HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 26th August 2026.

Oman-Iran Talks Pressure Oil Prices, but Many Investors Remain Unpersuaded.

Crude oil prices continue to fall for a third day as hopes for the Strait of Hormuz reopening rise. At the same time, economic sanctions placed on Iran are weaker than originally feared, and US inventories rise supporting further downward price movement.

Nonetheless, investors continue to remain sceptical over a long-lasting peace deal. For this reason, the possibility of crude oil’s bearish trend losing steam remains. Key factors influencing price volatility are the Core PCE Price Index, GDP, and speeches at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the week.
Iran and Oman have agreed on the outline of a temporary navigation corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, this plan includes a joint mine-clearing and further technical talks on shipping security. However, the Strait has not fully reopened yet, and vessel traffic remains well below normal levels. The development has still reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets, though major risks remain.

The US has announced secondary sanctions on Iran and its trading partners. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said restrictions will target individuals, vessels, and companies involved in buying Iranian oil or supporting its nuclear and missile programmes. At the same time, President Trump said no talks with Iran are planned, increasing fears of renewed conflict.

Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio, has told European allies that the attacks have ‘stopped for now’. This also follows what most analysts believe: that the Strait will remain partially closed and tensions are likely to rise again. However, traders cannot be certain when tensions will again rise, affecting oil prices.
The US Dollar and interest rates can play an important role in the pricing of crude oil. For today’s US data, markets are expecting Core PCE inflation to rise by around 0.2% month-on-month, with the annual rate around 3.2-3.3%. Meanwhile, the Q2 GDP second estimate is expected to be revised to 1.5%

For the Dollar, Core PCE is likely to be the more important release for traders. This is because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. A reading above expectations would increase pressure on the Fed to consider higher rates, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the Dollar higher. If the GDP data also rise, the possibility of a rate hike increases substantially. A reading below expectations would reduce rate-hike expectations and could weaken the Dollar.

A more expensive Dollar and expectations of an interest rate hike can pressure oil prices, while a weaker Dollar may support crude oil

HFM - Crude Oil Daily Chart

WTI is trading close to $80 after falling sharply from weekly highs, with the short-term technical bias turning bearish. The price has broken below the $82 support area and is trading below its key moving averages, while the MACD remains negative. The RSI is around 34, showing strong selling pressure but also suggesting that the market is getting closer to oversold conditions.

Medium-term timeframes are also indicating downward price movement, however, the support level at $78.60 is a risk for sellers. If the price remains below the 200-bar moving average, at $81.25 on the 5-minute timeframe, sell signals may remain active.

• Oil continues to decline as hopes rise for a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US sanctions proving less severe than feared, and higher US inventories also support lower oil prices.
• Geopolitical risk remains high, as traders expect US-Iran tensions could quickly escalate in the future, potentially limiting further declines.
• Core PCE and GDP are key upcoming catalysts: stronger US data could support the Dollar and rate-hike expectations, adding pressure on oil, while weaker data could support prices.
• WTI remains technically bearish near $80, trading below key moving averages, although support around $78.60 may limit further downside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

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[HFM]

Date: 28th August 2026.

Markets Brace for Jackson Hole: USD, Gold, Oil, and Stocks in Focus.

Global markets are entering the final trading sessions of August with investors focused on one major event: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.

The US Dollar is trading close to a one-week high, Treasury yields remain elevated, Gold has come under pressure, and US stock futures have turned cautious after the latest NVIDIA-driven technology rally. At the same time, oil prices are heading towards a sizeable weekly decline as developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz reduce some of the geopolitical risk premium.

For traders, these themes are closely connected. Changes in interest rate expectations and bond yields could quickly influence currencies, commodities, and global stock indices.

The US Dollar Index is trading around the 99.20 area, close to its highest level in a week.

EUR/USD has slipped towards $1.1645, while GBP/USD is trading near $1.3588. USD/JPY has also moved higher towards 159.55 as the Japanese Yen gives back some of its recent intervention-driven gains.

The Dollar's recent strength largely reflects caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium and renewed expectations that US interest rates may need to remain high.

Recent inflation data has shown that price pressures remain persistent, while several Federal Reserve officials have continued to express concerns over inflation.

Markets are currently pricing approximately a 35% probability of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, with expectations for tightening increasing considerably towards the end of the year.

This puts significant attention on Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole appearance.

Warsh is scheduled to speak at 14:00 GMT, and traders will be searching for clues about three major issues:

• Inflation and whether the Federal Reserve believes price pressures remain too high.
• The possibility of additional interest rate increases.
• How the Fed views the recent volatility in US Treasury markets.

The key issue is not necessarily whether Warsh explicitly signals a hike. He has resisted forward guidance. Traders will instead look for his reaction function: what would make the Fed tighten, how concerned it is about inflation, and how it views the recent bond market volatility. That makes the tone of the speech particularly important.

A hawkish message could strengthen rate-hike expectations and provide further support for the Dollar. However, Warsh has historically been reluctant to provide explicit forward guidance, creating another potential risk: markets may react negatively if his speech fails to reduce uncertainty surrounding Fed policy.

The last scenario is particularly interesting. Silence may not be neutral. With markets already uncomfortable about inflation and US fiscal policy, insufficient guidance could push the term premium and long-term yields higher.

US Treasury yields remain one of the most important indicators for traders.

The US 10-year yield is trading close to 4.68%, while the 30-year yield remains above 5%.

Higher yields generally support the Dollar but can create pressure on Gold and stocks by increasing borrowing costs and making risk-free government debt more attractive.

The situation has become even more important after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to increase purchases of longer-term government bonds in an attempt to improve liquidity and reduce pressure on borrowing costs.

This creates an unusual policy environment.

The Federal Reserve remains concerned about inflation, while the Treasury is simultaneously attempting to reduce pressure at the longer end of the bond market.

How Warsh addresses this environment could therefore be just as important as what he says about the next Fed rate decision.
Gold has slipped towards $4,575 per ounce, with the stronger Dollar and elevated Treasury yields limiting demand.

The precious metal could remain highly sensitive to Warsh’s comments.

If markets increase expectations for another Fed rate hike, Treasury yields could move higher and strengthen the Dollar, potentially adding pressure on Gold.

On the other hand, any indication that the Fed is becoming more concerned about economic growth or financial stability could push yields lower and create renewed support for the precious metal.

For Gold traders, the reaction in the US Dollar Index and 10-year Treasury yield may provide some of the clearest signals following the speech.

Oil is experiencing a different form of pressure.

Brent crude has fallen towards $89 per barrel and is on track for a weekly decline of more than 5%.

The main driver has been progress between Iran and Oman over the management of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing fears of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

However, geopolitical risks have not disappeared.

The US remains reluctant to return to previous agreement terms with Iran, sanctions remain in place, and uncertainty surrounding the Strait continues.

This leaves oil vulnerable to sudden geopolitical moves in either direction.

Oil prices are also relevant to the broader monetary policy outlook. Another major increase in energy prices could fuel inflation, strengthen expectations for higher interest rates, and place further upward pressure on Treasury yields.
Technology stocks remain supported by strong enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence.

NVIDIA shares surged almost 9% following strong results and an optimistic outlook for continued AI infrastructure spending.

However, the initial boost to broader markets has started to fade as investors turn their attention back towards interest rates.

Another important trend is emerging beneath the AI rally.

Companies have issued approximately $72 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds this year, with AI-related businesses among the major issuers.

Strong demand allows companies to raise capital without paying traditional interest, as investors instead receive the potential opportunity to convert their bonds into shares.

But the scale of AI investment also highlights a growing challenge: funding massive infrastructure expansion in an environment of historically high borrowing costs.

This makes Treasury yields increasingly important for technology traders.

Strong AI earnings may continue supporting the NASDAQ, but persistently high yields could restrict valuations and increase financing costs across the sector.
The immediate focus is likely to remain on four connected markets.

• US Dollar: A more hawkish Fed outlook could extend the Dollar’s recent recovery.
• Treasury yields: The 10-year yield around 4.68% remains an important gauge of interest rate and inflation expectations.
• Gold: Higher yields and a stronger Dollar could maintain pressure, while falling yields may provide support.
• Stock indices: AI optimism continues to support technology shares, but high borrowing costs remain a significant risk.

Meanwhile, oil remains the major geopolitical wildcard, with developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz capable of quickly changing inflation expectations.

With monetary policy, inflation, geopolitics, and AI investment all influencing markets simultaneously, volatility could remain elevated as August draws to a close.

For traders, following the relationship between Treasury yields, the US Dollar and risk sentiment may be particularly important in identifying the next major market move.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets