FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

[FreshForexTeam]

The calm before the storm: Crypto is preparing for its next move​

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As of July 29, 2026, the cryptocurrency market remains in wait-and-see mode ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision. BTCUSD is trading around $63,700, ETHUSD near $1,900, and SOLUSD at approximately $73. Open interest continues to rise while funding rates remain neutral, suggesting that traders are building positions without committing to a clear market direction. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV) has fallen into the 34–38% range — a level that has historically preceded significant price moves. The longer the market stays quiet, the stronger the eventual breakout could be.

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BTCUSD: Institutional investors remain cautious. Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains inconsistent. Strong inflows recorded on July 20–22 were followed by outflows on July 23–24, while net outflows narrowed to $11.6 million on July 27. Although selling pressure has eased, there is still no clear sign of sustained institutional buying.

ETHUSD: Strong technology, weak demand. Ethereum continues to underperform Bitcoin. After $70.7 million in ETF outflows on July 24, funds attracted only $11.7 million on July 27, indicating that investors are returning cautiously. The Fusaka network upgrade launched in May has significantly improved Ethereum’s scalability, but stronger technology alone has not yet been enough to offset the market’s limited appetite for risk.

SOLUSD: Risk appetite remains the key driver. Solana continues to attract institutional interest, with cumulative inflows into SOL ETFs reaching $1.14 billion. However, only $1 million of new inflows was recorded on July 27, highlighting the market’s cautious stance. Historically, Solana tends to react more aggressively to changes in investor sentiment, making Bitcoin’s next move a key factor for SOLUSD.

What could move the market?

Today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to be the main catalyst for cryptocurrency markets. Investors are split between expectations of unchanged rates and the possibility of a more hawkish policy stance. However, the accompanying statement may prove even more important than the decision itself, as it will influence both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. A more dovish tone could support Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and lift Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD) alongside it. Conversely, a hawkish message or a stronger U.S. dollar could trigger another wave of selling across the crypto market.

According to FreshForex analysts, today’s calm should not be mistaken for inactivity — it may simply be the market preparing for its next major move. Experienced traders know that periods of low volatility often create the foundation for the strongest trends.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for July 30, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 64100, SL 62900, TP 68900

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There were no significant developments in Bitcoin during the previous trading session. The price continued to trade confidently within the expanding range, remaining near its lower boundary.

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As a result, the previously discussed bullish outlook remains unchanged. The expected rally is still likely to be driven by the development of the final fifth wave of the leading diagonal.

The completion of this move would also mark the end of Wave 1, after which a corrective pullback is expected to develop, most likely in the form of a simple zigzag.

Under these conditions, the current market environment continues to favor long positions.

Investment idea: BUY 64100, SL 62900, TP 68900.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 31, 2026 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

The Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate unchanged at 1%, providing the market with no new reason for a sustained strengthening of the yen. One board member supported a rate increase, while the central bank maintained the possibility of further action if inflation risks intensify. However, the decision to leave the rate unchanged supported a recovery in USDJPY after the sharp decline during the previous session.

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The interest rate differential remains the main factor supporting the dollar. The Federal Reserve’s rate stands within the 3.50–3.75% range, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury remains above 4.6%. Under these conditions, interest rate differential trades remain attractive, while the absence of immediate tightening by the Bank of Japan limits demand for the yen.

The main risk to the USDJPY buying scenario remains confirmed action by the Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market and the possibility of renewed intervention if the yen weakens again. This factor could trigger a sharp reversal, meaning that the pair’s upside potential is not one-sided. Nevertheless, following the Bank of Japan’s decision, the current fundamental momentum continues to favor a further recovery in USDJPY.

Trading idea: BUY 160.80, SL 160.25, TP 161.90

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[FreshForexTeam]

Earnings season splits major tech stocks​

Major technology companies reported strong revenue growth, particularly in cloud services, advertising, and digital products. However, the market reaction has been mixed. Some companies have demonstrated that heavy investments are already supporting both revenue and profitability. Others have raised concerns, as rising costs put pressure on future financial stability.

Investors are no longer focusing solely on revenue figures. The key question now is how quickly investments in artificial intelligence, data centers, and new infrastructure will pay off. Companies showing clear returns are receiving market support, while high spending without proportional profit growth may increase pressure on stock prices.

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Key drivers of U.S. stocks:

• #Microsoft — Azure revenue grew by 43%, confirming strong returns on large-scale investments
• #Amazon — AWS sales increased by 37%, strengthening confidence in its investment strategy
• #Meta (Facebook) — total revenue rose by 28%, but heavy infrastructure spending significantly reduced free cash flow
• #Google — cloud revenue surged by 82%, though rising costs continue to keep investors cautious
• #Apple — quarterly revenue increased by 16%; strong sales support the company, but supply constraints may limit future growth

These companies reflect different outcomes of the same investment race. #Microsoft and #Amazon appear more resilient due to rapid cloud growth. #Google is also expanding its cloud business but with higher spending. Meta remains more dependent on advertising and has yet to monetize cloud infrastructure. #Apple is less involved in aggressive spending but remains sensitive to supply chain conditions.

According to FreshForex analysts, the coming months will depend heavily on earnings quality. The market will continue comparing revenue growth with development costs. The key factor is whether companies can maintain investment momentum without weakening financial stability. Investor appetite for higher-risk assets will also play a role. Even in a positive scenario, managing risk and preparing for changing market conditions remains essential.

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