HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Date: 12th March 2024.

UK Salary Growth Slows But All Eyes On US Inflation Data!

• The Pound declines due to lower salary growth and the unemployment rate rising to 3.9%.
• The US Dollar Index rises after weaker UK employment data which triggered weakness in both the Pound and the Euro.
• US Dollar traders turn their attention to this afternoon’s inflation reading. Analysts expect US inflation to remain at 3.1% and for core inflation figures to fall from 3.9% to 3.7%.
• Gold sees significantly higher trades according to the CFTC’s latest report. The commodity formed its ninth consecutive bullish candlestick (daily), but trades lower today.

GBPUSD – UK Salary Growth Slows, But Will Inflation Become Less Sticky?

The GBPUSD is forming its third lower high but is yet to form a significant “lower low”. If the price declines below 1.27943, the downward price movement would have gained adequate downward momentum to form a bearish price pattern. Also, if the price declines below this level, the exchange rate will fall below the neutral on the RSI and closer to the 75-bar EMA.



However, in order for the GBPUSD to maintain momentum the price will also require positive data from the US inflation data. If US inflation falls below expectations, the Dollar may also witness downward pressure making the direction of the exchange rate less certain. However, if the inflation data reads as expectations or higher, the Dollar potentially will continue rising. This is due to interest rates potentially remaining high for additional months. Therefore, the price action is largely dependant on this afternoon’s inflation data.

The US’s latest employment data does show signs of weakening as the salary growth falls and the unemployment rate rises. These statistics may influence the decisions of US Federal Reserve officials on monetary policy: most experts expect a transition to the “dovish” rhetoric at the regulator’s June meeting, and in total, two to four interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each are predicted this year. Though, this will significantly depend on today’s inflation data.

The UK data, on the other hand, is largely viewed as negative, as it implies less upward pressure on UK inflation. The UK Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose from 3.8% to 3.9% and the Average Salary Index fell from 5.8% to 5.6%. Therefore, UK salary growth has fallen to its lowest level since September 2022. Previously the Governor of the Bank of England was advising high inflation levels was partially due to salary growth. Now growth is subsiding, will inflation also become less sticky? If so, the Pound can be pressured, if lower inflation is not also seen in the US.

XAUUSD – CTFC Report Confirms Buyers Outnumber Sellers!

The Gold price did not review its all-time highs for a fifth consecutive day on Monday, but nonetheless, the commodity also did not show significant signs of weakness. Factors continue to indicate a need for the safe haven asset. This includes weakness in the stock market over the past week, geopolitical tensions, as well as potential lower interest rates.

If US inflation reads lower than expectations, the Fed will likely opt to cut interest rates sooner rather than later, as economic data has slightly withered over the past 2 months. If this is the case, the Dollar will see less attraction as a safe haven asset. For this reason, Gold could strengthen or at least retain the recent significant gains.

According to the CFTC, speculative Gold contracts have risen from 141,600 to 191,300 over the past week in the US. The report confirms 164,640 buy contracts against only 33,580 sell contracts. This indicates more traders believe the price will either remain high or continue rising. However, traders should note this will depend on the inflation reading in the short term.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 13th March 2024.

The Dow Jones Rises to Monthly Highs! Is Gold Retracing Or Correcting?

• The Dow Jones rises to a monthly high despite higher inflation data for February 2024.
• The Dow Jones’s best performing stock on Tuesday was 3M Co (+4.97), Intl Business Machines Corp (+3.16%) and Microsoft (+2.66%).
• US inflation rises from 3.1% to 3.2% and the Monthly Core CPI remains at recent highs for a second consecutive month.
• Gold forms its first bearish candlestick in March on the daily chart, but Dollar struggles to hold onto gains.

USA30 – Higher Inflation Fails To Keep the Dow Jones Down!

The USA30 did not see the highest gains and lags behind the SNP500 and NASDAQ which both rose more than 1.00%. However, the USA30 (Dow Jones), was the only US index which broke through resistance levels and rose to its highest level for March. The USA30 is now witnessing bullish signals from trend-lines, regression channels and oscillators. The price is trading above the 75-Bar EMA, above 60.00 on the RSI and above the VWAP. These factors indicate the asset has potential to further rise.

The only concern for technical analysts is entering too high and at a previous resistance level from February. Though fundamental analysts are more concerned about the higher-than-expected inflation data. The higher inflation data did not cause a decline in the price, as it normally would. However, it continues to be a concern for investors as it puts off a possible interest rate cut in May-June 2024. The US inflation rate rose from 3.1% to 3.2% and Core Inflation fell at a lower pace compared to previous predictions.

If we look at the top 15 influential stocks within the USA30, 8 of those stocks are declining. Also, the most volatile stocks in the pre-market hours are Travelers Cos Inc stocks which are declining more than 2%. This currently indicates a sideways price movement, but investors will need to continue monitoring as we come closer to the US Open. Other global indices are trading lower including the Nikkei225, DAX and CAC. However, US bond yields are trading 0.012% lower which is positive for the US stock market.



XAUUSD – Gold Forms Its First Retracement

Gold has formed its first retracement after the higher-than-expected inflation data. This ends a nine-day bullish trend where the commodity rose consecutively. However, traders should note the price is so far only forming a retracement and is yet to indicate a downward trend. Therefore, the price can potentially still be within a bullish trend. The retracement can provide investors the opportunity to enter at a more competitive entry level.

If the price breaks above the $2,161.53 mark, buy signals are likely to again materialize. The commodity formed a triple top at this level but is not showing any downward momentum. Therefore, above this level, investor sentiment can again rise. The Fibonacci levels indicate that a buy trade can potentially aim for levels between $2,169 and $2,175 in the short term.



The 30-Year Bond Yield Auction can influence the price movement of Gold as both are known as haven assets. However, tomorrow’s Producer Inflation and Retail Sales is likely to create higher volatility. Investors will also be keen to hear from members of the FOMC, but none are scheduled to speak throughout the day. Economists are now pricing in at least three 25 basis point interest rate cuts, the first of which could come in June. Previously investors were pricing in four cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 14th March 2024.

China’s Gold Imports From Switzerland More Than Triple!

• Significant demand from China continues to push Gold prices higher!
• China has been using the safe haven asset to protect the central bank and reserves as the Chinese Yuan depreciated over the past 2 years.
• Economists advise the higher demand coming from China may indicate potential higher Chinese inflation. This could be a domino effect of lower interest rates and an expansionary fiscal policy.
• Gold declines 0.30% during this morning’s Asian session but remains above yesterday’s lows.

XAUUSD – China Pushes Gold Prices Higher And Looks to Move Away From the Dollar!

The price of Gold fell 0.33% during this morning’s Asian session, however, the asset continues to remain above yesterday’s price range. Using the Fibonacci levels-based impulse wave yesterday, the price is also still trading above the 50.00 and did not cross below the 61.8. Therefore, the possibility of upward price movement remains.



The price movement will also be largely influenced by this afternoon’s US economic data. The US will make public the latest producer inflation and retail sales. In the previous month, both supported the price of Gold as inflation rose, but interest rates cuts continue to remain “the main path forward”. Analysts believe the US Producer Price Index will again read 0.3% and retail sales to fully correct the 0.8% decline from the previous month. If retail sales disappoint, the demand for Gold can again rise.

Investors also note the price of oil has risen to its highest level since November of last year. If the price does not correct downwards, inflation may become more stickier than previously thought. This is also a concern which the Treasury and Ms Yellen have voiced in the past 24 hours. “I wouldn’t expect this to be a smooth path month to month, but the trend is clearly favorable,” Yellen said.

Though investors should note that according to the Swiss Federal Customs Administration, the higher demand is largely due to China. The Swiss Federal Customs Administration advised the physical exports to China trebled in 2024. Investors are also questioning whether China is increasing exposure to Gold in order to mitigate away from the Dollar. In addition to this, Chinese inflation is expected to again rise due to expansionary policies in 2023. According to the CME exchange, the average trading volume over the last five sessions is 511.5K positions, which is this year’s high, far exceeding the February average of 267.0K transactions.

The US Dollar index during this morning’s Asian session has risen +0.18%. However, the index has slightly fallen at the open of the European session. Investors will also continue to monitor the index after the PPI and Retail Sales release. If the index continues to rise, the price of Gold can become strained. However, if the Dollar falls along with retail sales, Gold can potentially see higher demand.

The price is unlikely to see a continuation of the trend seen last week, according to analysts. However, this does not necessary indicate that the price is collapsing. Many analysts believe the asset will form a new range and honor a wider range. This provides investors an opportunity to use reversion strategies and pay closer attention to support and resistance levels. The latest major support level can be seen at $2,148 and resistance level at $2,185.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 15th March 2024.

BOJ Puts Rate Hikes On The Table After Historic Wage Agreement!

• Wage deals with Japan’s largest employers and unions have been agreed according to reports. Bloomberg confirms a 5% wage increase.
• Bank of Japan may hike interest rates as early as next week. Other economists believe the hike will come in April. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan’s interest rate to rise to 0.00%.
• Producer Inflation rates double that originally expected by analysts. Core Producer Inflation also continues to rise.
• 31% of the NASDAQ’s stocks decline as investors price in fewer rate hikes in 2024.

GBPJPY – BOJ Set to Hike for the First Time Since 2007 After Higher Salaries Agreed!



The GBPJPY fell up to 0.28% during this morning’s Asian session as unions and employers gave consent for a 5% wage increase. This gives enough room for the Bank of Japan to consider a rate increase to move out of negative interest rates. However, the Yen has fallen since against the currency market as a whole. Nonetheless, the hike and wage increase could support the Yen in the medium to long term.

Analysts advise the Bank of Japan is likely to increase rates either at next week’s bank meeting or in April, but no later. However, economists are yet to confirm how high rates may go. Analysts advise the bank will most likely opt to hike on two occasions by 0.10%. This would bring the Cash Rate to 0.10%, the highest since 2010.

The possibility of rate hikes is deemed to be positive for the Japanese Yen as well as the higher possibility of sticky inflation globally. The Japanese Industry Activity also rose 0.3%, more than previous expectations, which supports the Yen. However, investors should be cautious of volatility and ensure their entry is appropriate based on technical analysis. The price over the past 48 hours is moving within a sideways range but is showing more downward volatility.

UA Zensen, Japan’s largest industrial and trade union representing more than 1.8 million workers, announced that companies have agreed to the largest wage increase since 2013. Thus, this year for full-time workers it may increase by 5.9%, and for part-time workers by 6.5%.

When monitoring each currency individually, we can see the Pound is seeing a “mixed” performance. The Pound during this morning’s Asian session and European Cash Open has depreciated against the Euro and the Pound. The Japanese Yen declined throughout the first 3 days of the week but rose on Thursday.

Even though the price of the Pound has considerably risen against the Yen over the past 90 minutes, the Yen could see different signals rise throughout the day. For example, if the price declines below 188.949, Fibonacci levels and price action will signal a decline. With such a decline, the price will also again fall below the 75-Bar EMA and “Neutral” level on the RSI.

USA100 – Global Stocks Rise on Friday

The USA100 rose 0.19% as the European markets opened as did other indices such as the DAX, French CAC and even the NIKKEI225. The positive price movement from global equities is positive as it may indicate a higher risk appetite and investor sentiment. In addition to this, US Bond Yields are also trading lower this morning which is known to potentially support stocks. These are signs of a potential correction to the trend line at $18,090. However, this is something investors will need to keep monitoring through the day.



In terms of fundamental analysis, yesterday’s Producer Price data and Retail Sales have added pressure on equities. Most analysis now believe the Federal Reserve will only opt for 2-3 hikes in 2024. Most economists still believe the Fed will cut in June, but rate cuts thereafter will be less frequent. Some analysts advise if this continues, the index will struggle to renew highs from March 8th.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 19th March 2024.

Market Recap – It’s a classic ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

The advent of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the further slippage in Fed rate cut expectations extended selling pressures on Treasuries.

• Corporate issuance and the risk-on trades into equities weighed too.
• BoJ delivers dovish hike: The BoJ ended its yield curve control, ETF buying and the 8 years of negative interest rates and ushered in the nation’s first policy tightening since 2007. Also the bank pledged to continue to buy long-term government bonds. There was little indication of additional hikes, which signalled that this is not the first step of a rapid tightening cycle.
• RBA drops tightening bias, as it keeps the policy rate at a 12-year-high. The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for another meeting, but removed any reference to possible further hikes from the statement. When asked if the RBA had indeed moved to a neutral stance, Bullock said the risks to the outlook are indeed “finely balanced now”.
• Today: The FOMC meets for 2 days, and will issue its post-meeting statement at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. Expectations are for no policy change at this meeting, but verbiage will be closely monitored for hints regarding the rate path in the remainder of 2024.

Market Trends:

• Wall Street bounced but pared its early rally. It continued to shrug off the evolving Fed outlook and instead re-focused on tech enthusiasm.
• A Bloomberg report that Apple is in talks to build Google’s Gemini AI engine into the iPhone boosted risk appetite.
• The NASDAQ (US100) advanced 0.82%, after halving early gains. The S&P500 (US500) was up 0.63% and the Dow was 0.20% higher.
• Nikkei (JPN225) was choppy after the decision but closed 0.66% higher, while Japanese government bond yields fell.

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HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 20th March 2024.

Market Recap – All eyes on FED.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Treasury yields are sinking as bonds await the FOMC’s results. The market is recovering slightly from this month’s selloff that has taken rates to the highest levels since late November.
• Stock markets traded mixed overnight, while Bonds have been in demand as the FOMC announcement comes into view.
• German producer prices fell -4.1% y/y in February. PPI has bottomed out, but so far is still firmly in negative territory, largely thanks to a -10.1% y/y drop in energy prices. Developments are backing the ECB’s assessment that things are moving in the right direction. Services price inflation though, which is more driven by wage growth than goods prices, remains stubbornly high for now.
• UK inflation continues to decelerate adding support to the bond market. The data confirms that inflation is moving in the right direction, but also that it remains far too high, which will justify a dovish hold from the BoE tomorrow.
• FOMC Checklist: The FOMC will issue its post-meeting statement today. Expectations are for no policy change at this meeting, but verbiage will be closely monitored for hints regarding the rate path in the remainder of 2024. The SEP was last updated in December, and is due for another update at this March meeting.

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HFM · Mar 20, 2024 at 6:26 PM

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Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex found a bid too after the BoJ’s dovish hike. It tested 104.06 but slid to 103.82 at the close.
• USDJPY is at 151.57 spiking to 4-month highs while EURJPY spiked to a 16-year peak after the Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates without clear guidance on further hikes.
• A stronger than expected German ZEW investor confidence reading failed to boost the Euro significantly. Cable is holding slightly below the 1.27 mark.
• Gold flattened for a 3rd day in a row and USOIL fell to $82.24 from $83.
• Bitcoin continued to pull back from its recent record high, falling over 5% at one point. Shares of crypto-linked companies Coinbase (COIN) and Marathon Digital (MARA) lost ground alongside the token.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 21st March 2024.

Market Recap – Gold & Stocks at record highs; Fed maintained rate cut forecast.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

The Fed signalled that rate cuts are still in the cards, stock markets rallied, Treasury yield were lower and the US Dollar was down from earlier highs.

• DOT PLOT: Fed keeps rates on hold and signals 75 basis points of cuts this year! – 9 officials out of 19 expressed the need of 3 rate cuts, and 1 expects 4 rate cuts. For the remainder of the 2024 forecasts, 5 expect two rate cuts, 2 expect one rate cut, and 2 expect no cuts.
• The Fed left policy unchanged, as expected. And although the revisions on the Fed funds path, as well as on the economy and inflation were all hawkish, Chair Powell said “the story is the same one,” meaning rate cuts are still in the cards and the Fed is confident it will achieve its objectives over time.
• Australia: Robust jobs data released this morning supported Aussie, with 116,500 roles added to the economy in February.
• New Zealand: The GDP showed the country unexpectedly fell into a recession in the second half of 2023.
• Today’s round of European central bank decisions includes BoE, SNB and Norges Bank!

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HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 22th March 2024.
Pending Orders and Apple Lawsuit Apply Selling Pressure on the NASDAQ!

• Apple stocks witness the second largest decline within the NASDAQ, falling more than 4.00%. Shareholders sold shares after news of another federal antitrust law violation.
• Apple is set to receive its second fine from regulators for “monopolizing” the phone sector. The company has already received a $1.8 billion fine from the EU.
• The NASDAQ rises 2.43% after the Fed’s dovish tone before triggering pending orders. The USA100 ended the day 0.24% higher.
• UK Retail Sales remain unchanged beating expectations of a -0.4% decline. The Pound declines against most currencies regardless of higher retail sales data.

USA100 – Apple Stocks Struggle After A Second Antitrust Lawsuit!


The price of the USA100 is trading slightly lower during this morning’s Asian session continuing the downward momentum from 18:00 (GMT+2) onwards. The downward momentum was largely due to pending orders to sell at the new high. These orders are seen on the Depth of Market and Volume profile. However, in addition to this, the NASDAQ’s second most influential stock, Apple, declined more than 4%.


The NASDAQ has assigned a “weight” of 7.71% to Apple stock which is a concern for NASDAQ holders. This is because Apple has received another lawsuit against them for antitrust violations and “monopolizing” the industry through purposely making competitors’ products less suitable. Certain States within the US advised “Apple’s success is less based on the merits of their product but making other products less convenient for consumers”.


This would be the second penalty for Apple in 2024. The EU has already given Apple a $1.8 billion fine which has caused Apple stocks to fall up to 10%. If Apple stocks continue to decline, this may apply some pressure on the USA100 and will definitely result in the stock holding a lower weight. The USA100 was better supported by stocks with less weight rather than the more influential stocks. Of the top 20 influential stocks, 9 fell in value, while only 27% fell in value when monitoring the whole NASDAQ. Later in the day, the stock market in general can witness volatility as the Fed chairman is due to speak.





In terms of technical analysis, we can see the regression channel has thinned, which indicates there are no current active signals. The price instead will need to gain momentum and direction in order for signals to materialise. The breakout levels can be seen at $18,317.20 and $18,377.37. However, investors should note that these levels can also form “false breakouts”. The medium-term charts, such as the 2-hour chart, indicate buyers control the market. However, if a bearish price movement forms, support can be found between $18,191 and $18,246.


GBPUSD – Economic Data Continues to Improve Sentiment Towards The Dollar!


The cable exchange rate trades at its lowest level in over a month due to the strengthening Dollar and dovishness amongst members of the Bank of England. The exchange rate fell 0.99% on Thursday and a further 0.56% during this morning’s two sessions.





The BoE’s accompanying statement stated that inflation pressures are weakening, but wage growth rates remain above target levels, creating additional risks for the economy if the transition to a “dovish” course is too rapid. Though investors are concentrating more on the fact the Monetary Policy Committee saw no votes for a rate hike. For this reason, the committee seem more bearish than bullish. 8 members voted for a pause and 1 for a cut.


The US Dollar on the other hand is trading higher due to weakness in other currencies and the possibilities of less frequent cuts. Based on the comments from the Fed, the regulator will not delay the cuts but simply make them less frequent. In addition to this, the US Dollar is being supported by the latest US economic data. Unemployment claims remained low while the Philly Fed Index and Existing Home Sales significantly rose above expectations. In addition to this, investors were happy to see both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI indexes remain above the significant 50.00 mark.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 26th March 2024.

Market Recap – Quarter End Comes Into View.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

Treasuries, Wall Street, and the US Dollar all posted small losses to start the abbreviated week of trading.

• The market is consolidating into quarter-end. This week’s supply is pressuring at the margin, while uncertainty over the Fed’s rate path is limiting buying. Though the just-published dots assuaged concerns over the prospects for less than 3 rate cuts this year, anxiety remains high, especially after Bostic said he trimmed his estimate to 1 easing this year from 2 previously.
• Stock markets traded cautiously overnight, as the quarter end comes into view. China bourses outperformed, while Nikkei and ASX corrected.
• The offshore Yuan strengthened for a second day after China’s central bank reinforced its support for the currency.
• Geopolitics: Ukrainian drone attacks have caused disruptions at Russian oil refineries, with around 12% of the country’s oil processing capacity reportedly impacted. A resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was vetoed by Russia and China and a terrorist attack in Russia over the weekend added to geopolitical risks as did fresh threats by Yemen-based Houthi militants against Saudi Arabia.

Market Trends:

• Wall Street slipped on profit taking ahead of quarter-end, having made strong gains since the start of the year and hitting record highs last Thursday.
• The Dow fell -0.41%, the S&P500 was off -0.31% and the NASDAQ was down -0.27%. For the quarter, the S&P500 and NASDAQ are up 9.44% and 9.15%, respectively, and the Dow is up 4.3%.
• DAX and FTSE100 futures are also in the red, while US futures have moved higher.

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-17.png
HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 27th March 2024.

Market Recap – Yen on Intervention watch.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• A slip in risk appetite and a solid 5-year auction gave Treasuries a little boost yesterday with yields ending modestly lower.
• Profit taking on the strong gains for the quarter, and indeed record highs last week, and some tax loss selling weighed.
• Wall Street ended with small losses. The NASDAQ fell -0.42%, with the S&P500 off -0.28%, while the Dow dipped -0.08%.
• The US consumer confidence undershot assumptions and joined a Michigan sentiment down-tick to 76.5 from 76.9 in February and a 30-month high of 79.0 in January. All the surveys face headwinds from high mortgage rates, tight credit conditions, and recession fears.
• The US durables report slightly beat estimates thanks to a restrained 3.3%.
• Data showed that industrial profits in China jumped 10.2% in the first 2 months of the year, but signs of an ongoing recovery means there is a lower chance of further stimulus. China officials also seem to have tightened their grip on the currency once again.
• Japan officials have also engaged in some verbal intervention over the past week, but that didn’t prevent the Yen from hitting a 34 year low against the Dollar.
• Italy sold about 12.5% of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA for about €650 million ($704 million) as part of Giorgia Meloni’s government plan to divest from the bailed-out lender.
  
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  HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
  
  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
  
  Click HERE to READ more Market news.
  
  Andria Pichidi
  Market Analyst
  HFMarkets
  
  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  

 

Date: 28th March 2024.

The US Dollar Strengthens As Economists Believe The ECB Will Struggle To “Hold”.

• Early this morning, the Fed Governor advised “there is no rush to cut rates” and “the data within the upcoming months” will be vital.
• The US Dollar Index rises to a 1-month high. The value of the USD will largely be based on today’s data on economic growth, consumer sentiment and pending home sales.
• Dollar and index traders are closely monitoring tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index which analysts expect will read 0.3%. A higher inflation reading can potentially pressure stocks and support the Dollar.
• Strong declines in NVIDIA and Netflix stocks pressured the NASDAQ on Wednesday. Though, buyers entered late in the session to boost the overall price.

EURUSD

The latest comments from members of the Federal Reserve are supporting the US Dollar. The forward guidance between members of the Federal Reserve is mainly not aligned. The Chairman advises the Fed does not need much more proof for the regulator to feel comfortable reducing rates. Whereas the Fed Governor, Mr Waller, advises there is no rush, and he wants to see a few months of data before determining the next move. Therefore, the upcoming inflation and employment data will remain vital and could even push back rate hikes further. According to economists, the Federal Reserve will cut the interest rate on 3 occasions this year, but the timing of the first cut is less certain and may change depending on upcoming data.

A positive factor for traders is that EURUSD exchange is not witnessing conflicting currencies. The US Dollar is trading 0.12% higher while the Euro is declining against most currencies. The Euro is trading 0.06% lower against the Pound and the Canadian Dollar and 0.16% lower against the Japanese Yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Italy, Mr Cipollone, said that the authorities were confident that inflation would return to the target of 2.0% by mid–2025. He also supports the lower of interest rate and will use this as a basis for adjusting monetary policy. The Euro is generally under pressure as investors believe the European Central Bank will struggle to avoid cuts if the Fed decide to delay their adjustments.

The US Dollar will be influenced by four major economic data releases. The US Final GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment Index. If these read higher than expectations with the weekly unemployment claims dropping, the US Dollar is likely to witness further support. However, investors should note the main release will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. Traders are expecting no major news for Europe and volatility levels may fall tomorrow as European markets are closed for Easter.



Technical analysis currently points towards a continued downward trend. The price is trading below the neutral on the RSI and below the 75-Bar EMA. However, investors should note this will also be dependent on upcoming US data.

USA100

The price of the USA100 was under pressure throughout the whole US session but was saved by an increased volume of buyers late in the session. However, a positive point is the components held onto their value. Even though the index fell in value, only 28% of the components declined. Investors will now turn their attention towards tomorrow’s PCE Price Index and the upcoming earnings season which will start in mid-April.

The price is now trading slightly above the Moving Averages but slightly below the 50.00 on the RSI. Therefore, technical analysis remains at the “neutral” level and continues to indicate a larger price range. If today’s economic data is positive the stock market can witness confidence and support as this continues to indicate a soft landing. Though, if the data is too strong, it could also trigger a hawkish Fed which is known to be negative for the USA100.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 29th March 2024.

GBPUSD Analysis: The Pound Trades Higher But For How Long?

• The global Stocks Markets are closed due to Easter Friday (Good Friday). The NASDAQ continued to follow the sideways trend while other indices again rose.
• The SNP500 reaches an all-time high, but the NASDAQ remains under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple.
• The Euro continues to trade lower against all major currencies including the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen.
• The British Pound is the best performing currency during this morning’s Asian session. However, investors are largely fixing their attention on this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index.

GBPUSD – The Pound Trades Higher but For How Long?

The GBPUSD is slightly higher than the day’s open and is primary due to the Pound’s strong performance. At the moment, the British Pound is increasing in value against all major currencies. However, the US Dollar Index is also trading 0.10% higher and for this reason there is a slight conflict here. If investors wish to avoid this conflict, the EURUSD is a better option. This is because, the Euro depreciating against the whole currency market avoiding the “tug-of-war” scenario.

The GBPUSD is trading slightly lower than the 2-month’s average price and is trading at 49.10 on the RSI. For this reason, the price of the exchange is at a “neutral” level and is signalling neither a buy nor a sell. The day’s price action and future signals are possibly likely to be triggered by this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index.



Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to read 0.3% which is slightly lower than the previous month but will result in the annual figure remaining at 2.85%. The PCE rate is different to the inflation rate and the Fed aims for a rate between 1.5% to 2.00%. Therefore, even if the annual rate remains at 2.85%, as analysts expect, it would be too high for the Fed. If the rate increases, even if only slightly, the US Dollar can again renew bullish momentum and the stock market can come under pressure. This includes the SNP500.

Investors are focused on the publication of data on the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the last quarter of 2023: the quarterly figures decreased by 0.3%, and 0.2% over the past 12-months. This confirms the state of a shallow recession and the need for stimulation. The data, combined with a cooling labor market and a steady decline in inflation, increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will soon begin interest rate cuts. In the latest meeting the Bank of England representatives did not see any members vote for a hike.

USA500 – The SNP500 Rises to New Highs, But Cannot Hold Onto Gains!

The price of the SNP500 rises to an all-time high, before correcting 0.33% and ending the day slightly lower than the open price. Nonetheless, the index performs better than the NASDAQ which came under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple which hold a higher weight compared to the SNP500. For the SNP500, these 3 stocks hold a weight of 9.25%, whereas the 3 stocks make up 14.63% of the NASDAQ. The SNP500 is also supported by ExxonMobil’s gains due to higher energy prices.

The market will remain closed on Friday due to Easter. However, the market will reopen on Monday for the US and investors can expect high volatility. Investors will also need to take into consideration how the PCE Price Index and the changed value of the US Dollar is likely to affect the stock market next week.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 1st April 2024.

Strong Chinese Economic Data Prompts Demand for US Stocks!

Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

• The Chinese economy and sentiment improve for the first time since September 2023. Chinese Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, beating expectations. Higher Chinese data improves the global risk appetite towards stocks.
• Stocks trade higher, what is more, the SNP500, and Dow Jones again renew their all-time highs. The latest Chinese data and a PCE Price Index in line with expectations support price growth.
• The price of Gold and the US Dollar Index are both on the rise, which is a concern for investors. The market’s price movement gives no clear indication of investor’s risk appetite.
• Apple is expected to confirm the Vision Pro Headset will be made available to global consumers in the summer months.

USA500 – Inflation, Earnings and Company News!

The USA500 starts the day with a moderate bullish price gap measuring 0.21% and continues trading 0.52% higher ever since. The price of the index is now trading at an all-time high and has risen more than 10.50% in 2024. The SNP500 has also been the best performing index in 2024 and has outperformed both the NASDAQ and Dow Jones? The question for traders is, will this continue?



A positive factor for the USA500 is the Federal Reserve and most global central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates at some point this year. The main factor which investors needed to see is that central banks were able to do so without triggering a significant economic contraction, which was achieved. Another positive factor is the Core PCE Price Index did not beat expectations, which was vital considering inflation over the past 2 months kept reading higher than previously thought.

However, some risks do remain which can make the path difficult for buyers. The price of Gold as well as the price of the US Dollar continue to rise. This occurrence indicates the market’s risk appetite and sentiment is lower than priced in the stock market. Another concern is whether the Federal Reserve will be able to indeed cut interest rates in July 2024 if inflation does not decline over the next 2 months.

Investors are closely watching the price of oil which is trading 13.50% higher in 2024 and at a 6-month high. If the price of Oil continues to rise and fails to fall back below $80.00 per barrel in the next two months, inflation will be difficult to reduce. As a result, the Fed may again push back a rate cut to July or September. Otherwise, the Fed may continue with a cut in June, but will advise less than 3 cuts for the remainder of the year.

So, what can save the SNP500 and stock market if the Fed chose not to cut and if inflation rises. The answer is the quarterly earnings reports scheduled for later this month and in May. Investors will mainly be focusing their attention on the following stocks:

1. Microsoft
2. Apple
3. NVIDIA
4. Alphabet
5. Amazon
6. Meta

The stock which is a concern for investors is Apple Stocks. Apple has received a large penalty from the EU and is now facing a lawsuit from the US. Shareholders will be keen to see what the board of directors have to say regarding this and how it will affect the earnings per share. Investors will also be keen to see the performance of the Apple Vision Pro Headset which was released in February. If the sales figure reads as expected or beats expectations, the demand for the stocks can rise regardless of the upcoming fines. Apple is also expected to announce that the product will be made available to global consumers later in the summer. Apple quarterly earnings will be released on May 2nd and Microsoft on April 23rd.

USA500 – Technical Analysis After Strong Chinese Economic Data

Over the past 3 trading days, the price of the USA500 has successfully been forming higher highs and higher lows. The price this morning saw strong momentum, which was also due to positive economic data from China. The Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI beat expectations. Furthermore, technical indicators continue to indicate a higher price. The price remains above the 75-Bar EMA and above the 50.00 level on the RSI. In addition to this, delta statistics also indicate buyers are controlling the market. If the price again rises above $5,273.31, the breakout will further indicate upward price movement.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 2nd April 2024.

Market Recap – Inflation: Will be back?



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Treasuries were hit by stronger than expected ISM data and yields climbed sharply in a bear steepener. – US manufacturing unexpectedly expanded for the first time since September 2022 & input costs climbed.
• The latest ISM data indicates that the US economy continues to display strength despite elevated interest rates. This bodes well for the stock market, as it has the potential to fuel profit growth for businesses. However, it also raises concerns about inflationary pressures.
• Wall Street took its lumps to start Q2 amid the eroding Fed view and the pop in interest rates. The broader indexes closed with losses, though from fresh record highs last Thursday.
• FED: Expectations are moving toward fewer cuts this year as well, from the 3 that have been in for priced in much of 2024 to date, consistent with the FOMC’s dots, to 2, 1, or even none. A couple of key Fed officials, Waller and Bostic, have indicated their preferences for fewer than 3 cuts this year. Now there is a 61% chance of the Fed cutting rates in June.
• UK Nationwide house prices unexpectedly dropped -0.2% m/m in March, after rising 0.7% m/m in the previous month.

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-19.png
HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 3rd April 2024.
Market Recap – ‘Good News is Bad News’

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Rate cut hopes for the US are fading, which is weighing on stock markets. Bonds have found a footing, at least outside of the US, and the 10-year Bund yield is down -1.4 bp, after the 10-year JGB corrected -1.3 bp.
• A rise in February JOLTS, albeit after a downward revision to January, and a better than expected factory report, exacerbated the sell off in longer dated Treasuries.
• Disappointing delivery news from Tesla, along with weakness in the health and retail sectors, weighed on sentiment.
• Rising geopolitical risks boosted Gold and Oil.
• Fed’s Mester(Voter) & Daly (Voter): They still see 3 cuts this year, which helped trim losses. Mester stated that she will not vote for a cut at the May meeting given the lack of sufficient data but said she would not rule out action in June.
• China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March. Yuan declined despite data.
• Today: EU Inflation & Core, US ADP, US ISM Services and Fed Powell speech. OPEC ministerial meeting is also on tap and it is expected to confirm current output cut targets.

Market Trends:

• Wall Street slumped as well on JOLTS and hence the Fed outlook and the rise in yields with the major indexes falling over -1.0% before paring losses. The Dow finished with a -1.0% drop, while the S&P500 was down -0.72% and the NASDAQ -0.95% lower.
• Stocks have sold off across Asia, with Hang Seng and ASX underperforming and losing more than -1%. US futures are also in the red, while European futures are narrowly mixed.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex climbed to hit 105.10, but it lost traction and slid to close at 104.52 with a pick up in downside momentum after the Fedspeak. Monday’s 105.019 close was the first with a 105 handle since mid-November.
• The AUD & NZD (often used as liquid proxies for the CNH), are under pressure as a result of a stronger USD and a weaker CNH.
• Gold (+11% this year) surged to a new all-time peak at $2288 even as Fed rate cut bets were pared. Silver hit a 2-year high.
• USOIL was up 1.9% at $85.30 per barrel with additional support from expectations for rising demand.
• Bitcoin at $66.3K, under pressure for a 3rd day in a row.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 4th April 2024.

Market News – USD continues to decline; stock markets mixed.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Powell wants to keep inflation expectations anchored at 2%. – Recent data have not “materially” changed the overall picture.
• Nothing new is added to the outlook, keeping the door open for several rate cuts this year, though Bostic continues to favor just one easing.
• The ISM services index slowed and prices paid softened, but the ADP solidly beat.
• JGB and Treasury yields have moved up overnight, with the US 10-year 1.8 bp higher on the day.
• Bunds are finding buyers though, with Eurozone spreads narrowing as peripherals outperform.
• Fed funds futures: implied rates are now about 50-50 for a June cut, with July showing about a 95% probability for the first cut. A 25 bp easing is not fully priced until September.
• Swiss inflation drops to just 1.0% y/y. Expectations had been for a slight uptick in the headline and the lower than expected number will justify the SNB’s decision to cut rates at the previous meeting, especially as the growth outlook remains subdued.
• The ECB asserts it won’t rely on the Federal Reserve’s actions to determine when to start reducing interest rates. However, economic trends in the US often swiftly affect other regions, impacting financing conditions, exchange rates, and various metrics such as inflation and trade.

Long Shadow of the Fed Shows Limits of ECB Talk of Independence


Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex is below 104, in the wake of Powell’s comments along with the stronger than projected ADP which weighed on the markets, and Bostic’s comments.
• The Yen continues to consolidate as investors awaited cues from the BOJ. BOJ board member Sakurai said that the central bank is likely to wait until around October before mulling another interest rate hike.
• Gold remained stable after reaching a new all-time high, surpassing $2,300 per ounce. This surge was supported mainly by Powell.
• USOIL appeared ready for its 5th consecutive day of increases.
• Copper rose to its highest level since January 2023, driven by increasing supply risks and indications of heightened demand

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 5th April 2024.

Market News – NFP day; Geopolitics triggering a flight to safety!



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Global Stocks fell ahead of today’s jobs report, which coupled with the rising geopolitical risks and the angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand.
• Treasuries climbed, the US Dollar ended near session highs and Oil rallied.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a security cabinet meeting his country will operate against Iran and its proxies and will hurt those who seek to harm it. President Joe Biden told Netanyahu on a call that US support for his war would depend on new steps to protect civilians.
• Note: A direct conflict between Israel & Iran could restrict further Oil supply and hence could boost Oil above $100.
• Japan: BOJ Governor Ueda stoked bets about an additional interest rate hike later in the year, if the yen’s weakness affected the economy. FM Shunichi Suzuki repeated warnings that the government would take appropriate measures to support the currency. Meanwhile, former top currency diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe said earlier this week that the government likely won’t make a move unless the Yen plunges below 155 per dollar.

Copy-of-TELEGRAM-21.png
HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 8th April 2024.

Treasury Yields Climb and Investors Anxiously Await March’s Inflation Reading!

• Economists expect inflation to rise from 3.2% to 3.4%, but the monthly incline to be lower than the previous month.
• The Dow Jones sees its worst week of 2024, but stocks rebound on positive employment data.
• The US economy added a further 303,000 more employed individuals and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%.
• The US Dollar witnesses “mixed” price movement as investors wait for inflation confirmation and clarity on interest rates.

USA500 – Bond Yields Rise 50 Points Potentially Pressuring US Stocks!

The SNP500 is the index which is likely to be most influenced by this week’s earnings data. This is due to the index’s exposure to banking stocks. The price of the USA500 is technically still forming lower lows and lower highs which indicates a downward trend. However, corrective waves remain strong which indicate demand remains. Currently, the price is trading below momentum indications and below the “neutral” on oscillators. Therefore, the price is currently witnessing a weak “sell” signal. However, if the price drops below $5,197.16, indicators are likely to signal a stronger bearish signal.

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HFM · Apr 8, 2024 at 6:30 PM

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 9th April 2024.

Gold Renews Its All-Time Highs, But Oscillators Point to Caution!

• US indices underperform compared to global stocks as investors await the latest US inflation data.
• Oil is trading almost 22% higher in 2024 applying upward pressure on inflation and triggering a more cautious approach to tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index.
• The US Dollar declines and Gold rises in value despite the possibility of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
• The head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Dallas, Mrs Logan, advises it’s too early to think about lowering interest rates since the danger of inflation stabilizing above the target level remains.

XAUUSD – Buyers Maintain Control but Oscillators Point To The Assets Being Overpriced

The price of Gold trades steadily higher during this morning’s Asian session and is attempting to break yesterday’s all-time high. Gold has risen more than 15% since February 2024 as investors look at an alternative hedge against inflation. In addition to this, many countries including China and India look to lower exposure to the Dollar ahead of US elections. However, investors should note that if US inflation reads higher than expectation, demand for the Dollar may return.

Investors also should note that the inverse correlation between Gold and the US Dollar is slightly weaker than traditionally seen. Therefore, even with a more expensive Dollar, the price of Gold may simply retrace or correct, but retain the longer-term gains. According to Friday’s report from the US Commodity Futures Commission, the number of speculative positions for “sellers” remains weak. The latest report confirmed that only 0.719k more contracts were added for sellers and more than 21.200k added for buyers.



Technical analysis for Gold is two sided. Momentum-based indicators point towards an upward price movement as does price action. However, oscillators indicate the asset may be trading above its intrinsic value and may correct. A short-term correction may decline between 2,292.29 and 2,318.78. For another bullish impulse wave, technical analysts point at a target of 2,376 based on Fibonacci levels and the size of previous impulse waves.

EURUSD – ECB Rate Cut Upcoming According to Analysts

The Euro is gaining momentum since the start of the European Trading session. However, the price is trading slightly lower than the day’s open price. In addition to this, in the short-term the price is forming lower lows and lower highs. When monitoring each currency individually, the US Dollar is trading slightly higher while the Euro is unchanged.

No major economic data has been released in the past 24 hours or is due today. However, volatility is likely to significantly rise from tomorrow onwards. If US consumer inflation reads 3.5% or more, the price of the Dollar is likely to gain. If the monthly producer inflation on Thursday also reads higher than 0.3%, this will further fuel a potential bearish impulse wave.

However, another key factor will be the European Central Bank’s Rate Decision and Forward Guidance. If the ECB suddenly become more dovish, as analysts believe, the Euro may again struggle to hold onto its value, if the Fed are unlikely to adjust. Currently there is more pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates considering inflation has returned to normal levels amongst most state members and most countries are witnessing stagnation. Analysts currently expect the European regulator to be the first to cut interest rates and believe this will take place in June.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 10th April 2024.

The Fed Is Willing To Lower Expectations To Only 1 Cut In 2024!



* European defence stocks tumble and see the largest decline in 18 months as Goldman Sachs analyst warns the category is trading above its true value.
* US Treasuries Yields and the US Dollar Index remain unchanged as investors hold their breath ahead of today’s inflation release.
* Analysts expect US inflation to increase from 3.2% to 3.4%, but for Core inflation to decline to 3.7%.
* Federal Reserve President of the Atlanta bank, Mr Bostic, advises he is willing to adjust the outlook to only 1 rate cut in 2024. Keep reading to find out why and what the requirements will be.

GER40– Defence Stocks Overvalued According to Goldman Sachs

The DAX as well as general European Indices came under pressure from comments from a market respected analyst. According to the Goldman Sachs Analyst, Victor Allard, shares in European defensive stocks were trading above their true value and have little potential for further gains. As a result, stocks such as Rheinmetall AG, BAE Systems and Saab AB witnessed sharp declines. Saab AB stocks fell almost 10% within a single session.

However, the sentiment towards European stocks were dampened as a result of this. The main reason for Mr Allard’s view is the stock ratios do not back the growth. A good example of this is the price to earnings which is extremely high. Furthermore, Allard pointed out that defence stocks trade now at nearly 20 times forward earnings.

When monitoring the top 7 stocks which hold the highest weight within the index, the market can see a clear sign of profit taking. Five of these stocks have risen more than 10% in 2024 so far, which is higher than traditional gains, but over the past five days a large portion of that has been lost. The only stock which has seen strong gains and has maintained its momentum is Mercedes Benz which has risen almost 22% in 2024 so far. The most important stocks for the index during this earnings data will remain SAP SE, Siemens AG and Allianz.



The price of the index will now largely depend on tomorrow’s European Central Bank press conference and statement. Investors are keen to see when the ECB and Federal Reserve are likely to cut interest rates. If the regulator takes a more dovish approach, the economy is likely to witness much needed stimulation and investor sentiment towards the region is likely to rise. In addition to this, the Euro can potentially make indices cheaper to buy. As a result, this can support the DAX as well as other European indices. In the meanwhile, this afternoon’s US inflation data will be the key price driver for all assets.

USA100 – Price Performance Dependent on Fed Rate Adjustments and Today’s CPI!

The performance of the USA100 will primarily be dependent on this afternoon’s inflation data. However, technical analysts have been keen to point out that the US stocks have been unwilling to form strong longer-term declines. Nonetheless, higher inflation potentially can trigger a lower risk appetite and lower demand for equities. Particularly investors will be looking to see if inflation reads higher than the 0.3% expectations, including the Core CPI.

Later within the evening, investors will also be closely monitoring the FOMC Meeting Minutes for clues as to where the committee stand on possible interest rate cuts. This week Mr Bostic has already advised he would be willing to lower expectations for future cuts if inflation does not allow the Fed to act. According to Mr Bostic, he could consider lowering possible future adjustments from 3 cuts to only 1 for 2024. However, Mr Bostic said this was only possible if inflation stabilized above the target and the employment sector remains resilient. So far, jobs growth remains and it’s all dependent on inflation.



Technical analysis for the USA100 is signalling neither a sell or buy. The price is trading slightly higher than the 75-Bar EMA and at the 55.00 mark on the RSI. However, the price is forming a horizontal price range this morning. Therefore, for a buy signal to be confirmed, the price will need to form a bullish breakout and ideally inflation will not beat expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.