HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Date: 12th April 2024.

Producer Inflation On The Rise, But Will Earnings Hold Demand Steady?

• Producer inflation rose slightly less than previous expectations, but the annual figure continues to rise. The annual PPI rose to 2.1% and the Core PPI rose to 2.4%.
• The NASDAQ and SNP500 end the day higher, but the Dow Jones continues to struggle.
• This morning earnings kick off with the banking sector including JP Morgan, BlackRock and Wells Fargo. All 3 stocks trade higher during pre-trading hours.
• The Euro trades lower against all currencies despite the ECB’s attempt to establish a hawkish tone.

USA100 – The NASDAQ Climbs Higher, But Is the Growth Sustainable?

The NASDAQ was the only index which did not witness a significant decline at the opening of the US session. In addition to this, the USA100 is the only index which is witnessing indications of a bullish market.

The price has crossed onto a higher high breaking the resistance level at $18,269. The index is also trading above the 75-Bar EMA and at the 65.00 level on the RSI which signals buyers are controlling the market. However, a similar large bullish impulse wave was also formed on the 3rd and 5th of the month and was followed by a correction. Therefore, investors need to be cautious of a bearish breakout which may signal a correction back to the 75-bar EMA (18,165). The medium-term growth and its sustainability will depend on the upcoming earnings data.

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HFM · Apr 12, 2024 at 5:51 PM

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 15th April 2024.

Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict.
• However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict.
• New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70.
• The Yen dip against USD to 153.85.
• USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce.
• Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180.
  d86b3b8c9fa1a15147f6e31cb2e433f9
  HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
  
  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
  
  Click HERE to READ more Market news.
  
  Andria Pichidi
  Market Analyst
  HFMarkets
  
  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  

 

Date: 16th April 2024.

Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows.
• Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets.
• Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance.
• Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields.
• Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation.
• There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs.
• UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE.
• China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon.
• Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook.
• Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level.
• Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed.
• USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel.
• 68b0e32796a335024b9802981dbe7f6d.png
  HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
  
  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
  
  Click HERE to READ more Market news.
  
  Andria Pichidi
  Market Analyst
  HFMarkets
  
  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  

 

Date: 17th April 2024.

Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed.
• Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.”
• Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024.
• US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks.
• UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts.
• Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5.
• IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report.

Financial Markets Performance:

• USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention.
• USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel.
• Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar.

Market Trends:

• Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively.
• Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 18th April 2024.

Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs.
• Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies.
• US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack.
• President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.
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  Market Trends:
  
  • Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12.
  • The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1.
  • European and US futures are finding buyers.
  • A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction.
  • The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates.
  Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
  
  Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
  
  Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
  
  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
  
  Click HERE to READ more Market news.
  
  Andria Pichidi
  Market Analyst
  HFMarkets
  
  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  

 

Date: 19th April 2024.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Oil Prices Correct and Supply Concerns Persist.



The ongoing developments in the Middle East sparked a wave of risk aversion and fueled supply concerns and investors headed for safety. Hopes for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve diminish while attention is now turning towards the demand outlook.

The Gold price hit a high of $2417.89 per ounce overnight. Sentiment has already calmed down again and bullion is trading at $2376.50 per ounce as haven flows ease. Oil prices initially moved higher as concern over escalating tensions with the WTI contract hit a session high of $85.508 per barrel overnight, before correcting to currently $81.45 per barrel.

Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Middle East Tensions

Last week, commodity indexes showed little movement, with Oil prices undergoing a slight correction. Meanwhile, Gold reached yet another record high, mirroring the upward trend in cocoa prices.

Once again today, USOil prices experienced a correction and has remained under pressure, retesting the 50-day EMA at $81.00 as we moving into the weekend. Hence, despite the Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, sentiments stabilized following reports suggesting a measured response aimed at avoiding further escalation. Brent crude futures witnessed a more than 4% leap, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, only to subsequently erase all gains. Similarly with USOIL, UKOIL hovers just below $87 per barrel, marginally below Thursday’s closing figures.

Nevertheless, volatility is expected to continue in the market as several potential risks loom:

1. Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz: The possibility of Iran disrupting navigation through the vital shipping lane, is still in play. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the Persian Gulf’s primary route to international waters, with approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Recent events, including Iran’s seizure of an Israel-linked container ship, underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the region.
2. Tougher Sanctions on Iran: Analysts speculate that the US may impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports or intensify enforcement of existing restrictions. With global oil consumption reaching 102 million barrels per day, Iran’s production of 3.3 million barrels remains significant. Recent actions targeting Venezuelan oil highlight the potential for increased pressure on Iranian exports.
3. OPEC Output Increases: Despite the desire for higher prices, OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have constrained output in recent years. However, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could prompt concerns about demand and incentivize increased production. The OPEC may opt to boost oil output should tensions escalate further and prices surge.
4. Ukraine Conflict: Amidst the focus on the Middle East, markets overlooking Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.

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HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 22nd April 2024.

The NASDAQ Gains As Earnings Gain Momentum, But More Bad News For Tesla.

• Investors turn their attention to the “magnificent seven” and earnings reports as the countdown begins.
• The NASDAQ and most global indices trade higher on Monday with the NASDAQ leading gains. Investors concentrating on earnings from Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet and Tesla.
• Tesla announces it will slash its prices once again as sales decline. The stock trades almost 41% lower in 2024.
• The Euro gains momentum as the European Cash Open nears and is the best performing G7 currency of the day so far.

USA100 – Earnings Season Gains Momentum, More Bad News for Tesla

Last week the NASDAQ’s decline marked the worst week since November 2022, but the price trades higher on Monday. Currently the NASDAQ is the best performing global index, but its performance will largely be dependent on earnings.

So far, technical analysis is still indicating a downward trend and continues to form higher lows as well as highs. The asset also continues to trade lower than the main trend lines, Moving Averages and in the “sell” zone of the RSI. Based on the past 3 retracements, the average retracement size is 1.41%, which means similar retracements could see the price rise a further 0.42%. If the price rises above this level or above $17,234 (Fibonacci retracement 60.0 level), the possibility of a correction or new trend rises.

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HFM · Apr 22, 2024 at 4:27 PM

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 23rd April 2024.

European PMIs Paint Mixed Picture, ECB advise a June Cut is Certain.

• The German DAX recorded its highest monthly increase as investors continue to predict a weaker EU monetary policy.
• JP Morgan again advised stocks are overcrowded and may see a stronger downward correction. However, economists advise this is only possible if geo-political tension escalates or companies fail to beat earnings predictions.
• Gold witnesses its strongest decline in 2024 falling 2.64% on Monday and a further 1.32% during this morning’s Asian session.
• The Euro is the best performing currency after the day’s PMI releases. However, investors should note that the US Dollar during the Asian session was performing significantly better.

USA500 – Visa and Tesla Ready Shareholders For Earnings Release!

The SNP500 rose 0.87% during the US trading session and also broke the previous swing high. However, JP Morgan again told journalists there are signs that the stock market is “overcrowded”. When institutions are overexposed to certain stocks or industries, it only takes one big fund to start de-levering and then others will follow.

Though, investors should note that this would also depend on three factors. The first is earnings, the second is geo-political tensions and the third is inflation. This week, investors will largely watch earnings, particularly Visa and Tesla. Visa and Tesla currently hold a weight of 2.00% and are two of the most influential stocks. Tesla continues to be one of the worst performing stocks, but Visa’s earnings are less certain.

Visa has beat earnings and revenue expectations over the past 4 occasions but has been struggling over the past 30 days. Analysts expect earnings and revenue to remain at the same level compared to the previous quarter. However, higher earnings can potentially increase demand. Visa stocks have risen 5.20% in 2024 and have a dividend yield of 0.76%.



However, as mentioned above, the performance of the stock market will largely depend also on inflation and geo-political tensions. Though these are not likely to change within the upcoming days. In regard to inflation, investors will be eager to see if inflation again rises, in which case, interest rate cuts will likely not be possible for 2024. If this scenario materialises, stocks can decline between 20-30% ($3,700-$4,220).

GER30 – ECB Ready To Cut Rates In June 2024!

On a 2-hour timeframe the price of the GER30 is trading above the 75-Bar EMA and above the VWAP. In addition to this, the asset is obtaining buy signals also from oscillators and price action. The index has retraced since the release of the European PMI data, but if the price rises above 18,067, without breaking the day’s low price, buy signals will become active.



One of the key drivers, along with this morning’s PMI release for Germany and France, is the latest comments from members of the ECB. According to ECB representative Mr Villeroy, even if oil remains volatile, the regulator will look to cut in June 2024. In addition to Mr Villeroy, Mr De Guindos told journalists that a rate cut in June is “crystal clear”. The guidance given is increasing the demand for the German DAX as are indications of stronger economic data.

The French PMI data saw the Services index rise above 50.00 for the first time since May 2023 and beat expectations. However, the manufacturing index continues to struggle and fell compared to the previous month. The German PMI was a similar picture. The Services PMI rose to a 10-month high and beat expectations, but the Manufacturing Index read lower than the 42.8 expectations and is at a 6-month low.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 24th April 2024.

Market News – Stock markets strengthen as tech rally widens.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• The bulls are back in town for now. Wall Street climbed, led by tech and especially the Magnificent 7 — all cohorts rallied, even Tesla which broke a 7-session losing streak even as its earnings news was awaited.
• US: The weaker than expected PMI data from S&P Global was the excuse needed to underpin a short covering rally in Treasuries after the big selloff in April.
• Record US Auction boosted demand! A well bid 2-year sale also added to the gains in Treasuries, while signs of future price pressures saw the long end underperform. Demand petered out into the finish, however, especially with the surge on Wall Street, and yields edged off their lows.
• Australia: The hot inflation print pointed to sticky local price pressures and reinforced the case for the RBA to hold rates at a 12-year high. The CPI rose to 3.6% y/y VS 3.5% estimate, while core CPI rose 4%, also higher than forecast and well above the RBA’s 2-3% target.
• Japan: Strong warning for intervention by officials. The BoJ is widely expected on Friday to leave policy settings & bond purchase amounts unchanged.
• NEW YORK (AP) — The Biden administration has finalized a new rule set to make millions more salaried workers eligible for overtime pay in the US.

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Market Trends:

• The NASDAQ increased 1.59%, with the S&P500 up 1.20%, while the Dow rallied 0.69%. Dissipating geopolitical risks also supported.
• EU stock futures are posting gains, after a largely stronger close across Asia. Nikkei and Hang Seng gained more than 2% amid a strengthening tech rally. Australian shares underperformed.
• Tesla Inc. (+13.33% after hours) spiked after its statement for the launch of more affordable vehicles despite a sales miss. The stock halted a 7-day plunge, climbing alongside other members of the group.
• Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc. are also due to report earnings this week. Profits for the “Magnificent Seven” group — which also includes Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Nvidia Corp. — are forecast to rise about 40% in the Q1 a year ago, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. The group of tech megacaps is crucial to the S&P 500 since the companies carry the heaviest weightings in the benchmark.
• Visa revenue advanced by 17% as Consumer Card spending increased.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 25th April 2024.

Investors Monitor a Potential Japanese Intervention, and upcoming Tech Earnings.

• Meta stocks top earnings expectations, but revenue guidance for the next 6 months triggers significant selloff. Meta stocks decline 15.00% and the Magnificent Seven also trade lower.
• Japanese Authorities are on watch and most market experts predict the Japanese Federal Government will intervene once again.
• The Japanese Yen is the day’s worst performing currency while the Australian Dollar continues to top the charts.
• The US Dollar trades 0.10% lower, but this afternoon’s performance is likely to be dependent on the US GDP.

USA100 – Meta Stocks Fall 15% On the Next 6-Months Guidance

The NASDAQ has declined 1.51% over the past 24 hours, unable to maintain momentum from Monday and Tuesday. Technical analysts advise the decline is partially simply a break in the bullish momentum and the asset continues to follow a bullish correction pattern. However, if the decline continues throughout the day, the retracement scenario becomes a lesser possibility.

In terms of indications and technical analysis, most oscillators, and momentum-based signals point to a downward price movement. The USA100 trades below the 75-Bar EMA, below the VWAP and the RSI hovers above 40.00. All these factors point towards a bearish trend. The bearish signals are also likely to strengthen if the price declines below $17,295.11.



The stock which is experiencing considerably large volatility is Meta which has fallen more than 15.00%. The past quarter’s earnings beat expectations and according to economists, remain stable and strong. Earnings Per Share beat expectations by 8.10% and revenue was as expected. However, company expenses significantly rose in the past quarter and the guidance for the second half of the year is lower than previous expectations. These two factors have caused investors to consider selling their shares and cashing in their profits.

Meta’s decline is one of the main causes for the USA100’s bearish trend. CFRA Senior Analyst, Angelo Zino, advises the selloff may be a slight over reaction based on earnings data. If Meta stocks rise again, investors can start to evaluate a possible upward correction. However, a concern for investors is that more and more companies are indicating caution for the second half of the year.

The price movements will largely now depend on Microsoft and Alphabet earnings tonight after market close. Microsoft is the most influential stock for the NASDAQ and Alphabet is the third. The two make up 14.25% of the overall index. If the two companies also witness their stocks decline after the earnings reports, the USA100 may struggle to gain upward momentum.

EURJPY – Will Japan Intervene Again?

In the currency market, the Japanese Yen remains within the spotlight as investors believe the Japanese Federal Government is likely to again intervene. The Federal Government has previously intervened in the past 12 months which caused a sharp rise in the Yen before again declining. The government opted for this option in an attempt to hinder a further decline.

Volatility within the Japanese Yen will also depend on today’s US GDP reading and tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. However, investors will more importantly pay close attention to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. Investors will be keen to see if the central bank believes it is appropriate to again hike in 2024 as well as comment regarding inflation and the economy.



In terms of technical analysis, breakout levels can be considered as areas where the exchange rate may retrace or correct. Breakout levels can be seen at 166.656 and 166.333. However, the only indicators pointing to a decline are the RSI and similar oscillators which advise the price is at risk of being “overbought”.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 26th April 2024.

Alphabet Easily Beat Earnings Predictions But Focus Shifts to Today’s PCE Data.

• Microsoft and Alphabet’s earnings reports beat expectations pushing the NASDAQ to the top of the charts.
• The Bank of Japan keep interest rates unchanged applying pressure on the Japanese Yen. The Yen Index declines 0.36% and is down 40% against the USD over the past 5 years.
• The US GDP growth rate falls below its 2.5% expectations, reading 1.6%, but economists advise the Fed may only cut once in 2024!
• The market turns its attention to the Core PCE Price Index which analysts expect to fall from 2.8% to 2.6%.

USA100 – Alphabet Easily Beat Analysts’ Earnings Predictions and Sees its P/E Ratio Fall!

The price of the NASDAQ ended the day higher and rose to a slightly higher high. As a result, the index is close to forming a traditional bullish trend and making Wednesday’s decline a retracement or medium-term correction. In terms technical analysis, indicators are mainly indicating a reverting price condition where the asset cannot maintain longer term momentum. However, momentum indications provide a slight bullish bias.



The upward price movement is being driven by earnings reports from Microsoft and Alphabet which beat earnings expectations. Microsoft is the most influential stock for the NASDAQ while Alphabet is the third most influential. Alphabet’s earnings beat expectations by 21.61% and revenue rose more than $6 billion. As a result, the price of the stock rose 11.56% after market close.

Furthermore, Microsoft’s Earnings Per Share beat Wall Street’s expectations by 3.40% and revenue by 1.50%. The stock rose by 4.30% after market close and is close to trading at the all-time high. However, investors should note that from the “magnificent 7”, Alphabet and Meta have the lowest Price to Earnings ratio. Meaning these stocks are the most likely to be trading below their intrinsic value.

However, investors should note that negatives for the stock market in general remain. This also supports the bias shown by technical analysis. The GDP growth rate fell considerably below expectations while inflation data continues to show signs of rising prices. Investors will closely be monitoring today’s Core PCE Price Index which is the most watched index by the Federal Reserve. Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to fall from 2.8% to 2.6%. If the index reads more than 0.3%, a rate cut will become unlikely making stocks less attractive.

Whereas, if the PCE Price Index is not as high as expectations, Bond Yields will likely decline, as will the US Dollar and a rate cut will be put back on the table. As a result, investors may look to take advantage of the strong earnings and continue purchasing stocks.

USDJPY – BOJ Hold Interest Rates Unchanged!

The price of the USDJPY exchange rate again rose to an all-time recent high after increasing in value for 3 consecutive days. Trend and momentum-based indicators point towards a higher price. However, the exchange rate is trading within the overbought range of most oscillators and is also showing a divergence pattern. Both are known to indicate a decline, but not necessarily a complete change of trend.

The Bank of Japan’s statement from earlier this morning was largely “dovish” and gave no clear indication that the central bank wishes to keep rising interest rates. However, shortly the Governor will answer questions from journalists and may give a more hawkish tone. Either way, investors are mainly concentrating on if the Federal Government will again opt to intervene within the currency market. Most economists believe the intervention will only come if the USD continues to rise and it will not be before the Core PCE Price Index.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 29th April 2024.

Market News – Yen spikes after drifting to 1990’s levels.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• The Yen recovered sharply following a plunge to its lowest level in 34 years (USDJPY above 160 for the first time since 1990), prompting speculation of potential intervention by authorities. – The volatility was attributed in part to thin liquidity due to a public holiday in Japan.
• Japan’s Kanda Said: ‘No Comment for Now’ when asked if intervened.
• Note: Japan is closed for holidays – Showa Day
• European and US stock futures climbed, mirroring a positive trend in Asian markets.
• China industrial profit growth slowed sharply. Data will add to concerns that the government is struggling to maintain growth momentum.
• Chinese stocks led the rally in Asia, supported by increased foreign investment and improved earnings. Property shares surged following positive developments, including major developer CIFI Holdings Group Co. resolving liquidity issues with bondholders.
• US Treasury returns have declined by 2.3% this month – largest monthly drop since February 2023. Market sentiment now suggests only one Fed rate reduction for 2024.
• Geopolitics: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is engaged in efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza during meetings in the Middle East today.

Financial Markets Performance:

• USDJPY hit a session high of 160.17 before the sharp bounce in the Yen, not just against the Dollar. Markets saw the bounce as sign of possible government intervention, with Japanese banks reportedly dumping dollars aggressively. USDJPY fell as low at 155.06, but has already inched up to 157.02.
• The USDIndex fell back to 105.30 across all of its G7 peers.
• USOIL steady at $82-60-83.00 per barrel and Gold is also consolidating at $2330 per ounce.

Market Trends:

• Stock markets rallied overnight, with the Nikkei gaining 0.8% as the Yen rallied amid intervention speculation. The Hang Seng jumped 0.98%, the CSI 300 lifted 1.3%.
• The S&P500 rallied 1% to finish its first winning week in the last four. The Dow rose 153 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 2%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 30th April 2024.

Market News – Cautiousness ahead of Fed, NFP & Earnings.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Trading remains quiet in a very busy week of data, earnings, supply, NFP and the Fed.
• Treasury yields and Wall Street posted small gains on the day but overall reain steady. It looks like fatigue has set in for the bears after knocking bonds and stocks sharply lower on the month.
• European equity futures are also steady, while the USD rose slightly against the G7 amid speculation the Fed may take a more hawkish tone when announcing its policy decision on Wednesday.
• German retail sales bounced 1.8% m/m in March. Sales were still down -2.7% y/y, but the rebound at the end of the first quarter is encouraging and suggests that higher wages and lower inflation are boosting consumption trends.
• German import price inflation was higher than expected. With the Euro lower against the Dollar, import price inflation is set to continue to nudge higher.
• French GDP expanded 0.2% q/q in the Q1 of the year.
• Japan’s unemployment unexpectedly was at 2.6% in March 2024, the same pace as in the prior month.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex recovered slightly but holds below 105.90.
• After the assumed MoF intervention to support the Yen USDJPY was knocked down to an intraday low of 154.54 from a new 34-year high of 160.17.
• Soft Commodities: Top losers are Cocoa (-11.15%) and Wheat (-9.84%). Gains are led by Sugar (3.74%), Cotton (1.57%) and Rapeseed (1.25%).
• Metals: Top gainers are Platinum (3.70%) and Copper (2.12%). Biggest losers are Steel Rebar (-0.81%) and Silver (-0.50%). In addition, there was a slight change on Gold (-0.14%).
• Energies: Top commodity gainers are Natural gas (6.78%). Biggest losers are Natural Gas UK GBP (-4.89%), Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF (-3.85%) and Crude Oil WTI (-1.22%). In addition, there was a slight change on Brent Crude Oil (-1.09%).

Market Trends:

• Stocks were modestly higher with gains of 0.39% on the Dow, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ advancing 0.32% and 0.35%, respectively.
• Tesla rallied as much as 15% after receiving the green light for full self-driving technology in China, while Trump Media jumped 12% to boost gains on Wall Street.
• Earnings releases this week from the biggest US players include Amazon, McDonald’s, Apple and Coca-Cola. Meanwhile, Paramount is expected to post its earnings after today’s close.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 1st May 2024.

Understanding the Implications of the FOMC Meeting.


The FOMC will issue its post-meeting statement at 18:00 GMT tonight. “High-for-longer” is the expected outcome (but not higher) given more indications that progress on bringing inflation sustainably down to the 2% target has stalled out. With no new quarterly forecasts, it will be all about Chair Powell’s press conference when the Fed announces its policy stance tonight.

The major question at this point will be how hawkish will he be?
It is unlikely to be any more hawkish than what the markets are pricing in. Indeed, Chair Powell will have to acknowledge that the data are going the wrong way and he may even pre-empt the likely first question out of the box, “is a rate hike in the cards?”

Meanwhile, Fed funds futures have not only fully priced out chances for a rate cut for this meeting and for June, but July as well. Risk for a reduction in September fell to below 50-50 on the initial spike in implied rates on the ECI news. The November contract reflects 20 bps in cuts, with a full quarter point easing now not seen until December. The FOMC is also expected to announce a slowing in Treasury runoff for June.

Economic Projections & Market Interpretation:
The March update of the SEP revealed notable adjustments in key economic indicators. GDP forecasts for 2024 experienced a substantial upward revision, reflecting a more optimistic outlook with a growth rate of 2.1%, up from 1.4% in December. Similarly, projections for 2025 saw improvements, with the median jobless rate forecasts showing mixed trends but generally aligning with recent patterns. Expectations for headline and core PCE chain price indices also witnessed slight adjustments, indicating potential shifts in inflation dynamics.

During the March meeting, the “dot plot” estimates hinted at a dovish stance by Fed members, with no indications of further rate hikes and median estimates suggesting potential rate cuts in 2024. This interpretation led markets to anticipate the initiation of quarterly rate cuts starting in June. As investors await the June SEP update, there is speculation about further adjustments in GDP estimates, PCE chain price indices, and the potential revision of rate cut expectations.




Analyzing the labor market reveals a complex picture of recovery and ongoing challenges. Payrolls have shown resilience in 2024, surpassing the previous year’s averages, albeit with variations across sectors. Despite improvements, the jobless rate remains a focal point, with fluctuations reflecting broader economic conditions. Additionally, metrics like the U-6 rate and wage growth provide insights into the labor market’s health and potential inflationary pressures.

Inflation Trends and Consumption Patterns:
Inflation dynamics have been closely monitored, particularly amid recent fluctuations in commodity prices and supply chain disruptions. While recent CPI and PCE chain price measures suggest some moderation in inflationary pressures, concerns linger about the sustainability of these trends. The Fed’s attention to inflation remains paramount, shaping expectations for future policy actions.

Consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, has exhibited resilience despite ongoing uncertainties. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) have maintained positive growth rates, contributing to overall GDP expansion. However, shifts in consumption patterns and potential impacts on future economic performance warrant careful observation.

Market Expectations and Implications:
As the FOMC meeting approaches, market participants are closely monitoring economic indicators and policy developments for insights into future market dynamics. The verbiage of the Fed statement and subsequent press briefing will be scrutinized for any hints regarding the timing of potential policy adjustments. Investors should remain vigilant and adaptable, considering the evolving economic landscape and its implications for investment strategies.

The upcoming FOMC meeting holds significant implications for investors and economic stakeholders. Understanding recent economic developments, market expectations, and potential policy shifts is essential for navigating the dynamic financial environment. By staying informed and proactive, investors can position themselves to capitalize on emerging opportunities while managing risks effectively.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 2nd May 2024.

Market News – Stocks mixed; Yen support still on; Eyes on NFP & Apple tonight.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• As the Fed maintained a “high-for-longer” stance, stocks gave up their gains with attention turning back to earnings.
• Chair Powell and the Fed were not as hawkish as feared and the markets reacted immediately and in textbook fashion to the still dovish policy stance.
• The Fed flagged that recent disappointing inflation readings could make rate cuts a while in coming, but Fed chief Jerome Powell characterized the risk of more hikes as “unlikely,” giving some solace to markets.
• Stocks traded mixed across Asia, while in Europe, DAX and FTSE futures are finding buyers and US futures are also in demand, after the Fed’s message.
• Yen: Another suspected intervention by authorities, this time in late New York trading, ran into resistance from traders keen to keep selling the currency.
• Swiss CPI lifted to 1.4% y/y in April from 1.0% y/y in the previous month. Headline numbers are still at low levels and base effects play a role, with the different timing of Easter this year also likely to distort the picture. That said, the numbers may not question the SNB’s decision to cut rates, but they do not support another rate cut in June.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex has corrected to 105.58, but USDJPY is already inching higher again, after a sharp drop to a low of 153.04 on Tuesday that sparked fresh intervention speculation. The pair is currently trading at 155.38.
• Treasury yields plunged and were down over double digits before profit taking set in.
• USOIL finished with a -3.6% loss to $79.00, the lowest since March 12. Currently it is as $79.53.
• Gold was up 1.4% to $2319.55 per ounce, reclaiming the $2300 level.

Market Trends:

• Wall Street climbed initially with gains of 1.4% on the NASDAQ, 1.2% on the Dow, and 0.96% on the S&P500. The NASDAQ and S&P500 closed with losses of -0.3%, while the Dow was 0.23% firmer.
• The Hang Seng rallied more than 2%, and the ASX also posting slight gains, while CSI 300 and Nikkei declined.
• Apple’s earnings report is due after the US market closes today, will give investors a better sense of how the iPhone maker is weathering a sales slump, due in part to a sluggish China market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 2nd May 2024.

Market News – Stocks mixed; Yen support still on; Eyes on NFP & Apple tonight.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• As the Fed maintained a “high-for-longer” stance, stocks gave up their gains with attention turning back to earnings.
• Chair Powell and the Fed were not as hawkish as feared and the markets reacted immediately and in textbook fashion to the still dovish policy stance.
• The Fed flagged that recent disappointing inflation readings could make rate cuts a while in coming, but Fed chief Jerome Powell characterized the risk of more hikes as “unlikely,” giving some solace to markets.
• Stocks traded mixed across Asia, while in Europe, DAX and FTSE futures are finding buyers and US futures are also in demand, after the Fed’s message.
• Yen: Another suspected intervention by authorities, this time in late New York trading, ran into resistance from traders keen to keep selling the currency.
• Swiss CPI lifted to 1.4% y/y in April from 1.0% y/y in the previous month. Headline numbers are still at low levels and base effects play a role, with the different timing of Easter this year also likely to distort the picture. That said, the numbers may not question the SNB’s decision to cut rates, but they do not support another rate cut in June.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex has corrected to 105.58, but USDJPY is already inching higher again, after a sharp drop to a low of 153.04 on Tuesday that sparked fresh intervention speculation. The pair is currently trading at 155.38.
• Treasury yields plunged and were down over double digits before profit taking set in.
• USOIL finished with a -3.6% loss to $79.00, the lowest since March 12. Currently it is as $79.53.
• Gold was up 1.4% to $2319.55 per ounce, reclaiming the $2300 level.

Market Trends:

• Wall Street climbed initially with gains of 1.4% on the NASDAQ, 1.2% on the Dow, and 0.96% on the S&P500. The NASDAQ and S&P500 closed with losses of -0.3%, while the Dow was 0.23% firmer.
• The Hang Seng rallied more than 2%, and the ASX also posting slight gains, while CSI 300 and Nikkei declined.
• Apple’s earnings report is due after the US market closes today, will give investors a better sense of how the iPhone maker is weathering a sales slump, due in part to a sluggish China market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 7th May 2024.

Dow Jones Close To 1-Month High, Eyes on Disney Earnings.

• The stock market trades at a 3-week high after significant support from the latest earning reports and US employment data.
• Economists continue to expect a rate cut no earlier than September 2024 despite the US unemployment rate rising to 3.9%.
• The US Dollar Index trades higher on Tuesday and fully corrects the decline from NFP Friday.
• Dow Jones investors wait for Disney to release their latest quarterly earnings data. The stock holds a weight of 1.93%.

USDJPY – The US Dollar Regains Lost Ground

The USDJPY is an interesting pair on Tuesday as the US Dollar is the best performing currency within the market while the Yen is witnessing the strongest decline. Investors will continue to monitor as we enter the European Cash Open to ensure no significant changes. The exchange rate has been declining since the 29th of April when the Japanese Government is believed to have intervened and strengthened the Yen. However, the US Dollar has been gaining over the past 24 hours. During this morning’s Asian Session, the exchange rate trades 0.44% higher.



Currently the only concern for the US Dollar is the latest employment data which illustrates a potential slowing employment sector. However, investors are quick to point out that this cannot be known simply from 1 weak month. This is the first time the NFP data read lower since November 2023. No major data is in the calendar for the next two days which can influence the US Dollar. Despite the weaker employment data and lower wage growth, investors continue to predict a rate cut no earlier than September 2024. This is something which can also be seen on the CME FedWatch Tool, which shows a 34.3% chance of rates remaining unchanged in September.

In regard to the Japanese Yen, most analysts expect the next rate increase in the second half of this year depending on a stable movement of inflation. In addition, investors are monitoring the actions of financial authorities, expecting new currency interventions from them against a weakening Yen. This is the main concern for investors speculating against the Yen. However, economists continue to advise the Yen will struggle to gain even with a small rate hike, unless the rest of the financial world starts cutting rates.

USA30 – Investors Turn To Disney Earnings Data!

The Dow Jones is close to trading at a 1-month high and is also trading slightly higher this morning. The index recently has been supported by the latest employment data which indicates a higher possibility of rate cuts by the Fed. Today investors focus on the quarterly earnings report for Disney.

Disney stocks are trading 0.37% higher during this morning’s pre-trading hours indicating investors believe the report will be positive. So far this year the stock is trading 28.40% higher and is one of the better performing stocks. Yesterday, the stock rose by 2.47% but remains significantly lower than its all-time high of $197. Currently analysts believe the earnings data will either be similar to the previous quarter or slightly lower. If earnings and revenue read higher, the stock is likely to continue rising. The stock is the 22nd most influential stock for the Dow Jones and will only influence the USA30 and USA500, not the USA100.



Currently, technical analysis continues to indicate a strong price sentiment. The price trades above the 75-bar EMA and above the VWAP. In addition to this, the RSI is trading at 68.11 which also signals buyers are controlling the market. The only concern for traders is retracements. A weaker retracement could decline to $38,703, whereas a stronger retracement can fall back to $38,571.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 8th May 2024.

Market News – Stocks mixed; Yen support still on; Eyes on NFP & Apple tonight



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• As the Fed maintained a “high-for-longer” stance, stocks gave up their gains with attention turning back to earnings.
• Chair Powell and the Fed were not as hawkish as feared and the markets reacted immediately and in textbook fashion to the still dovish policy stance.
• The Fed flagged that recent disappointing inflation readings could make rate cuts a while in coming, but Fed chief Jerome Powell characterized the risk of more hikes as “unlikely,” giving some solace to markets.
• Stocks traded mixed across Asia, while in Europe, DAX and FTSE futures are finding buyers and US futures are also in demand, after the Fed’s message.
• Yen: Another suspected intervention by authorities, this time in late New York trading, ran into resistance from traders keen to keep selling the currency.
• Swiss CPI lifted to 1.4% y/y in April from 1.0% y/y in the previous month. Headline numbers are still at low levels and base effects play a role, with the different timing of Easter this year also likely to distort the picture. That said, the numbers may not question the SNB’s decision to cut rates, but they do not support another rate cut in June.

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HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 9th May 2024.

Market Insights: The BOE’s Potential Dovish Pivot and Current Indications.

• The Bank of England is in focus as the regulator will confirm their rate decision and how their future monetary policy path may look.
• The GBP trades sideways but the FTSE100 continues to trade higher. Economists are contemplating if the market is pricing a dovish tilt by the BOE.
• The Dow Jones was Wednesday’s best performing index, rising 0.48%. The DJIA’s best performing stock was Amgen which rose 2.33%.
• Federal Reserve members continue to apply further pressure on the market’s sentiment with more indications that inflation is too high.

GBPUSD – Investors Focusing on A Potential Upcoming Dovish Pivot!

The GBPUSD trades sideways and did not form a significant trend the day before. This morning the price trades slightly in favour of the US Dollar, however most institutions are waiting for confirmation from the Bank of England on monetary policy adjustment. The price movement will depend on the future guidance of the Governor and the Monetary Policy Committee’s votes.




The market is expecting the interest rate to remain at 5.25%. However, there’s anticipation that regulators may hint at upcoming monetary policy easing, potentially impacting the Pound. Analysts anticipate a shift to a “dovish” policy this year but differ on timing. Most foresee changes in June or August, possibly with two 25-point rate cuts. The price of the GBP will depend on when the BOE will indicate a rate cut is likely. If 1 or 2 members of the MPC vote for a cut and the Governor advises they are now considering a cut, then the GBP potentially could decline based on a June rate cut.

Market participants are anticipating a dovish indication due to inflation declining for 3 consecutive months and declining to a 32-month low. In addition to this, the UK’s employment change has weakened for 2 consecutive months as has the UK GDP growth. Traders can see the market is pricing a dovish indication due to the GBP’s decline over the past 3 days as well as the bullish price movement seen on the FTSE100.

USA30 – When Will The Buy Signal Again Become Active?

The Dow Jones was the best-performing US index as investors increased their exposure due to its connection with defensive stocks. 70% of the Dow Jones’ components rose in value and the best performing stocks were Amgen, Boeing and JP Morgan which all rose more than 2.00%.

The next influential earnings report for the Dow will come from Home Depot next Tuesday morning. Investors are expecting a 23% rise in earnings compared to the previous quarter. In addition to this, analysts expect revenue to rise, and traders should note the company has beaten expectations over the past 4 reports. Home Depot stocks hold a weight within the Dow Jones of 5.78%.




The price of the index continues to trade above the 75-Bar EMA and above the “neutral” point on the RSI. These factors indicate buyers are controlling the market. However, this morning the price is retracing, therefore a buy signal will not be active unless the price rises above $39,091 which is the breakout level, or at least forms a bullish crossover (8-bar EMA & 18-bar SMA).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 10th May 2024.

The BoE To Cut Rates In September. US Employment Data Falters!

• The UK economy experiences its strongest growth since August 2023, with Monthly GDP increasing 0.4%, four times higher than expectations.
• The Bank of England saw 2 out of 9 members vote for an interest rate cut. The dovish members of the BoE are Dr Swati and Sir Ramsden.
• The BOE Governor, Mr Bailey, said two rate cuts are likely in 2024 as “one cut will keep us in restrictive territory”. However, he advises there is a higher chance the first cut will come in September.
• The UK’s FTSE100 declines close to 0.20% as the UK’s GDP reading indicates an interest cut is less likely to take place in June 2024.

GBPUSD – The UK Economy Moves Out of a Technical Recession!

The GBPUSD over the past 24-hours has been influenced by three factors: the monetary committee’s votes, the Governor’s guidance and the UK’s latest GDP figure. The GBPUSD first fell to a 2-week low due to the higher number of votes for an interest rate cute. However, the GBPUSD has since risen 0.77%. Therefore, how can traders view the price movement and the latest developments?




A large factor influencing the pricing is whether the regulator is likely to adjust its policy in June or September. A rate cut in September would support the GBP as it would keep rates higher for longer compared to the Eurozone and other competitors. The Monetary Policy Committee votes indicates the BoE is almost ready to cut rates. The Governor also said they wish to steadily move away from a restrictive policy. In the UK a restrictive monetary policy is 5.00% and above.

The reason for the price increase is the Governor indicating that there is a higher possibility the regulator will cut in September not June. In addition to this, the strong economic growth confirmed this morning further lowers the possibility of a cut in June. This is because there is less pressure on the BoE to support a stagnated economy. Therefore, a rate cut is now likely to take place in September 2024, which is on par with the Federal Reserve’s guidance for its own policy.

The Federal Reserve and The US Dollar

The US Dollar on Thursday evening was considerably pressured by the Weekly Unemployment Claims, which normally has a limited affect. The US Unemployment Claims rose to 231,000, higher than predictions of 212,000 and the highest since November 2023. Therefore, the US has seen lower NFP data, higher unemployment rate and now higher unemployment claims. This has investors questioning if the US employment sector may be weakening for the first time since raising interest rates. If so, the Federal Reserve may consider a cut in July. Currently, the CM Exchange’s tool shows a 30.8% chance of a cut in July, if this figure rises, the US Dollar could potentially weaken.

GBPUSD – Technical Analysis

Technical analysis indicates the price of the GBPUSD may rise to the previous resistance levels between 1.25650 and 1.25936. However, if the market continues to price a Fed rate cut in September, it is improbable the exchange rate will reach the resistance level at 1.26340. The exchange rate currently trades above most trend lines such as the 75-Bar EMA and is above the 60.00 mark on most RSI periods. The price has slightly retraced since rising after the GDP announcement. For this reason, the buy signal has turned into a neutral. However, if the price rises above 1.25362, the buy signal may materialize again.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.