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Date : 9th December 2021.

Market Update – December 9 – Imminent inflation data puts the rate outlook back in focus!

• USD down (USDIndex at 95.80) as Omicron worries ebbed further after reports that 3 jabs of the Pfizer vaccine are offering good protection against the variant, with global stock markets sustaining weekly gains but traded mixed, with USA30 and USA100 unchanged most of the session.
• The BoE is increasingly seen to push back a planned rate hike into next year, which is adding to pressure on the Pound.
• The JOLTS report showed a bounce in openings to another 11 mln level, but a decline in quits.
• The Bank of Canada left policy on hold, as expected.
• A business outlook indicator for Japan came in much stronger than anticipated, but Topix and JPN225 still dropped -0.6% and -0.5% respectively.
• US debt limit drama averted as Senate leadership makes a deal (expected at $2 trl increase) – The Senate could take it up perhaps today, with the House voting on Friday, allowing possible enactment just before Christmas.
• US Yields 10-year rate remains above the 1.5% mark though as confidence in the global recovery continues to strengthen, with most expecting the latest virus variant to provide only a temporary set-back for the world recovery and as ongoing Fed tightening worries continue to unwind safe haven trades since Thanksgiving.
• China PPI inflation drops back from 26-year high. – creates room for further stimulus measures.
• USOil – rose to $73.12.
• Gold: at the $1780 area as there are limited gains on elevated Treasury yields and caution in the run-up to a key US inflation data and Federal Reserve policy meeting, which capped gains of the non-yielding asset.
• FX markets – AUD and NZD were sought as local yields moved higher. Sterling stabilised, after selling off yesterday and Cable is currently at 1.3213. EURUSD corrected overnight, but is still firmly above the 1.13 mark at currently 1.1331. USDJPY at 113.50.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future has lifted 16 ticks to 173.65, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are little changed, although in cash markets the US 10-year rate has also corrected from yesterday’s highs. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.1%, after being pressured by a jump in yields yesterday, as ECB officials signalled that Omicron won’t derail plans to phase out PEPP in time next year.

Today – In the US, Jobless claims are on tap. In Switzerland SECO will release its latest set of forecasts ahead of next week’s SNB decision.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.36%) Currently MAs are aligned lower as the asset turned below PP. MACD signal line & histogram are slipping, RSI is at 41 and Stochastic declined to 12. H1 ATR 0.127, Daily 0.908.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 10th December 2021.

Market Update – December 9 – Imminent inflation data puts the rate outlook back in focus.

• USD (USDIndex firmed at 96.25) as caution dominated. Profit taking knocked stocks a little lower after recent gains as concerns over Omicron and the renewed restrictions in the UK and in other areas weighed on the more optimistic growth outlooks into 2022.
• Asian stock markets have sold off across the board, with Topix and Nikkei currently down -0.8% and -1.0% respectively.
• China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd officially defaulted on their dollar debt.
• China’s central bank meanwhile took further steps to limit the Yuan’s strength by setting the weakest reference rate relative to estimates since 2018, – according to Bloomberg. The bank already raised the foreign currency reserve requirement yesterday for a second time this year.
• German HICP inflation was confirmed at 6.0% y/y, the national CPI rate at 5.2% y/y. The final readings for November were no surprise and the breakdown confirmed that higher energy prices were a key factor.
• UK GDP weaker than expected in November – More arguments then for the BoE to sit out yet another meeting next week and push the rate hike debate into 2022.
• US Yields: 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.5 bp at 1.50% – Treasury yields richened, in part on the risk off in stocks and on short covering as some of the recent selling pressures were overdone
• USOil – dip to $70.16 – biggest weekly gain since late August! Brent & WTI both on >6% rise this week. – RISK: China’s domestic air traffic recovery faltering due to zero-COVID policy, that has led to tighter travel rules in Beijing and weaker consumer confidence after repeated small outbreaks.
• FX markets – US Dollar firmed at 96.25, Chinese Yuan got a boost, EURUSD settled below 1.1300 on ECB’s debate news, Cable at 1.3214. Yen generally steady to lower against most currencies.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks, slightly underperforming versus US futures, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.5 bp at 1.50%, after the paper erased overnight gains. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.5% and -0.4% respectively, after a broad sell off across Asian markets.

In Europe, expectations for a BoE rate hike have been pushed back as the UK ramps up virus restrictions. The ECB is set to confirm the end of PEPP, but seems to be still debating if and how to soften the blow with a strengthened APP program. In any case, net asset purchases will continue even when the emergency PEPP program has ended.

Today – Data releases today focus on ECB’s Lagarde speech, US inflation and Michigan index.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAUUSD (-0.20%)Currently MAs are aligned lower with the asset below PP. MACD signal line & histogram are moving southwards below 0 and RSI is retesting OS barrier, with Stochastic declines suggesting further pressure.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 13th December 2021.

Market Update – December 13 – Omicron sentiment improves to start Big week.


Hot CPI data on Friday, all-time highs for stocks and a steady to stronger USD, greets a big week for central banks as markets enter the last three weeks of the year.

• USD (USDIndex 96.22) rises from dips below 96.00 on Friday. Omicron news improves, case peaks appear to have been hit in Gauteng, South Africa, hospitalizations have stabilized and projected death rates appear to be 25 times lower than Delta, mixing Pfizer, AZ & Moderna vaccines appear to give better immunity and Anti-viral drugs from Merck & GSK new data improving. US deaths top 800k, is now present in 30 states and first Omicron case traced to November 15. Stocks hit new all-time highs Friday USA500 +0.95% (+44pts) 4712, Futures now at 4722
• US Yields 10-year rates fell to 1.48%, down about 5 basis points from last week’s peak, and trades at 1.49% now.
• Asian Markets – Asian indices are broadly higher, despite a slightly weaker than hoped Tankan survey for Japan and more omicron warnings, which were counterbalanced by signs that China will take further steps to boost the economy. Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.1% and 0.7% respectively, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are posting gains of 0.5% and 0.7%. Shanghai and Shenzen Comp have lifted 0.4% and 0.6% so far and the ASX closed 0.4% higher.
• USOil – continues to recover and holds over $70.00 for a 5th consecutive day and trades at $72.25.
• Gold – dipped to test key $1770 on Friday, recovering to $1785 now

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -16 ticks, U.S. futures are outperforming slightly, but are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently posting gains of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively and U.S. futures are also posting gains of around 0.3%. In FX markets both Euro and Sterling struggled against a largely stronger dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.1285 and Cable at 1.3227 and USDJPY at 113.50. The UK upped its warnings on the omicron variant over the weekend and is targetting all adults to have received a booster by year-end, a month ahead of current schedule. In the short run at least, the risks to growth forecasts are to the downside, which will also overshadow central bank decisions this week.

BoE, ECB, SNB and Norges Bank are all set to announce policy on Thursday – hot on the heels of the FOMC decision on Wednesday. For the BoE it will likely mean that the flagged rate hike will be pushed out into next year, and possibly 2023 although inflation and labour market data ahead of the announcement could throw a spanner in the works.

Today – OPEC Oil Market Report, BoE Financial Stability Report, Speech from BOE’s Bailey.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.31%) Recovered from sub-1.3200 Friday to 1.3265 highs, down on open and 1.325 now. Currently MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower, RSI 46.00 & weakening. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily 0.0081.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 14th December 2021.

Market Update – Omicron Sentiment slips – Fed in Focus.

• USD (USDIndex 96.35) holds Monday’s gains (95.40), Stocks closed lower (Nasdaq worst performer -1.39%) & Yields drop (10yr 1.422%). Major FX pairs sideways into FED. Omicron news weighed, first death in UK, WHO – this variant “very high risk” but data on severity limited, & another study shows 2-dose vaccines don’t lower antibodies.
• US Yields 10yr traded down to 1.416% up to 1.4216 now.
• Equities – USA500 -43.00 (-0.91%) at 4668 – USA500.F trades higher at 4878.
• USOil – lost over $2.00 under $70.50 – now recovered $71.00 & trades at 71.20.
• Gold spiked to $1790, sank to $1782, now struggles at $1788.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1270, USDJPY 113.70, Cable back down to 1.3200 from 1.3275 yesterday.

Overnight – JPY Industrial production, much better than expected, AUD business confidence better than expected, GBP data dump also better than expected (Earnings 4.9% vs 4.6% & 5.9% last time, Claims down nearly 50k vs 15K last time & expectations of -31k & Unemployment unchanged at 4.2%).

European Open – March 10yr Bund future down -0.6 bp at 174.62, slightly underperforming vs Treasury futures. Yields remain at low levels though as markets keep a wary eye on omicron developments while waiting for this week’s round of CB meetings. FOMC kicks off its 2-day session today, with an announcement due tomorrow. DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.1% & 0.3% respectively. Sentiment stabilising after virus restrictions.

Central banks will have a difficult task trying to balance inflation concerns & virus nerves though the FOMC it seems remains on course to speed up tapering. ECB still looks dovish by comparison, even if it is set to confirm the timely end of PEPP on Thursday, which is keeping a lid on EUR. BOE is also expected to push back the flagged rate hike into 2022 as virus restrictions are tightening & Cable has dropped to test 1.3200. This morning’s jobs news adds to BOE Hawks.

Today – IEA OMR, EZ Industrial Production, US PPI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCAD (-0.23%) slip after 5-day rally from under 0.9000 to 0.9135.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 15th December 2021.

Market Update – December 15 – FOMC Day – A Hawkish FOMC priced in?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• USD (USDIndex 96.39) holds onto gains, close to 2-wk high. Stocks closed lower (Nasdaq worst performer again -1.14%) & Yields drop. US PPI climbed to 9.6% from 8.8%, new ATH. Major FX pairs sideways into FED. US Senate agrees gov. funding into February. Asian markets largely weaker. Omicron news mixed – Pfizer pill 90% effective in final trails, Sinovax & the 3 US vaccines – ineffective after 2 doses vs Omicron – US study, Omicron spreading at “unprecedented rate” – WHO.
• US Yields 10yr traded down to 1.416% up to 1.438% now.
• Equities – USA500 -34.88 (-0.75%) at 4634 – USA500.F trades flat at 4633. MFST -3.26%. Musk could have off-loaded $18m. worth of #TSLA (-0.82%) stock by year end – CNBC.
• USOil – under $70.00 – EIA unsure about Omicron impact on fuel demand – trades at $69.40 testing 8-day lows.
• Gold spiked under key $1770, sank to $1766.70, earlier – now struggles at $1769.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1275, USDJPY 113.70, Cable recovers from breach of 1.3200 to trade at 1.3245 now. (98 Tory MP’s voted against PM Johnson’s plans for further restrictions, motion was passed with opposition support).

Overnight – CNY – mixed data Factory output speeds up but Retail Sales miss (3.9% vs 4.9%), GBP CPI jumps to 5.1% (10-yr high) vs 4.8% vs 4.2% last time – CORE leaps to 4.0% from 3.4%. RPI (which only looks at consumption up to 7.1%) – factory gate prices are up 9.1% & input costs up 14.3% on a year ago – even more grist to the mill for BOE hawks.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -3 ticks, while the 30-year year has moved higher overnight. U.S. futures are also posting fractional gains. A mixed and cautious picture then as markets wait for the FOMC announcement, which is expected to confirm a faster tapering schedule, despite latest virus developments. The DAX future is up 0.17% the FTSE 100 is down -1.6%, as the BoE starts its meeting.

Central banks will have a difficult task trying to balance inflation concerns & virus nerves though the FOMC it seems remains on course to speed up tapering. ECB still looks dovish by comparison, even if it is set to confirm the timely end of PEPP on Thursday, which is keeping a lid on EUR. BOE is also expected to push back the flagged rate hike into 2022 as virus restrictions tighten.

Today – Canadian CPI, US NY Fed Manufacturing, Retail Sales, DoEs, FOMC policy announcement and Fed Chair Powell press conference



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.36%) rallied from 6-day low yesterday at 0.6538 to 0.6585 now. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & have breached 0 line, RSI 60.95 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily 0.0072.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 16th December 2021.

Market Update – 16/12/21 – FOMC – Taper Ends March, 3 x 25bps Rate Hikes 2022.


“The economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support” – Powell

Inflation “uncomfortably high” – has exceeded 2% target “for some time”

Jobs – “we are making rapid progress toward maximum employment”

Looking at a soft landing for economy, as Virus fades, Inflation dissipates on its own (2.6% 2022 – 2.1% 2024?) & Full employment (Unemployment @3.5%) runs through next 3 years.

• USD (USDIndex 96.21) rallied to 96.85 on FED weakened thereafter. Stocks rallied (Nasdaq best performer +2.15%) & Yields rallied. Omicron news mixed again with large rise in cases in UK, SA – Pfizer booster not as effective as elsewhere.
• US Yields 10yr traded up to 1.461% & holds gains.
• Equities – USA500 +75 (+1.63%) breaching key 4700 at 4709 – USA500.F trades up at 4727 knocking on the door of ATHs.
• USOil – rallied from under $70.00 to $71.41 on FED & Inventories.
• Gold held in check by higher yields & USD then reversed – sank to $1753 (46 day low) before bouncing to $1785.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1310 from 1.1225, USDJPY 114.10 from 114.25, Cable 1.3263 from 1.3170.

European Open – March 10-yr Bund future slightly higher, as is the Treasury future, Stock markets have taken hawkish Fed pivot in their stride and DAX and FTSE 100 are up 1.5% and 1.1% respectively ahead of European central bank meetings today. Investors welcomed the clarity on the Fed path and will also have seen the move as a sign of confidence in the recovery. In Europe, ECB is set to confirm the end of PEPP, SNB is expected to keep policy settings unchanged, BoE and Norges Bank will discuss a rate hike in the shadow of Omicron. On balance it seems more likely that Norges Bank will go ahead with the planned hike, while BoE will sit out another meeting as the country debates a circuit breaker lockdown amid 78K virus cases (highest ever) yesterday and signs it’s spreading 4x faster than Delta, fears of hospitals being overrun with cases although milder and companies suffering with many workers off sick.

Today – SNB, Norges, CBRT, BoE, ECB, Flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims – & bi-election in UK a further test of Johnson’s authority.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.36%) rallied from below 150.00 on Tuesday to 151.70. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 72.30 OB & still rising. H1 ATR 0.225, Daily 1.20.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 17th December 2021.
Market Update – December 17 – USD slips, Gold pops, BOJ no change.

* USD (USDIndex 95.80) continues to cool post FED. Stocks sank lead by Tech (Nasdaq -2.47%, wiping out Wednesdays gains) & Yields fell. A weak set of PMI’s across the globe was offset by good US Claims numbers and hot housing data. Sentiment remained depressed across Asian markets overnight, with Chinese tech stocks in particularly hit. GOLD rallied significantly. The BOE surprise lifted GBP – but Johnson lost the bi-election (a seat the party have held for 200-yrs). BOJ – No changes maintains longer JGB outlook at 0% & Inflation target @ 2%.
* US Yields 10yr traded down significantly to 1.411%
* Equities – USA500 -41 (-0.87%) unable to hold the key 4700 – at 4668 – USA500.F trades at 4660. Big losers included #TSLA -5.03%, APPL -3.93% Abode -10.19%. gainers were Verizon +4.35%, PFE +4.17% & banks lead by WFC +2.78%
* USOil – rallied again to $72.65 but has since retreated to $71.75
* Gold – BURST from range to close over $1800 ( from test of 46 day low on Wednesday at $1753) over $1805 today at $1808 currently.
* FX markets – EURUSD 1.1330, USDJPY 113.55, Cable 1.3320.
Overnight – German Producer Prices (miss at 0.8% vs 1.4% & 3.8% prior) but Bundesbank sees German Inflation @ 3.6% for 2022 vs 1.8% in June) UK Retail Sales, better than expected 1.4% vs 0.8% & 1.1% last time)
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 21 ticks at 174.26, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are fractionally higher. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.5% and US futures are also in the red, with the NASDAQ still underperforming and down -0.2%. Wall Street closed with broad losses yesterday and sentiment remained depressed across Asian markets overnight, with Chinese tech stocks in particularly hit. This week’s round of central bank decisions confirmed that banks are moving out of crisis modes and that omicron won’t prevent a gradual withdrawal of support. In Europe the BoE’s rate hike in particular send a pretty clear signal and markets will continue to digest this week’s round of meetings today. The calendar has German Ifo readings, which are likely to look pretty dismal, if yesterday’s PMI reports are anything to go by.
Today – Quad Witching; CBR Policy Announcements.


Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.36%) rRejection of 78.00 yesterday is follwed by more weakness today. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower & under 0 line, RSI 40 & falling.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 20th December 2021.

Market Update – December 20 – Risk-Off greets the start of Week 51.

• USD (USDIndex 96.60) rallied on Friday from 95.80 lows and holds gains to start the week. Stocks sank again on Friday and are lower today, Yields also fell and remain down. Oil tanked -2.79% Friday to 2-week lows, GOLD rallied and cooled but holds $1800. Risk off starts the new week with JPY in demand. Catalyst – OMICRON – lockdowns and further restrictions in Europe, health systems stretched. Other market news – China cuts borrowing costs, Biden’s $1.75tn build back better bill will be blocked by Manchin. Chile (worlds biggest Copper producer) elects young left-wing President (Boric).
• US Yields 10yr traded down significantly to 1.402% on Friday, now down again 1.36%
• Equities – USA500 -48 (-1.03%) at 4668 (was down over 68pt) Dow lost over 500pts– USA500.F trades down again at 4568.
• USOil – slumped over -2.79% to close at $70.14 and is down another $2.50 again today to $67.50
• Gold – Another volatile day on Friday, touched 1815 but closed at 1798. Holds over $1800 currently.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1250 from 1.1235, USDJPY 113.40 from 113.70 close on Friday, Cable closed at 1.3234 down again today to test 1.3200, after more political turmoil, as Brexit Minister Lord Frost resigns and more photos of Tory staff (including Jonson) breaking lockdown rules.

Overnight – ECB’s de Cos: Rate hikes are unlikely in 2022, NZD Trade balance improves significantly and consumer sentiment surprisingly holds up.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 36 ticks, the 30-year has rallied 90 ticks, alongside broad gains in US futures, amid concern that Biden’s spending package won’t get sufficient support to go ahead after all. US growth forecasts are already being revised down in some quarters and without the prospect of considerable fiscal support, it will remain up to the central bank to keep the economy afloat, which will likely mean a less aggressive tapering schedule from the Fed. Stock markets tanked across Asia on the news and DAX and FTSE 100 are down -2.2% and -1.7% respectively. Virus developments are adding to the risk off backdrop, with parts of Europe already back in lockdown and others once again contemplating wide spread closures over the holiday period as booster programs are not fast enough to deal with the Omicron variant.

Today – U.S. leading indicators



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.74%) Down from 82.40 on Thursday to 80.25 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower & under 0 line since early Friday, RSI 26, OS but still falling. H1 ATR 0.17 Daily ATR 0.97.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 21st December 2021.

Market Update – December 21 – Turnaround Tuesday & Winter Solstice.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• USD (USDIndex 96.50) held onto gains as US stocks fell over 1% again, Yields also dipped. Oil posted 2-week lows before recovering and GOLD could not hold $1800.
• Risk-off, shaken off so far today as Asian markets rally. Biden’s $1.75tn build back better bill still being resisted by Manchin but signs are more positive. Nikkei +1.79% and European & Futures rise over 1%. OMICRON – still weighs, NZ delays opening borders, UK no new measures now but cannot rule out lockdowns (probably after Christmas) – 73% of all cases in US were Omicron last week, and first death confirmed.
• Turkish Lira recovered +23% yesterday and another +11% today – Erdogan promised to back/guarantee local savings in LIRA (up to $1.5 billion local USD savings converted to LIRA on Monday night). Some speculators in USDTRY over 15.00 no-doubt burnt but this does not change the fundamentals of the Turkish economy and 20%+ inflation-rate. Move in USDTRY off lows today at 13.60.

• US Yields 10yr traded down to 1.419% now 1.43% lifted as market sentiment improved and save haven flows were reversed.
• Equities – USA500 -52 (-1.14%) at 4568 Dow & Nasdaq -1.23% – USA500.F trades up at 4593. Nike & Micron beat earnings significantly, Movers; PFE +2.6%, MRNA -6.25%
• USOil – slumped to $65.88 yesterday bounced to $69.00 now as sentiment lifts
• Gold – Could not hold the key $1800 handle yesterday & tested 1788 again, now up at 1790.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1275 from a test of 1.1300, USDJPY 113.72, Cable tested down to 1.3173, recovered to 1.3215 after no new restrictions announced.

Overnight – RBA Minutes – confirmed worries over Covid-19, Inflation and “Committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions.”

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -33 ticks, underperforming versus Treasuries, which are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 are up 1.2%, and a 1.2% rise in the NASDAQ future is leading US markets higher, after a broad rebound across Asian markets. Omicron and the associated comeback of restrictions remain in focus, but the general feeling is that developments will dent, but not derail the recovery.

Today – German GfK Consumer Sentiment, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash).



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.31%) Bounced from 76.00 lows yesterday to 76.40 now. MAs now aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher but still under 0 line since early Friday, RSI 52 & rising, Stochs OB zone. H1 ATR 0.125 Daily ATR 0.714.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 22nd December 2021.

Market Update – December 22 – Stocks recover poise.


“COVID remains a threat to the global economy. Initial evidence suggests the Omicron variant is more transmissible but results in less severe illness compared to previous variants,” – CBA

• USD (USDIndex 96.50) held onto gains as US stocks recovered all of Monday’s losses, as Yields also rose; USOil rose 3.7% breaking back over $70.00 and Gold once again pivots at $1788. Risk back on, & a weaker JPY & CHF. Asian markets also higher again. Huge spike in European wholesale power prices – OMICRON signs of market boredom? – Biden orders 500 million free at-home tests, UK & US cut contact isolation times from 7- to 5-days, Israel offers a 4th dose of the COVID-19 vaccination to people over 60.
• Turkish Lira holds on to gains for now USDTRY at 12.60.
• US Yields 10yr traded up to 1.487% and trades at 1.46% now
• Equities – USA500 +81 (+1.78%) at 4649 Dow +1.6%, Nasdaq +2.4% – USA500.F trades up at 4634. Nike +6.15% & Micron +10.54% after earnings beat. Other movers; TSLA +4.29% & CITRIX +13.63% as takeover target. PFE -3.39% & MRNA -2.98%
• USOil – rallied 3.7% peaking at $71.45, as sentiment lifts, low inventories and increasing demand.
• Gold – once again rejected $1800 and pivots around the key 1788 level .
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1264, USDJPY rallies to 114.15, Cable recovers form 1.3200 to 1.3255 now

Overnight – BOJ Minutes: “See need to keep monetary easing despite costs” (no surprise). UK Q3 GDP unexpectedly revised down to 1.1% q/q from 1.3% q/q reported initially. Business investment -2.5% vs. 0.4% and Current account deficit leapt to -£24.4b vs. -£15.8 expected and -£8.6b in previous quarter.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 16 ticks at 173.47, matching moves in Treasury futures. The long end outperformed and 30-year futures have been rallying overnight, as the risk on rally in stocks started to run out of steam overnight. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are still posting gains of 0.45 and 0.3% respectively, but US futures are fractionally lower, as virus developments and the outlook for US fiscal stimulus remains in focus. In Europe most governments seems to be shying away from imposing stricter lockdown measures this side of the Christmas holidays, but that may mean more stringent measures are needed thereafter.

Today – US GDP, Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCHF (+0.31%) Bounced from from test of 1.2150 lows Monday & Tuesday to 1.2270 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher but stalling over 0 line since mid-Tuesday, RSI 68 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0012 Daily ATR 0.0087.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 27th December 2021.

Market Update – December 27.


Stock markets were narrowly mixed across Asia in cautious trade, with Australia and Hong Kong among the markets still closed for the extended holiday weekend. In Europe, the UK is still on holiday and in North-America Canada will remain shut today.

• USD (USDIndex 96.20) steady within 96-96-25 area. US stocks sustain gains in contrast to Asia stocks which corrected lower despite further promises of support for the economy from officials in Beijing. Yields also rose; USOil & Gold under refresh pressure.
• Japan retail sales came in stronger than anticipated – the government last week announced more stimulus measures that also include a direct handout to families, which is boosting the chances of a consumption led recovery, although Omicron could still derail that scenario.
• US Yields 10yr has corrected -1.7 bp to 1.48%, as US Treasuries have found buyers.
• Equities – USA500 settled at 4730 (0.5% above key 4700), NASDAQ at 16344, USA30 at 35950, GER30 future is down -0.3%, Nikkei corrected -0.37%.
• USOil – reversed from $73.58, to 72.34, after airlines called off thousands of flights over the Christmas holidays amid surging COVID-19 cases, though Brent crude gained support from hopes that the Omicron variant will have limited impact on global demand. The contract did not trade on Friday because of the US market holiday.
• Gold – steady above $1,805 as weaker US yields counter firmer Dollar.
• FX markets – Yen struggled, and USDJPY lifted to 114.68, EURUSD 1.1317, Cable trades at 1.3400.

Today – The data calendar is also pretty empty on both sides of the Atlantic, which will leave investors mulling virus developments and central bank outlooks, with early trading suggesting a cautious backdrop and limited moves.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.60%) Breached 1.5692, breaking the 20- and 50-hours SMA, which have been bullishly. MACD signal line & histogram turn positive. RSI 61.73 and rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 28th December 2021.

Market Update – December 28 – Risk-on Sentiment Continues.

• It was another record setting performance for the USA500. It hit its 69th new high of the year, which itself is the second best on record. Easing in Omicron fears and signs of strong holiday sales helped underpin the USA500‘s 1.38% jump to 4791. All 11 S&P sectors are higher, with gains paced by technology and energy. Travel stocks remain heavy though have recovered from their worst levels early in the session as Omicron concerns have been allayed some.
• USD (USDIndex 96.04).
• US Yields 10yr finished at 1.472%, below the 1.50% level since December 9. Treasuries were mixed with the long end outperforming in a flattening trade, while the front end was pressured by supply. A cautious tone could prevail near term to keep a bid in bonds, even as 2022 is expected to see 2, if not 3 quarter point rate hikes.
• Equities – Nikkei jumped 1.4% after stronger than expected production numbers. The ASX lifted 0.4%. The USA100 surged 1.39% while the USA30 rallied 0.98% just shy of their historic peaks from November.
• USOil – extended gains to 75.82, after surging more than 2% to their highest in a month a day before.
• Gold – rose to $1,815.
• FX markets – Yen lost ground as traders stayed in riskier assets, USDJPY lifted to 114.89, EURUSD 1.1326, Cable trades at 1.3434.

Today – Today’s calendar includes the aforementioned 5-year auction, along with data on home prices with the October S&P/Case Shiller report and the FHFA data. The December Richmond Fed index is also due.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.46%) Retests 0.6815, sustaining 1-month highs. However sentiment remains neutral as fast MAs have flattened while RSI and MACD signal line & histogram are settled at the neutral zone.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 29th December 2021.

Market Update – December 29 – Another bout of risk appetite.

• The Global stock market rally ran out of steam, with Asian markets trading mixed, in combination with year end malaise taking its toll. There was little to no inspiration to drive yields one way or another, leaving rates little changed on the day, but with a curve flattener intact. The USD (USDIndex 96.37) was supported.
• US Yields 10yr has corrected -0.7 bp to 1.47%, as the rally on stocks ran out of steam during Asian hours.
• Tech stocks drove the decline in Hong Kong as markets eye Beijing’s tightening oversight, while China’s property slowdown remains a concern. Bloomberg highlighted that a key gauge of interbank funding costs fell to the lowest level since January, after the central bank added more cash to the financial system – to ease an expected surge in seasonal demand for liquidity.
• Equities – Nikkei down -0.6%, Hang Seng has lost -1.0% as the lockdown in Xian city to curb the spread of COVID-19 continued for the seventh day. The USA100 surged 1.39% while the USA30 rallied 0.98%, just shy of their historic peaks from November. GER30 future is down -0.2% and the UK100 is up 0.6% in catch up trade.
• USOil – at 75.96 as it remains supported and is trading close to a 1-month high after a Bloomberg story saying the American Petroleum Institute reported crude holdings fell by 3.1 million barrels last week. Official data are due later today, but the report is already underpinning prices.
• Gold – down to $1,801.
• FX markets – USD was supported with USDJPY stuck below the psychological 115.00 level at 114.89, EURUSD dipped under1.1300, Cable dropped back to 1.3414.
• Turkish Lira was down around 2% at 12 per US Dollar on the day, bringing losses so far this week to 12%. The beleaguered currency had rebounded more than 50% from record lows around 18 last week, after the country announced some support measures.

Today – The calendar remains light with just the November advance goods trade, wholesale and retail inventory reports, pending home sales, and weekly MBA mortgage numbers and oil inventories.



Biggest FX Mover @ (10:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.24%) has dipped under the 1.13, turning below S1, with fast MAs pointing downwards, RSI flirting with the OS barrier and MACD signal line & histogram negatively configured.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 30th December 2021.

Market Update – December 30 – End-of-year trading is not kind to Treasury bulls.


End-of-year trading was not kind to Treasury bulls as unwinding of the month’s Omicron inspired haven purchases were unwound. The break of key technicals and very thin liquidity conditions exacerbated the climb in rates.

• The USD (USDIndex 96.37) was supported. US Yields sold off after key technical levels were breached and the 7-year auction was poorly subscribed. The 10-year penetrated the 50-day moving average at 1.526% and the 30-year pierced the 100-day moving average at 1.938%, which saw the yields rise to intraday peaks of 1.5548% and 1.9687%. following the auction results. The 2-year yield, meanwhile, was fractionally higher at 0.752%.
• Equities -Broader indexes advanced to fresh all-time highs. The USA30 was up 0.25% to 36,488 and the USA500’s rose 0.14% to 4,793 – 70th new high of the year. The USA100 lagged with a -0.10% loss. The GER30 future is up 0.1%, the UK100 future down -0.1%.
• USOil – at 75.80, bouncing within 75-77 area.
• FX markets – Euro and Sterling dropped back against a largely stronger US Dollar. EURUSD is at 1.1315 and Cable at 1.3473. USDJPY breached 115.20.

Today – Germany is already on holiday again tomorrow, the UK extends the weekend through to Monday and volumes are likely to remain low today, although the calendar still has some interesting releases in Europe. Preliminary inflation data for Spain are due, the Swiss Kof indicator will also be released. US Weekly jobless claims highlight.



Biggest FX Mover @ (10:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.22%) pullback from 1.1398 highs to 1.1314. Fast MAs pointing downwards, RSI flattened though at 42 Stochastick are in OS area while MACD lines decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 3rd January 2022.

Market Update – January 3 – Front foot for the new year.


Welcome to 2022, Evergrande back in the headlines, having defaulted , shares have been suspended, (they fell 90% in 2021) awaiting “inside information”. TESLA beat delivery targets & more woes for the TRY as Inflation hits 19-year highs.

The 2021 close – S&P500 (+27%) , USDIndex +6.3%, 10-yr yields broke 1.5%, Oil & Gas (50% & 48% respectively, Coffee was the best performing commodity +70%, Gold lost –4%). European Banks gained +34%, US Treasuries lost -3% and the Chinese Tech & Property sector collapsed. Inflation (US 6.8% EZ 4.9%, UK 5.1% & Japan 0.1%), Energy & Food costs rallied. Crypto’s volatile & surged (BTC +60%), Meme Stocks monstrously volatile (GameStop +700% – as high as +2,500%) & AMC +1200% (up 3200% at one point). NFT’s arrived (Market Cap 2021 – $22Billion+ vs just $100 million in 2020)

• USD (USDIndex 95.90) recovered from 2021 close at 95.50 zone. US stocks dipped into year end, & Yields also slipped. USOil & Gold both held on to healthy gains.
• US Yields 10 yr traded to 1.51%
• Equities – USA500 -12.55 (-0.26%) at 4766 NASDAQ -0.61%,
• USOil – slipped from $76.00 but held onto $75.00 ahead of OPEC+ meeting tomorrow.
• Gold – spiked to $1831 on the weaker USD, and holds at 1825
• Bitcoin down to 47k
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1340, USDJPY holds over 115.00 & Cable holds over 1.3500.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -11 ticks, US futures are underperforming, while stock futures are higher in Europe and the US. Large parts of Asia were still on holiday today and in Europe, the U.K. remains shut for the extended New Year holiday. The calendar focuses on final manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, which are not expected to bring major revisions and confirm that virus developments have slowed the pace of expansion.

Today – Final Manu PMI’s from EZ – UK, US & Canada remained closed for New-Year



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.43%) Correcting Friday’s rally to 1.1385, trades down to 1.1336 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram lower but above 0 line. RSI 47 and falling, H1 ATR 0.00144 Daily ATR 0.0065.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 4th January 2022.

Market Update – January 4 – USD & Tesla shine as Treasuries get hammered.


Treasuries were hammered to kick off 2022 action as bond bears were in full control, making this the worst start to a year since 2009. Sentiment remains positive, as markets continue to buy into the recovery story. Apple breached the $3 trillion market capitalization mark and TESLA shares rallied +13.5% after block buster deliveries. Sarah Raskin rumoured to be FED Vice Chair for Supervision, suggesting a tighter regime.

• USD (USDIndex 96.30) rallied at US open from 95.50 lows. US stocks hit new all-time highs & Yields lept higher as US Treasuries were slaughtered. USOil dipped under $74.00 before recovering & Gold sank to $1800.
• US Yields 10 yr rocked up to close at 1.62% and trade at 1.63% now
• Equities – USA500 +30 (+0.26%) at 4766, NASDAQ +1.2%; APPL +2.5%, FB +4.01%, ABNB +3.75%, PFE -4.06%, USA500 FUTS now 4795.
• USOil – slipped under $74.00 (rumours of 400k b/d production increase for Feb.) before recovering to $75.60 now ahead of OPEC+ meeting today.
• Gold – spiked down under $1800 from $1831 on open and trades at $1805 now.
• Bitcoin slipped again, down to 45,600, trades at 46,500 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD under 1.1300 at 1.1285, USDJPY moves higher, testing 115.80, Cable back under key 1.3500 at 1.3470.

Overnight – Strong Asian Manu.PMI’s (led by China & JPY) suggest initial Omicron impact on Q4 may be limited. German Retail sales beat significantly (0.6% vs -0.2%)

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -14 ticks, underperforming versus US futures, although they are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.3% and 1.1% respectively, the latter outperforming in catch up trade, as markets returned from the extended holiday weekend. US futures are up 0.2 to 0.3% and it seems overall sentiment remains positive, as markets continue to buy into the recovery story, which is also underpinning a rise in yields.

Today – German Unemployment, UK Manufacturing PMI Final, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US JOLTS, JMMC/OPEC+ meetings.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.43%) Formed a base at 82.85 yesterday rallied on risk-on mood to 83.50 MAs aligned higher MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 59 & rising, H1 ATR 0.130 Daily ATR 0.76.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 5th January 2022.

Market Update – January 5 – Yields higher again, FED minutes in focus.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Treasuries continued under pressure as yields moved up supporting USD, Equities were mixed; Financials and Automaker’s (EV) rallied, US data (Jolts, & ISM Manu PMI’s) missed expectations, OPEC+ delivered production increase for February. Goldmans talked of $100k Bitcoin. US reported 1 million daily COVID cases, Israel says 4th dose effective at increasing antibodies, France discovers new variant with 46 mutations.

• USD (USDIndex 96.30) holds gains supported by higher yields – pressuring the YEN in particular. US stocks (Dow & S&P) hit new all-time highs but Nasdaq lost -1.33%.
• US Yields 10 yr rocked up to close at 1.668% trades at 1.64% now.
• Equities – USA500 -3 (+0.06%) at 4793 Ford (new 20-yr high) +11.67%, GM +7.47% TSLA -4.18%, USA500 FUTS now 4780.
• USOil – spiked over $77.00 trades at $76.75 now post OPEC+ big drawdown in private inventories –
• Gold – holds over $1800 significantly at 1813 now.
• Bitcoin holds over 45,000, trades at 46,400 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD recovered back to 1.1300, USDJPY new-5-yr high at 116.30 now 116.00, Cable back over 1.3500 at 1.3530.

Overnight – Tech stock in particular were under pressure in Asia from stronger USD & higher US yields.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming, as stock markets started to correct from recent highs. Travel and tourism shares boosted indexes yesterday, but market sentiment started to turn overnight and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.2%.

Today – EZ & US Composite/Services PMI (Final), US ADP, FOMC minutes



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.33%) Sank to 1.6540 earlier and has rallied to 1.6620, yesterday’s high breached 1.6660. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher, but below 0 line. RSI 57.80 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0020 Daily ATR 0.0120.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 6th January 2022.

Market Update – January 6 – Hawkish Fed – Rate hikes on the way.


‘A “very tight” job market and unabated inflation might require the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than expected and begin reducing its overall asset holdings as a second brake on the economy, US central bank policymakers said in their meeting last month.’ – Reuters

Stocks tanked, Yields spiked and the USD held firm as EM & commodity currencies sank.

• USD (USDIndex 96.30) holds gains supported by higher yields – pressuring the commodity complex in particular. US stocks tanked (Dow & S&P) down -1% & -1.94% respectively with NASDAQ losing 522 points -3.34%
• US Yields 10-yr rocked up to close at 1.70% trades higher again at 1.73% now.
• Equities – USA500 -96 (-1.94%) at 4700 TSLA -5.35%, AT&T +2.22%. As value stocks gained and growth stocks were hit the hardest, USA500 FUTS now 4691.
• USOil – spiked over $78.00 trades at $76.84 inventory drawdown not as big as expected and a big build in gasoline storage
• Gold – down to $1800 sagain after test & rejection of 1830.
• Bitcoin sinks under holds over 45,000, trades at 43,200 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1285, USDJPY off 5-yr highs under 116.00 at 155.90, Cable tested 1.3600 aback to test 1.3500 now.

Overnight – Chinese Services PMI’s & German Factory Orders both better than expected. Asian share followed US lower –

European Open – Risk-Off – The March 10-year Bund future is down -38 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. Overnight and mounting concern of an accelerating tightening schedule in the US has been adding to pressure on stock markets overnight. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently posting losses of -1.5% and -1.4% respectively and US futures are down -0.3-0.6% with the NASDAQ future underperforming as tech stocks continue to struggle.

Today – Preliminary German inflation data for December, Eurozone PPI, final UK Services PMI, US Weekly Claims, ISM Services PMI and US Factory Orders.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.10%) RISK OFF Fed inspired tank to Sank to 82.90 from 84.34 yesterday. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram lower & well below 0 line. RSI 16.06 and significantly OB, H1 ATR 0.1820 Daily ATR 0.8000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 7th January 2022.

Market Update – January 7 – Yields dominate sentiment.


Risk aversion recedes – Stocks stabilize but it’s all about the Yields & sharp rise in short-term 2-yr in particular. USD softer again, Oil rallies, Gold & BTC sink again. Key FED hawk Bullard, talked of actual rate hikes as early as March & that inflation will remain over 3% for all of 2022. Claims missed a tad at 207k vs 200k but remain in strong downtrend, but Services PMI’s missed significantly (62 vs. 67 & 69.1 prior). Another Chinese real estate developer (Shimao) missed bond payments.

• USD (USDIndex 96.20) slips but holds gains supported by higher yields – pressuring the commodity complex in particular.
• US Yields 10-yr rocked up AGAIN to close at 1.733% trades at 1.72% now.
• Equities – USA500 -4.53 (-0.10%) at 4696 as value & cyclical stocks gained and growth stocks pressured. USA500 FUTS now 4700.
• USOil – has spiked over $79.00 trades at $79.75 – 3 key drivers – (i) further unrest in Kazakhstan (Govt removed cap on fuel & heating oils on Jan 1 – prices have rocketed & Russia have sent troops! (ii) Supply cuts in Libya & shutdowns in Canada (iii) Tight inventories.
• Gold – down under $1800 again to test support at $1788.
• Bitcoin sinks to test next support at 42,000 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1300, USDJPY under 116.00 at 115.85, Cable back to 1.3545 from 1.3500.

Overnight – JPY data – weaker, German Industrial Production missed

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher as are US Treasury futures. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.04% and 0.16% respectively. Markets are waiting for key US payroll numbers in the afternoon, which will be an important piece of the puzzle for the increasingly hawkish Fed. In Europe the calendar is also pretty busy with trade and production numbers for Germany, consumer spending data for France and preliminary inflation numbers and the latest ESI economic sentiment reading for the Eurozone. Overall the data is likely to support the hawkish camp at the ECB and after Lagarde committed to keep net asset purchases going for most of this year, it will likely become clear that the ECB is falling behind the curve, as Omicron is unlikely to derail the global recovery.

Today – UK Construction PMI, EZ CPI (Flash), Economic Sentiment, US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, Fed’s Barkin, Bostic & Daly.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.18%) Rallied from 1.8640 lows on Wednesday to 1.8940 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram lower but well above 0 line. RSI 73 OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.00198 Daily ATR 0.01000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 10th January 2022.

Market Update – January 10 – Cautiousness ahead of US CPI.


Inflation worries and the Fed’s hawkishness prompted buying in shares like banks that usually perform well in a high interest rate environment, while high-growth stocks were routed. Share markets made cautious gains so far today as US jobs report giving the greenlight to investors to counted down to another US inflation reading that could well set the seal on an early rate hike from the Federal Reserve, lifting bond yields yet further. Going from uber-accommodation in November liftoff as soon as March, multiple rate hikes in 2022, and subsequent balance sheet shrinkage in a matter of two months spiked Treasury yields. Volatility in stocks jumped as investors repriced for the new conditions.

The explosion in coronavirus cases globally also threatens to crimp consumer spending and growth just as the Fed is considering turning off the liquidity spigots, tough timing for markets addicted to endless cheap money. – Reuters

• USD (USDIndex 96.20) slips but holds gains supported by higher yields – 95.88 currently.
• US Yields 10-yr is coming off of its worst week in years thanks to the FOMC’s pivot to the hawkish side, and as government and corporate supply picks up. Key technical levels were also broken to exacerbate the selloff. It will be hard pressed to rally unless there are signs Omicron will take more of a toll on growth than currently anticipated, suggesting the FOMC will not need to boost rates as aggressively as feared.
• Equities – US equities closing in the red. USA100 had struggled at the end of last week, but frayed nerves have started to calm – for now – USA100 at 15664. USA500 at 50DMA below 4700. Tech stocks in Hong Kong rebounded, which saw the Hang Seng lifting 0.8%. Stock markets across Asia traded mixed, in quiet trade, with Japan on holiday today.
• USOil – held firm,sustaining last week’s gains at 78.70
• Gold – at $1794.
• FX markets – EURUSD corrected to 1.1341 amid broader pressure on the Euro, USDJPY rebounded to 115.75, Cable steady at 2-month high at 1.3590.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -13 ticks, US futures are posting similar losses, as yields continue to rise against the background of rising inflation and easing virus concerns. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.2%, as stock market sentiment improved at the start of the week.

Today – Central bank outlooks and virus developments will remain the focus of attention this week, with investors likely to keep a close eye on upcoming Fedspeak. For today though the calendar is pretty light on both sides of the Atlantic with only Eurozone unemployment and US Wholesale inventories are scheduled.



Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) CADCHF (+0.33%) Rallied to 0.7289 extending to Decmber’s highs. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram well above 0 line. RSI 75 OB but still rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.