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Sepekan Mendatang: Fokus Pada Perkembangan AS-Korea Utara, PDB & NFP AS

Rupiah sedikit menguat terhadap Dolar yang secara umum menguat. USDIDR sedikit di bawah 14130 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Kalender ekonomi pasar Indonesia relatif sepi pekan ini sehingga arah Rupiah mungkin ditentukan oleh faktor eksternal. Apabila Rupiah terus menguat mendekati level psikologis 14000, optimisme bahwa kenaikan suku bunga BI berdampak positif pada Rupiah akan meningkat.

Sentimen membaik karena Korea Utara menawarkan perdamaian

Setelah Presiden Donald Trump mendadak membatalkan pertemuan bulan Juni bersama Kim Jong-Un di Singapura, Korea Utara di luar dugaan menawarkan perdamaian.

Korea Utara menyatakan tetap terbuka untuk memberi "waktu dan kesempatan" untuk Amerika Serikat dan berkenan bertemu dengan Trump "kapan saja, bagaimana saja". Korea Utara juga mengatakan bahwa pertemuan ini "sangat penting" untuk memperbaiki hubungan AS-Korut, sehingga masih ada harapan bahwa pertemuan akan dapat dilaksanakan. Pasar akan sangat memperhatikan bagaimana respons pemerintahan Trump terhadap pesan perdamaian Korea Utara. Sentimen risiko dapat membaik apabila ada isyarat bahwa ketegangan antara AS-Korea Utara semakin berkurang.

PDB mengecewakan, Pound melemah

Bulan trading ini sungguh berat bagi Pound seiring dengan semakin tipisnya ekspektasi bahwa Bank of England akan meningkatkan suku bunga di bulan Agustus.

Sentimen terhadap Pound memburuk pekan lalu karena laporan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris turun hingga ke level terendah sejak 2012. Pertumbuhan PDB Inggris melambat menjadi 0.1% di kuartal pertama 2018 menurut estimasi kedua. Selera beli Pound langsung menurun. Dari sudut pandang teknikal, GBP tetap bearish di grafik harian karena secara konsisten level tertinggi yang lebih rendah (LH) dan level terendah yang lebih rendah (LL). Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah 1.3400 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju 1.3320 dan kemudian 1.3250.

Dollar stabil menjelang rilis PDB & NFP Amerika Serikat

Dolar sepertinya akan tetap stabil terhadap sejumlah mata uang mayor menjelang rilis PDB dan NFP AS yang sudah dinantikan.

Dolar berpotensi semakin menguat apabila PDB dan NFP sama-sama melampaui ekspektasi pasar. Dari sudut pandang teknis, Indeks Dolar tetap sangat bullish di grafik harian. Selisih suku bunga semakin lebar dan menguntungkan Dolar. Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juni juga semakin tinggi. Karena itu, Dolar sepertinya masih akan terus menguat.

Apakah reli minyak sudah mencapai akhir?

Kemungkinan OPEC dan Rusia melonggarkan batasan produksi guna mengimbangi penurunan produksi Venezuela dan potensi penurunan ekspor Iran membuat harga minyak berpotensi melemah.

Aksi harga mengisyaratkan bahwa bulls mungkin kesulitan untuk mendapat dukungan dari faktor risiko geopolitik untuk mempertahankan reli saat ini. Spekulasi penurunan pasokan global adalah hal yang sangat mengangkat harga minyak sebelumnya, jadi faktor fundamental dapat berubah apabila OPEC melonggarkan batasan produksi. Harga minyak terancam melemah karena potensi kenaikan produksi Rusia, OPEC, dan minyak serpih AS yang mengakibatkan kekhawatiran terjadinya oversuplai.

Dari aspek teknis, minyak mentah WTI berisiko merosot menuju $60 apabila bullsgagal mempertahankan kendali di atas $70.



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Bank Indonesia tingkatkan suku bunga lagi di bulan Mei

Bank Indonesia mengambil langkah tegas untuk membantu Rupiah menghadapi apresiasi Dolar dengan meningkatkan suku bunga kedua kalinya bulan ini.

Bi meningkatkan seven-day repo rate menjadi 4.75% dari 4.5% guna menanggulangi arus keluar modal. Kenaikan suku bunga dapat membantu Rupiah, tapi siklus kenaikan agresif ini juga berpotensi memberi dampak negatif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi. Suku bunga baru akan berlaku mulai 31 Mei dan USDIDR mungkin akan menguji level 13940 kemudian 13900.

Euro tertekan oleh kekhawatiran "Italexit"

Beberapa hari ini adalah waktu yang sulit bagi Euro yang merosot hingga level terendah sejak Juli 2017 karena perkembangan kekacauan politik di Italia.

Media mengatakan bahwa PM sementara Italia Carlo Cottarelli gagal menggalang dukungan dari sejumlah partai politik terbesar sehingga Presiden Sergio Mattarella mungkin membubarkan Parlemen dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Kemungkinan pemilu baru dapat memperkuat posisi partai Euroskeptis dan memicu referendum Eropa membuat investor akan terus waspada. Sentimen terhadap Euro masih akan bearish dan karena kemungkinan "Italexit" semakin besar dan dikhawatirkan membahayakan masa depan Uni Eropa, sehingga Euro sepertinya akan terus melemah.

Perlu diperhatikan bahwa depresiasi Euro dapat sedikit membantu upaya ECB untuk mencapai target inflasi 2% dengan menjadikan ekspor lebih bersaing dan impor lebih mahal. Walau demikian, ketidakstabilan politik di Eropa berpengaruh negatif kepada pertumbuhan dan meningkatkan kemungkinan bahwa program pelonggaran kuantitatif akan dilanjutkan di tahun 2019.

Dari sudut pandang teknikal, EURUSD tetap bearish di grafik harian walaupun harga memantul menuju 1.1600 pagi ini. Level support sebelumnya di 1.1600 dapat berubah menjadi resistance dinamis yang mendorong penurunan lebih lanjut menuju 1.1450. Sebaliknya, breakout di atas 1.1600 dapat membuka jalan menuju 1.1750.

Sorotan mata uang - GBPUSD

Pound merosot tajam terhadap Dolar karena kekhawatiran pecahnya Uni Eropa.

Penghindaran risiko karena gejolak politik Italia mendorong investor untuk mencari aman sehingga Pound melemah. Ketidakpastian Brexit dan turunnya ekspektasi kenakan suku bunga BoE memperburuk situasi bagi Pound, sehingga mata uang ini berpotensi semakin tergelincir. Dari sudut pandang teknikal, GBPUSD tertekan di grafik harian dan mingguan. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah 1.3340 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju 1.3170 kemudian 1.3100.

Sorotan Komoditas - Minyak Mentah WTI

Harga minyak agak stabil di hari Rabu setelah merosot tajam dalam beberapa hari terakhir karena kemungkinan bahwa OPEC dan Rusia akan melonggarkan pembatasan produksi karena persediaan minyak mentah global menurun.

Rencana OPEC dan Rusia untuk meningkatkan produksi berpotensi membangkitkan kekhawatiran oversuplai dan mengundang bears, sehingga harga minyak mentah WTI terancam terus melemah. Kita perlu memperhatikan pula bahwa faktor risiko geopolitik seperti sanksi terhadap Iran, penurunan produksi Venezuela, dan ketegangan di Timur Tengah dapat memperkuat harga minyak di jangka pendek. Walau begitu, potensi kenaikan produksi Rusia dan OPEC dan peningkatan produksi minyak serpih AS dapat menjadi rintangan bagi minyak di jangka yang lebih panjang.




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Trade war fears to dominate market moves this week

Intense G7 meeting

After imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on its closest allies, the U.S. will be facing enormous criticism at the G7 summit on Friday in Quebec or, as the French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire likes to call it, “G6 plus one.”

“When you’re almost 800 Billion Dollars a year down on Trade, you can’t lose a Trade War! The U.S. has been ripped off by other countries for years on Trade, time to get smart!” Donald Trump

Whether President Trump is playing a smart strategic game or is seriously considering getting into a trade war remains unknown, but the probability of a full-blown trade war has undoubtedly increased significantly.

The summit is due to take place after the U.S. and China trade negotiations ended on Sunday without any significant progress made. In fact, China warned the U.S. that any move to implement tariffs on Chinese products would ruin the negotiations.

Although markets in Asia are rallying after the U.S employment report released on Friday showed a robust surge in numbers and new elections were avoided in Italy, this optimism will soon disappear if the Trump administration pulls the trigger on the threatened tariffs on $50bn worth of Chinese exports. So, keep a close eye on Trump’s Twitter account for updates.


Europe’s Politics and data to be in focus

The Euro struggled last week, with Italian and Spanish political turmoil sending the single currency to its lowest level since July 2017. The compromise reached between the Italian President and the populist coalition prevented further losses as a new election seems to be off the cards for now. This relief was reflected in Italian bonds where 2-year yields fell 200 basis points from Tuesday’s high. However, the Euro’s recovery may be short-lived if the new Italian government moves ahead with its proposed massive spending agenda and tax reductions. These actions will not only create conflict with Brussels but will also invite credit rating agencies to cut their debt ratings.

On the data front, the Eurozone Services PMI is likely to confirm that the economy continued to slow down as it entered Q2. Another round of negative economic releases will lead the ECB to postpone ending QE and thus drag the Euro further. The UK services PMI, Germany’s industrial production and factory orders will also be in focus this week.



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Oil slips further ahead of OPEC meeting

Oil markets have suffered another blow today as US oil inventories showed an increase of 2.07M barrels (-2.1M exp), while at the same time US gasoline inventories also showed a strong increase to 4.6M (0.5M exp). This has come as a bit of surprise for the market which had been expected drawdown's and probably more so for OPEC and its allies, as they look to ramp up production to find an equilibrium and maximize profits from the high oil price we have at present. Certainly the OPEC meeting due out on the 22nd of June will be very interesting, where it is expected that Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue their ramping up of prices. Many are expecting that with Iran out of the picture this does give the Saudis and Russia the chance to put production up even if the price if oil is not doing well.

On the charts it has been very bearish for oil as of late. So far we saw a peak for oil at 72.81, followed by oil falling back down to earth in a hurry - not surprising given that oil trending very hard, and it does not always continue. This bullish buy hit resistance at 65.75 when trying to claw back some ground against the bears and it really does look like it may struggle to breakthrough this level in the interim. For bearish traders feasting off the data the next levels of support can be found at 64.17, with the potential to extend even lower to 62.65 in the long run. I would also focus on the long term potential trend line as well, which could propel oil to something further in the long. Looking at the bulls however resistance as mentioned above can be found at 65.75 and 67.45 in the long run, but it may take some cracking to get them through given the OPEC meeting.

One of the other key winners today was the NZD which enjoyed the risk sentiment of the market as it started. So far the despite positive data the US market has enjoyed, it has translated into more foreign investment outside the US in other currencies and the NZD and AUD were no exception today.

Looking at the charts we can see that the NZD has cracked through the important 70 cent barrier mark and is climbing higher, but has stumbled against resistance at 0.7035. With bullish traders looking to assert themselves it would seem that the NZDUSD could end up taking on the next level of resistance at 0.7171 if the bulls stay in control. On the flip side support still remains at 0.6966 and 0.6819 in the long run.




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Trade war fears ease… but for how long?

Global stocks have bounced back to life after China’s central bank calmed markets by urging investors to “stay calm and rational”.

While this move by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could support risk sentiment and push equity markets higher in the short term, gains are likely to be limited. With trade war fears still a recurrent market theme that continues to weigh on sentiment, investors may start questioning the sustainability of the stock market rally. Markets are likely to remain cautious with any signs of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China potentially sparking a renewed wave of risk aversion.

Bank of England policy meeting in focus

Today’s main event risk for the British Pound will be the outcome of the Bank of England policy meeting, which is widely expected to conclude with monetary policy left unchanged.

With the BoE expected to keep interest rates on hold, investors will most likely closely scrutinize the policy statement and MPC vote count for insight on rate hike timings beyond June. The Pound could weaken if the central bank expresses concerns over Brexit related uncertainty and political risk negatively impacting growth. Pound weakness may remain a dominant market theme if Brexit uncertainty results in the BoE repeatedly delaying monetary policy normalization.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the GBPUSD is bearish on the daily charts. The solid daily close below 1.3200 could invite a further decline towards 1.3130 and 1.3100, respectively.

Currency spotlight – Dollar

The Dollar has scope to extend gains against a basket of major currencies amid market expectations over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates at least two more times this year.

Away from the fundamentals, the technical picture remains heavily bullish with prices hovering near an 11-month peak as of writing. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows, while prices are trading firmly above the 200 daily Simple Moving Average. A firm daily close above the 95.00 level could open a path towards 95.35 and 96.00, respectively.

Commodity spotlight – Oil

There is a growing sense of uncertainty mounting ahead of Friday’s OPEC meeting, with markets now re-evaluating if an output increase could still be on the table.

While Saudi Arabia and Russia are pushing OPEC and its allies to raise production, other members including Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela have opposed such a move. With Iran already stating that it was likely to reject any agreement that raised output, this could be a fractious meeting between oil producers in Vienna. Whatever the outcome of the OPEC meeting, it could have a lasting impacting on oil prices.



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Investor abaikan isu perang dagang, Rupiah menguat

Rupiah memasuki pekan perdagangan baru dengan positif karena Dolar AS melemah. Perhatian investor akan tertuju pada data penjualan ritel Indonesia yang dijadwalkan untuk dirilis di hari Rabu. Data penjualan bulan Mei bisa memberi wawasan baru mengenai keadaan ekonomi Indonesia. Jika data aktual lebih besar dari proyeksi pasar yaitu 4.4% maka Rupiah berpotensi semakin menguat.

Ketegangan dagang mendominasi tajuk utama pekan lalu, namun investor Wall Street mengabaikan isu perang dagang dan menyambut gembira laporan lapangan kerja Amerika Serikat. 213000 lapangan kerja baru dibuka di ekonomi AS di bulan Juni, jauh melampaui proyeksi 195000. Sementara itu, data Mei ditingkatkan dari 223000 menjadi 244000. Pertumbuhan upah sedikit lebih rendah dari ekspektasi 2.8% YoY yaitu 2.7%. Walau demikian, pertumbuhan lapangan kerja yang baik dan rendahnya inflasi upah adalah kombinasi positif untuk saham karena alasan sederhana. Pertumbuhan lapangan kerja yang baik mencerminkan kekuatan ekonomi, inflasi upah yang rendah memberi fleksibilitas ekstra untuk Federal Reserve untuk memperketat kebijakan.

Keadaan positif bisa terhenti kapan saja apabila investor yakin bahwa ketegangan dagang bergerak ke arah yang mengkhawatirkan. Sejauh ini, AS telah memberlakukan tarif $34 miliar untuk impor dari China, begitu pula China terhadap impor AS. Tahap ini jelas sudah terefleksikan pada harga. Meninjau kinerja saham Asia hari ini, investor sepertinya tidak berpendapat bahwa perang dagang akan terjadi. Walau begitu, Presiden Trump sulit ditebak sehingga momentum naik ini sepertinya akan terbatas, terutama untuk saham siklikal, hingga ada kejelasan mengenai isu perdagangan.

Di pasar FX, Indeks Dolar merosot ke level terendah sejak 14 Juni yaitu di bawah 94 karena pertumbuhan upah yang stagnan. Trader perlu memantau rilis Indeks Harga Konsumen AS di hari Jumat yang diperkirakan akan meningkat 2.9% YoY yang merupakan peningkatan tahunan terbesar sejak Februari 2012. Apabila IHK melampaui acuan 3%, maka Dolar berpotensi sangat menguat karena ini berarti Fed tidak memiliki pilihan selain semakin memperketat kebijakan.

Harga minyak menguat di awal pekan ini walaupun jumlah sumur minyak aktif di AS meningkat sebanyak 5 buah pada pekan lalu. Tweet Trump yang mendorong OPEC untuk meningkatkan produksi terbukti tidak terlalu berpengaruh untuk menurunkan harga minyak sejauh ini. Backwardation terus meningkat di kurva futures Brent dan WTI, merefleksikan ketatnya pasar minyak. Perhatian akan tertuju pada produksi OPEC bulan ini, terutama dari Arab Saudi, setelah Trump mendorong OPEC untuk mengambil langkah menurunkan harga minyak.

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BI pertahankan suku bunga acuan, Rupiah melemah

Rupiah anjlok ke level terendah tahunan baru terhadap Dolar AS setelah Bank Indonesia memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga sebesar 5.25% di bulan Juli.

Sungguh mengkhawatirkan melihat Rupiah terus tertekan walaupun BI berusaha memperketat kebijakan moneter secara agresif selama dua bulan terakhir. Walaupun BI mempertahankan "posisi hawkish", namun tidak banyak membantu Rupiah yang sangat dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor eksternal. Dolar yang berkibar tetap menjadi tema dominan di pasar di tengah ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS dan ketegangan dagang global yang memengaruhi sentimen. Karena itu, Rupiah dan banyak mata uang pasar berkembang lainnya dapat semakin melemah.

Para trader teknikal akan terus mengamati bagaimana USDIDR bertahan di atas level psikologis 14000. Harga sudah mencapai 14400 sehingga level kunci berikutnya adalah di kisaran 14750.

Penjualan ritel Inggris mengecewakan, Pound terpukul

Pound langsung diserang oleh para penjual setelah rilis penjualan ritel merosot -0.5% di bulan Juni, jauh dari ekspektasi pasar 0.2%.

Pertumbuhan upah mengecewakan dan inflasi melambat. Apakah saat ini tepat untuk meningkatkan suku bunga? Ekspektasi pasar mengenai kenaikan suku bunga Bank of England bulan depan saat ini mungkin sudah sangat menipis dan ini mungkin sudah terefleksikan pada aksi harga Pound yang bearish. Pound sangat sensitif terhadap spekulasi kebijakan suku bunga, sehingga mata uang ini dapat semakin melemah ketika investor berpendapat bahwa kenaikan suku bunga kuartal ini menjadi lebih tidak mungkin terjadi.

GBPUSD merosot ke level terendah 10 bulan di bawah 1.2990 pagi ini dan dapat semakin melemah selama bears mempertahankan kendali di bawah 1.3000. Jika Dolar terus menguat, level penting berikutnya dapat ditemukan di kisaran 1.2950.

Emas tergelincir ke level terendah tahunan baru

Pekan trading ini mungkin sangat bearish untuk emas yang merosot ke level terendah tahun ini di tengah apresiasi Dolar.

Depresiasi beberapa hari terakhir ini menyoroti bahwa emas tetap sangat sensitif dan berkorelasi negatif dengan Dolar. Ekspektasi pasar semakin tinggi bahwa Federal Reserve akan meningkatkan suku bunga dua kali lagi tahun ini sehingga emas tetap menjadi target empuk bagi investor bearish. Emas dapat semakin terpukul tanpa ampun oleh Dolar yang menguat secara umum pekan ini.

Dari sisi teknis saja, emas bearish di grafik harian. Bears harian tetap memegang kendali penuh di bawah level $1236. Emas sudah menembus di bawah $1220 sehingga momentum turun dapat membuka jalan menuju $1200.

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Bank of Japan unwilling to shift gears yet

After weeks of speculation that the Bank of Japan may begin to adjust its stimulus program, the central bank once again decided not to join the global trend towards tighter policies.

The BoJ left its overnight interest rates unchanged at -0.1% and reiterated that it would resume buying Japanese Government Bonds to keep the 10-year yields around 0%. The bank may allow for more flexible movement on the 10-year bonds, however this isn’t considered a significant shift in policy.

The BoJ also made tweaks to its ETF purchases, as it increased the composition of TOPIX-linked ETFs while shifting slightly away from the Nikkei 225 Index, but maintained its annual pace of ETF buying.

It seems the Bank of Japan will be the last major central bank to pull the trigger on tightening policy as the Japanese economy continues to struggle with stubbornly low inflation levels. This should allow further widening in spreads between Japan’s bonds and other global bonds towards year-end, suggesting that the Yen is likely to remain under pressure for the near future.

The Federal Reserve is next in line to announce policy on Wednesday. That’s why today’s Core Personal Expenditure figures carry significant importance. If Core PCE came in at 2% or above, it would reinforce expectations for two more rates hikes in 2018. Many traders want to know whether President Donald Trump’s criticism of the Fed will lead to a change in language; I believe there will be no change in guidance and the Fed will continue sending the message that more rate hikes are on the way.

We also have inflation and Q2 GDP numbers from the Eurozone. Consumer Price Index figures are expected to rise 2.0% y-o-y in July, remaining unchanged from June. Meanwhile, GDP growth is expected to see a 0.3% fall from a year ago, towards 2.2%.

In equity markets, the tech sector continued to weigh on sentiment. Shares of Facebook, Twitter and Netflix plunged further on Monday, as investors started to become more worried about their business models after they announced their latest earnings results. Amazon and Alphabet were also dumped. Meanwhile, all eyes will shift to Apple earnings today in the hopes of providing some support for FAANG stocks.



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Proposal tarif baru Trump menghantam saham, Rupiah melemah karena Fed optimis

Mata uang pasar berkembang terancam merosot tajam setelah Federal Reserve menyampaikan penilaian yang optimis mengenai ekonomi AS. Dolar sepertinya akan tetap sangat terangkat oleh spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS tahun ini, sehingga mata uang pasar berkembang termasuk Rupiah dapat terus melemah. Dari aspek teknis, USDIDR dapat menantang 14500 di jangka pendek apabila Dolar terus menguat.

Isu perdagangan antara dua ekonomi terbesar dunia terus menghantui pasar di hari Kamis setelah Presiden Trump meminta pemerintahannya untuk mempertimbangkan peningkatan proposal tarif sebesar lebih dari dua kali lipat terhadap barang asal China senilai $200 miliar. Proposal tarif baru sebesar 25% ini memukul saham Asia pada awal perdagangan, sehingga Indeks Hang Seng merosot ke level terendah sejak September 2017. CSI 300 China dan Shanghai Composite turun lebih dari 2.5% sementara Yuan terus bergerak mendekati level terendah satu tahun.

Meninjau ketegangan dagang yang semakin meningkat, investor memantau langkah pemerintah China berikutnya untuk mencegah penurunan besar lebih lanjut di pasar saham. Saya rasa pelonggaran kebijakan fiskal dan moneter adalah instrumen utama untuk saat ini. Walau demikian, menarik untuk kita perhatikan apakah China akan mulai menggunakan senjata yang lebih ganas terhadap AS dan menjual sebagian besar dari obligasi Treasury sebesar $1.2 triliun yang saat ini dimiliki China. Ancaman ini akan mengakibatkan imbal hasil Treasury melonjak tajam, sehingga biaya kredit menjadi lebih tinggi untuk pemerintah, perusahaan, dan konsumen. Jika China menggunakan senjata ini, kita akan menyaksikan panic selling di pasar saham AS dan global, tapi sepertinya pemerintah China masih akan menyimpan senjata ini.

Seperti yang sudah diperkirakan, Federal Reserve mempertahankan suku bunga di hari Rabu dan mempertahankan persepsi bahwa suku bunga akan terus ditingkatkan secara bertahap. Walau begitu, pernyataan Federal Reserve memberi nuansa lebih optimis sehingga Dolar AS menguat. Komite Fed menyampaikan bahwa aktivitas ekonomi meningkat dengan laju yang pesat, dan belanja rumah tangga serta investasi bisnis pun meningkat tajam. Sedikit perubahan bahasa ini menyiratkan bahwa kenaikan suku bunga dapat kembali ditingkatkan di bulan September dan mungkin juga di bulan Desember.

Emas melemah tanpa ampun karena Dolar menguat pekan ini. Harga bergerak menuju support $1213 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Ekspektasi pasar mengenai kenaikan suku bunga AS mengurangi selera terhadap emas dan memperkuat Dolar, sehingga logam mulia ini dapat semakin melemah. Penutupan harian tegas di bawah $1213 dapat memicu penurunan menuju level psikologis $1200.




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Is Trump truly winning the trade war?

Escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain the financial markets’ hottest topic. President Trump seems to be celebrating winning the first battle of this war, saying that “tariffs are working big time” in a Tweet on Sunday. He believes that they will enable the U.S. to start reducing the large amount of debt accumulated throughout Obama’s administration. Trump also cited that the steep fall in Chinese equities as evidence that tariffs are working. In his opinion, they will make the U.S. much richer than it currently is and that “only fools would disagree”.

The tariffs so far are approximately on $85 billion of imported goods. Assuming a 25% tariff, it would raise $21.25 billion. This number represents 1.33 % of the $1.6 trillion in additional debt President Trump has accumulated since taking office in 2017 and only 0.1% of the current $21 trillion in total debt. So, it doesn’t seem the imposed tariffs would reduce the American debt substantially.

In my opinion, a large portion of the tariffs will be paid by U.S. consumers and I also expect CPI figures to begin reflecting these higher prices, especially if Trump’s administration imposes additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Rising inflation leads to higher U.S. interest rates, translating into higher cost of borrowing and debt servicing. Several U.S. companies have cut their profit forecast as a result of these tariffs, especially car makers; shares of GM, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler fell sharply after announcing their results. Other U.S. companies affected by Trump’s global trade war include Tyson Foods, Harley Davidson, United Technologies, Caterpillar and Coca-Cola, among several others.

This explains why the S&P 500 failed to reach a new record high, despite 81% of companies so far managing to beat their profit forecast in one of the best earning seasons in history. Given that we’re almost at the end of earning season, trade wars will return to dominate the headlines. The next big risk is likely to be the U.S. midterm elections in November. I think there’s a high chance that the Democratic Party will take over the U.S. Congress and end the Republican single-party control. This won’t be good news for equities, and I expect to see rotation to non-cyclical stocks and an increase of cash in investors’ portfolios.




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NZD falls on RBNZ dovish stance

It's been an exciting morning for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as they announced that they see rates being held at 1.75% until 2020 in the current market environment . This pails in regards to previous assumptions from economists that we would see a rate rise in early 2019, and with that thrown out of the window the NZD has fallen accordingly. There is hope that the NZ economy will see moderate growth to say the least, and that core inflation will also pick up in the long run, however all things considered and a trade war going on, it may be a hard ask to say the least. One thing is very clear though, and that is the RBNZ has taken a very dovish stance and provided some stern guidance on expectations and as a result markets will be looking to price this in.

For the NZDUSD it has been a case of free fall at this stage with the NZDUSD crashing through support at 0.6712 and heading down towards support at 0.6600. Certainly this is what the RBNZ is hoping for as a weaker kiwi dollar leads to higher export prices for producers. If the NZDUSD is able to swing things around and actually be bullish then resistance at 0.6755 is likely to be the main focus, with the 20 day moving average hovering around there. Beyond this there is a strong resistance band at 0.6833 and 0.6859 which will likely contain any bullish ambition. All in all though, it's likely the bears that will remain in control on the back of all this news.

The other big mover today has been oil as it shot down the charts on some bearish swings. The catalyst of course was oil inventory data which showed a weaker than expected drawdown of -1.35M barrels (-3M exp) and a surge in gasoline inventories as well to 2.9M (-1.9M exp). All of this has taken the heat of the oil market which had been looking stronger on the back of Iran sanctions.

Looking at the movements of oil on the charts, it's clear to see that it has shot down lower and hit support around 66.03 in this instance, before seeing a small retreat. If we continue to see bearish pressure here then I would expect a fall to 63.98, but more importantly there is the trend line which could create an even bigger hurdle given it's bullish. If the bulls are able to come back in then resistance at 67.45 and 69.38 are likely to be the key targets, with the market seemingly being a little unsure on oil being over 70 dollars a barrel.




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Reli mata uang pasar berkembang hanya sementara, USD sentuh level tertinggi 2018

Relief rally yang memungkinkan mata uang pasar berkembang untuk mencoba stabil pasca reaksi sangat bergejolak terhadap krisis Lira Turki sepertinya hanya berlangsung sementara. Sebagian besar mata uang pasar berkembang Asia melemah pada saat laporan ini dituliskan, karena ketegangan politik antara Turki dan Amerika Serikat terus memanas dan Dolar mencapai level tertinggi baru di tahun 2018. Depresiasi mata uang pasar berkembang sepertinya akan meluas ke wilayah Eropa, Timur Tengah, dan Afrika saat pasar Eropa dibuka hari ini, dan kemungkinan juga ke pasar FX Amerika Latin saat Wall Street dibuka.

Satu-satunya mata uang pasar berkembang yang tidak melemah adalah Rupee India yang justru sedikit menguat terhadap Dolar AS setelah menyentuh level terendah baru di awal pekan ini. Mengingat bahwa Dolar menguat terhadap sebagian besar mata uang lainnya setelah mencapai level tertinggi baru di tahun 2018, ada kecurigaan pasar bahwa Bank Sentral India (RBI) mungkin telah melakukan intervensi pasar FX untuk memperkuat Rupee. Bank Indonesia (BI) baru saja meningkatkan suku bunga sebagai upaya mencegah Rupiah untuk merosot lebih rendah lagi. Upaya BI sebelumnya untuk mengubah kebijakan moneter tidak diterima oleh investor, terutama karena aksi beli USD yang terus berlanjut.

Lira Turki masih terus terombang-ambing tapi tampaknya mencoba untuk kembali menguat terhadap Dolar AS untuk hari ketiga berturut-turut setelah krisis Lira Turki menyedot perhatian dunia. Lira menguat walaupun Turki meningkatkan tarif impor terhadap berbagai produk AS. Menarik untuk kita pantau apakah pemerintahan Trump akan memberi tanggapan yang mengguncang pasar.

Memburuknya ketegangan dagang dan diplomatik antara Amerika Serikat dan Turki mengingatkan pasar bahwa perang dagang global bukan hanya melibatkan Amerika Serikat dan China. Ada banyak ekonomi lainnya di seluruh dunia yang merasa terganggu oleh proteksionisme pemerintahan Trump.

Satu pertanyaan yang muncul dan harus diperhatikan investor di saat Dolar mencapai rekor tertinggi baru tahun 2018 - seberapa lama reli Dolar dapat berlanjut? Dolar yang menguat bertolak belakang dengan keinginan pemerintahan Trump, dan ada argumen bahwa ini mengurangi stimulus fiskal yang diusung Trump bersama kebijakan proteksionisme karena harga impor ke Amerika Serikat menjadi meningkat.

Saya akan sangat terkejut jika Presiden Trump tidak mengemukakan ketidakpuasannya atas apresiasi USD di waktu dekat.




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Quiet market before Powell Jackson Hole speech

There is a lower level of market volatility at the end of the week, with investors on stand-by mode before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole later today.

Traders are probably on the edge of their seats wondering whether Powell will respond at all to the criticism from President Trump towards US interest rate policy earlier in the week, but the most market-friendly way to respond to such comments would be to ignore them. The Federal Reserve does remain set on raising US interest rates once again next month, and there is no reason for the Fed to deter from this path. I personally doubt that he would acknowledge the comments made by President Trump during Jackson Hole.

Powell might be able to create some volatility for traders is if he highlights the potential impact the ongoing trade tensions is a risk to the global economy. There are indications that the global economic outlook is slowing when compared to this time last year, and the latest FOMC Minutes release from this week did create a picture that Federal Reserve policymakers are concerned about the prolonged trade tensions. If Powell suggests that these concerns over trade tensions could also weaken the US economic outlook, this would represent a risk for the Dollar.

Elsewhere a threat for financial market volatility would be if Jerome Powell takes an unexpected turn towards offering monetary guidance on what the outlook for 2019 could bring. The market is already pretty much set-on for the Federal Reserve to raise US interest rates next month with the door also remaining open for a potential US interest rate increase before the year concludes, but there isn’t much guidance on what to expect next year. It might be a little premature at this stage to speculate, but if Powell suggested that 2019 would bring a less active approach towards raising US interest rates this would be seen as a negative for the US Dollar.




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BoE inflation report hearings in focus, Dollar powers higher

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A sense of gloom was evident across financial markets today as worries over rising trade tensions and emerging market weakness weighed heavily on global sentiment.

Looming U.S. tariffs set to be imposed on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods as soon as Thursday brings on oppressive feelings, while uncertainty over NAFTA negotiations has compounded anxieties. Caution can be reflected across global equity markets, with Asian stocks concluding mixed while European shares struggle for direction.

Emerging market currencies witnessed further weakness on global trade tensions and Dollar strength. No prisoners were taken as the Turkish Lira, Argentina Peso, South African Rand and many other EM currencies felt the burn. The outlook for EM currencies remains gloomy, especially when considering the turmoil in Turkey and Argentina, trade war fears and prospects of higher US interest rates all present downside risks ahead.

The British Pound had a rocky start to the week after Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned that he “strongly” disagreed with key sections of Theresa May’s Brexit proposal. Sellers attacked the Pound further this morning on reports that UK construction activity slowed in August.

Much attention will be directed towards the UK’s inflation report hearings where Mark Carney and several MPC members are set to testify before parliament. Investors will be paying very close attention to any comments around monetary policy, economic outlook and ongoing Brexit developments. Will he stay or will he go? This remains a recurrent question on the mind of many investors. Lawmakers are likely to use this opportunity to quiz Carney about his future plans. The battered Pound could receive a knock out blow if Carney strikes a dovish tone and talks down rate hike prospects.

In the currency markets, the Dollar was King as concerns over escalating US-China trade tensions boosted safe-haven demand for the currency. Another key driver behind the Greenback’s healthy appreciation is speculation over higher US interest rates this year. Taking a peek at the technical picture, the Dollar Index punched above the 95.50 level. A solid daily close above this region could inspire a move towards 95.80.

Gold bears were back in action on Tuesday thanks to a broadly stronger US Dollar. With the mighty Dollar set to dim Gold’s shine and US rate hike expectations denting appetite for the zero-yielding metal further, the outlook remains tilted to the downside. Sustained weakness below the $1,200 psychological level could open a path towards $1,180.



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Sterling weakens despite wage growth surprise

There was appetite for the British Pound on Tuesday morning following official data that showed UK wage growth accelerating faster than expected. However, gains were later surrendered as investors redirected their focus back toward Brexit developments.

UK wage growth surprised to the upside by rising 2.9% in the three months to July while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4% - its lowest level since March 1975. Although the jobs report illustrates an encouraging picture of the UK economy, this is unlikely to convince the Bank of England to raise interest rates anytime soon. The central bank is poised to remain on hold until the thick smog of uncertainty created by Brexit fully dissipates.

Sterling’s extreme sensitivity to Brexit headlines has clearly become a dominant market theme. The explosive price action witnessed yesterday following encouraging comments from the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator is a testament to this fact. While a renewed sense of optimism over a Brexit deal possibly secured within 6-8 weeks could push Sterling higher, any hiccups during the talks are likely to expose the currency to downside shocks.

Looking at the technical picture, the GBPUSD is turning bullish on the daily charts. Prices are trading above the daily 20 Simple Moving Average while the MACD is in the process of crossing to the upside. Bulls will remain in control as long as the GBPUSD is able to keep above the 1.3000 level. However, a breakdown below 1.3000 could inspire a decline back towards 1.2940.

Across the Atlantic, the Dollar rebounded against a basket of major currencies as rising global trade tensions boosted its safe-haven demand. The Dollar is likely to remain king across currency markets on the back of US rate hike expectations and the bullish sentiment towards the US economy. Taking a peek at the technical picture, the Dollar Index could challenge 95.80 once bulls are able to secure a solid daily close above 95.50.



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Situasi dagang AS-China semakin tegang, Rupiah merosot

Rupiah merosot tajam di awal pekan perdagangan ini pasca berita bahwa Donald Trump akan segera menerapkan tarif terhadap $200 miliar barang China.

Perkembangan ini menghempaskan harapan negosiasi antara dua ekonomi terbesar dunia, sehingga Rupiah dan mata uang pasar berkembang lainnya terkena imbas negatif. Data ekspor Indonesia yang meningkat lebih rendah dari ekspektasi di bulan Agustus juga memperburuk keadaan bagi Rupiah. Ekspor gagal mencapai ekspektasi karena hanya meningkat 4.15% YoY di bulan Agustus, sedangkan proyeksi adalah 10%, dan impor melonjak 24.65% di bulan yang sama. Sisi positifnya, defisit perdagangan menurun menjadi $1.02 miliar di bulan Agustus, sekitar setengah dari data Juli yaitu $2.03 miliar.

Walau begitu, Rupiah yang berulang kali melemah sepertinya akan meningkatkan ekspektasi bahwa Bank Indonesia akan meningkatkan suku bunga bulan ini demi membantu Rupiah. Kenaikan suku bunga BI dapat mengangkat Rupiah di jangka pendek, arah pergerakan Rupiah tetap dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor eksternal seperti ketegangan dagang global dan spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS.

Optimisme bahwa kenaikan suku bunga Bank Sentral Turki dan Bank Sentral Rusia pekan lalu dapat mengajak investor untuk berinvestasi di pasar berkembang semakin tipis pada awal pekan ini. Sejumlah mata uang pasar berkembang melemah terhadap Dolar, karena berbagai ketidakpastian eksternal terkait ekonomi global membuat investor ragu membeli mata uang pasar berkembang pada level saat ini.

Karena ketidakpastian eksternal ini bersifat tak pasti, misalnya ketegangan perdagangan, kita sulit memegang berita yang beredar di saat kita mencapai titik balik untuk pasar berkembang. Ketidakpastian eksternal tetap tinggi, dan hingga ada indikasi yang konsisten bahwa ketidakpastian ini mulai mereda, sepertinya investor akan lebih menyukai pendekatan berhati-hati sehubungan dengan aset pasar berkembang.

Pound Inggris adalah mata uang lain yang rentan mengalami volatilitas dalam pekan mendatang. Perdana Menteri Inggris Theresa May akan mengadakan serangkaian diskusi penting mengenai Brexit di sepanjang pekan ini, dan dalam beberapa pekan terakhir Pound diketahui sangat sensitif terhadap perkembangan Brexit. Apabila kekhawatiran bahwa Inggris Raya semakin mendekati hard Brexit, maka tak mengejutkan apabila GBPUSD kembali merosot di bawah 1.30 pekan ini.




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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Investors ignored the latest round of tariffs; For how long?

Equity markets do not seem to be concerned over the latest phase of the U.S.-China trade war. Investors have been pricing negative news for months which has led several emerging markets into bear territory. The 10% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods seemed to be a relief rather than a catastrophe given that markets were bracing for a 25% figure. Similarly, the Chinese response was a softer hit than anticipated after announcing that the nation won’t engage in currency devaluation.

There’s no doubt that China’s economy will take a bigger hit if tensions escalated further. After all, China had a trade surplus of $375 billion with the U.S. in 2017. If China’s exports decline- significantly, the economy’s growth may slow down to 6% by 2019. However, there are no signs that Chinese officials are willing to wave the white flag anytime soon, especially with the U.S. mid-term elections being less than two months away.

When looking at the performance of global stock markets this week, investors still seem to believe that a deal between the largest two economies will be struck instead of a further escalation of trade tensions. However, with President Trump in office I have doubts that an agreement will be reached.

Although China cannot go toe-to-toe with the U.S. in a retaliatory tit-for-tat tariff war, they still have options to support their economy and hit back at the U.S. with non-tariffs weapons. China may simply put its deleveraging efforts on hold and begin a new round of fiscal and monetary stimulus to offset the damage created by trade. A reduction in corporate tax rates on manufacturing and other industries along with keeping interest rates low and a further cut in Reserve Requirement Ratio to support credit growth will keep the economy well supported for the foreseeable future.

A gradual depreciation in the Renminbi is another tool to offset tariff impacts. The CNY has dropped more than 5.2% against the dollar so far this year, so it requires less than 5% depreciation to offset the current 10% tariffs imposed by the U.S. Despite Premier Li Keqiang vow not to pursue a policy of currency devaluation, officials can blame market conditions on the fall of the currency.

Beijing still seems to be playing defensive so far, but if China decides to move on the offensive a new strategy will be followed. This may include boycotting U.S. products, increasing taxes on earnings of U.S. companies in China, refusing to grant approvals for M&A involving U.S. businesses, and reducing its U.S. debt holdings. Any signs of China following this path will be damaging for investors’ confidence and that’s what could lead to a steep selloff in global equities.




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Could the Dollar be turning the corner?

Currencies throughout Asia have welcomed the news that the Dollar has tumbled to a near 3-month low. A number of different currencies in the region have advanced against the Greenback, with the weakening momentum for the Dollar benefiting the Indian Rupee the most at time of writing. The indications that the market is turning more negative towards the Greenback would represent very positive news for emerging market currencies in particular, which have received a pounding over the past couple of months in response to the prolonged Dollar strength in the market. This can be seen during trading on Friday with the Thai Baht, Chinese Yuan, Philippine Peso, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit and Indian Rupee all strengthening.

The exact catalyst behind why the Dollar is weakening is not easy to point out, but the main contender is that fading fears over trade tensions are providing traders with a reason to take profit on Dollar positions that have been building for months. Another round of reassuring comments from authorities in China indicating that the Chinese Yuan will not be used as a weapon in the trade tensions has also been looked upon positively by the market.

It does overall go without saying that the prospects for more potential weakness in the Dollar moving forward would of course be widely welcome news for a long list of currencies across the globe.

As we head into the conclusion of trading for the week the South African Rand has benefited the most from weakness in the Greenback. The Rand has strengthened above 4% over the past five days, with traders looking very positively on the news that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) were able to leave monetary policy unchanged yesterday. The news that inflationary pressures in South Africa unexpectedly eased in August earlier this week allowed the SARB to maintain resilience and not follow the recent path of both the Russian and Turkish central banks to raise interest rates, which was needed in both the cases of Russia and Turkey to ease inflationary pressures and defend both the Ruble and Lira from further weakness.

It is not surprising that the Turkish Lira remained volatile and has shifted between both gains and weakness in the aftermath of Turkey’s finance minister announcing his plan to combat the Lira currency crisis. The market as you would expect has looked upon the announcement negatively that there has been a sharp downgrade in GDP growth forecasts for both 2018 and 2019. Growth is now expected to slow below 4% this year and narrowly above 2% in 2019, which is a sharp contrast to the overall growth at 7.4% that the economy enjoyed last year.

I would keep a very close eye on the British Pound over the upcoming sessions despite the news that the Cable has rallied to its highest levels in nearly three months. Traders appear to have repositioned in recent sessions that there will eventually be a breakthrough in the UK and EU negotiations over Brexit, but the latest summit in Salzburg failed to result in a positive outcome and the rally in the Pound can fall like a house of cards if the markets begin to reprice into the market a potential hard-Brexit eventuality.




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Dollar steady after Fed raises interest rates

In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve has raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points for the third time this year.

The central bank expressed optimism over the US economy and projected growth to remain at a steady pace through 2019. Inflation was forecast to linger around 2% over the next two years while the unemployment rate seen falling to 3.5% next year. All in all, the relatively upbeat assessment of the US economy and little concern shown over trade tensions reinforced expectations of a rate hike in December. However, the key takeaway was the removal of the word “accommodative” from the statement which was seen as a dovish signal that suggested slower interest rate increases next year.

In regards to the technical picture, the Dollar Index briefly depreciated before later clawing back losses as investors digested the updated dot plot and economic projections. The Dollar’s overall reaction to the Fed rate decision and press conference was fairly muted with prices trading around 94.30 as of writing. A breakdown below 94.00 could trigger a decline back towards 93.80. Alternatively, a move above 94.30 may inspire bulls to attack 94.50.




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Rescued NAFTA deal revives risk-on sentiment, Yen crumbles

Investors have entered into the final trading quarter with a renewed appetite for risk after Canada agreed to join the United States and Mexico in a trilateral trade deal over the weekend.

Global equity markets powered higher on this positive development, while the Canadian Dollar and Mexico peso both soared to fresh multi-month highs. With the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) seen as a breath of fresh air to markets, “risk-on” could remain the name of the game in the short term. However, market sentiment remains gripped by ongoing US-China trade tensions in the medium to longer term. Any fresh signs of trade tensions escalating between the world’s two largest economies could dent investor confidence and erode risk appetite.

In the currency markets, the Japanese Yen was a clear casualty of the “risk-on” mood with the currency depreciating to levels not seen November 2017. An appreciating Dollar rubbed salt into the wound with the USDJPY trading towards 114.00 as of writing. With investors likely to offload the shun the Japanese Yen for riskier assets and the Dollar supported by rate hike expectations, the USDJPY could trade higher. In regards to the technical picture, a solid daily close above 114.00 could send the USDJPY towards 114.50.

The Canadian Dollar bulls were unstoppable today mostly due to the NAFTA optimism with the USDCAD crashing towards levels not seen in over 4 months below 1.2800. With the CAD heavily supported by higher oil prices and expectations over the Bank of Canada raising interest rates this month, the USDCAD could potentially sink towards 1.2700 and beyond. Investors will continue to closely observe if bears are able to secure a solid weekly close below the 1.2800 level.

Gold traded in the background with prices bouncing within a modest range despite investors offloading safe-haven assets for riskier investments. The yellow metal may remain on standby ahead of the US jobs report on Friday. Daily bears remain in control below the $1200 psychological level with $1181 acting as a near-term bearish target.

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