HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 28th October 2026.

NASDAQ Rebounds ahead of Earnings, US Dollar Surges as Central Banks Surprise Investors.

Market developments and breaking news are unfolding at a rapid pace, driving higher volatility and significant shifts in market trends. The first market surprises come from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Australian inflation data.

Both the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are seeing strong new trends. However, investors are also closely waiting for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, the Bank of Canada's rate decision, the UK’s autumn budget and major technology earnings. The stock market and the US Dollar Index are particularly rising on Wednesday during the Asian session.
The NASDAQ rose 1.15% on Tuesday and continues to rise by a further 0.30% this morning. Due to this rise, the NASDAQ has corrected the previous decline from last week but continues to remain more than 5% lower than its all-time high.

The rebound is due to positive earnings reports from Korean semiconductor and AI-related companies. For this reason, the South Korean KOSPI is trading more than 6.50% higher this morning.

South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix reported quarterly profits more than seven times higher than a year earlier, supporting confidence in demand for advanced memory chips used in AI. A direct connection cannot be seen, but the positive news is improving sentiment towards AI globally. For this reason, the NIKKEI 225, NASDAQ and S&P 500 are edging higher. However, indices which are not exposed to AI continue to struggle.

Another factor supporting the NASDAQ’s upward momentum is growing investor optimism ahead of Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s earnings reports. Markets are anticipating positive financial results from both technology giants, further strengthening bullish sentiment.

Alphabet stock is trading 1.30% higher in after hours and Microsoft 0.10% higher. If both companies beat earnings and revenue expectations while keeping spending under control, both stocks can rise and boost the overall sentiment towards the NASDAQ.

If earnings reports do impress investors, the possibility of the NASDAQ correcting back to its previous high increases. However, risks continue to remain with key central bank decisions and oil prices again rising on Wednesday by more than 2.00%.

Lastly, earnings reports from Tuesday read negative but so far is having a minimal impact on the NASDAQ and S&P 500. Boeing stocks fell more than 10% due to cautious growth expectations. Visa stocks also fell 1.75% due to disappointing earnings.
In terms of technical analysis on the 5-Minute chart, indications remain bullish. The 90-bar simple moving average is best representing the current momentum and trend. While the price remains above this moving average, the indications remain strong. If the price is to drop below $29,716.00 (200-bar simple moving average), indications are likely to shift towards bearish in the short-term and neutral in the medium-term.

The US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day and of the week, with investors turning to the currency as a safe-haven asset. Investors are also pricing in hawkish guidance for December’s Federal Reserve meeting and 2027’s path.

The Federal Reserve is due to announce its rate decision at 18:00 GMT, with the press conference to follow. Markets expect the Fed to hold, partially due to avoiding hiking interest rates before the midterm elections. The pause is not likely to pressure the US Dollar, but markets will be listening closely to how the committee views rates over the next 6 months. A hawkish tone can keep the US Dollar Index comfortable above 102.00 and even move closer to 103.00.

The Swiss Franc is one of the worst-performing currencies of the past week. The USD/CHF is showing a short-term bullish bias on the 15-minute chart, with buyers attempting to maintain upward momentum towards the key psychological level at 0.83400. The MACD suggests positive momentum, although a confirmed bullish crossover on the 15-minute timeframe remains to be verified. From a Bollinger Bands perspective, sustained price action above the middle band and towards the upper band would support further bullish momentum.
The New Zealand Dollar is one of the worst-performing assets of the day and the worst-performing currency. The NZD index has fallen 1.35% after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand chose to pause rather than hike. Previously, market analysts and economists were almost solely anticipating a 0.25% hike.

The shock pause prompted a sudden selloff. Of particular interest is the NZDUSD, which fell instantly to a key support level at 0.55780 and lost all gains from the past 2-weeks. Momentum indicators are indicating bearish price movement, while oscillators and price divergence are pointing towards the price being oversold.

The Australian Dollar, on the other hand, is finding support from higher inflation data. The Australian inflation rate has risen from 4.0% to 4.3%, higher than previous expectations. The AUD is amongst the best-performing currencies of the day so far.

1. Strong Korean semiconductor earnings and optimism ahead of major technology earnings support the NASDAQ’s recovery.
2. The US Dollar reaches a two-week high as investors anticipate hawkish guidance from the Federal Reserve.
3. The New Zealand Dollar declines sharply following the RBNZ’s unexpected decision to leave interest rates unchanged.
4. Higher-than-expected Australian inflation strengthens the AUD and supports expectations of tighter monetary policy.

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

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[HFM]

Date: 8th October 2026.

Stock Market Today: German Exports Drop, Oil Tops $102


Stock Market Today: German Exports Drop, Oil Tops $102

Key takeaways



German exports unexpectedly fell 0.8% in August, with shipments to the US down 6.3%.
Brent crude jumped above $102 on reports of possible US strikes on Iran and Hurricane Isaias.
Fed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike before year-end.
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.36%, its highest since 2002.
Asian stocks fell across the board after the S&P 500 slipped from its record.
Global stocks slipped further from their record highs on Thursday, October 8, 2026, as oil prices jumped above $102 a barrel, Federal Reserve minutes pointed to another rate hike this year, and fresh data showed German exports unexpectedly shrinking in August.



The pullback began on Wall Street on Wednesday, when the S&P 500 fell 0.2% a day after closing at an all-time high. Thursday's oil spike, driven by a report that the White House is weighing new strikes on Iran, revived inflation fears and kept the 10-year Treasury yield near its highest level since 2002.



In Europe, a surprise drop in German exports, led by a sharp fall in shipments to the United States, added to concerns about the region's growth as the euro hovers near its weakest level in over a year.



German Exports Fall Unexpectedly as US Shipments Drop 6.3%
German exports fell 0.8% in August compared with July, according to data released Thursday by Germany's federal statistics office, Destatis. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.6% increase, making the miss a notable setback for Europe's largest economy.



The biggest drag came from the United States, Germany's most important export market. Shipments to the US fell 6.3% from the previous month. Exports to other EU countries slipped 0.6%, while sales to countries outside the EU declined 1.1%.



There were some bright spots. Exports to the United Kingdom jumped 16.7%, and shipments to China rose 4.7%. However, imports from China surged 11%, far outpacing export growth.



Overall imports rose 0.9% on a calendar- and seasonally adjusted basis. As a result, Germany's trade surplus narrowed to €19.5 billion ($21.82 billion) in August from €21.6 billion in July.



The data adds to pressure on an economy already facing a European energy shock, rising borrowing costs and fiscal stress in neighboring France. A weaker euro would normally help German exporters, but August's figures suggest that soft demand in the US is outweighing any currency advantage for now.



Oil Prices Jump Above $102 on Iran Strike Report and Hurricane Isaias
Brent crude climbed more than 2% early Thursday to around $102.50 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose to about $90. Both benchmarks reversed the declines seen earlier in the week, when signs of recovering Middle East exports and coordinated G7 stock releases had eased supply worries.



The main trigger was a report by The Atlantic, citing unnamed officials, that the White House asked the Pentagon to prepare options for strikes on Iranian targets ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections. According to the report, the scope of the strikes is still under discussion, and a larger operation could follow the vote.



Several other supply risks added to the move:



Tanker attacks: Iran has stepped up strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Houthis: Yemen's Houthis denied reports that they had lost key territory.
Hurricane Isaias: More than 500,000 barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico output has been shut ahead of the storm.
Low inventories: Saudi Aramco warned that global oil stocks are dangerously low and could take two years to rebuild.
On the policy side, the International Energy Agency said its members back faster releases of the emergency stocks pledged in March, prioritizing diesel where possible.



Fed Minutes Signal Another Rate Hike; 10-Year Yield Near 2002 High
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting, released Wednesday, showed that all 19 officials supported last month's quarter-point hike, which lifted the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% and was the Fed's first increase since July 2023. Most officials also judged that another hike would likely be appropriate before the end of the year, with many citing the risk of building price pressures.



Analysts said the minutes made a further move hard to dismiss, even if the Fed waits for more data first. Adding to the concern, the New York Fed reported that consumers' one-year inflation expectations have climbed to a three-year high.



The 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.36% on Wednesday, its highest since 2002, before easing after solid demand at a $39 billion 10-year note auction.It closed near 5.28% and was trading around 5.31% to 5.32% on Thursday.



A 30-year bond auction later today will provide another test of investor appetite for long-dated US debt.



Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian noted that, for the first time in decades, bonds now offer genuine competition for equities. She also warned that elevated investor optimism leaves stocks more vulnerable to disappointment.



Wall Street Retreats From Records; Asian Stocks Fall Across the Board
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both slipped 0.2% from their record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%. The MSCI World Index lost 0.5%. Tech shares cooled ahead of next week's earnings season, as investors focus on whether massive AI spending will justify high valuations.



Asian markets followed Wall Street lower on Thursday, with declines in nearly every major market:



Japan: The Nikkei 225 fell 0.9% to 69,438.77, slipping back below 70,000.
South Korea: The Kospi lost 0.8% to 6,750.25.
Hong Kong: The Hang Seng dipped 0.2% to 24,072.98.
China: The Shanghai Composite edged down 0.1% to 3,840.03 as mainland markets reopened after the holiday.
Australia: The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.6% to 8,677.20.
Taiwan: The Taiex dropped 0.7%.
Samsung Electronics shares fell even after the company estimated a 782.5% surge in third-quarter operating profit to 107.4 trillion won, driven by higher memory chip prices. The reaction suggests that much of the good news was already priced in. US stock futures were mixed.



Euro Near 16-Month Low as France's Fiscal Worries Linger
The euro fell 0.6% on Wednesday to about $1.1194 and was trading near $1.12 on Thursday, close to its weakest level since mid-2025. Pressure is coming from France, where worries about high debt and deficits have pushed the 10-year bond yield to around 4.89%, compared with 3.48% for Germany. Investors have also built up record bets against the single currency. France's finance ministry said it will not change its bond-issuance strategy.



The UK was not spared either. Britain's 10-year gilt yield rose 7 basis points to 5.44%, and the pound slipped to about $1.32. The dollar strengthened, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.3% on Wednesday, while the yen held around 158 per dollar.



In other assets, gold fell 1.4% on Wednesday to about $4,104 an ounce before recovering to around $4,144 on Thursday. Bitcoin dropped 2.5% to roughly $83,460, and ether fell 4.6% to about $2,574.



Corporate News: Deere Slides, SpaceX Debt Talks, Wells Fargo Probe
Shares of Deere & Co. and other farm-equipment makers fell after the Federal Trade Commission and the US Department of Agriculture launched an inquiry into industry practices, including possible anti-competitive behavior.



SpaceX is in talks with banks and investors to raise $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips, which would rank among the largest debt deals tied to the AI buildout. Microsoft revealed pricing for a new flagship laptop powered by Nvidia chips, claiming it beats a comparable Apple model on certain AI tasks.



Wells Fargo is under investigation by the Department of Housing and Urban Development over whether it broke fair-lending laws in a program aimed at boosting homeownership among Black Americans. In a separate incident, China reportedly obtained F-35 fighter jet parts after a UPS employee missed an email warning not to route the shipment through Hong Kong.



What to Watch Today
Investors will focus on today's 30-year Treasury auction, any further news on possible US action against Iran, and the path of Hurricane Isaias through the Gulf of Mexico. With oil above $102, yields near 24-year highs and the Fed leaning toward another hike, the stock market's record run faces its toughest test yet just days before third-quarter earnings season begins.