Lunar Influence Forex Trading Strategies Explained

This is a fascinating and niche topic within the realm of alternative or "astrological" market analysis. It's crucial to preface this by stating that trading based on lunar influence is not a mainstream strategy and is considered highly speculative. There is no robust scientific evidence conclusively proving a causal link between lunar cycles and market movements. Any such method should be approached with extreme caution, rigorous backtesting, and should only ever be used as a secondary confirmation tool within a broader, proven trading strategy that includes fundamental and technical analysis.

Various Methods to Trade Forex Using Lunar Influence​

The concept generally revolves around the idea that gravitational changes or historical human behavioral patterns linked to the moon can influence mass psychology and, consequently, market liquidity and volatility.

1. Lunar Phases (New Moon & Full Moon): This is the most common approach. The hypothesis is that the heightened emotions and energy around the New Moon (conjunction) and Full Moon (opposition) lead to increased market volatility, potential reversals, or breakouts.
2. Lunar Cycles (Perigee & Apogee): This method focuses on the moon's elliptical orbit. Perigee is when the moon is closest to Earth, theoretically exerting the strongest gravitational pull, potentially increasing volatility. Apogee is when it's farthest, suggesting calmer markets.
3. Solunar Theory: Popularized by hunter and fisherman John Alden Knight, this theory posits that fish, animals, and by extension, humans, are more active during specific times of day that coincide with the moon's position (moon overhead and moon underfoot). Traders might look for increased activity around these key times.
4. Planetary Aspects and Geometry: More complex financial astrology involves looking at the geometric angles (aspects) between the moon and other planets (e.g., conjunctions, squares, trines). The belief is that stressful aspects (squares, oppositions) create market tension and volatility, while harmonious aspects (trines, sextiles) promote trend continuation. Various techniques have been created and some simplified by some legendary traders such as WD Gann, Michael Jenkins, Sergey Tarasov of Timing Solutions amongst a host of other estoric trading experts.
   
   In this forum, we have for many months and in fact years seen a member Monfleri post his weekly analysis under the thread 100% forex signal featuring likely trading signals on swing trading Gold or XAUUSD. However, we are unable to access these posts a few months ago for various unknown reasons. He has, in his past posts, alluded to provide trading signals based on the moon influence on trading.
   
   One of the most widely cited and testable lunar methods that can be adapted for both swing trading (holding positions for several days) and day trading (focusing on the volatile hours surrounding the exact lunar event) is the Full Moon-New Moon method.
   
   If there is any interest in this method of swing trading we can go into details plus examples of how to use this method as part of a trading strategy in my next post.

This is the second "lesson" in sharing about a structured and measurable method of trading the influence of the moon on trading a forex pair.

Detailed Description: The New Moon / Full Moon Reversal Strategy for Swing Trading​

This is one of the most cited and testable lunar methods and can be adapted for both swing trading (holding positions for several days) and day trading (focusing on the volatile hours surrounding the exact lunar event).

Core Hypothesis​

The intense gravitational pull and its supposed effect on human psychology during the exact moments of the New Moon and Full Moon can act as a catalyst for exhaustion moves. This often manifests as a short-term market reversal after a sustained trend. The market, having likely over-extended, uses the energy of the event to change direction.

Methodology & Rules (Swing Trading Focus)
​

This is a template for a strategy. You must backtest this extensively on your chosen currency pairs before considering it with real capital.
I would only share by way of an actual step by step example if there is more interest than just the 3 responses received so far from members in this forum by the end of this month, August 2025.Otherwise, this strategy template would be sufficient for members to gauge whether this method of trading has merit or otherwise to help them in their trading.

1. Identification of the Event:

• Source Data: Use a reliable astronomical calendar (e.g., timeanddate.com, NASA's Eclipse Website) to note the exact timestamp (in UTC/GMT) of the upcoming New Moon and Full Moon.
• Relevant Pairs: This strategy may have a stronger (or weaker) historical effect on certain pairs. It's often tested on major pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD (Gold), which are highly sensitive to market sentiment.

2. Strategy Setup (Swing Trade Example):

• Timeframe: Use a daily (D1) chart to identify the prevailing trend and key support/resistance levels.
• Context is Key: The strategy works best when there is a clear, sustained prior trend leading into the lunar event.
  
  • For a Full Moon: Look for a strong uptrend in the days leading to the event. The hypothesis is for a potential bearish reversal.
  • For a New Moon: Look for a strong downtrend in the days leading to the event. The hypothesis is for a potential bullish reversal.
• Confirmation Candle: Do NOT trade the exact moment the moon event occurs. Instead, wait for the daily candle to CLOSE after the event has passed. This candle provides crucial confirmation.
  
  • For a potential short (Full Moon): Wait for a bearish rejection candle (e.g., a bearish engulfing, shooting star, or doji) to close below the open near the highs of the trend.
  • For a potential long (New Moon): Wait for a bullish rejection candle (e.g., a bullish engulfing, hammer, or doji) to close above the open near the lows of the trend.

3. Trade Execution:

• Entry: Enter on the market open following the confirmation candle.
• Stop-Loss:
  
  • For a short trade, place the stop-loss a few pips above the high of the confirmation candle (or the recent swing high).
  • For a long trade, place the stop-loss a few pips below the low of the confirmation candle (or the recent swing low).
• Take-Profit: Use a Risk-Reward Ratio of at least 1:1.5 or 1:2. A common method is to target the previous significant support (for shorts) or resistance (for longs) level. The swing trade typically aims for a hold time of 2-5 days.
  
  As I mentioned before, the best way to illustrate this method is to show an example of how a trade in this moon influence model is done- from the strategy setup to the trade execution. As already mentioned, this method is best for SwingTrading. However, this method can be adapted for daytrading as well.
  
  If there is more interest in this topic, we can move into how we can adapt the method to day trading and provide an actual step by step process from the strategy setup till the trade execution, otherwise it has been, I hope, worthwhile to stoke the interest of at least 3 persons who have expressed their likes in this topic . Behind the mystery, myth or fact of astro-trading, lies a whole new science of Planetary Aspects and Geometry, but for the most part, some knowledge about the techniques of WD Gann will be sufficient for a trader to start off in this field.

Let us continue our sharing on the lunar influence on trading- this is part 3 of the series.

Referring to the lunar event of a Full Moon and a New Moon as in the strategy setup for swing trade example, one question often asked is where would be the base or station or location for the sighting of the lunar event? Since traders reside all throughout the world, let us take, for example, a trader in Melbourne Australia, trading XAUUSD, how would the timing of the lunar event of Full Moon or NEW Moon be decided?


The short answer is: The base location is not a city on Earth, but a notional point in space relative to the Earth and Sun. The published time for a New Moon or Full Moon is a single, universal moment calculated in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).

Let's break this down.

The Astronomical Event: A Moment in Space​

A New Moon or Full Moon is not an event that is "sighted" from a specific location like a sunrise. It is an instantaneous astronomical alignment:

• New Moon: The precise moment the Moon passes between the Earth and the Sun. Their celestial longitudes are equal, and the sunlit side is fully away from us.
• Full Moon: The precise moment the Earth passes between the Sun and the Moon. Their celestial longitudes are 180 degrees apart, and the sunlit side is fully facing us.

This alignment happens at one exact instant. For example, an astronomy calendar might list:
Next Full Moon: March 25, 2024, at 07:00 UTC

This means that at 7:00 in the morning in London (which is the same as UTC during winter), the Earth was directly between the Sun and the Moon. This moment is the same everywhere in the universe; it does not change based on an observer's location.

Practical Application for a Trader in Melbourne​

In this example of a trader in Melbourne, the process is not about "sighting" the moon but about converting the universal event time (UTC) into your local time zone.

Melbourne operates on Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) which is UTC +10 hours, or during daylight saving time, Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) which is UTC +11 hours.

Step-by-Step Guide:

1. Find the Event in UTC: Use a reliable source that lists the lunar events in UTC.
   
   • Best Source: TimeAndDate.com - Their lunar phase calendar is exceptional. You can search for "Moon Phases Melbourne" and it will automatically show you the times in your local time zone. This is the easiest method.
   • Professional Source: NASA's Scientific Calendar - Lists all events in UTC.
2. Convert the Time (if necessary): If your source only gives UTC, you must convert it.
   
   • If during AEST (UTC+10): Local Time = UTC Time + 10 Hours
   • If during AEDT (UTC+11): Local Time = UTC Time + 11 Hours

Example:
Let's say you are trading XAU/USD (Gold) and want to apply the Full Moon strategy. You find the next event is:

• Full Moon (UTC): June 22, 2024, at 01:08 UTC

Melbourne will be on AEST (UTC+10) in June.

• Calculation: 01:08 UTC + 10 hours = 11:08 AM AEST on June 22, 2024.

Therefore, the key moment you would be watching the charts for a potential reversal signal (e.g., a bearish rejection candle on the hourly or 4-hour chart) would be around 11:08 AM Melbourne time on that day.

Important Consideration for the "Confirmation Candle"​

Remember the core tenet of the strategy described previously: Do not trade the exact moment. The exact time of the Full Moon (11:08 AM in this example) is the catalyst you are watching for, but it is not your entry signal.

Your entry is based on the close of the first significant confirmation candle after that time that shows evidence of a reversal (e.g., a bearish engulfing pattern on the 4H or Daily chart for a Full Moon during an uptrend).

Summary​

• Base Location: There is no terrestrial base. The time is universal (UTC).
• For a Melbourne Trader: Your task is to convert the published UTC time of the New/Full Moon to Australian Eastern Time (AEST or AEDT).
• Simplest Method: Use TimeAndDate.com and set the location to Melbourne. It will do all the conversions for you, giving you the exact local time of the lunar event.
• Strategy Application: Use this local time as the center point of your analysis window. Look for confirming price action (reversal patterns, increased volatility) in the hours following this event before considering a trade entry.

By understanding that the lunar event is a single moment in UTC, you can accurately align your trading charts and analysis for any market, from anywhere in the world.

Since there doesnt seem to be much interest in this topic, and to avoid this thread to become a monologue, I will now just talk about how to find accurate data input for your trade analysis. Thereafter, I will consider this thread closed .

How to Get the Precise, Official Data for 2025 and 2026 Yourself​

This is the most reliable method. I strongly recommend you use this for your trading plans. Depending on your geographical location, I am taking an example of a trader from Melbourne, so if you are in Jakarta, select Jakarta, or if you are from Shanghai, select Shanghai and so on.

1. Go to: TimeAndDate.com Moon Phases Calendar
2. In the search box, type "Melbourne" and select it from the dropdown.
3. You will now see a calendar for the current year.
4. To change the year:
   
   • Look for the "Jump to:" section near the calendar (usually below or above it).
   • Select the Year (e.g., 2025 or 2026) and the Month if desired.
   • Click "Go".
5. The calendar will update. You will see icons for the phases. Hover your mouse over the "New Moon" or "Full Moon" icon to see the exact local time for Melbourne (AEST/AEDT).

Why this method is superior:

• Accuracy: It uses the official astronomical algorithms.
• Time Zone Handling: It automatically and correctly accounts for Australian Daylight Saving Time (AEDT) transitions. This is the most common source of error in manual lists.
• Permanence: You can access this data for any year, anytime.

Crucial Reminder on Strategy​

As detailed in our previous conversation, these astronomical events are not trading signals in themselves. They are merely potential catalysts for a change in market sentiment. Your edge comes from:

1. Context: Is the market in a clear trend leading into the event?
2. Confirmation: Waiting for a price action rejection pattern (e.g., bearish engulfing at a Full Moon after an uptrend) to close after the event time.
3. Risk Management: Placing a stop-loss order immediately after entry and never risking more than a small percentage of your capital on such a speculative strategy.

Using the tool above, you can plan your analysis windows for the entire year with perfect accuracy. Good luck.

With this, I will now close this thread. If anyone else wants to deliberate or discuss more along these lines, please start a new thread, leaving the posts in this thread purely as the start or a base learning the initial basics. The ultimate aim is then to progress to learn how to perform celestial and astro calculations and to be able to perform computations to nail the turning points of any individual forex pair or index or metals or cryptos.
With this sharing, it is my hope that I have stirred the interest in at least one or two members to embark on an interesting journey on this very vague and msytical subject and to discover that it is just the opposite in real life as astro computations finally lead to precise accurate movements related to price and trading -- as seen from days of old through the works of the legendary WD Gann.

I wish everyone prosperity in the markets, and may the best prices be yours!

Although I have considered this thread closed, I am re-opening this thread specifically for the next BLOOD MOON occurrence.
Blood Moons are lunar eclipses. The next Blood Moon occurs tomorrow 8th September 2025.

Key Historical Blood Moon Events​

The most significant Blood Moon events in recent decades include the 2014-2015 tetrad, consisting of four consecutive total lunar eclipses occurring on April 15, 2014, October 8, 2014, April 4, 2015, and September 28, 2015. This rare tetrad coincided with periods of significant market volatility and geopolitical events.
More recent Blood Moons have aligned with major financial disruptions. The May 16, 2022 Blood Moon occurred during the Terra Luna and UST collapse, which resulted in a $40 billion market loss. Similarly, the November 8, 2022 Blood Moon coincided with the dramatic FTX collapse, when FTT token plunged 80% and Sam Bankman-Fried's empire crumbled.

Blood Moons represent periods of heightened risk and reduced performance expectations. The psychological effects of these celestial events appear to influence trader behavior, leading to:

• Increased market volatility around eclipse dates
• Heightened emotional responses and impulsive trading decisions
• Greater susceptibility to panic selling during crisis periods

XAUUSD Trading Prognosis for September 2025​

Based on historical analysis and current research, the September 2025 Blood Moon presents several trading considerations for XAUUSD:

Expected Market Behavior:

• Reduced bullish momentum: Historical data suggests gold performance typically diminishes during Blood Moon periods
• Increased volatility: Eclipse dates correlate with heightened market uncertainty and larger price swings
• Psychological pressure: The global visibility of this eclipse may amplify trader emotional responses
  
  

• Current Gold Market Context​

  Gold has demonstrated exceptional performance in 2025, reaching record highs above $3,500 per ounce and delivering a 33% gain year-to-date. This unprecedented bull run has set 28 new record highs in 2025 alone, building on the 39 records achieved in 2024. However, this elevated price level may make the market more susceptible to Blood Moon-induced corrections.
  
  May the best prices be yours!