HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Date: 4th January 2024.

Market Recap:Sentiment stable for now.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• The Fed’s minutes to the December 12-13 meeting showed some pushback against imminent easing, while still acknowledging the rate cuts penciled in with the dots. The report showed “all” participants said clear progress had been made toward the inflation goal. Rates had likely peaked.
• “Several” thought the policy rate could remain restrictive for some time and peak rates could last longer than expected. Fed’s Barkin said there is still potential for additional rate hikes.
• China services index posted fastest expansion in 5 months amid optimism. Chinese wages in major cities declined by the most on record.
• Japanese manufacturing activity shrank by the most in 10 months in December, as demand ebbed in Asia’s largest advanced economy.

Market Trends:

• Wall Street extended its 2024 declines with weakness in tech shares weighing. The US100 (NASDAQ) slumped -1.18%, dropping for a 4th straight session, with the US500 (S&P500) falling -0.80%, while the US30 (DOW) was off -0.76%.
• JPN225 (Nikkei) dropped the most in two weeks, after the Fed minutes, also due to the powerful earthquake in the northwest on New Year’s Day and the runway collision between turboprop aircraft and Japan Airlines jet, which dragged down some companies.
• ASX fell 0.53% to trade near 7,495. Hopes that the RBA will no longer be raising rates have been partly driven by the Fed’s dovish shift.
• Chinese stocks remained the biggest drag in Asia following the jobs report – CSI 300 down by 0.9% after having slid as much as 1.6%.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex rallied from a session low of 102.07 to a peak of 102.40 before dipping to 102. Markets reassessed their expectations of the scale of rate cuts by the Fed this year.
• USDJPY regained ground up to 143.89 as the Japan market reopened.
• Gold slid to $2030 per ounce, in part hurt by the FOMC minutes, with the firmer US Dollar weighing too.
• Bitcoin steadied above 42500 after diving to 40K territory as $400M was liquidated in 2 hours, as Matrixport rebuffed optimistic reports!
• Key Mover: Crude oil perked up and climbed 3.65% to $72.95 per barrel as a shutdown at a Libyan oil field added to the concerns over Mid East tensions and supply. Currently traded above $73. Libya’s major Sharara oilfield, with a capacity of 300,000 bpd, completely shuts down due to protests.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 5th January 2024.

Market Recap: NFP day!


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• The focus now shifts to the jobs report. Recent data, including jobless claims and the employment components of the ISMs, continue to reflect a decent labor market even as conditions cool. We expect a 140k increase in nonfarm payrolls following gains of 199k in November, 150k in October, and 262k in September.
• Yields remain elevated and near session highs after firmer than expected employment data. The claims and ADP numbers added to the losses along with the rethink of Fed easing bets and spillover from European bonds after a stronger than expected inflation report.
• A heavy corporate issuance calendar exacerbated the selloff too.

Market Trends:

• Treasuries continued to stumble in the new year. A rethink of aggressive rate hike bets, better than expected data, profit taking, and supply have all conspired to cheapen yields across the board in the first week of 2024 trading.
• Wall Street finished mixed with the US100 falling -0.56%. The US500 was -0.34% lower, posting a 4th straight decline. The US30 inched up 0.03%.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex was choppy but ended marginally lower at 102.41, though inside the 102.15 to 102.52 range. It has held over 102 for a 3rd consecutive session.
• USDJPY rallied above 145. Yen has weakened amid speculation that the BOJ might go slowly on changing its lax policy stance as it assesses the impact of Monday’s major earthquake in central Japan.
• USOIL prices have increased 1.13% to $73.52 per barrel.
• Gold is fractionally lower at $2041 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 8th January 2024.

Bond Yields Rise Triggering Fear of Further Stock Weakness.


The US Non-Farm Payroll figures for December rose from 199,000 to 216,000 and beat expectations of 168,000. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly remained low at 3.7% instead of rising to 3.8%. However, the real shock came from the Average Hourly Earnings rising for a second consecutive month. So, how did the trading markets react and how are they reacting this morning?

XAUUSD – Technical Analysis Points to Potential Sell Signals

The price of Gold along with other Dollar-correlated assets at first benefited from the stronger than expected employment data. The price of Gold rose 1.31% and also formed a 0.34% bullish price gap. However, the asset struggled at the previous price range and quickly gave up gains. This morning the price of Gold is declining 0.70% which is considerably high for the Asian session and continues to maintain a sell signal on the 2-Hour Chart. The price is trading below the 75-bar average price and below the neutral on the Relative Strength Index. In addition to this, on the 5-Minute Chart the price is also forming a bearish crossover. All the above indicate a potential downward price movement and are likely to strengthen if the price declines below $2,029.00.



The US Dollar Index this during this morning’s Asian session is trading at the day’s open price, however, volatility is likely to strongly influence Gold. However, US Bond Yields are considerably higher this morning which potentially could support the Dollar throughout the day. If the Dollar Index and Bond Yields rise, the price of Gold has a higher possibility of witnessing bearish price movement.


USA100 – Bond Yields Rise Ahead of US CPI

The USA100 rose by 1.20% after the release of the US employment data and bullish volatility rose with strong momentum. According to order flow analysts, the upward price movement was partially triggered by the quick decline in entering pending orders. Investors were clearly looking to take advantage of the lower entry point. However, in addition to this, the employment data clearly indicates the strength of the employment sector, the economy and the ability to cope with higher interest rates. As a result, investor sentiment rose and was less concerned about the restrictive monetary policy.

However, the positive data also means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to feel the need to lower the Federal Fund Rate to support the economy. According to JPMorgan, the possibilities of an interest rate cut in March are now relatively low. Though the CM FedWatch Tool continues to indicate a strong possibility of a small cut in March. Therefore, investors are evaluating whether the assets and stock market may be overpriced considering the Fed is now likely to cut within the first 6 months of 2024.

According to Bloomberg, investors are less worried about when rate cuts will start as long as further hikes are unlikely. This is largely due to positive data and expectations of a “soft landing”. This shows the economy can deal with higher interest rates. The main concern for investors is that inflation does not rise. Thursday’s Consumer Price Index is likely to be particularly influential and inflation is expected to rise for the first time since September. If the Consumer Price Index reads higher than 0.2%, the USA100 potentially could witness a significant decline. Buyers will be hoping inflation reads no higher than 3.1%, or even better slightly declines.



The price movement this morning is trading lower, and investors’ main concern is the US market’s bond yields which are significantly higher. Higher bond yields can pressure the stock market and if yields continue to rise, stocks will become less attractive. Currently, the price of the USA100 is trading below the 75-Bar trend line, below the VWAP and below the neutral on the Relative Strength Oscillator. All three indicators point towards a potential decline. However, investors should note this is likely to change if the price rises above $16,435.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 9th January 2024.

The USA100 Climbs 2% and Chip-Makers Shine Ahead of Earnings.

• The USA100 climbs more than 2% as sentiment changes ahead of this week’s US consumer and producer inflation data.
• The US Dollar Index trades sideways as investor sentiment improves but participants are not yet fully disposing of the Dollar.
• Analysts advise the performance of the Dollar will largely depend on Thursday’s inflation data.
• Semiconductor companies such as NVIDIA and AMD outshine the rest of the stock market and particularly support the USA100 and SNP500.

USA100 – Can Stocks Hold onto Gains and Avoid Investor’s “Cashing In” Monday’s Profits?

The USA100 on Monday witnessed its strongest price increase since mid-November 2023 as investors take advantage of the lower entry price to position themselves ahead of US consumer inflation on Thursday. However, the lower price also provides an advantage for buyers to enter prior to the start of the earnings season.

The asset’s volatility will be considerably higher than normal and did not form a retracement for the whole of the US trading session. This clearly shows the session was dominated by buyers and that the market believes inflation will not rise above expectations. The strong bullish momentum is also a result of strong demand for stocks in the “Semiconductor” segment. This is most likely due to their strong earnings and growth over the past five quarterly earnings releases. NVIDIA stocks rose 6.43% and AMD rose 5.45%. Both are influential stocks for the USA100 and USA500.

When looking at the performance of the USA100’s components we can see all the top 20 most influential stocks holding the highest weight rose in value. In addition to this, 93% of the index ended the day higher and only 7% recorded a decline.

Bond yields this morning are higher again adding a further 0.040%, but the US Dollar sees little change. The higher bond yields are negative for the stock market if they remain high. For example, yesterday bond yields started higher but could not hold onto gains allowing stocks to rise. If bond yields and the Dollar both rise, traders may consider the possibility of investors cashing in yesterday’s profits. Though in the medium-term the price will depend on Thursday’s inflation data which will determine how rates may change.



In terms of technical analysis, the asset is witnessing clear buy signals due to the quick and strong upward price movement. However, investors will need to monitor crossovers, breakouts, and indicators throughout the day to determine how the price may develop in the short-term.

USDJPY – Japanese Inflation Data Declines as Expected!

The US Dollar is decreasing in value this morning for a third consecutive day, but not at a momentum to yet spark major sell signals. Investors in the Dollar are treading cautiously until the release of the US inflation data. If US inflation does indeed climb from 3.1% to 3.2%, a rate cut would indeed become unlikely for several months. According to some analysts, if inflation remains sticky for more than 2 months, rate cuts will not be likely until the last few months of the year.

However, if inflation declines and remains at 3.1%, the Dollar potentially can trade weaker. Up to now the strong employment sector and weakening inflation rate over the past 6 months has made a “soft landing” more likely. As a result, investors have been less interested in the Dollar and other safe haven assets such as bonds. However, this will only continue if a soft landing remains the most likely outcome and inflation remains low.

If the price rises above 144.305, buy signals are likely to materialize as bullish crossovers form and the price breaks the bearish wave pattern. However, if the price breaks below 143.65, the short-term crossover will point downwards.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 15th January 2024.

JPN225 Again Renews its All-Time Highs, Yen Down Against All Currencies!

• China keeps interest rates on hold at 2.5%, whereas investors were previously expecting another rate cut. Asian stocks mainly rise after the Bank of China announcement and Taiwan election results.
• The World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos. Economists, brokers and bankers will be discussing the global economy, interest rates and inflation throughout the day. Traders will be listening keenly to how bankers view inflation after US and EU inflation rose.
• No US trading on Monday 15th, for Martin Luther King Day, meaning limited volatility for the Dollar. Friday’s earnings data “mixed” and provides no particular support for stocks.
• The Pound sees “mixed” price movement on Monday before the release of major economic data for the UK.

GBPJPY – Investors Await UK Employment Data and Inflation!

Investors turn their attention to the GBPJPY ahead of major economic releases for the UK. Additionally, the Yen struggles against all currencies on Monday providing FX traders with further opportunities. The GBPJPY has risen 0.40% in this morning’s Asian session and continues to obtain buy signals from indicators. The Pound has been supported by the UK’s Gross Domestic Product which rose 0.3%. As a result, the UK economy continues to avoid a recession and the Bank of England is less likely to consider interest rate cuts.

The growth in the UK’s Gross Domestic Product was primarily due to the acceleration of the services sector by 0.4%. From the G7, the Bank of England is the regulator which is expected to cut interest rates the least. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in March or May, whereas the Bank is England is not likely to do so until the Summer. If this transpires, the Pound can potentially gain, particularly if the Bank of Japan remains ultra dovish.

The Pound is likely to experience a lot of volatility over the next two days due to four upcoming announcements. These include the change in Unemployment Claims, Average Earnings Index, the Bank of England Governor Speech, and the UK Consumer Price Index. If the UK’s employment sector remains resilient and inflation remains above expectations, the Pound is likely to again rise. Analysts expect inflation to decline from 3.9% to 3.8%. However, the Pound potentially can increase if inflation does not decline. Anything below 3.8% will be considered positive for the Pound.

In terms of technical analysis and indicators, the exchange rate has been obtaining buy signals since January 3rd. Since then, the price continues to trade above the price sentiment line, above 50.00 on the RSI and continues to form higher lows. If the price increases above 185.495, further buy signals will be seen as the asset crosses the 61.8 mark (Fibonacci). However, investors should note that this will also depend on tomorrow’s UK employment data and Bank of England Speech.



Nikkei225 Continues to Renew its All-Time Highs

Earnings season started on Friday, with mixed results from the banking sector. However, the global stock market performed generally well as US Producer Inflation unexpectedly fell. The JPN225 is increasing in value for a ninth consecutive day and is trading more than 6% higher than its previous all-time highs. The bullish price movement is a result of an ultra-supportive monetary policy and a weakening Japanese Yen.

Economists expect that the Bank of Japan in its quarterly outlook report will cut its initial estimate of inflation. This is considered a key indicator of the broader price trend, believed to weaken from the current 2.8% to 1.9% for both fiscal year 2024 and 2025. As consumer price growth has beaten the 2% threshold for more than 12 months, investors believe that the central bank will abandon its ultra-loose policy and increase the interest rate. The Bank of Japan’s interest rate has been at -0.10% since 2016. If rates rise, the JPN225 may struggle to hold onto gains unless earnings remain strong, and the global economy experiences higher growth.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 16th January 2024.

Dollar Demand Rises and Global Stocks Tumble, Find Out Why!

• Investors price in 6 rate cuts in 2024, but all Fed members remain hawkish. Economists advise investors are getting ahead of themselves and the Fed is only likely to cut 3 times.
• Finance giants gather in Davos and advise markets rate cuts are premature and the risk of inflation still remains.
• Trump beats Ron DeSantis in Iowa and is on track to represent the Republicans in the 2024 US elections.
• The UK’s employment sector remains resilient, but salaries again see a considerable slow-down. The salary slowdown pushes the Pound lower.

GBPUSD – UK Salaries Decline And Dollar Demand Rises!
The GBPUSD is trading at its lowest level since January 5th after being pushed lower by Dollar strength and UK data. The US Dollar Index has been increasing in value for 3 consecutive days due to higher inflation data and hawkish comments from global banking leaders. Another indication that interest rates are likely to remain high is this week’s bond yields. During this morning’s Asian session, the US 10-Year Bond Yields rose 0.055% and again rose above 4.00%. Higher bond yields are known to be Dollar bullish, but investors will monitor if bond yields can hold onto gains. This is something yields were not able to achieve last week.
The Pound this morning is declining against all currencies which provides traders with clear opportunities within the GBPUSD. However, the data from the UK is not “all bad” for the Pound. The UK’s Claimant Count Change read 11,700, lower than previous expectations and lower than the previous 3 months. Strong employment means higher consumer demand and means a trickier fight against inflation. However, the lower earnings do help regulators fight against inflation. As a result, investors are ditching the Pound in favor of the Dollar.
According to analysts, investors today have preferred the Dollar where there is already confirmation that inflation rose. Nonetheless, the Pound may correct if tomorrow’s UK inflation data is higher than the 3.8% expectations. Though, if inflation does read 3.8% or lower, the Pound may witness further downward momentum.
When evaluating indicators and technical analysis, the GBPUSD exchange rate is currently witnessing potential sell signals. The price is trading below trend-lines, average price movements and below the neutral on most oscillators. The price is also trading below the regression channel and the regression channel is also widening while declining. All the above indicates downward price movement, however, if the price rises above 1.27127, these signals can potentially change.


US30 – Global Sentiment Towards Stocks Declines. Eyes on Goldman Sachs Earnings!
The US30 is experiencing a decline during this morning’s Asian session, similar to all other US indices. The US30 was pressured by negative earnings data from the banking sector on Friday as well as the possibility of less rate cuts this year. However, technical analysts remind investors that the price has declined to a previous support level which the asset has not been able to break on the past 3 occasions. Traders monitor the price action as the asset tests this support level.
The next vital announcement for the asset will be Goldman Sach’s earnings report which will be made public before the US Session opens. Analysts expect the banking giant to see a 23% drop in earnings per share and a slight decline in revenue. Though, if the data is lower than expected, the stock price can decline. Goldman Sachs is the third most influential stock within the Dow Jones and holds 6.63% of the index.
Lastly, another negative for the USA30 is the stock market performance today globally; UK, EU and Asian indices are trading lower. The poor sentiment within the stock market is largely due to hawkish comments from the Fed and finance ministers in Davos. Analysts advise investors are pricing in up to 6-7 rate cuts in 2024, but banks are predicting 3-4.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 17th January 2024.

Eurozone Economic Trends: Inflation, Growth, and Central Bank Outlook.



In the ever-evolving landscape of the Eurozone economy, key indicators suggest a complex scenario of lower inflation and weakened growth. While central bank officials express optimism about a potential soft landing, the ongoing improvement in German ZEW investor confidence supports this outlook. As we delve into the intricacies of economic data, it becomes evident that the European Central Bank (ECB) is contemplating rate cuts later this year, despite maintaining a cautious wait-and-see stance, while investors are onec again buying into hopes of early trade cuts.

Eurozone data so far was mixed, with German HICP ticking up at the end of 2023 and German ZEW investor confidence coming in stronger than anticipated. At the same time, consumer inflation expectations declined, according to the latest ECB survey. ECB officials meanwhile continued to signal that it is too early to talk about rate cuts, even if ECB’s Villeroy repeated that rates are set to decline this year.

German Inflation Landscape: German HICP inflation, confirmed at 3.8% y/y for December, reflects a nuanced picture. The rise in national CPI to 3.7% y/y is partly attributed to base effects from a one-off energy support payment in December 2022. Notably, food price inflation eased to 4.6% y/y, contributing to an overall inflation rate of 3.5% y/y when excluding energy and food. The challenge lies in the impact of these rising prices on disposable income, weighing on demand and overall growth.

Economic Contractions and Optimism: The German GDP contracted -0.3% last year, with adjusted figures showing a flash estimate of -0.1%, potentially indicating a technical recession in the latter half of 2023. Factors such as high inflation, increased debt financing costs, and weakened domestic and external demand have posed challenges to the recovery from the pandemic. Despite these setbacks, German ZEW investor expectations unexpectedly improved, suggesting a cautious optimism driven by hopes of major central bank rate cuts.

Eurozone Industrial Production and Trade Dynamics: Eurozone industrial production contracted -0.3% m/m in November, aligning with expectations and signaling a potential decline in GDP for the last quarter of 2023. Concurrently, the Eurozone seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened to EUR 14.8 billion in November, driven by a rise in exports and a decline in imports. However, the subdued improvement in real terms indicates that the widening surplus may not necessarily signify an overall economic upturn.

Central Bank Insights and Currency Movements

ECB officials remain vigilant, emphasizing that it is premature to declare victory over inflation. Despite differing opinions within the central bank, the latest ECB survey shows a drop in consumer inflation expectations. Geopolitical risks further complicate the outlook, with potential impacts on inflation. Austrian central bank head Holzmann cautions against expecting a rate cut in 2024 amid increasing geopolitical threats.

In the current WEF Annual Meeting, ECB’s Lagarde flagged rate cuts in the summer. When asked about a possible rate cut in the summer the central bank head told Bloomberg she suggested that there is likely to be a majority in favor of such a move by then, but cautioned that the ECB has to be “data dependent”. Lagarde stressed “that there is still a level of uncertainty and some indicators that are not anchored at the level where we would like to see them”. Meanwhile, ECB’s Knot stated it’s unlikely that rates will go up again, but he warned that the ECB needs to see a turnaround in wages before making a decision and that any easing, if it happens, will be very gradual. Knot also stressed that the more easing markets are pricing in, the less likely it is that the ECB will indeed cut rates. More push back against excessive rate cut expectations has put bonds under pressure this morning, amid the large number of central bankers stressing that rate cuts are not on the agenda for now.



EURO: Central Bank and Growth Outlooks Influence Exchange Rates
In the currency markets, EURUSD has undergone correction in response to central bank and growth outlook uncertainties. With the USDIndex surpassing the 103 mark and Treasury yields fluctuating, EURUSD corrected to 1.0883, reflecting the dynamic interplay of market forces.

EURJPY has been oscillating within the 158.50-160.00 range after experiencing a robust rebound to a one-month peak of 160.17 last week.

From a technical perspective, the short-term range is delineated by the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous decline. Notably, the sequence of higher highs and higher lows, initiated from December’s low point, remains encouraging.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still hovering above its neutral mark of 50, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing marginal strengthening, positioned slightly above its zero and signal lines. This maintains a positive bias in the market sentiment.



Practically, for the bullish momentum to persist, a decisive close above the 160.00-160.50 zone is essential. This breakthrough could pave the way for an advance towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 162.00 and the previously breached ascending trendline from March 2023, located at 162.70. Further upward movement may retest the ceiling observed in November at 163.70-164.28.

Conversely, if the price dips below the 158.50 support, a period of consolidation might occur around the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 157.40 before sellers target the lower boundary of the bullish channel at 156.45. A bearish breakout from this point could extend towards the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) positioned at 155.20.

In summary, while EURJPY retains bullish momentum, a sustained breach above the 160.00-160.50 region is crucial for a more significant upside potential.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 18th January 2024.

Gold Council Indicates Higher Prices Amid Geo-Political Tensions.

• The US Dollar Index ends the day higher for a fifth consecutive day but declines during this morning’s Asian Session.
• Investors continue to lower the possibility of significant easing in 2024 after the latest US Sales data.
• US Core Retail Sales were twice as high as expectations and rose to a 3-month high. Additionally, US Industrial Production was 0.2% higher than analysts’ expectations.
• The British Pound gains after inflation rose from 3.9% to 4.00%. The GBPJPY this morning is trading close to all-time highs.
• Gold Report indicates high demand for Gold from institutions amid Middle East tensions and possible lower rates.

USA100 – The NASDAQ Declines But Outperforms Other Indices Due to Upcoming Earnings

The USA100 ended the day lower for the first time after 8 days of consecutive increases. However, technical analysts are noting that the price has shown signs of weakness since November 11th. The price yesterday fell to a new weekly low but quickly saw buyers re-enter the market. Earnings season starts next week for the technology sector and the bullish momentum is likely to remain only if earnings continue to impress. The Dow Jones and the SNP500 did not see an increase in buy orders like the NASDAQ. This is due to significant earnings expected next week for the technology sector.



When looking at the NASDAQ’s individual components, which determines and drives the price movement of the USA100, most stocks were trading lower. Of the top 20 influential stocks only six ended the day high. Of the “magnificent seven” stocks, only Meta rose in value, but not enough to obtain buy signals. From the most influential stocks Intel witnessed the strongest decline falling 2.12%.

Investors continue to scale back interest rate cuts after US data remains strong and economists at Davos correct the market’s outlook. The latest US data was the Retail Sales which read 0.6% and Core Retail Sales reading 0.4%. Both releases read higher than expectations and led to a decline in the USA100 and other indices. The higher UK inflation also lowered global investor sentiment. Today’s price movement globally signals a slight “risk on” sentiment but the question remains as to whether this will remain.

During this morning’s Asian session, the USA100 is trading higher increasing by 0.20%. If we look at most indices around the globe including the JPN225, GER40 and Hang Seng, all are rising. When looking at technical analysis, the price of the USA100 is yet to obtain a “buy signal” from Moving Averages and Oscillators. However, the price is trading higher than the VWAP indicator and buy orders are reading higher than sell orders. Therefore, if upward momentum remains, buy signals will start to materialize after surpassing $16,784.

XAUUSD – World Gold Council Indicates Higher Gold Prices!

Gold fell for a second day on Tuesday after the Dollar continued to strengthen. Bond Yields also rose, which applied further pressure on the commodity. However, Gold trades slightly higher this morning as the Dollar retraces and bond yields decline 0.010%. However, as the European Session opens the Dollar has slightly risen and most other major currencies are declining except the Yen. Therefore, the market still sees demand in safe haven currencies which can negatively affect Gold.

If Gold’s price remains above the pivot point at $2,005.70, buy signals are likely to continue to materialize. The same applies if XAUUSD rises above $2,014, but longer-term timeframes continue to signal weakness in Gold. However, the latest World Gold Council report advises the possibility of a higher Gold price remaining. According to the report, demand amongst central banks remains high and amid tensions in the Middle East many countries continue de-dollarization. Nonetheless, the timing cannot be known, therefore technical analysis remains vital.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 19th January 2024.

Market Recap: Global Stocks on AI rally; Yen Drifting.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• US labor-market data, strong weekly jobless claims, and higher-than-expected retail sales have added pressure against market rate-cut expectations.
• Markets now pricing a 57% chance of a US rate cut in March, down from 75% a week ago.
• Central bankers suggest markets are overly being aggressive in pricing rate cuts for 2024, contributing to the Dollar’s resurgence amid turbulence in China’s property and financial markets.
• Japan’s core inflation slowed to 2.3% in December, its lowest annual pace since June 2022, easing pressure on policymakers and weakening the Yen to 148.44 per dollar.
• UK: An unexpected rise in British inflation has also led to a pullback in bets on Bank of England rate cuts, supporting the Pound.

Market Trends:

• The TSMC projection of 2024 revenue growth of over 20% boosted Tokyo Electron and Advantest, contributing to a total 497-point jump in the Nikkei on the day, with respective advances of 6.03% and 8.2%.
• Chip-related shares, influenced by US peers’ gains, were prominent performers. Its earnings spurred the biggest rally in chipmakers in more than a month on Thursday and pushed the Nasdaq 100 index to close at an all-time high.
• Chip-industry stocks led a rally in Japan’s Nikkei share average, contributing to a 1.4% daily gain to close at 35,963.27, and a weekly gain of 1.09%.
• “The better-than-expected results from TSMC could be positive signals on demand recovery,” said An Hyungjin, chief executive officer and fund manager at Billionfold Asset Management Inc. “With strong AI demand, not only the US big tech firms but also most tech firms around the world have to invest in AI and that could be good news to stock markets.”

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex is set for a 2nd consecutive weekly gain as signs of strength in the US economy and cautious remarks from central bankers reduce expectations of rapid interest rate cuts.
• AUDUSD and NZDUSD are on track for their largest weekly gains since November and July, respectively.
• Bitcoin hit a 5-week low at $40,484 as traders took profits following US approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Investors poured $1.9 billion into new bitcoin ETFs in the first three trading days, falling short of some aggressive estimates.
• Oil prices held steady at a 3-week high amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, where the US and Iranian-backed Houthis engaged in tit-for-tat strikes affecting global shipping.
• UKOIL hovered around $79 per barrel after a 1.6% rise, while USOIL stood above $74, supported by a decline in US inventories. The US conducted multiple attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen, but shipping remains under threat. President Biden affirmed continued US strikes. Crude prices, marked by volatility, face conflicting factors, including Middle East tensions, Fed rate cut uncertainty, and a well-supplied market forecast by the International Energy Agency.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 22nd January 2024.

Market Recap: Stocks extend rally.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• China’s lending rates remain unchanged. That followed the PBOC’s decision to maintain borrowing costs earlier this month, which was another disappointment that did little to boost Chinese stock markets.
• Recent data showing resilient US economic activity has caused a shift in expectations, with markets now predicting rate cuts to start in May instead of March.
• European & US stock futures keep rising, extending the rally in global equities that pushed the US500, US100 and US30 to all-time highs. Optimism over expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and the artificial-intelligence boom boosted Equities.
• Interest rate futures indicate a 100 basis points gap between market expectations and the Fed’s own projections for year-end rates, contributing to the dollar’s struggles.
• In political news, Ron DeSantis withdraws from the US presidential race and endorses Republican front-runner Donald Trump ahead of the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.

Market Trends:

• Chinese markets underperformed again today toward their lowest level in almost two decades. The Hang Seng plunged -2.8%, the CSI 300 -1.5%. Chinese tech behemoths including Meituan and Tencent Holdings Ltd. were among the biggest drags.
• JPN225 rallied to a fresh 34-year peak today (closed at 36,546.85) on weaker yen but also mainly as the US500’s record-high close on Friday buoyed investor sentiment, despite continued signs of overheating in the Asian market.
• DAX and FTSE 100 are up 0.9% and 0.5% respectively while Treasuries have pared overnight gains, and the 10-year rate is now up 0.8 bp at 4.13%. The short end is underperforming in both the US and the EU.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex is struggling to extend above 103 due to uncertainties related to central bank decisions in Japan and Europe this week. EURUSD down to 1.0890.
• USDJPY had a notable movement, bouncing from a 1-month low to a high, impacted by the Bank of Japan’s 2-day meeting and the expiry of a large amount of currency options.
• Oil prices are down as OPEC member Libya restarted output at its largest field, bolstering global supplies and overshadowing for now concerns about tensions in the Red Sea that look set to continue disrupting shipping.
• Key events for the week include the first estimate of US Q4 GDP, central bank meetings in Japan, Canada and Europe, South Korean economic output data, and initial readings of purchasing managers’ surveys in Europe for 2024.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 23rd January 2024.

Market Recap: Asia stocks higher; Yen up post Ueda’s comments.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• China: Reports that Chinese officials are looking into a rescue package for the beleaguered stock market has given Asian equities, and particularly the Hang Seng, a big lift. Sources suggest authorities are proposing some $278 bln be invested in onshore funds.
• Japan: The BoJ left policy unchanged, maintaining its -0.100% policy rate and keeping YCC intact, as well expected. BoJ governor Ueda said there is more certainty in the outlook, which saw JGBs paring earlier gains. There were no significant indications on forward guidance. We see more of a dovish lean from the downwards forecasts, with the Bank likely to leave its stance in ultra-accommodative mode until April when the wage talks should be under our belt.

Market Trends:

• Asian stock markets mostly moved higher, with the Hang Seng surging 3% to a session peak of 15,472 before paring gains to 15,345. The CSI rose to 3240 after slumping to a 5 year low of 3218 yesterday. It was at a 2023 peak of 4201 in late January 2023.
• The JPN225 (Nikkei) is up 0.29% to 36,630.
• Stock futures are higher across Europe, but while the US100(NASDAQ) has found buyers, the US30(Dow Jones) is slightly lower but holds above its record high at 38k.
• Microsoft and other tech giants along with Goldman shares, which jumped 1%, have boosted the Dow higher.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex slipped to 102.70 from 103.384 and is seeing broadbased declines.
• USDJPY has been choppy, spiking to 148.55 before drifting down to 147.86.
• Oil prices reached $75 again, as US and UK launch new strikes at Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, adding to the tension in Middle East.
• BTCUSD dropped below $40,000 as the launch of the first US ETF holds the digital currency abated, as investors take profits off the table. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 6% to $2,325.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 24th January 2024.

Market Recap: China bourses move higher amid stimulus hopes; JGB yields spike.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Expectations the FOMC is done hiking rates continued to support Wall Street even if aggressive rate cut bets have been trimmed, while earnings were mixed.
• Yields remain mostly higher, but off their peaks after the decent 2-year auction ($60 bln 2-year note sale). The Treasury is selling $61 bln in 5-year notes Wednesday and $41 bln in 7-year notes Thursday.
• Corporate supply has helped keep the market heavy. IADB priced a $4 bln 5-year SOFR. Also, Romania sold $4 bln in 5- and 10-year notes. Sweden sold a $2 bln 2-year. Bank of New Zealand priced a $750 mln 5-year. Cote d’Ivoire has a $2.6 bln 2-parter. CPPIB Capital offered $1.5 bln in 3-year SOFR.
• Japan reported its exports jumped nearly 10% in December.
• Japanese markets underperformed, with both stocks and bonds hit by speculation that the BOJ is laying the ground for an exit from the negative interest rate environment.
• The China Securities Regulatory Commission, called for better protections for investors and for instilling confidence in the potential for gains in the markets, which have faltered in recent months.

Market Trends:

• Asia: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 2% to 15,569.39, helped by gains in technology companies like e-commerce giant Alibaba, which surged 3.8%. JPN225 (Nikkei) lost 0.8% to 36,226.48.
• The US500 added to its gains, rising 0.29% to its third straight fresh all-time high at 4864.6 US30 however was drag lower as 3M tumbled more than 10% on Tuesday after the company’s 2024 profit outlook came in below expectations.
• eBay will lay off about 9% of its full-time workforce.
• Procter & Gamble climbed 4.1% & United Airlines flew 5.3% higher after stronger profit for Q4 2023.
• Netflix rallied 8% afterhours after the video streaming service handily beat subscriber estimates in the Q4.
• ASML Holding, a chipmaking equipment maker, reported Q4 earnings that beat expectations and its best-ever quarterly orders, but it kept a cautious outlook for 2024 as it faces new restrictions on exports to China.
• Futures are higher across Europe and the US as Treasuries and Eurozone bonds advance.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex found legs and rallied to 103.57. It was firmer against 7 of its G10 peers
• USDJPY steadied on 147.70 as Yen gained support after chief Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the prospects of achieving the BOJ’s inflation target were gradually increasing.
• Oil finished -0.3% lower at $74.51 per barrel and Gold was 0.3% higher at $2028.34 per ounce.
• Bitcoin steadied around $39,700, after sliding as low as $38,505 on Tuesday for the first time since Dec. 1.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 25th January 2024.
Market Recap: Has US avoided recession in 2023? ECB also on tap.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Treasuries were weak with yields extending higher still, hit by the double whammy of stronger than expected PMI data and an ugly 5-year auction.
• The healthy rally on Wall Street also weighed, though stocks trimmed gains into the close.
• China bourses continued to rally after the PBOC stepped up support measures yesterday by cutting reserve requirements, while hinting at possible rate cuts.
• ECB Preview: The central bank is widely expected to keep policy settings unchanged and stick with a wait-and-see stance for now, which means rate cuts are not on the immediate agenda.

Market Trends:

• Hang Seng and CSI 300 already staged a late rally yesterday and continued to move higher today, with gains of 1.8% and 2.0% respectively.
• European futures are in the red, however, as the ECB meeting comes into view.
• US futures are slightly higher on the anticipation of US GDP later on which could provide clues as to where US rates might be headed.
• Tesla’s profits plummet! Tesla (-5.93% after hours) posted a 23% decline in profits for 2023, its 1st annual decline since 2017!
• Microsoft becomes 2nd company ever to top $3 trillion valuation on AI-driven rally. Apple remains at the top.
• FAA halts Boeing 737 MAXproduction expansion. Boeing -1.32% after hours.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex slipped to a session nadir of 102.52 but bounced back to 103.25 to close over the 103 level for a 7th straight session.
• EURUSD is steady at 1.0880. The USDJPY regained some ground after hints at rate rises in Japan triggered selling in the Japanese government bond market. It remains below 148.
• USOIL was up 1.45% to $75.44 per barrel amid ongoing geopolitical risks and following a bigger than expected US inventory draw.
• Gold was down -0.83% to $2012.50 on the stronger PMI data and further trimming in rate cut bets. Markets have reined in expectations for early rate cuts in the US and Europe, and BoJ governor Ueda yesterday hinted that the exit from the negative interest rate environment is coming into view. That should keep gold range bound for now.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 29th January 2024.

The Week Ahead – Earnings, Central Banks and Geo-Political Tensions!

• Tensions rise in the Middle East as three US Soldiers are killed in a base near the Syrian-Jordan border after being attacked by Iran-backed militants. Crude Oil price opens 1.15% higher.
• Gold rose 0.63% on Monday due to rising tension in the Middle east. Traders are evaluating whether the market will witness a “risk-off” sentiment this week.
• All eyes on the Federal Reserve’s press conference on Wednesday. Analysts expect the Federal Fund Rate to remain unchanged, but the Press Conference will signal the Fed’s future path.
• The US economy grew 3.3% in the latest quarter, beating expectations of 2.0%. In addition to this, Pending Home Sales rose 8.3% and the Core PCE Index rose from 0.1% to 0.2%.

XAUUSD – Geo-Political Tension Again on The Rise

The US Dollar Index did open Monday’s trading slightly higher, however, has fallen 0.10% over the past 2 hours as of the time of writing. Instead, investors are increasing exposure to Gold. Gold prices are trading 0.63% higher during this morning’s Asian Session and have risen above the most recent resistance levels. When evaluating technical analysis, the price of the commodity is trading above price sentiment indicators, above the neutral on most oscillators and above the day’s VWAP. Here we can see potential “buy” signals, however, investors also should note significant resistance points at $2,037.80. This level has triggered declines on eight occasions over the past month. If the price maintains momentum and crosses this level, Gold will move into the “buy” region of the Fibonacci levels.

The price is largely being driven by two factors: the decline in the Dollar and lower investor sentiment due to rising Middle East tensions. The group which conducted the attack is not yet known, however, President Biden has already advised the US will retaliate. According to the White House, the group is most likely an Iranian-backed militant group which is the main concern for investors. Though investors should note that this will only have a short-term effect if the situation does not escalate.

The next price drive will be the Federal Reserve’s Press Conference and the central bank’s forward guidance on interest rates. This will determine if institutions decide to further expose their funds to the Dollar or look for alternatives. The main alternatives will be Gold and US Bonds. If investors are unconvinced the Fed will keep rates high, Gold could benefit from a weaker Dollar. Tomorrow’s JOLTS Job Openings could also create further volatility.



USA100 – Investors Eye Earnings and Fed Press Conference

US investors are concerned about the developments over the weekend and as a result the rising oil price. Another concern for investors is also if the Fed gives an ultra-hawkish signal on Wednesday after strong economic data last week. Last week, the US PMI rose higher than expectations as did the economy’s Gross Domestic Product. Though stocks and shareholders will equally be monitoring this week’s quarterly earnings reports from major companies.

Tuesday Quarterly Earnings Report

Microsoft – +1.01% over the past week.

Alphabet – +3.30% over the past week.

AMD – +1.58% over the past week.

Wednesday Quarterly Earnings Report

Apple – Unchanged over the past week.

Amazon – +1.35% over the past week.

Meta – +1.61% over the past week.

The performance of the USA100 will largely depend on whether the above earnings are higher than Wall Street’s expectations and on the Fed’s Press Conference. If the Fed is viewed as “ultra-hawkish”, stocks are likely to experience significant pressure if earnings do not exceed expectations.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 30th January 2024.

The Yen Tops All Competitors and Investors Turn to Tech Earnings.

• Monday’s best performing currency was the Japanese Yen which took advantage of a lack of economic data and a rise in geopolitical tensions.
• Analysts advise institutions may increase exposure in the Yen due to geopolitical tensions. Japan’s unemployment rate declines to 2.4%, the lowest in 10-months.
• The USA100 rises ahead of tonight’s vital quarterly earnings reports. Of NASDAQ’s 20 most influential stocks, only three saw a slight decline.
• Tesla and Illumina were NASDAQ’s best performing stocks, rising more than 4% each.

USA100 – Microsoft and Alphabet Earnings Upcoming

The USA100 rose 1.21% on Monday as demand again rose ahead of major earnings from five of the “magnificent seven”. Tonight, investors await the quarterly earnings reports from Microsoft, which yesterday rose 1.43%, and Alphabet, which rose 0.68%. However, investors must also monitor the earnings data from AMD which is the 11th most influential stock for the index.

Even with the strong bullish price action over the past 4 weeks, investors should be cautious about short-term volatility. During this morning’s Asian session, the USA100 is trading 0.16% lower. US indices are known to decline towards the end of the US session and within the Asian session. However, if the price maintains momentum, sell signals can arise. On the 2-hour chart, the price is trading above the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and above the “neutral” on the RSI. Both indicate strong buying sentiment. However, the latest candlestick is bearish meaning buy signals are not currently active. Fibonacci levels indicate support may be found between $17,505.88 and $17,5870. If the price rises above $17,633, signals will again arise.



So far this morning the US Dollar Index is trading lower, and bonds are increasing in value. Both are indications that the stock market can potentially gain. However, in order for the USA100 to see significant upward price movement, the index will also need to be supported by tonight’s earnings data.

XAUUSD – Fed’s Future Guidance Key For Gold

Gold is currently experiencing strong volatility in both directions but continues to see buyers overpowering sellers. If we look at the price action from the price gap, the commodity rose by 0.47% and from Friday’s close 0.72%. We can see here even with strong bearish volatility at times throughout the day, Gold still finalized a considerable increase. Gold’s price rose a further 0.15% during this morning’s session, but analysts are slightly cautious about the resistance level.



The resistance level at $2,040 has been intact throughout the whole month and was only temporarily able to break above this level. Nonetheless, trend and momentum indicators are signalling upward price movement. Today’s CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings will significantly influence the price action of the Dollar and subsequently Gold. If the two economic releases read higher than expectations, Gold can potentially correct back downwards. However, a lower figure can further fuel the upward movement due to its hedge against inflation and alternative to the Dollar.

According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s latest report, the number of buy contracts rose by 2.211 thousand and sell contracts fell 11.280 thousand. Here we can see a possible shift towards bullish speculation.

EURJPY – Japanese Yen Currently The Best Performance Currency

The best performing currency of the day and the week so far is the Japanese Yen. Investors are returning to the Japanese Yen as most currencies within the G7 are expected to cut rates in the upcoming months, whereas analysts expect the Bank of Japan to slightly increase rates just before the summer. According to fundamental analysts, the Yen’s haven status can also serve as an alternative to the Dollar while geopolitical tensions rise.

The Japanese Yen is increasing against all currencies but one of its strongest price movements is against the Euro. The Euro has been put under pressure from a dovish outlook set by investors, not necessarily the Central Bank representatives. In addition to this, France’s Flash GDP figures for the latest quarter read 0.0%, meaning the country was very close to officially being in a recession. Investors now turn to Germany and Italy. If both regions also see lower a lower gross domestic product growth rate, the Euro can experience further pressure.

The Japanese Yen on the other hand is likely to be influenced by three releases scheduled for tonight’s Asian Session. Japan will release the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions, the Prelim Industrial Production and Retail sales. Higher data and a more hawkish central bank can support the Yen further, as did today’s Japanese Unemployment Rate. Japan’s unemployment rate today fell from 2.5% to 2.4%. investors also should note that weaker US data can also support the Japanese Yen indirectly.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 31st January 2024.

US Technology Stocks Decline Ahead of the Fed’s Press Conference.

• US Technology Stocks decline ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and press conference. Only the Dow Jones witnessed bullish price movement during the US session.
• Both Microsoft and Alphabet beat earnings and revenue expectations, but stocks declined. Find out why below.
• The Euro rose in value against all currencies on Tuesday, but the region’s Gross Domestic Product continues to indicate stagnation and a risk of a recession.
• The US Dollar Index trades higher but US Bond yields fall to weekly lows.

USA500

The SNP500 fell 0.33% during yesterday’s trading session and formed a 0.10% bearish gap during this morning’s Asian session. The price has since formed a price range which traders can use as a breakout level at $4,909.11 and $4,901.40. The decline in the index was largely triggered by the upcoming Federal Reserve Press Conference and “profit taking”, according to analysts.

Overnight the market focused on the quarterly earnings reports from Microsoft and Alphabet. Microsoft is the most influential stock and holds a weight of 7.31%. Microsoft stocks fell by 0.28% before the announcement and a further 0.25% after the announcement. Volatility levels were relatively low and according to analysts, the upcoming Fed announcement may potentially be the reason why. In addition to this, Microsoft did not add anything particular to their forward guidance which disappointed investors.



Microsoft Earnings beat expectations by 5.80% and Revenue by 1.45%. In addition to this, investors are also cautious about the fact that growth is largely being witnessed in the Azure and cloud services. Whereas the other 7 sectors are seeing relatively lower growth. Bloomberg advises the company earnings are solid and do not indicate a need for a selloff or significant decline. However, neither do we have any indications of upward price movement.

Alphabet stocks on the other hand saw a larger decline after their earnings report was published. The earnings per share figure was 2.50% higher than expectations and revenue only 1%. Even though the earnings were higher than expectations, shareholders were still largely disappointed. The previous 4 quarters saw earnings beat between 7% and 10%. According to analysts, investors took this as an opportunity to cash in profits and so there was no need to hold onto positions for the time being.

Of the USA500’s most influential 10 stocks, only 2 ended the day higher and from the 50 most influential stocks 28 rose in value. Here we can see that the individual stocks and components are not giving a clear picture and most likely tonight’s Fed comments will determine the price movement over the next 24-48 hours.



EURUSD

The Euro saw moderate increases against all currencies during the European session but lost momentum once the US session opened. However, the price this morning is showing much stronger volatility in favor of the Dollar. In addition to this the US Dollar Index is rising in value during this morning’s Asian Session. So, are investors increasing their exposure to the Dollar ahead of tonight’s Federal Reserve decision, statement, and press conference? Traders will monitor if this will be the pattern for the day.

The Dollar is once again being supported by considerably stronger than expected economic data. JOLTS Job Openings rose from 8.93 million to 9.03 million, higher than the previous 2 months and higher than expectations. In addition to this the CB Consumer Confidence also rose to its highest level since December 2021. If the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, gives a more hawkish press conference compared to recent ones, the Dollar can indeed potentially rise further. For example, if the Fed advises the FOMC will not vote for rate cuts in the first 2 quarters for the year.

When monitoring technical analysis, the price of the exchange is below trend lines, in the sell zone of oscillators and trading below the regression channels. All factors currently indicate Dollar dominance.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 1st February 2024.

Dollar Rises As Fed Confirms No Rate Cut At March’s Meeting.

• The Federal Reserve Chairman advises journalists that interest rate cuts are not likely in March. However, bond yields continue to decline indicating institutions continue to believe cuts are impending.
• The USA100 declines by 2.5% over two consecutive days after earnings data was unable to support individual stocks.
• Futures market points lower in Europe and Asian stocks show no clear direction. Traders are considering if investors will take advantage of the lower price ahead of tonight’s vital earnings data.
• Stock traders turn their attention to earnings from Apple, Amazon and Meta. The three stocks make up almost 18% of the NASDAQ.

EURUSD – The US Dollar Rises Against All Currencies!

The EURUSD exchange saw one of the highest levels of volatility amongst the “major currency pair” category. The exchange rate saw two significant impulse waves which can be explained using fundamental factors. The first impulse wave was in favor of the Euro and was largely due to the German inflation data reading higher than expectations. The correction which followed in the US session was due to the Fed’s comments on future interest rates.



This morning the exchange rate trades 0.30% lower and continues to obtain sell signals against the Dollar. The US Dollar Index is trading at its highest level since early December 2023. The Euro on the other hand is not witnessing any significant price movements against other major competitors. The Euro upward price movement was generally weak against the Dollar as German inflation still fell despite the smaller decline and also French inflation fell by a considerable -0.2%.

The US Dollar saw some negative economic data for the first time in over two weeks in yesterday’s session. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change read 41,000 lower than expectations and the Employment Cost Index for the quarter fell to its lowest level since July 2021. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve confirmed in their press conference that a rate cut in March is not likely. According to analysts, the Fed will not likely cut at the March meeting unless employment data takes a serious hit. According to the CM Exchange, there is a 92% chance of a rate cut in May and a certain cut by June at the latest. The Fed did not give any indications that this is not possible and is being backed this morning by declining yields. The question is who will opt for larger and more frequent cuts, the Fed, the ECB or the Bank of England.

USA100 – Will Investors Continue Profit Taking?

The USA100 saw a considerable downward price movement on Wednesday and order flow analysis indicates seller overpowering buy orders. In addition to this, the assets traded below the volume weighted average price throughout the whole day. Technical analysis and order flow indicate a decline in the asset; however, traders also need to consider if investors will look to re-enter at a lower price.

This will largely depend on tonight’s earnings data. Analysts expect Apple, Amazon, and Meta to witness significantly higher earnings as well as revenue. However, the question is whether the companies will beat expectations. Investors will also be closely monitoring reviews on the new Apple headset. These reviews and future sales figures can significantly affect Apple stocks which hold 8.78% of the NASDAQ. So far, reviews are positive in terms of the technology and experience, but negative in terms of the price and demand due to the high cost.



GBPJPY – Investors Turn Their Attention to Bank of England Votes

The GBPJPY is decreasing in value for its fourth consecutive day and is trading at its lowest level since January 16th. Throughout the year the Japanese Yen is expected to perform well due to being the only Central Bank which will not be cutting interest rates. However, in the short-term, the price action will depend on this afternoon’s Bank of England Press conference and “Committee Votes”.

The rate decision is without a doubt not going to change this month, however, the change in votes can create volatility. Analysts expect 2 members of the committee to vote for another interest rate increase, which is lower than last month’s 3 votes. If the votes are more hawkish than expectations, the Pound can rise. Whereas less votes for rate increases or a vote for a decrease would significantly pressure the Pound.



Technical analysis signals a downward trend when evaluating momentum and trend-based indications. However, the price has fallen to the previous resistance level which can be flipped to a support.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 2nd February 2024.

The S&P500 Renews Its All-Time-Highs. Investors Turn to Upcoming US Data.

• Investors take advantage of the lower purchasing price amongst technology company stocks. The NASDAQ recovers and trades closer to previous highs.
• Apple, Amazon, and Meta earnings beat Wall Street’s expectations. Apple falls 2.92%, Amazon rises 7.11% and Meta trades more than 15% higher.
• Apple revenue rises for the first time in over 12-months. Nonetheless, investors still sold shares as the company confirmed they are encountering difficulty in China, one of their largest markets. China previously has accounted for up to 25% of Apple’s revenue.
• Analysts expect the US Unemployment Rate to rise from 3.7% to 3.8% and for the NFP Employment Change to read 188,000.

USA500 – Earnings Push the USA500 to All-Time Highs

The USA500 was the best performing index on Thursday increasing in value by 1.25% and rising to a new all-time high. Technical analysis currently continues to indicate upward price movement. The asset trades above moving averages, above the Volume Weighted Average Price and oscillators continue to indicate buyers are controlling the market. The only concern for investors is the previous resistance level and if demand will decline at such a high price.



The price this morning trades within a price range between $4,937.90 and $4,928.87. If the price breaks above this level the assets’ buy signals can potentially strengthen. The upward price movement is supported by company earnings data. Apple, Amazon and Meta easily beat earnings and revenue data. Apple was the only stock which saw a decline after earnings due to negative data from China, its second most important market. Meta and Amazon on the other hand saw a significant rise in demand.

The Unemployment Rate is expected to increase from 3.7% to 3.8% and the Average Hourly Earnings to decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. The Nonfarm Payrolls may also decrease from 216,000 to 188,000. According to analysts, the ideal release would be slightly weaker figures but not weak enough to indicate harsher economic conditions. Though weaker data can prompt the Fed to consider a rate cut earlier. However, higher and stronger employment data can temporarily pressure the stock market as it supports rates remaining higher for longer.

Important earnings reports will continue today and on Monday for the USA500. This morning ExxonMobil and Chevron will announce their earnings. Over the past month, neither stock has seen any significant bullish price movement. On Monday, McDonald’s and Caterpillar will announce their earnings. Both stocks are trading slightly higher in 2024.

GBPUSD – Bank of England Member Votes for Rate Cut!

The price of the British Pound rose in value against the currency market as a whole and the US Dollar Index moderately fell. During yesterday’s session the Cable rose 0.46% and is also trading higher this morning. However, investors should be cautious of upward price movements as the Bank of England were deemed to be more dovish than their global partners.

The Bank of England has a Monetary Policy Committee made up of 9 members. None of the nine members have ever voted for a rate cut in the past 4 years, until now. Only 2 members of the committee voted for a hike, which is lower than previous months. 6 voted for a pause and 1 voted for a rate cut. Additionally, the Governor of the central bank also said the regulator would consider a rate cut later in the year.

Lastly, investors will have their attention fixed on this afternoon’s upcoming economic releases across the Atlantic. If the US employment data and Consumer Sentiment read stronger than expectations, the Dollar can potentially attempt a correction.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 5th February 2024.

Market Recap – Dollar shines;Gold in free fall as US consistently defies recession fears.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• An eyepopping January jobs report capped off a huge week of events that ended with fresh record highs on Wall Street – FOMC indicated it was done with tightening.
• Dollar up as any hopes for a March rate cut were wiped out. Meanwhile, further evidence of the robust economy added to the growing optimism for 2024 after 2023 ended on a high note.
• The China Securities Regulatory Commission has announced its commitment to intensifying the enforcement of measures targeting offenses like market manipulation and malicious short selling. Simultaneously, it aims to direct a greater influx of medium and long-term funds into the market.
• Market sentiment was also negatively impacted by remarks from former President Donald Trump, who suggested the possibility of imposing tariffs exceeding 60% on imports of Chinese goods if he were to be re-elected.
• German trade surplus widened, but exports plunged – Germany’s export oriented model is struggling with geopolitical tensions.

Market Trends:

• Treasuries fell, extending Friday’s selloff.
• Massive earnings beats from Meta (20%) and Amazon (+7.87%) saw the US major Indices surging by more than 1%, while Nvidia closed 4.74% higher.
• Asian stocks were mostly lower as Chinese shares extended declines despite a series of stimulus measures and the securities regulator’s latest pledge to shore up the market. – the FED, China’s property sector & tepid investor sentiment are all pressuring the Chinese equity market.
• European futures are also narrowly mixed, while US futures are posting broad losses.
• Today: January PMI data for France, Germany, UK & Eurozone and US ISM Services.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex held gains, just a breath below 104, while EURUSD drifted below 1.0800. GBPUSD held in December’s range.
• The Yen crept lower to trade above $148.
• USOIL steadies above $72 as the US vowed more strikes against Iran’s forces while the Houthis promised to retaliate against bombardments over the weekend.
• Gold weakened!

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 6th February 2024.

Market Recap – Stocks surge as hopes of rate cuts recede; USD, yields higher.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Treasury yields elevated and US government bonds remained in a selloff after Fed Chair Powell pointed to fewer interest rate cuts this year than markets had been projecting.
• Strong ISM services index added to the selloff for Treasuries, as did the concession building ahead of this week’s $121 bln Treasuries auction.
• RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% – 12-year high. Surprisingly the statement indicated that “a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out,” hence leaving a hawkish bias in place. – possibly this is more prudence and a cautious move in order to keep rate cut expectations from building. Forecasts show inflation will not be coming into the 2% to 3% target range until 2025, hence the hawkish slant, and will not hit the midpoint until 2026.
• BOE’s Huw Pill said that he did not need to see underlying inflation actually hit the 2% target to begin lowering rates.
• UK retail sales slowed in January.
• An unexpected jump in German manufacturing orders at the start of the European session reduced the pressure on the ECB to cut rates. German manufacturing orders unexpectedly jumped 8.9% y/y. This was the strongest bounce since June 2020 – glimmers of hope but overall demand subdued!

Market Trends:

• Chinese stocks rose after the announcement that China’s securities regulator will meet President Xi Jinping.
• Equities declined in Japan, Australia and South Korea. Topix fell 0.8% in the early trade ahead of earnings releases from Toyota Motor and Mitsubishi Corporation. JPN225 (Nikkei) fell 0.5%.
• US and European futures contracts showed modest gains this morning, extending the positive lead in Asia.
• UBS Group AG said it will resume share buybacks this year, vowing to hand as much as $1 billion to shareholders in the second half.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex rallied on the less dovish Fed outlook, rising to test 104.60 before dipping back to 104.15 today.
• The AUDUSD rallied to 0.6520 as Aussie bond yields jumped with the benchmark rising over 7 bps to 4.166.
• USOIL recovered modestly from its better than -7% plunge last week, rising to $73.28 per barrel before drifting down to $72.98.
• Gold fell to an overnight nadir of $2014.95 per ounce thanks in part to the rise in bond yields, but inched up to finish at $2026.30, the weakest since January 26.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.