 0.8% in August compared with July, according to data released Thursday by Germany's federal statistics office, Destatis. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.6% increase, making the miss a notable setback for Europe's largest economy.



The biggest drag came from the United States, Germany's most important export market. Shipments to the US fell 6.3% from the previous month. Exports to other EU countries slipped 0.6%, while sales to countries outside the EU declined 1.1%.



There were some bright spots. Exports to the United Kingdom jumped 16.7%, and shipments to China rose 4.7%. However, imports from China surged 11%, far outpacing export growth.



Overall imports rose 0.9% on a calendar- and seasonally adjusted basis. As a result, Germany's trade surplus narrowed to €19.5 billion ($21.82 billion) in August from €21.6 billion in July.



The data adds to pressure on an economy already facing a European energy shock, rising borrowing costs and fiscal stress in neighboring France. A weaker euro would normally help German exporters, but August's figures suggest that soft demand in the US is outweighing any currency advantage for now.



Oil Prices Jump Above $102 on Iran Strike Report and Hurricane Isaias
Brent crude climbed more than 2% early Thursday to around $102.50 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose to about $90. Both benchmarks reversed the declines seen earlier in the week, when signs of recovering Middle East exports and coordinated G7 stock releases had eased supply worries.



The main trigger was a report by The Atlantic, citing unnamed officials, that the White House asked the Pentagon to prepare options for strikes on Iranian targets ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections. According to the report, the scope of the strikes is still under discussion, and a larger operation could follow the vote.



Several other supply risks added to the move:



Tanker attacks: Iran has stepped up strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Houthis: Yemen's Houthis denied reports that they had lost key territory.
Hurricane Isaias: More than 500,000 barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico output has been shut ahead of the storm.
Low inventories: Saudi Aramco warned that global oil stocks are dangerously low and could take two years to rebuild.
On the policy side, the International Energy Agency said its members back faster releases of the emergency stocks pledged in March, prioritizing diesel where possible.



Fed Minutes Signal Another Rate Hike; 10-Year Yield Near 2002 High
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting, released Wednesday, showed that all 19 officials supported last month's quarter-point hike, which lifted the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% and was the Fed's first increase since July 2023. Most officials also judged that another hike would likely be appropriate before the end of the year, with many citing the risk of building price pressures.



Analysts said the minutes made a further move hard to dismiss, even if the Fed waits for more data first. Adding to the concern, the New York Fed reported that consumers' one-year inflation expectations have climbed to a three-year high.



The 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.36% on Wednesday, its highest since 2002, before easing after solid demand at a $39 billion 10-year note auction.It closed near 5.28% and was trading around 5.31% to 5.32% on Thursday.



A 30-year bond auction later today will provide another test of investor appetite for long-dated US debt.



Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian noted that, for the first time in decades, bonds now offer genuine competition for equities. She also warned that elevated investor optimism leaves stocks more vulnerable to disappointment.



Wall Street Retreats From Records; Asian Stocks Fall Across the Board
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both slipped 0.2% from their record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%. The MSCI World Index lost 0.5%. Tech shares cooled ahead of next week's earnings season, as investors focus on whether massive AI spending will justify high valuations.



Asian markets followed Wall Street lower on Thursday, with declines in nearly every major market:



Japan: The Nikkei 225 fell 0.9% to 69,438.77, slipping back below 70,000.
South Korea: The Kospi lost 0.8% to 6,750.25.
Hong Kong: The Hang Seng dipped 0.2% to 24,072.98.
China: The Shanghai Composite edged down 0.1% to 3,840.03 as mainland markets reopened after the holiday.
Australia: The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.6% to 8,677.20.
Taiwan: The Taiex dropped 0.7%.
Samsung Electronics shares fell even after the company estimated a 782.5% surge in third-quarter operating profit to 107.4 trillion won, driven by higher memory chip prices. The reaction suggests that much of the good news was already priced in. US stock futures were mixed.



Euro Near 16-Month Low as France's Fiscal Worries Linger
The euro fell 0.6% on Wednesday to about $1.1194 and was trading near $1.12 on Thursday, close to its weakest level since mid-2025. Pressure is coming from France, where worries about high debt and deficits have pushed the 10-year bond yield to around 4.89%, compared with 3.48% for Germany. Investors have also built up record bets against the single currency. France's finance ministry said it will not change its bond-issuance strategy.



The UK was not spared either. Britain's 10-year gilt yield rose 7 basis points to 5.44%, and the pound slipped to about $1.32. The dollar strengthened, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.3% on Wednesday, while the yen held around 158 per dollar.



In other assets, gold fell 1.4% on Wednesday to about $4,104 an ounce before recovering to around $4,144 on Thursday. Bitcoin dropped 2.5% to roughly $83,460, and ether fell 4.6% to about $2,574.



Corporate News: Deere Slides, SpaceX Debt Talks, Wells Fargo Probe
Shares of Deere & Co. and other farm-equipment makers fell after the Federal Trade Commission and the US Department of Agriculture launched an inquiry into industry practices, including possible anti-competitive behavior.



SpaceX is in talks with banks and investors to raise $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips, which would rank among the largest debt deals tied to the AI buildout. Microsoft revealed pricing for a new flagship laptop powered by Nvidia chips, claiming it beats a comparable Apple model on certain AI tasks.



Wells Fargo is under investigation by the Department of Housing and Urban Development over whether it broke fair-lending laws in a program aimed at boosting homeownership among Black Americans. In a separate incident, China reportedly obtained F-35 fighter jet parts after a UPS employee missed an email warning not to route the shipment through Hong Kong.



What to Watch Today
Investors will focus on today's 30-year Treasury auction, any further news on possible US action against Iran, and the path of Hurricane Isaias through the Gulf of Mexico. With oil above $102, yields near 24-year highs and the Fed leaning toward another hike, the stock market's record run faces its toughest test yet just days before third-quarter earnings season begins.