FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

[FreshForexTeam]

Analysis of margin levels for September 22, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4293.47-4347.77, TP1-4402.07, TP2-4561.37.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4390.00–4425.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating buyer weakness.



Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4366.00-4375.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating buyer weakness.

The area of favorable buy prices from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 09/18/2026.

Quote of the upper boundary of zone 1/4–4347.77.

Quote of the upper boundary of zone 1/2–4293.47.

Intraday targets: update of the maximums from 09/18/2026–4402.07.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ–4561.37.



Trading recommendations: buys from the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 4293.47–4347.77, Take Profit 1–4402.07, Take Profit 2–4561.37.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 23, 2026 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:

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For the pound, the key question today is the state of the British economy after the Bank of England's decision to keep rates unchanged. Upcoming preliminary business activity indicators will help assess how resilient domestic demand is against the backdrop of expensive energy. Until their publication, the British currency lacks a confirmed new impulse capable of outweighing the dollar.

The decline in oil prices somewhat alleviates concerns about the UK's energy import costs. At the same time, it may reduce the need for further rate hikes by the Bank of England. Therefore, improved supply conditions alone do not provide clear support for the pound.

The US dollar is supported by Fed concerns about inflation and expectations of further policy tightening. As long as British data do not change the comparative assessment of the two currencies, GBPUSD remains vulnerable to downside risks. Significantly stronger business activity data would become the main risk to this scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3323, SL 1.3353, TP 1.3251

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for September 24, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: FLAT.

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We did not see a continuation of the growth during the past trading day, although Bitcoin tried very hard. In the end, there was not enough strength for this final push and the price went in the opposite direction.

At the same time, the opportunity for another update of the local maximum, along with it, for the full completion of the development of the impulse in wave (v), is still preserved, as there has been no intersection with the first wave yet.

It is quite possible that buyers will attempt to make this move in the near future, so selling is not recommended for now.

In the current situation, it is worth watching how events will develop and acting when a clear picture appears.

Investment idea: FLAT.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Bitcoin above $87,000: buyers are back!​

The cryptocurrency market is back in the spotlight. On September 21, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose above $87,000, continuing its strong recovery after recent fluctuations. The move was not isolated: at the same time, the Nasdaq (#NQ100) once again approached its all-time high, while investor interest in riskier assets increased noticeably.

This makes Bitcoin’s current rise particularly interesting. The market is showing that BTC is now moving not only as an independent crypto asset but also as part of broader risk appetite, alongside the U.S. technology sector.

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Why Is Bitcoin Rising Alongside the Index?​

• The market is buying risk again. After several volatile sessions, investors returned to technology stocks, while the Nasdaq moved back toward record levels. This creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin: when risk appetite increases, cryptocurrencies often attract additional capital inflows.
• Bond yields are falling. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell below 5%. This reduces pressure on risk assets and makes instruments such as BTCUSD and #NQ100 more attractive to investors.
• Oil is no longer putting pressure on the market. Falling oil prices have eased concerns about inflation. The less the market fears another wave of price increases, the more comfortable investors become with growth stocks and cryptocurrencies.
• Strong momentum in technology is supporting crypto as well. Gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks have once again strengthened confidence in the technology sector. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is increasingly trading in the same direction as #NQ100 rather than moving independently.

At this point, not only the move above $87,000 matters, but also the nature of the move. While the cryptocurrency market often used to move independently, Bitcoin is now increasingly responding to the same drivers as the U.S. stock market: bond yields, inflation expectations, and overall investor sentiment.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as risk appetite remains strong, Bitcoin has room for further growth. The current correlation with #NQ100 is supporting buyers: a strong technology sector, falling bond yields, and easing inflation concerns are creating a more favorable environment for BTCUSD. If BTCUSD holds above $87,000, the next psychological target for buyers could be $90,000, while a breakout above this level could open the way toward the $92,000–93,000 area.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 25, 2026 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY remains near elevated levels after several sessions of gains. The pair's main support comes from rising US Treasury yields: the yield on 10-year bonds has approached its highest levels since 2007, and the market has strengthened expectations for a new Fed rate hike. Such dynamics are particularly sensitive for the yen, as the yield differential is once again working in favor of the dollar.

The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate to 1.25% last week, but the decision did not provide sustained strengthening of the yen. Investors focused on the absence of a clear signal regarding further rapid steps and on disagreements within the board. This limits the effect of policy tightening, especially against the backdrop of rising US yields and persistent demand for the US currency.

A restraining factor remains the risk of action by Japanese authorities: following the Bank of Japan meeting, reports emerged about checks on exchange rates, and recent interventions make the market sensitive to yen weakness. Therefore, the upside potential for USD/JPY appears more limited than the dollar's momentum against the euro and pound. With no new confirmed actions from Tokyo yet, the base case still allows for cautious continuation of the pair's growth.

Trading idea: BUY 158.70, SL 158.35, TP 159.40

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Dollar pressures euro and pound: currency pairs hit new lows​

The U.S. dollar is ending the week significantly stronger, but this move is particularly evident across the major currency pairs. On September 25, EURUSD is trading around 1.1370 — its lowest level in two months, while GBPUSD is holding near 1.3220 — close to a three-month low. For the euro, this is already the third consecutive week of declines, while the British pound is having its worst week in roughly four months.

The main momentum is coming from the United States. Following the Fed’s September rate hike, investors are increasingly considering the possibility of further monetary tightening, while a sell-off in U.S. government bonds has pushed long-term yields to their highest levels in more than 20 years. Against this backdrop, the Dollar Index has gained more than 1% this week, but for traders, the more important question is how this move is affecting EURUSD and GBPUSD.

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Why EURUSD continues to decline:​

• U.S. interest rates are becoming more attractive again. The Fed has already raised its rate to 3.75–4.00% and continues to signal the possibility of further tightening. The higher the yield on dollar-denominated assets, the harder it becomes for EURUSD to recover.
• The ECB is taking a more cautious approach. The European regulator has also raised its rate to 2.50%, but its officials are trying to contain expectations of rapid further hikes. Christine Lagarde has emphasized that rising energy prices alone are not enough to automatically justify tighter monetary policy.
• Even strong European data are not helping the euro for now. Eurozone business activity in September came in above expectations, yet EURUSD continued to decline. This shows that the divergence in interest-rate expectations and rising U.S. yields are currently more important to the market than individual positive European indicators.

As a result, EURUSD has moved closer to 1.1370. If selling pressure persists, market attention could shift toward the 1.1300 area, while a return above 1.1450 would be the first sign that the current downward move is losing momentum.

Why GBPUSD is falling even faster:​

• The pound’s interest-rate advantage has narrowed. The Bank of England kept its rate at 3.75%, while the Fed raised the upper bound of its target range to 4.00%. The yield differential is therefore providing less support for the British currency.
• The U.K. economy remains weak. Business activity slowed in September, while demand for workers remains under pressure. This limits the Bank of England’s ability to raise rates too quickly.
• High energy prices create a double challenge. They add to inflationary pressure while simultaneously reducing household real incomes and potentially slowing economic growth further.
• The market is already pricing in further tightening. Several future Bank of England rate hikes are partly reflected in current prices, meaning the pound needs new positive catalysts to sustain a recovery.

As a result, GBPUSD has fallen to around 1.3220 and is down approximately 1.25% since the beginning of the week. A move below 1.3200 could increase pressure on the pair, while a return above 1.3300–1.3350 would be the first sign of a potential recovery.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as U.S. yields remain near multi-year highs, the advantage remains with the dollar, and pressure on EURUSD and GBPUSD may continue.​

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