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Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 21 August 2026
XAUUSD: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50
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Gold starts the week supported by a weaker US dollar and reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Softer US inflation and retail sales data are easing monetary policy pressure, while tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for defensive assets.
At the same time, XAUUSD has already posted a significant advance, increasing the risk of profit-taking. However, central bank demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to support the metal. As long as Federal Reserve expectations remain softer, the base-case scenario allows for a moderate continuation of gold’s advance.
Trading idea: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50
#SP500: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930
#SP500 enters the week near record levels, with the reduced probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September remaining the main positive factor. A strong earnings season also provides support, as most companies in the index have exceeded profit expectations, helping to sustain investor interest in equities.
Risks are linked to elevated US Treasury yields and high oil prices, which could intensify inflation concerns. This week, the market will also assess the Federal Reserve minutes and earnings reports from major retailers. As long as the corporate backdrop remains resilient and interest rate expectations stay softer, the base-case scenario supports further gains in #SP500.
Trading idea: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930
#BRENT: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60
Brent starts the week after a strong advance, with the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz remaining the main driver. Shipping activity in the region has declined noticeably, while the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations is preserving the geopolitical premium and limiting the scope for a sustained decline in oil prices.
The upside is constrained by expectations of higher global supply and the possibility of shipping flows normalizing. However, over the current weekly horizon, the immediate risk to supply still outweighs medium-term pressure. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz does not improve materially, the fundamental backdrop should continue to support Brent.
Trading idea: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60
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