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Date : 31st May 2021.

Market Update – May 31 – USD Holds gains.


Market News Today – UK , US closed today. USD holds gains following Fridays PCE and PMI data. USDIndex closed Friday @90.00 down from 90.41 high and –1.34% for the month. US stocks closed flat on Friday (For April USA30 +1.94% & USA100 -1.53%) Global stocks start muted to the new week. Most Asian equities retreated after signs China’s econ recovery may be leveling out (PMI dipped) and JPY data was mixed, global inflation risks a concern. Bonds steady w/US 10y yields at 1.59%. Gold reclaims $1,904 and USOil trades at $66.65.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales, GDP and CPI & a rate decision from the RBA and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – Virus developments remain in focus as recovery broaden but against the background of rising cost pressures. On the data front, the focus will be on preliminary inflation data for Germany and Spain, which are likely to show a further acceleration in headline rates. The German number is already above the ECB’s definition for price stability and likely to rise further, although for now base effects from energy prices remain the main driving factor, which allows the ECB to see through what it still expects to be a temporary overshoot.

Today – German regional & national CPIs.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.26%) up from Friday’s low at 0.7676 to move over 0.7000 into close and now trade at 0.7725. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55.25 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and testing 0 line from below. Stochs. rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 1st June 2021.

Market Update – June 1 – USD Back under pressure.


Market News Today – USD weighed into the new month. USDIndex down into close under 90.00 at 89.75 now. RBA – No Change and no fuss – although they did highlight the improving jobs market, concern over housing price surge and the Covid outbreak in Victoria – AUD been a good performer along with GBP over night. Asian markets positive at 1-month highs, positive PMI data from JPY & CNY and AUD Housing data, lifted sentiment. Oil up ahead of OPEC+ meeting (not expected to discuss output beyond July and wants to wait and see what happens with Iran) “sources”. Brent over $70.00, USOil at $67.65 and 12 week highs. GOLD bid by inflation worries & weaker USD – trades at $1913, next key resistance $1922-5.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – Holidays in the U.K. and the U.S. made for a very slow start to the week yesterday. Investors will be back today but trading so far has still been muted. The June 10-year Bund future is down -5 ticks, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.62% in catch up trade. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and down -0.3% respectively, while U.S. futures are posting fractional gains. Further indications of strengthening growth are also accompanied by lingering inflation concerns and of course tapering jitters. In FX markets EURUSD is little changed at 1.2233, while Cable has lifted to 1.4227

Today – EZ, UK, US Final Manufacturing PMI, EZ Flash CPI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed’s Quarles, Brainard, BoE’s Bailey and JMMC/OPEC+ meetings. Earnings from ZOOM.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.25%) rallied from near 16- week lows on Friday’s close at 0.6920 yesterday to close at 0.6950. Rallied again today to 0.6977 ahead of RBA, since cooled to support at 0.6960. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55.00 and now neutral, MACD histogram & signal line choppy, remain over 0 line from below. Stochs. moving lower out of OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0041.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 2nd June 2021.

Market Update – June 2 – USD off lows.


Market News Today – USD off lows but remains pressured. USDIndex down to 89.63 yesterday back to 89.90 now. Good PMI data and a beat for EU CPI (up to 2.0%) will focus minds at the ECB – and a strong US Manufacturing PMI will add to the “to talk taper or not” at the FED. OPEC+ agreed to increase production in July (USOil dipped from $68.60 to $67.35). US Markets closed flat (USA500 -2 to 4202); Zoom Earnings & profits beat, outlook trimmed, AMC rallied 22% after $250m investment. Asian markets are mixed. Overnight a significant beat for AUD GDP and revisions sent Aussie lower, as positive comments from RBNZ Governor Orr sent NZD lower. German Retail sales a huge miss (-5.5% vs -2.4%) as lockdowns bite, EUR 1.2212 from 1.2225. GOLD dipped from $1916 yesterday to under $1900 now.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 13 ticks at 169.96, the September Treasury future little changed, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate is now unchanged at 1.61%, after the paper erased overnight losses. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and US futures are also posting fractional gains, but it looks like a cautious start to the day, with investors still digesting yesterday’s data round ahead of the Beige Book for the next FED meeting.

Today – CB Speak day – US Private Oil Inventories, RBA’s Debelle, Bullock, ECB’s Elderson, Lagarde, Buba’s Weidmann, Fed’s Harker, Evans, Bostic, Kaplan, Kashkari.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.37%) rallied from under 20-day moving average yesterday and a dip to 1.9470 earlier, over PP and R1 to 1.9580. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 64.75 and rising, MACD signal line rising (under 0 line) however, histogram has broken over. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0021, Daily ATR 0.0140.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 3rd June 2021.

Market Update – June 3 – Standing By for Jobs Data.


Market News Today – USD grinds higher awaiting jobs data. USDIndex spiked to 90.20 yesterday back to 90.00 now. Equity markets edged out gains (USA500 +6 to 4208). AMC rallied 95% after Tuesday’s +22% after $250m investment. Asian markets higher, ASX200 at ATH, USOil over $69.00 following OPEC+ deal. Overnight Chinese Services PMI miss, AUD Retail Sales in line and Harker talked of “low rates for longer”, Beige Book “moderate pace of expansion”. Suga to hold snap election after Olympics, Biden progresses Infra talks with Republicans & offers incentives to boost vaccination rate, UK 75% of adults at least one vaccination. EUR 1.2186, JPY 109.80, GBP 1.4150. GOLD dipped from $1909 earlier to under $1895 now

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are Treasury futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate is now up 0.3 bp at 1.59%, after the paper pared earlier gains. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.2%, while U.S. futures are narrowly mixed, with overall trading still sluggish and muted as investors wait for another trigger, with the focus now on US payroll numbers tomorrow. Tapering musings seem to be getting louder and while ECB’s Lagarde stressed late on Wednesday that the central bank will maintain favourable financing conditions through the crisis, that would undoubtedly still be the case if monthly purchase volumes under PEPP were scaled back to the levels seen early in the year.

Today – EZ, UK and US Services and Composite Final PMIs, US ADP, Weekly Claims, ISM Services PMI, DoEs, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Bostic, Kaplan, Harker, Quarles



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.38%) has moved down to test yesterdays lows at 0.7205 (S1) earlier, (last Thursday was trading over 0.7300). faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 32.40 and filing heading to OS zone, MACD signal line and histogram falling again and have been below 0 line since Tuesday. Stochs. still moving lower and into OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 4th June 2021.

Market Update – June 4 – Dollar bounces ahead of NFP.



Market News Today – USD sprang to life after strong ADP (978k vs 645k), Weekly Claims (385k vs 400k) and ISM Services PMI data (64 vs 63). USDIndex has rallied (+0.8%) to 90.57 after closing over 20-day moving average for the first time since April 7. Equity markets sank (USA100 hit hardest; -1%) (USA500 -0.4%, -15pts to 4192, as VIX rallied 1.1%). 10yr Yields have rallied to 1.632%. Asian markets also lower. All eyes on NFP at 12:30 GMT. USOil down from $69.00 to $69.70 (following a much bigger inventory drawdown of 5.1mb vs 1.2 expected ) Overnight Stronger rebound for Japanese household spending, Fedspeak remained Dovish lead by Williams “not concerned by inflation outlook”. Biden offers 15% min. rate for Corp. Tax and 28% top has post NFP press conference scheduled (14:15 GMT). EUR 1.2107, JPY 1109.25, GBP 1.4100. GOLD (& other commodities (partic. Copper) slumped on the stronger USD – touched $1855, closed at $1870 and holds there now.

European Open – The Sep 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate stabilised. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are fractionally lower, as are US futures. Strong data releases and tapering musings saw yields moving higher yesterday and investors will likely hold back ahead of the key US payroll numbers later today. It seems increasingly likely that central banks will start to rein in monetary support as fiscal stimulus is underway and the growth outlook improves, and expectations are that the ECB will start reining in asset purchases over the summer, in a flexible manner that allows the central bank to keep a close eye on spreads and step in if necessary.

Today – EZ and UK Construction PMIs, US and Canadian Jobs Reports, US Factory Orders, Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde, Villeroy, de Cos, PBoC’s Yi Gang, BoJ’s Kuroda, SNB’s Jordan & RBNZ’s Orr



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.26%) has moved up from 15-week lows yesterday (0.6907) to rally to 0.6936. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 54 and spiking higher, MACD signal line and histogram rising but remain below 0 line from yesterday. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 7th June 2021.

Market Update – June 7 – Dollar subdued following jobs and G7.



Market News Today – The markets characterized the May US jobs report as Goldilocks –neither too hot, nor too cold. Indeed it was just right for bond and stock bulls. Treasuries rallied with a burst of short covering as the smaller than expected headline job increase pushed a Fed tapering further out the calendar. The steep drop in yields was very favorable to Wall Street, and especially the USA100. Today stock markets traded narrowly mixed amid disappointing trade data out of China and with investors keeping a close eye on comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen, who urged President Biden to press ahead with spending plans ($4 trillion/year), even if they may fuel inflation, while saying that a “slightly higher” interest rate environment would be a “plus”. China trade data showed weaker than expected export growth, but a jump in imports to the highest since 2010.

G7 – agreed to a global minimum tax of at least 15% on multinational companies but faces a rocky path to implementation. (The Biden administration could win support for its US tax increases). The deal give countries more authority to tax the profits of digital companies like Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. that dominate global markets but pay relatively little tax in many countries where they operate.

European Open – The Sep 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.57%. EGBs are also likely to move up from the lows seen in the wake of the US payroll number on Friday. With fiscal support being stepped up and the recovery strengthening, the pressure on central banks to take the foot off the accelerator is getting stronger and flexible QE schedules may become more of a thing especially for the ECB, which will be meeting on Thursday. The ECB is expected to move away from its commitment to “significantly” higher monthly PEPP purchases. GER30 and UK100 futures are currently down -0.2% and up 0.04% respectively, while US futures are fractionally lower.

Covid will remain on the regional radar again this week, as cases in several countries continue to rise, causing economic restrictions and factory closures. Thailand and Vietnam have been hit by fresh outbreaks, while Malaysia last week put a total lockdown in place. The restrictions will ultimately impact incoming data in the region.

Today – Today’s slate includes Japan’s Q1 GDP, current account, PPI and the MoF business outlook survey. Supply is a focal point in the week ahead with the $120 bln in coupon auctions. Today‘s rally in Treasuries reflects little fear. Ironically, the richening may work to diminish demand. Markets will also digest the G7 agreement on tax payments of big firms today.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURGBP (+0.49%) has moved up from its 2-month floor at 0.8560. Faster MAs remains aligned higher, RSI 68 and spiking higher, MACD signal line and histogram rising but signal remain at 0. Stochs turning lower from OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0005, Daily ATR 0.0041.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 9th June 2021.

Market Update – June 9 – Markets holding patterns.



Market News Today – Global bonds were in rally mode Tuesday, with early support from a flight to safety after several government, social media, and news websites went down. Though later determined to be a problem with a US cloud computing firm, the recent hacks of major companies had left investors anxious. The widespread internet outages spooked investors following a series of hacks in recent weeks that brought down the Colonial Pipeline and JBS.

Treasuries benefited from a flight to safety, and then a short covering bid just after the open, sending longer dated yields sharply lower, while Eurozone spreads narrowed. Today however the 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.8 bp at 1.53% and bonds in Australia and New Zealand outperformed in catch up trade. CPI readings out of China came in lower than anticipated at 1.3% y/y, but PPI inflation was the highest since 2008 at 9.0%. GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.1% and down -0.1% respectively. US futures are little changed.

Oil prices meanwhile continued to move higher as confidence in the recovery strengthens. US officials said they have recovered $2.3m worth of the ransom payment made to hackers who shut down the Colonial Pipeline last month and disrupted the country’s fuel supplies for several days.

Officials are apparently considering imposing a cap on the price of thermal coal to contain high energy costs.

World Bank projects global growth at a 5.6% clip this year, a big upward boost from the 4.1% clip that had been estimated in January. That would be the fastest pace of expansion since the 6.6% clip from 1973 and results from the global distribution of vaccines and massive stimulus measures. The global economy contracted -3.5% last year.

Today – The event risk for tomorrow’s ECB meeting is that Lagarde will sound less dovish than markets seem to be expecting, as strengthening growth and usually quieter trading conditions over the summer will argue for increased flexibility on PEPP purchases going forward. With the ECB meeting and US inflation data looming tomorrow, stock markets are likely to be pretty static today, with indices still hovering at very high levels.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) – Sugar prices provided clear positive trades yesterday to move away from the 17.70 level, which supports the continuation of the 11-day rally, motivated by positively configured MACD and RSI. Key resistance is the 18.20 high on May 12.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 10th June 2021.

Market Update – June 10 – It was all about Treasuries and still is!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – It was all about Treasuries again as yields continue to drop, and despite the rates tumbling to the lowest since March 3, ahead of the CPI data there was stellar demand for the 10-year auction.

10-year Treasury yields have dropped back a further -1.0 bp below 1.50% for the first time since March. Bearish positioning in Treasuries seems to be more extreme than initially thought. Bond markets across the Asia-Pacific region also found buyers, leaving the 10-year JGB rate down -0.1 bp at 0.060% and Australia’s 10-year rate down -8.9 bp at 1.48%.The September 10-year Bund future is up 7 ticks, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped -1.2 bp to 1.48%.

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Biggest FX Mover – GBPJPY drops to the 154 level, after it opened the day below the 20-day MA. It has posted a reversal from 156 highs since the end of May. Next key Support is at 153.45, which is a confluence of May’s floor and lower BB pattern.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 11th June 2021.

Market Update – June 11 – Market relaxed on inflation fears.


Market News Today – Gilt yields closed higher after stronger than expected US inflation numbers, while Eurozone bonds, in particular BTPs, got a boost from the ECB announcement, which affirmed the commitment to keep monthly PEPP purchases “significantly” higher than at the start of the year. The ECB is essentially in wait and see mode and seems to be focusing very much on the outlook for the travel and tourism sector against the background of new virus variants. Central banks successfully convinced markets that the spike in inflation is transitory and after the spike in US inflation yesterday, the Eurozone May inflation round will likely look tame by comparison.

In Asia, Australia and New Zealand bonds found buyers, but in South Korea bonds extended losses after comments from the central bank’s chief economist on normalizing policy. For now the factors driving the jump look transitory, but there are some lingering concerns that it could become entrenched and there was talk that central bankers willdiscuss tapering at the Jackson Hole meeting over the summer.

In Europe, the bunch of data releases out of the UK at the start of the session was largely bond friendly, despite monthly GDP being a tad weaker than expected at 2.3% and industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly dropping -0.3% and -1.3% respectively. The visible trade deficit meanwhile remains sizeable at around GBP 11 bln.

In FX markets the Yen struggled and USDJPY lifted to 109.42, while the EUR strengthened and EURUSD is at 1.2192, while Cable is little changed at 1.4182. Stock markets mostly managed slight gains as markets continued to digest the uptick in US inflation. JPN225 is up 0.04%, GER30 and UK100 futures are still up 0.1% and 0.2% respectively and US futures are also higher, led by a 0.11% rise in the USA100. USOIL is at $70.14 per barrel.




Biggest FX Mover – USA100 just a breath below 14k. Currently the rally has stalled, with fast MAs flattened along with RSI at 63 while Stochastic is sloping lower pointing to 20 barrier. ATR (H1) at 17.70 and ATR (D) at 142.70.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 14th June 2021.

Market Update – June 14 – USD & Equities hold onto gains.



Market News Today – Markets closed flat to higher on Friday close to ATHs. Dollar rose into close and holds its bid today. EURUSD is little changed at 1.2106, Cable at 141.13 and JPY 109.70. Yields fell to 3-mth lows at 1.428% on Friday. Many Asian markets closed today; no data in the US calendar and Eurozone releases focusing on April production data. G7 proposed 1 billion vaccine doses for LIC, a global infrastructure plan to rival China’s Belt & Road 25 yr scheme, a charge against human rights and more talk on the climate crisis ahead of COP26 in November. USOil rallied to test $71.00 and Gold collapse continued down to $1858.

Week Ahead – All eyes on Wednesday (18:00 GMT) & the FOMC Announcement & Press Conference. Markets expecting more dovishness with “talk about talking about Tapering” not happening until the July or even September meeting. BOJ & SNB also on the stump. Biden meets Putin.

European Open – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, and US futures are also posting gains of around 0.1-0.2%. The G7 rebuke to China was met with a quick rebuttal. The U.K. meanwhile is set to push the full lifting of virus restrictions back into July against the background of a fresh rise in case numbers. ECB President Lagarde meanwhile is quoted by Politico as saying that its too early to debate the end of PEPP as officials need to really anchor the economy. The results of the ECB’s strategic policy review meanwhile are hoped to be on the table by the end of summer.

Today – EZ Industrial Production, ECB’s Schnable and BoE’s Bailey



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.40%) has bounced from a big down day on Friday, a close below 200-day MA at 19-week low 0.6395. Breached 0.9400, Pivot Point and 20-hr MA today, 50-Hr MA at 0.6425. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 52 still neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising but remain below 0 line from last week. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 15th June 2021.

Market Update – June 15 – Equities at record highs.



Market News Today – US Markets closed at record highs (USA500 4255) and Asian stocks followed but closed mixed after key markets returned after long weekend. Dollar holds on to gains (USDIndex 90.40). EURUSD (1.2125) and Cable (1.4115) little changed. JPY holds the break of 110.00. Yields off 3-mth lows and up to recover 1.50%. USOil rallied again to $71.35 before cooling under $71.00 and the Gold collapse spiked as low as $1845, back to $1865 now. Copper off -2% yesterday too. Overnight – AUD Housing inflation steeper than expected, Bailey talked digital currencies & US passed the grim 600k Covid deaths milestone. Strong UK Jobs data, Claims, Earnings and Unemployment all beat expectations.

Week Ahead – All eyes on Wednesday’s (18:00 GMT) FOMC Announcement & Press Conference. Markets expecting more dovishness with “talk about talking about Tapering” not expected to happen until the July or even September meeting. BOJ & SNB also on the stump. Biden meets Putin Wednesday after NATO summit.

European Open – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, US futures are posting gains of around 0.1%, after another record on Wall Street yesterday. Investors seem to be putting inflation concerns aside for now although mutterings that there could be more lasting shifts in prices are getting louder. For now though the focus is on the FOMC announcement tomorrow. The U.K. pushed out the date for the full lifting of Covid restrictions to July 19.

Today – Empire State Manu. PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, ECB’s Lane, Panetta, BoE’s Bailey, Government supply from the UK, Germany & US.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) USDNZD (+0.26%) has bounced from a big down day on Friday, at 0.7115 and a floor yesterday at 0.7130, to move over 0.7150 and clear of the 20-hr MA. Next resistance 0.7180. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 58 and rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising and testing 0 line. H1 ATR 0.00072, Daily ATR 0.0060.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 16th June 2021.

Market Update – June 16 – FX Markets waiting for FOMC.


Market News Today – US Markets closed down from new ATH’s (USA500 -8.5 4246) Mixed US data BIG miss for Retail Sales but PPI was stronger than expected. Dollar awaits FOMC – FX markets moribund. (USDIndex 90.44, EURUSD 1.2125, and Cable 1.4090. JPY holds the break of 110.00 & Yields the break of 1.50%. USOil rallied again to $72.50 following API inventory drawdowns. Gold dipped to $1850 and back to $1860 now. – Biggest move – VIX.F rallied over 13% to 19.42. Overnight – JPY data weaker than expected but a huge jump in Exports to a 41 year high. – UK Inflation (2.1%)- stronger than expected following big rise in jobs data yesterday.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are U.S. futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has moved up 0.5 bp to 1.497%, as markets wait for the FOMC announcement today. The big question will be whether the Fed signals that it is starting to think about tapering and investors are likely to trade cautiously into the event. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.019% and 0.153% respectively. US futures narrowly mixed, with the Nasdaq future outperforming and up 0.5%.

Today – Chinese Industrial Output and Retail Sales, Canadian CPI, FOMC Policy Decision and Fed Chair Powell, US-Russia Summit, UK Economic Update (Treasury), ECB’s Elderson, de Guindos




Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX.F (+12.5%) gapped on open to 19.42 following a test of the pre-pandemic low on Monday at 16.00. Closed yesterday at 17.17. Next resistance 20.00, support 20-day MA at 18.65. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI OB and flat at 78, MACD signal line and histogram rising and significantly above 0 line. H1 ATR 0.3300 Daily ATR 1.14.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 17th June 2021.

Market Update – June 17 – BIG Surprise from the FOMC Dots.


Market News Today – FED no rate change and $120bn bond buying to continue. BUT BIG hawkish surprise with plans for 2 x 0.25% rate rises in 2023 (13/18 votes), it had been 2024 and even 7/18 see rate rises in 2022. Statement increased 2021 growth to 7% from 6.5%, and inflation to 3.4% from 2.4% 3 months ago. “risks to the economic outlook remain“, rising inflation was “largely reflecting transitory factors”, recovery “significantly” dependent upon the next steps of the virus. We will taper when economy has reached “substantial further progress” will do what we can to “avoid a market reaction”. Next meeting July 27/28.

• USD (91.43), Yields (1.57%) and the VIX (20.46) all rallied.
• Stocks (-0.54%), Commodities(-2.0%+), EM currencies & Oil($71.10) all sank.

Biden-Putin – both talked tough and of a “constructive” first Summit. The thorny issues of Nuclear Weapons, (my arsenal is bigger than yours) Cybersecurity (leave us alone, we never touched you) Geopolitics (where you go we will follow) were all on the agenda.

Overnight – Big beats for AUD Jobs (115.2 k vs 30.5K) & Unemployment (5.1% vs 5.5%) & NZD GDP (1.65% vs 0.5%) data.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -63 ticks in catch up trade, while Treasuries have started to stabilise after the post-FOMC sell off. The slightly more hawkish stance at the Fed and stellar data out of Australia and New Zealand overnight seems to signal that markets need to prepare for a gradual withdrawal of stimulus. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are still down -0.3% and -0.4% respectively, US futures are also under pressure, after a largely weaker session in Asia overnight and a lower close on Wall Street. ECB’s Lane – “don’t be premature with assumptions over PEPP tapering” September meeting important but “a lot of data still to to come” before December.

Today – Norges Bank, SNB and CBRT rate decisions, Eurozone CPI (final), US Weekly Claims, Philly Fed, CB Leading Index & ECB’s Elderson.




Biggest Mover post FED @ (06:30 GMT) XAGUSD (-2.51%) turned lower again, ahead of FED after rejecting 27.80. Moved significantly below 27.00 to test of 26.56 in immediate aftermath, closed at 26.95. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 30.35 and testing OB zone, MACD signal line and histogram falling and significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.210 Daily ATR 0.603.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 18th June 2021.

Market Update – June 18 – The FED still dominates.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD holds on to gains (USDIndex test 92.00) US Equities mixed – (USA100 +0.87% & new ATH, USA30 -0.62%). BoJ left policy unchanged and stuck to its ultra-accommodative policy setting & extended COVID funding. JPY Inflation came in better than expected to with the CORE reading turning positive (just) for the first time since April 2020. Asian shares up but closing lower for the week. Round Number Friday – EUR down to1.1900, JPY 110.00 and Cable 1.3900. 10 yr Yields 1.51% but the spreads between US Corporate debt and US Government debt is at a 10-year low¹ – and could explain the tech rally yesterday following the Hawkish FED. Gold dived to $1770 (open the week at $1875; -5.6%) trades at $1785 now. USOil

Overnight – Big beat for German PPI (1.5% vs 0.7%, & 0.8% prev.) and big miss for UK Retail Sales (-1.4% vs 1.5%, & prev: 9.2%)

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower and in cash markets Eurozone bonds are also finding some support, although the U.S. 10-year rate has lifted 0.7 bp to 1.51% overnight. Stocks traded narrowly mixed across Asia and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also little changed, while US futures are slightly higher, led by a 0.3% rise in the NASDAQ. With growth stabilising the tide is slowly turning, although it is clear that central banks will be taking a very, very cautious approach on tapering, with policy set to remain extremely accommodative for a long time to come. It seems unlikely that the BoE will break the line when it meets next week. – Action Economics

Today – Little new news today – EU Econ Ministers meeting & Fed’s Kashkari, its also Quadruple Witching Friday (Quarterly Index & Stock Options and Futures Contracts all expire – 3rd Friday of the Quarter)



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.59%) turned lower again, has been under 20-day moving average since June 3 from 78.76. Breached 78.00 yesterday and 77.00 today. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 24 & OB, MACD signal line and histogram falling and significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.130 Daily ATR 0.620.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 21st June 2021.

Market Update – June 21 – USD remains Bid, Equities and Yields lower.


Market News Today – USD holds onto gains from last week. USDIndex over 92.00. US Equities lost over 1.5% (USA500 -55pts to 4166 (-1.31%), Dow -1.58%) & Asian markets (save China) very weak (Nikkei -3.3%). US 10 yr yields @ 1.39% (4 week low) & 30yr yields under 2% (4 mth low). JPY, AUD & NZD tad stronger to open. EUR down to 1.1875, JPY 110.00 & Cable 1.3815. Gold dived to $1760 on Friday back to $1778 now. USOil spiked down to $69.80 on Friday back to $72.00 now, over the weekend Iranian Nuclear talks broke down & Iran elected a very hardliner new president. US Senate coming together on much reduced $1 trillion Infrastructure – Biden unhappy. Bullard talked of tapering & Kashkari of no rate rises until 2024.

Week Ahead – BOE Super Thursday, Powell Testifies to Congress Tuesday and a week of PMI data. US lots of Fedspeak has GDP, CPE, Housing and US Durable Goods.

European Open – Markets continue to adjust the changed rate outlook, with the hawkish turn at the Fed weighing on shorter dating bonds, while bringing down rates at the long end. The September 10-year Bund future is up 33 ticks, US futures are outperforming. Reflation trades are being unwound and while the actual lift off in rates is still a long way off, even in the US, it is clear that the period of ever rising monetary support is coming to an end. Stocks are struggling in this environment and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.9% and -0.7% respectively. US futures are also in the red, after Japanese markets led a sell off overnight.

Today – ECB weekly bond purchases, Williams, Bullard, Kaplan and ECB’s Lagarde



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.51%) recovered from last weeks sell-off (0.7150 – 0.6925) pushed to 0.6972 earlier, breaking 20Hr MA. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 50 and starting to rise but remains from neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising but remain below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0014 Daily ATR 0.0071.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 22nd June 2021.

Market Update – June 22 – Signs of Volatility.



Market News Today – Volatility back – Equities rebound, USD slips from recent highs but USDIndex holds at 92.00. US Equities recover (USA500 +58pts to 4224 (+1.40%), Asian markets also recover. US 10 yr yields bounce too; 1.49%. EUR under 1.1900, from 1.1920, JPY up to 110.50 & Cable back to 1.3900. Gold holds at 1780, USOil spiked to $73.80 (Oct 2018 high). UKOil over $75.00 and April 2019 high) on the back of the Iranian news, OPEC still not talking production increases and growing global demand. Biden making positive noises over much reduced $1 trillion Infrastructure Bill.

CB-Speak Powell at sub-committee inflation has “increased notably” labor market “continue to improve,” Williams, “US economy hasn’t improved enough, inflation will hit 3%” Bullard “strong labor market” as the country’s (GDP) is observing a growth of almost 7%. Lagarde the ECB will keep a “very close eye on wage growth” she was also more optimistic on the outlook.

Week Ahead – BOE Super Thursday, Powell Testifies to Congress 18:00 GMT Tuesday and a week of PMI data. US lots of Fedspeak has GDP, CPE, Housing and US Durable Goods.

European Open – Sep 10-year Bund future down 8 ticks, pretty much matching Treasury futures. DAX & FTSE 100 futures both up 0.3% & US futures also slightly higher after a strong close on Wall Street yesterday. Markets are getting over the Fed’s hawkish tilt, as officials continue to stress that inflation will be transitory, suggesting that any tapering will be very gradual and dependent on economic developments.

Today – EUR Consumer Confidence (Flash) & US Existing Home Sales, Fed’s Powell, Daly, Mester, ECB’s Lane & Schnabel.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.35%) yesterday’s rally from 0.7475 stalled at 0.7545 and has declined to 0.7520 today. Under PP and 20Hr MA. Next support 0.7500 and S1 at 0.7494. Faster MAs moved lower, RSI 46 and neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising but weak break of 0 line. Stochs OS since 20Ma break. H1 ATR 0.0010 Daily ATR 0.0065.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 23rd June 2021.

Market Update – June 23 – Dollar Dips & Equities Stronger post Powell.



Market News Today – Equities rebound (USA100 +0.79% to new ATH) & USD slips again (USDIndex 91.80). Catalyst was Powell comments “inflation alone would not be enough to prompt rate rises” “we will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances.” Asian markets also recovered, AUD & JPY PMIs missed expectations. US 10 yr yields fell as USD cooled bounce again too; 1.47%. EUR holds over 1.1900 at 1.1925, JPY up again to 110.80 & Cable (5 years since Brexit vote today) up to 1.3945. Gold rotates at $1780, USOil down from Monday’s spike to $73.80 but holds over $72.00 as $100 Brent gossip swirls¹ & OPEC tests the waters on production increases.

CB-Speak Daly said bank was right to talk about slowing the pace of asset purchases, but economy is “not yet here” for such a decision, & even talk of changing rates is not on the table. Officials are looking to Fall data to get more clarity on the status of the economy & its developments. Inflation could approach 3% in the near future & the data is expected to remain volatile. Mester – inflation expectations have risen, but it has not yet reached an alarming level – it will hit between 3% to 3.5%, but after that it will drop to the Fed’s 2% year-over-year target. A better picture of the labor force will be seen in September, after schools reopen & increased unemployment benefits end.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, as are US futures. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.019% and -0.050% respectively, while US futures are fractionally higher, after Fed Chairman Powell managed to sooth nerves yesterday with calming words on the rate outlook and by reiterating that inflation pressures will be transitory.

Today – EZ, UK and US PMIs (Flash), ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos; Fed’s Bowman, Bostic, Rosengren, and supply from Germany and the US.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.29%) First down day in 9 yesterday to close at 1.9845. Rallied on open over PP and 50Hr MA (1.9985) to 1.9900. Next resistance R1 1.9931. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 55 but neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising weakly & remain below 0 line. Stochs declined from OB & now neutral. H1 ATR 0.0023 Daily ATR 0.0122.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 24th June 2021.

Market Update – June 24 – Tepid Markets ahead of big data day.




Market News Today – Sideways Wednesday into tepid Thursday, ahead of a busy day. USA100 +0.13% to new ATH again, TSLA +5%, Dow & S&P500 flat, USD dips & recovers, USDIndex 91.80. Global PMIs overall positive (partic. Manu.) New Home Sales big miss with prices at record highs. Overnight Asian markets also tepid. US 10yr yields 1.49%. EUR holds at 1.1925, JPY spiked to 111.10 (now 110.85) & Cable spiked to 1.4000 now down to 1.3960. Gold rotates at $1775, USOil spiked to $73.25 after inventories drawdown was twice as large as expected. Holds over $72.60 now. Much reduced (1.5 tn) bipartisan Infrastructure plan “agreed” & being presented to Biden today, possible re-start of Iran nuclear talks next week. Kaplan & Bostic both hawkish & expecting Inflation to “stick”.

European Open – September 10-year Bund future fractionally higher, US futures also little changed, while in cash markets US 10-yr rate has lifted 0.5 bp to 1.49%. DAX & FTSE 100 futures marginally higher, US futures slightly outperforming, but overall moves have been very tepid so far.

Today – German Ifo, US Initial/Continued Jobless Claims, GDP (Final, Q1), Durable Goods and New Zealand Trade Balance, BoE Rate Decision, Fed’s Williams, Barkin, Bostic, Bullard, Harker, Kaplan; ECB’s Schnabel, Panetta, and supply from the US

2021-06-24_09-51-52.jpg
HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 25th June 2021.

Market Update – June 25 – USD slips, Stocks at new all-time highs.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Market News Today – Dollar a tad weaker, but holds onto gains, USDIndex 91.80, USA100 & 500 at ATHs. Agreed $1.2 tn Infrastructure plan lifts sentiment. However, mixed US data yesterday, Claims missed, GDP confirmed at 6.4% & Durable Goods missed. All US Banks passed stress tests late in the day. BoE – no change & no hawkish surprises but looks like tapering measures will start after the summer. GBP hit. Overnight Asian markets also bid, NZD bounces and JPY weakest. US 10yr yields 1.49%. EUR holds at 1.1950, JPY under 111.00 to 110.75 & Cable tests under 1.3900 now back to 1.3925. Gold still rotates at $1780/75, USOil Holds over $72.50 now.

European Open – German GfK consumer confidence much better than expected at -0.3 vs -6.9 in the previous month. The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, as are US futures. Gilts led a rally in EGBs yesterday after the BoE affirmed its accommodative policy stance, but there could be a slight pullback as markets continue to digest the statement. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, alongside broad gains in US futures.

Today – US PCE Price Index, Personal Income and Consumption, Fed’s Williams, Rosengren, Mester, Kashkari; ECB’s de Cos.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.25%) Rallied from test of 200HR MA yesterday at 0.7745. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 65.7 and rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising remain significantly above 0 line. Stochs rising and testing OB zone again. H1 ATR 0.0007 Daily ATR 0.0045.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 28th June 2021.

Market Update – June 28 – Fear is back even in Summer.



Wall Street was mixed on Friday, with the USA30 outperforming as reflation trades are back on. Supporting the rally was a blowout earnings report from Nike. The company saw record quarterly US sales, and beat on the bottom line as well, seeing the USA30 member surge to all-time highs, gaining over 15%. The USA500 closed at record highs, adding 0.34%, up 14 points to 4,281. Yields pushed higher last week, as growth optimism dominated, but investors are keeping a weary eye on virus developments amid the emergence of new more infectious strains.

Today: It was a very slow start to the week for equities, with markets across the Asia-Pacific region hardly moving as investors weighed Covid developments and the outlook for central bank policy. The 10-year Treasury yield is unchanged at 1.5%. Equity markets have traded narrowly mixed, as a new rise in Covid-19 infections across Asia and concern over more potent strains weighed on sentiment. In Malaysia the nationwide lockdown was extended, while Greater Sydney was put under stricter restrictions in a bid to contain outbreaks. In Hong Kong the morning session was cancelled thanks to a rain storm warning. BoJ was confident of recovery at June meeting the summary of discussions showed. The sense was that accelerating vaccination programs would prop up the economy. At the same time inflation pressures were still judged to be benign given the fragile recovery.

Forex Market: JPN225 is currently down -0.1%. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.1% at the moment and US futures are posting similar gains. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar drifted lower, USDJPY dropped to 110.61 while the EUR steadied between 1.1920-1.1970 for a 5th day. The Pound strengthened across the board and cable is off last week’s lows, currently at 1.3909. The USOIL topped tto $73.69. Gold prices slipped to a 1-week low on Monday, weighed down by a bounce in the dollar and mixed signals from the FED on monetary policy tightening despite tame inflation data.

Monday’s Calendar – Fed’s Williams, Quarles and ECB’s Panetta along with Labor data and Retail Trade fom Japan.



Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD (+0.34%) Rallied to the upper range level at 1785.77. Faster MAs currently flattened, RSI 54 and slipping, MACD signal line and histogram close to 0 line. Stochs rising and testing OB zone again. H1 ATR 3.4457, Daily ATR 27.3871.

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

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