FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

[FreshForexTeam]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for July 9, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 64300, SL 61800, TP 75600.

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Following the prolonged decline and the apparent completion of the impulsive wave (c) of z, buyers attempted to regain control. Although the initial rally was relatively modest, the market now needs to withstand selling pressure from bears attempting to push the price back toward the recent lows.

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So far, Bitcoin has handled this pressure well. The price has been trading within a narrow range for the second consecutive day, with the expected breakout pointing to the upside. Ultimately, this consolidation is expected to develop into a full-fledged bullish impulse.

Given this outlook, opening long positions at current market prices appears to be a reasonable strategy.

Investment idea: BUY 64300, SL 61800, TP 75600.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 10, 2026 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

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The latest Japanese producer price data strengthened the case for the yen. The index rose by 7.1% year on year in June, compared with expectations of 6.8%. Import prices in yen terms also increased at their fastest pace since 2022. Rising cost pressures make it more likely that the Bank of Japan will return to the issue of further interest rate increases.

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The central bank has already warned that companies are passing higher raw material and fuel costs on to consumers more quickly. Following the June rate increase to 1%, markets are considering the possibility of another move before the end of the year. This is gradually reducing the US dollar’s advantage in interest-rate-differential trades. US Treasury yields still support the American currency, but lower expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve decision are weakening this factor.

Yen weakness is also increasing import costs and keeping the foreign exchange market under close scrutiny from the Japanese authorities. The risk of official action does not determine the direction on its own. However, it is now accompanied by a fresh inflation signal and a stronger basis for further Bank of Japan action. Under these conditions, a decline in USDJPY appears to be the more sustainable scenario unless the US dollar receives renewed support from US economic data.

Trading idea: SELL 161.45, SL 161.75, TP 160.55

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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 13, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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For the euro, the key factor today is not only pressure from higher energy prices, but also the market’s reassessment of ECB expectations. Rising oil prices are again increasing inflation risks in the eurozone, reducing the likelihood of an overly soft stance from the central bank. The regional economy remains sensitive to import costs, but the inflation channel may temporarily support the euro.

The US dollar remains supported by geopolitical tension and higher US Treasury yields. However, part of this advantage has already been priced in after the recent reassessment of Federal Reserve expectations. Ahead of the US inflation release, market participants may be more cautious about increasing dollar exposure, especially if they expect confirmation of slower price pressure in the US. This creates room for a recovery in EURUSD.

Under the baseline scenario, the euro’s advantage looks moderate, but more justified than continued selling after a strong reaction to the external shock. If ECB expectations remain steady and US data does not strengthen the case for a tougher Federal Reserve stance, the pair may receive support. Against the current fundamental backdrop, the buying idea looks like a workable scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1400, SL 1.1370, TP 1.1490

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[FreshForexTeam]

Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | July 17, 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4059.00, SL 4090.00, TP 3966.00​

Gold starts the week under pressure as higher oil prices reinforce inflation concerns. Rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar are reducing the appeal of the non-yielding metal. Market attention remains focused on upcoming US inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

Geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for defensive assets, but this factor is currently being outweighed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a tighter policy stance. If US Treasury yields remain elevated and the dollar stays supported, the baseline scenario allows for a further decline in XAUUSD under the current fundamental backdrop.

Trading idea: SELL 4059.00, SL 4090.00, TP 3966.00

#SP500: SELL 7375, SL 7450, TP 7150​

The US equity market begins the new week in a more cautious environment. Higher energy prices are adding to inflation concerns, which may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance. For companies, this means persistently high borrowing costs and more moderate expectations for future earnings.

At the same time, the start of the corporate earnings season will provide an important test for elevated market valuations, particularly in the technology sector. If company results and forward guidance fail to meet investor expectations, pressure on the index may persist. Under these conditions, the selling scenario appears more consistent with the current fundamental backdrop.

Trading idea: SELL 7375, SL 7450, TP 7150

#BRENT: BUY 79.30, SL 77.30, TP 85.30​

Brent starts the week with strong support from persistent risks to global oil supplies. Market participants are closely monitoring developments affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as any disruption could materially tighten the supply balance and support prices despite elevated volatility.

Concerns that higher oil prices may weaken global demand remain a limiting factor. However, the market is currently placing greater emphasis on the risk of supply disruptions. As long as the geopolitical premium remains in place, the baseline scenario allows for further gains in Brent prices.

Trading idea: BUY 79.30, SL 77.30, TP 85.30

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