HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Date: 11th October 2023.

Market Update – Asia stocks hit 2-week high as Fed talk turns dovish.



Stock markets moved higher overnight, as jitters over the Israel-Hamas war continued to ease and traders trimmed expectations for further rate hikes in the US. There were also reports of further and more comprehensive stimulus measures for China, although while the Hang Seng rallied, the CSI 300 managed only fractional gains. European futures are in the red, after a broad rally yesterday. US futures are narrowly mixed.



Germany: HICP is still nowhere near the 2% target and with oil prices already backing up again, and wage growth still high, inflation is likely to continue to overshoot target for the foreseeable future.

• USDIndex: At 105.95, after correcting on dovish leaning Fed comments yesterday. The USDJPY recovered to 148.92 from 148.16 lows.
• Stocks: Treasury yields continued to drop and Wall Street extended recent gains amid rising expectations the FOMC is done. A haven bid has helped support Treasuries too. Wall Street climbed with the US100 rising 0.58% while the US500 advanced 0.52%. The US30 improved 0.4%. Gains were broad-based.
• Oil prices have continued to nudge down from the high of $87.24 per barrel seen early on Monday as markets continue to weigh the impact of Hamas’ attack on Israel over the weekend. USOIL is currently at $84.50, UKOIL at $87 per barrel. The direct impact may be limited, but there remains concern of a widening of the conflict and escalating tensions across the Middle East. If evidence of direct involvement from Iran is found, US sanctions on Teheran could also be tightened. Iran has raised production to a five-year high, but most oil is being shipped to China. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Venezuela and the US have made progress in talks that could provide sanctions relief to Caracas by allowing at least one additional foreign oil firm to take Venezuelan crude oil – under certain restrictions.
• Gold gained more than 2% yesterday and another 0.39% so far today, at $1868 as haven flows spiked.

Today: US PPI & FOMC Minutes.

Date: 11th October 2023.

Market Update – Asia stocks hit 2-week high as Fed talk turns dovish.



Interesting Mover: COCOA up by 1.25% to 3473 retesting the upper line of 12-day channel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 12th October 2023.

Market Update – October 12 – The key US Inflation.


Stock markets moved higher across Asia, with the Hang Seng outperforming again as tech stocks strengthen. China stimulus hopes are also helping, and the CSI300 lifted 0.9%. The JPN225 bounced 1.8% after a stronger close on Wall Street yesterday. Last night, FOMC minutes were largely in line with expectations and what came out of the September policy meeting and dot plot. Expectations the FOMC and likely the ECB and BoE were at peak rates continued to keep a bid in bonds. Most Treasury yields richened for a fourth day out of the last five as haven demand and dovish Fed expectations underpinned. The long end outperformed in a curve flattener after a hotter than expected PPI report weighed on the front end. Bunds are outperforming in early trade and Eurozone spreads are narrowing. The short end continues to underperform, but 2-year rates are also down in Germany and the US.



US CPI Forecast: It is expected to show gains of 0.2% for the headline and 0.3% for the core after respective increases of 0.6% and 0.3%. CPI gasoline prices look poised to pop 1.4% in September. However, we expect dissipating upward pressure on core prices into 2024 as disruptions from global supply chain bottlenecks and the war in Ukraine subside. As-expected September CPI figures would see the y/y headline decelerate to 3.5% from 3.7% in August, and down from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June ’22. We expect the core y/y gain to slow to 4.1% from 4.3%, and versus a 40-year high of 6.6% in September. Though still well above the 2% target, the further signs of slowing could be sufficient for all but the most hawkish on the Committee, to favor no change in rates next month, especially given the tightening in financial conditions through early October.

• USDIndex eased further on the softer Fed view, but ranged narrowly between 105.80 and 105.20.
• UK: GDP rose 0.2% m/m in August, while the July reading was revised down to -0.6% m/m from -0.5% m/m reported initially. The visible trade deficit widened and apart from the rebound in services, the report still signals a weakening economy. If latest surveys are anything to go by, September will look worse, as the bounce in services doesn’t seem to have lasted long. The September Services PMI was firmly in contraction territory, with no sign of a quick recovery. The outlook then is not great.
• Stocks: Wall Street caught a bid into the close and finished in the green after a choppy session as investors gauged the potential spread of hostilities from the Israel-Hamas war. The US100 advanced 0.71%, while the US500 and US30 were up 0.43% and 0.19%, respectively. Defensive-related sectors in the US500 outperformed.
• USOil prices down for the third day in a row, with key resistance at $83.

Today: US Inflation & Jobless claims



Interesting Mover: Gold broke $1880 (20 DMA & 50% Fib.) as markets scale back US rate hike expectations and the USD corrects. Haven demand amid raised geopolitical risk in the Middle East also continues to underpin demand for the precious metal.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 13th October 2023.

Market Update – October 13 – OIl & Gold rise, USD falls.

Stock markets sold off across Asia, after a weaker close on Wall Street. Rate hike concerns picked up again in the wake of the hotter than expected US inflation print yesterday and still tight jobless claims numbers and put stocks on the back foot. The reports saw the market price back in risk of another Fed rate hike this year of about 38%, though the probability was briefly as high as 50-50. The data, the threat of another Fed hike, and geopolitical risks soured investor sentiment.

European futures are also in the red, while US futures show signs of stabilisation. The 10-year Treasury yield is down -3.3 bp at 4.664%, as the curve shifts lower. In the Eurozone, the short end is outperforming, but the 10-year Bund yield is also down -1.0 bp at 2.71%, while spreads are coming in.

• USDIndex has moved off the highs seen in the wake of yesterday’s data and is at 106.20. USDJPY is hovering below 150 as the yield gap with the US widened on hotter-than-expected inflation data.
• Yields: Yields cheapened further on the back of the poorly subscribed bond auction. The bearish action in Treasuries has given an excuse to take profits. Treasury yields rose to their highest levels of the week.
• Stocks: Wall Street slipped and closed with a -0.63% drop on the US100, -0.62% on the US500, and -0.51% on the US30.
• UKOIL is set for a weekly gain of over 2%, while USOIL is set to climb about 1% for the week as investors keep an eye on the Middle Eastern exports due to the Gaza crisis. USOIL up to $83.70.

Today: ECB President Lagarde, FOMC Member Harker & BOE Gov Bailey speak.

Interesting Mover: US500 (-0.62%) reversed in the upper part of the trend channel, touching both the 50- and the 100- DMA, which have bearishly crossed, indicating a return to 4100 lows.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 16th October 2023.

Market Update – October 16 – Stocks Sideways, Bonds Drift & Middle East in Focus.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock markets sold off across Asia, with the JPN225 underperforming and losing more than -2%. US futures are higher, as are European futures, as markets watch efforts to prevent a further escalation and widening of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Asian markets were still weighed down by heightened risk aversion, but European and US markets show signs of stabilisation. Treasury yields have backed up 5.8 bp to 4.67% and the 10-year Bund yield jumped 2.6 bp, after JGB rates climbed 1.2 bp as haven flows receded. Eurozone spreads are narrowing.

• USDIndex has declined to 106.54 but is currently on a pull back to 106.20. The Kiwi rose 0.71% to 0.5926.
• The ECB is expected to keep rates steady through the first half of 2024. According to the latest Bloomberg survey, the central bank won’t start cutting rates until the second half of next year, with the first cut seen in September, followed by another in October. Compared to the previous survey respondents have pushed out rate cut expectations, which ties in with recent ECB comments suggesting that the outlook may not become clearer until March.
• Stocks: The UK100 added 0.1%, FRA40 and GER40 both lost 0.1%. US500 and those tracking the tech-heavy US100 both advanced 0.2% ahead of the New York open. Tech stocks led declines in Europe’s Stoxx 600 index after Bloomberg reported that the US is considering further restrictions to curb China’s access to advanced semiconductors. Polish stocks jumped the most since May 2022 and the zloty rallied as a bloc of pro-European opposition parties appeared on track to unseat the nationalist government.
• USOIL steadied within $85.60- $86.75, as the US ratchets up efforts to prevent the crisis from becoming a full-blown, regional conflagration.
• Gold corrected to 1908 (PP), after it climbed 3.17% to $1990, the highest since mid-September as implied Fed funds futures repriced for about a 30% risk of another hike, after spiking briefly to 50/50 after hotter CPI.

Interesting Mover: BTCUSD (+2.11%) jumped to 27957, on USD pullback. Next resistance is at October’s upper swings, 28100 and 28500.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 17th October 2023.

Market Update – October 17 – Could Conflict be Contained?


The focus remained on the Middle East and the Israel-Hamas war. Attempts to contain the hostilities and prevent the conflict from escalating throughout the region provided some support for risk appetite to start the week. The VIX slipped to 17.45 after surging to 19.45 to end last week. Fed’s Harker says Fed should not be considering more rate increases. Expectations for more good earnings results also boosted Wall Street, as did some softening in the US Dollar, even as Treasury yields climbed.

New Zealand inflation slowed more than economists expected in Q3, adding to signs that the RBNZ has come to the end of its tightening cycle. The annual inflation rate fell to 5.6%, a 2-year low, from 6% in the second quarter, Statistics New Zealand said Tuesday in Wellington.

• Reduced demand for haven assets – Oil & Treasuries fall as efforts to ease conflict intensify with Biden’s visit in Israel. President Joe Biden will travel to Israel tomorrow, in a visit designed to signal US solidarity with its closest Middle East ally and help prevent the conflict from engulfing the region.
• Final Hours for Country Garden as it is on the brink of a possible offshore default. This could highlight the depth of the confidence crisis gripping the sector.
• USDIndex dipped to 105.95 and GBPUSD failed to cross 1.2200.
• Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson: A rally in the USA500 in the fourth quarter of 2023 “is more likely than not”.
• Stocks: Boosted by Fed Harker dovish comments, the AI euphoria and expectations that the FED will not raise interest rates further and speculation of a good earnings season.
• USOIL reversed to $85 and Gold dropped back to $1912 on the back of heightened risk aversion against the background of escalating tensions in the Middle East.
• BTCUSD settled at 28200. A brief 10% surge in Bitcoin yesterday gave traders a glimpse into the possible impact of a looming the US SEC decision on whether to allow exchange-traded funds investing directly in the token.
• Today: Earnings reports from Goldman Sachs & Bank of America. US Retail Sales and Canadian CPI.

Interesting Mover: GBPAUD (-0.56%) broke 1.9150, which coincides with breakout of ascending triangle and May-June Resistance. This could be a possible Head and Shoulder formation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 18th October 2023.

Market Update – October 18 – Data Fuels Higher-for-Longer Bets.


Asian equities followed US stocks lower after strong retail data. Treasury yields continued to shoot higher, reaching new cycle peaks. Data revived fear of an even higher Fed rate stance for an even longer period of time. Implied Fed funds futures climbed and priced in a 53% chance for a hike by the end of January. However, the market still shows only a small, less than 20% chance, for a move on November 1 since many policymakers have advocated a wait-and-see stance for now. China’s economy grew 4.9% in the third quarter. A largely positive report that confirms that China’s economy has bottomed out, even if the recovery may not be quite as strong as some had hoped.

UK inflation was higher than anticipated, against expectations for a slight deceleration in the annual rate. Core inflation decelerated to 6.1% y/y, the lowest rate since January, but still a tad higher than markets had expected.

• USDIndex has nudged down to 105.75 from a session high of 106.32.
• Stocks: NVIDIA closed at -4.68%, as the US is restricting the sale of chips that Nvidia designed specifically for the Chinese market, part of sweeping new updates to export curbs. Asian semiconductor stocks declined.
• USOIL broke $87 on renewed concerns in Middle East conflict.
• Gold rises to 4-week high, at 1942.70, as Israel-Hamas conflict drives demand for safe-haven assets. Israel’s military has bombarded Gaza with air strikes in anticipation of a widely expected ground invasion against Hamas.
• Today: US Building Permits & FOMC Waller & Harker Speeches.

Interesting Mover: UK100 retests the neckline of a possible inverse head and shoulder formation, at 7715-7740. A breakout could turn attention to the 7800 area.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 19th October 2023.

Market Update – October 19 – Stock markets pressured, as bond yields rise.


Stock markets have remained underwater through the Asian part of the session, and European as well as US futures are in the red, as markets eye developments in the Middle East. The Israel-Hamas war continued to shake the markets. The explosion at a Gaza hospital on Tuesday, and the failure of diplomatic efforts to bring all sides together for negotiations, added to the increasingly tense tone and the threat of a widening in the conflict.



Treasury yields have backed up to 4.958% and the 10-year Bund yield is eyeing the 3% mark, as oil prices remain at high levels. The Fed’s Williams said interest rates will have to stay at restrictive levels “for some time” and the higher for longer message, not just from the Fed, but the BoE and ECB as well, is adding to pressure on stocks and bonds.

• USDIndex has lifted to 106.6, the VIX jumped 8.4% to 19.38.
• Stocks: Wall Street was in decline from the open and tumbled sharply into the close. Poor earnings and/or guidance added to the selling. The US100 closed with a -1.62% loss, while the US500 was -1.34% lower, and the US30 off -0.98%. In spite of the risk-off flows, Treasuries failed to benefit due to worries over the strength in the economy keeping inflation elevated. There are also fiscal policy concerns with the massive, and increasing, deficit and debt.
• USOIL prices are off highs, after the US suspended some sanctions on Venezuelan output, but the front end WTI contract is still at $86.80 per barrel, Brent over $91 per barrel.
• Gold rose 1.38% to $1963, as escalating tensions in the Middle East have boosted haven flows today and the precious metal benefited, while Treasuries and EGBs pared losses.
• Today: Fed Powell speech, US Jobless Claims and Philly Fed.

Interesting Mover: EURAUD (+0.60%) breaking downchannel and inverse head and shoulder formation at 1.6650, indicating a potential return to 1.69 highs.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 23rd October 2023.

Market Update – October 23 – A suspiciously calm day.


Asian markets sold off after a weaker close on Wall Street on Friday. Mainland China bourses underperformed as investors remain dissatisfied with official support measures and the lack of further rate cuts. Futures are under pressure across Europe and the US, amid signs that war jitters are easing as investors watch diplomatic efforts to contain the Israel-Hamas conflict. The 10-year Treasury yield has backed up 5.1 bp to 4.97%, the German 10-year rate is up 2.9 bp and the 10-year JGB yield jumped 2.6 bp. Oil and gold declined this morning driven by concerns regarding the sustained period of elevated interest rates and tensions in the Middle East.

• USDIndex turns below 106, EURUSD extends to 1.0593. The VIX climbed to the highest since March and the banking stresses.
• Stocks: China’s tech gauge drifts to record lows since its inception more than three years ago, worn down by concerns over higher US rates’ impact on global liquidity and a weak export outlook. The US100 plunged -1.53% to 12,983, below 13k for the first time since May. The US30 was off -0.86%. A flight to quality boosted demand for Treasuries, especially after the dovish reading on Chair Powell’s comments.
• Earnings season ramps up this week, with a slew of big tech titans slated to report, i.e. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft.
• USOIL corrected to $86.80 per barrel and Gold recovered to $1981 as risk aversion recedes for now.
• BTCUSD saw its biggest weekly gain since June. Currently at 30540.

Interesting Mover: US500 (-1.53%) to 4236, breaking below the 200-day moving average to add to the sour tone, with immediate support levels at 4200 and 4130.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 24th October 2023.

Market Update – October 24.


The sell off in Treasuries abated in the later part of Monday as low prices attracted buyers. Stock markets are also looking somewhat more stable and most Chinese stock gauges improved after the country’s sovereign wealth fund bought exchange traded funds to boost prices. Stock futures are higher across Europe and the US, although the UK100 is struggling. Early data releases in Europe were far from stellar, with German consumer confidence falling again, Eurozone Composite PMI falling to a 35 month low and jobless claims rising in the UK. Bonds have continued to find buyers and the 10-year Treasury yield has corrected a further -5.0 bp to 4.80%, while the 10-year Bund yield is down -5.3 bp at 2.82%, after the 10-year JGB corrected -2.5 bp.

• USDIndex found some ground at 105.46, GBPUSD extended to 1.2287 well above PP and 1.22 lows.
• RBA Governor Michele Bullock: risks inflation would prove more stubborn than expected and that interest rates might have to rise further to bring it to heel.
• Stocks: Chinese stock gauges improved after the country’s sovereign wealth fund bought exchange traded funds to boost prices. Stock futures are slightly higher across Europe and the US, although the UK100 is struggling. The US500 remains though below the 200-day moving average.
• Oil & Gold face some near term selling pressure, as the subsequent drop in rates provide some support for Equities while the USDIndex slumped. The 5% yield level on the 10-year, the first time with that handle since 2007, helped stop the bleeding in the bond market.

Interesting Mover: BTCUSD 12% higher breaching April 2022 highs and 35K. Crypto linked stocks followed as well, as speculation about the possibility of a bitcoin ETF approval drove enthusiasm.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 25th October 2023.

Market Update – October 25 – Stocks in Red; Dollar recovers.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Investors cheered the approval of a trillion-yuan sovereign issue as a harbinger of stimulus, while the Chinese government unveiled new support plans that include issuing additional sovereign debt and lifting the budget deficit ratio to finance fresh measures. Hong Kong reversed a pandemic-increase in stock trade levies and Chief Executive John Lee also announced a plan to halve taxes on home purchases for residents as well as non-residents. That helped to boost property stocks, even as troubled Chinese developer Country Garden Holdings Co. was deemed to be in default on a dollar bond for the first time

• Stock markets got a boost from fresh stimulus measures for China. The Hang Seng has pared some of its early gains, but is still up 1.0%, while the CSI300 has lifted 0.6% and the JPN225 0.7%.
• European stocks: In the red today weighed by a flurry of bank results and a mixed batch of US Big Tech earnings ahead of the ECB decision tomorrow.
• Microsoft, Alphabet, and Visa reported their earnings, which indicated strong performance with revenue and net income growth in their respective quarters.
• Alphabet (-6% in after-hours) sales beat damped by cloud computing miss.
• Microsoft’s (+4% in after-hours) unexpected rebound in Azure cloud growth lifted shares.
• Snap Inc. also reported revenue growth but experienced operating and net losses in the same period.
• Santander net profit rose 20% on record-high interest rates.
• FED: PMIs kept a Fed rate hike through the January 31 FOMC decision on the table with a 40% probability.
• USDIndex: returned above 106, but held sideways.
• AUDUSD: Aussie Dollar jumped after hotter-than-expected inflation lifted rate hike forecasts for the RBA next month, which would come after four rate pauses.
• USOIL steadied today at key 4-month support trendline after a 3-day sharp decline, amid signs that the Israel-Hamas war will remain contained for the time being at least. $83 is a key hurdle, which could indicate a move to $80.
• Gold holds gains above $1970.
• Bitcoin is up 15% this week amid speculation that ETF applications from BlackRock and others will succeed and drive capital into the asset class.
• Today: Germany IFO business climate, BOC rate decision, US new home sales and IBM, Meta earnings.

Interesting Mover: USDCAD broken the descending trendline from the draw tops of 1.3977 and 1.3861.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets


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Date: 26th October 2023.

Market Update – October 26.

Stocks and bonds were routed midweek. Tech shares were slammed after poor earnings news from Alphabet knocked its shares down nearly -10%, spreading gloom across the sector. A surge in Treasury yields added to the selloff. Meanwhile, ongoing signs of the strength in the economy after a pop in new home sales did not help. Instead, it added to expectations that a big jump in GDP on Thursday will keep a Fed rate hike in the picture later in the year or early 2024. That and fears over other big headwinds ahead added to a negative feedback loop that growth will slow sharply next year, further hurting investor sentiment.

• Stock markets: The US100 crashed -2.43%, its worst slide since February. The US500 lost -1.43%, falling below the key 4200 level. The US30 slid -0.32%. The JPN225 underperformed and corrected -2.1, amid disappointing big tech earnings.
• Futures are lower across Europe and the US as markets wait for key central bank decisions, with the ECB kicking things off today.
• Alphabet shares logged their worst session since March 2020 overnight, dropping 9.5% as investors were disappointed with stalling growth in its cloud division.
• META fell 4% on Wednesday and another 3% in after-hours trade after publishing results showing better-than-expected revenue but a cloudy outlook, with expenses seen topping Wall Street estimates.
• USDJPY has broken back above the 150.00 mark, hitting 150.80 (highest since October) after finding courage to test the MoF again. The combination of expectations for more evidence of the strong US economy, including GDP, and the potential for another rate hike from the FOMC, are boosting the buck versus JPY, especially with still-fragile Japanese growth, along with rising expectations the BoJ will maintain its uber accommodative stance at its policy meeting next week.
• USDCAD rose to a high of 1.381 after the BOC’s announcement, the highest since early March and the SVB bank failure.
• USOIL recovered to $85 after a fall due to a rise in US crude stockpiles and a climb in US Dollar.
• Gold retests week’s resistance at $1988.
• Today: ECB meeting, US Durable Goods and Advanced GDP.

Interesting Mover: USDIndex got legs after the BoC left policy unchanged and downgraded its GDP forecasts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 27th October 2023.

Market Update – October 27 – Investors poised for weekly profits.


Stock market sentiment improved, and Asian equities bounced, alongside gains in European and US futures. Earnings reports helped tech stocks to stabilise, ahead of more key US data. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 3.2 bp at 4.88%, after strong GDP numbers yesterday. Eurozone bonds meanwhile continued to find buyers, after the ECB effectively confirmed yesterday that in the central scenario rates have peaked. The schedule for the re-investment of PEPP redemptions was also left untouched, which helped peripherals to outperform and spreads to come in. US economy expanded at its quickest pace in almost 2 years in the latest sign of the country’s economic resilience.

• Stock markets: Wall Street close in red for a 2nd session. The US100 has cratered -2.05%. The US500 has dropped -1.28% and is -3.2% lower, with the US30 down -0.77% today and -1.9%. Over the past 5 sessions the indexes are posting declines of -4.75%, -3.2%, and -1.9%, respectively. Today, stock sentiment improved.
• Asian shares rose after strong Q3 sales at Amazon helped drive a recovery in investor sentiment following weak results from other technology groups earlier in the week.
• Amazon (+5.36% after hours) sees best profits since 2021.
• Meta (+0.95% after hours) ad revenue (+23%) fuels blowout Q3, $11.6 billion in profits.
• Elon Musk just lost $28 billion as Tesla (+1.25% after hours) took a beating.
• USDIndex has lost altitude slightly to 106.36 after climbing to 106.894, just shy of the 107.000 level from October 3 that was the highest since late 2022.
• USDJPY is holding the 150.00 level, continuing to test the MoF after finance minister Suzuki warned that authorities were closely watching currency moves “with a sense of urgency.”
• EURUSD lost ground on the ECB’s stance, trading at 1.0544, though inside the day’s 1.0574 to 1.0524 range.
• USDCAD remains above at 1.3810 after the BoC’s announcement .
• GOLD flat but close to 1998 (more than 2-months highs).
• USOIL recovered to $85 after a fall due to a rise in US crude stockpiles and a climb in the US Dollar.

Today: US PCE deflator, personal consumption, University of Michigan sentiment (October), Exxon, Chevron earnings.



Interesting Mover: USDCHF broke descending channel and extends higher for a 4th day in a row.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 30th October 2023.

Market Update – October 30.


Stock markets struggled overnight. Mainland China bourses found buyers, but JPN225 and ASX declined, as markets watched developments in the Middle East. Risk sentiment improved during the start of the week as Israel seemed to be moving with more caution than anticipated, which helped to dampen concern about a widening of the conflict. Stock futures are higher across Europe and the US and the 10-year treasury yield has lifted 2.6 bp to 4.86%, with oil and gold also declining as haven flows ease. Treasuries were boosted also after the slowing in the PCE deflators underpinned expectations the FOMC is on hold. Short covering and a flight to safety extended the more bullish tone as Israel began its ground assault on Gaza.

• Stock markets slightly higher today after Wall Street saw the US30 drop -1.12% with a hefty -6.7% plunge in the energy complex. The US500 declined another -0.48%, with the latter now in correction territory, -10.3% below the July 31 peak. The US100 bounced 0.38%. For the 5 days, the US30, US500, and US100 are down -2.14%, -2.53%, and -2.62%, respectively.
• Morgan Stanley’s Wilson: ‘‘Chances of a fourth-quarter rally have fallen considerably”,“Narrowing breadth, cautious factor leadership, falling earnings revisions and fading consumer and business confidence tell a different story than the consensus, which sees a rally into year-end.”
• Amazon’s pop by 6.8% and Intel’s jump by 9.3% helped soften the blows from big drops in Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla. Ford stumbled 12.2%.
• JGB yields climbed to fresh 10-year peaks today & USDJPY corrected to 149.22, as investors weighed the chances of a possible policy tweak in the BOJ’s monetary policy decision tomorrow. BOJ is widely expected to keep its short-term rate target at -0.1% and that target for long-term rates around 0% as set under its YCC policy.
• USDIndex is at 106.50, down on Friday’s close, but within the previous day’s range.
• GOLD spiked to $2006.40 on the escalation of the war. Currently settled lower at $1990. It’s likely to continue benefiting should tensions increase, alongside the Swiss franc and short-dated US government bonds.
• USOIL lower at $83.70.

Today: Central bank meetings: FED, BOE and BOJ. Earnings: Apple, Airbnb, McDonald’s, Moderna and Eli Lilly & Co among the many reporting this week.

Interesting Mover: USDCHF broke descending channel and extends higher for a 4th day in a row.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 31st October 2023.

Market Update – October 31 – Stocks Down & Yen plummets.


Asian stock markets traded mixed, with China bourses underperforming after weaker than expected PMI reports that signal ongoing weakness, especially in the manufacturing sector. Treasuries meanwhile found buyers and the US 10-year rate is down -5.7 bp at 4.84%, while the 10-year Bund yield has dropped -3.3 bp to 2.79%. Stock futures are higher across Europe, but down in the US.

• China October PMIs missed expectations as factory orders contracts – CSI300 at -0.31%.
• USDJPY jumped to 150.24, after the Yen fell to 2-month lows as the BOJ made only minor changes to its policy settings, disappointing some in the market who had expected more. The central bank is keeping its cap on long-term yields at 1%, leaving its negative interest rate untouched and adding flexibility to its yield curve control.
• Financial stocks were the biggest winners, insurance and banking indexes rallying more than 2% each to lead gains among the 33 industry sectors. Higher long-term yields and a steeper yield curve improve the outlook for returns from lending and investing.
• Earnings beats from McDonald’s and SoFi provided support ahead of Apple and other key earnings this week
• USDIndex dipped to 105.85 from a peak of 106.704 after the Nikkei report. Currently settled at 106.10.
• Antipodeans, which are often used as a liquid proxy for the Yuan, were further pressured by Chinese data, i.e. AUDUSD dipped initially to 0.6340.
• GOLD & USOIL: Unwinding of some of Friday’s haven demand saw gold fall about -0.5% to $1990 per oz, with a USOIL slide to $81.50 (Trendline & 200-DMA).

Today: Canadian GDP, EU preliminary GDP and CPI and NZ labor data- Earnings: AMC, BP and Pfizer.



Interesting Mover: EURJPY (+1.05%) returns 5-day losses and keeps rising with attention turning to 162-162.40 (1998 highs & 2007-2008 highs).
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 6th November 2023.

Market Update – November 06 – The aftermaths of cooler jobs continue.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Last week’s market reactions underscore the risks associated with central banks discussing data dependence without clarifying their medium-term framework or how they expect policy to impact the real economy.

Both stocks and bonds experienced rallies, boosted by the Treasury’s smaller-than-anticipated increase in longer-term debt auctions. However, Treasury yields dove with an eye-popping speed. The move underpinned a massive rally. The spectacular drop in rates last week saw the 2- and 10-year maturities recover a lot of their losses in October. The catalysts for the reversal were the FOMC’s less than hawkish stance, the cooler jobs report, and the moderation in Treasury supply increases. Geopolitical risks added a haven bid too.

• FT reported: The markets are wrong to assume an economic slowdown and the peak of interest rates. “Higher for longer” for interest rates was always more of a media catchphrase than policy analysis. However, the Powell Federal Reserve may not start to reverse policy errors with rate cuts before the middle of next year, and reacting forcefully to every single data release between now and then is going to be exhausting.
• USDIndex tanked, however, falling to a low of 104.84 from the early high of 106.95.
• USDJPY at 149.50. BOJ Ueda indicated that policymakers might not have sufficient data by year-end to end negative interest rates, as they continue to monitor the possibility of a wage-inflation cycle.
• Stocks: Wall Street exploded higher on the drop in rates. For the week, the US100 was up 6.6%, with the US500 having its best week since November 2022. The US30 posted a 5.85%, gain, its best week since October 2022. The VIX was off -4.8% to 14.91. Asian equities rose today after weaker than expected US jobs data released last week eased concerns over rising interest rates.
• Ryanair sees record annual profit, first regular dividend as fares soar
• Shares in Chinese brokerages jumped after state media reported that the country’s securities regulator would support buyouts and mergers in the financial sector to help create investment banks.
• Gold and Oil were scuttled too. Gold fell to $ 1992.5 per oz, down from $2004.10, but was as soft as $1983.31. USOIL dropped to $80.10 per barrel, but finished with a -1.95% loss at $80.85 after trading as high as $83.6 overnight. Currently settled at $80.85.

Today: EU, France, Germany, Japan: S&P Global October services PMI, UK October construction PMI. Earnings: BioNTech Q3, Itochu H1, Ryanair H1.



Interesting Mover: ETHUSD (+3%) jumped this morning breaking 2-week range and extending to $1910 area.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 9th November 2023.

Market Update – November 09.


It was another mixed day in the markets as players awaited fresh directional signals, including comments from Chair Powell later today. However, a new narrative is starting to build, one of slowing growth, with a recessionary tilt in Europe. The ongoing chant from the FOMC and ECB and BoE officials that more tightening might be necessary is adding to the angst over economic growth, alongside an effort to push back against speculation of early rate cuts, although it is increasingly clear that in the central scenario rates have peaked.

Concurrently, investors have been encouraged by this week’s auctions, that they have found buyers. And demand for higher yields have helped underscore a curve flattening trade with longer dated Treasuries outperforming. Falling Treasury yields helped launch an explosive rebound in stocks and lifted US government bonds from 16-year lows!

• Asian stock markets lower on mixed signals of peak US rates and weak Chinese economy.
• China slipped back into consumer price index deflation in October, as data released showed persistently weak demand in the economy. The inflation data is likely to reinforce the weaker-than-expected PMI figures last week.
• 10-year Treasury yield falls below 4.5%.
• USDIndex holds gains above 105. EURUSD under pressure as Eurozone retail sales declined.
• Stocks: The US100 and US500 benefited further from the drop in yields. The US100 posted a marginal 0.08% gain, with the US500 up 0.10%. But those were sufficient to give the US100 a 9th straight winning session, and an 8th straight for the S&P. The Dow dipped -0.12%.
• SoftBank adds to shareholder pain with unexpected $6bn loss.
• UK chip designer Arm’s shares fall after disappointing revenue forecast.
• Disney tops profit estimates.
• AstraZeneca raises yearly guidance amid strong sales of oncology treatments.
• Oil slipped to $74.88, but is currently in correction mode. Further pressure was added after the EIA issued the new outlook after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended voluntary production cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day through December as demand concerns weigh. US total petroleum consumption is now expected to fall by 300,000 bpd to 20.1 million bpd this year, compared with an estimated gain of 100,000 bpd in the October forecast.
• Gold at $1949.
• Bitcoin trades past $36,500 on possible ETF investment approval.
• Today: BOE chief economist Huw Pill, Fed Chair Jerome Powell & Fed President Raphael Bostic and Richmond speeches & US initial jobless claims.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 10th November 2023.

Market Update – November 10 – Multi-day Win Streak Came To An End.


Wall Street’s multi-day win streak came to an abrupt end Thursday after one of the worst bond auctions on record sparked a sharp selloff in Treasuries, led by the long end, and reignited concerns over who will be buyers of US debt. Also weighing on the front end were comments from Fed Chair Powell and others who pushed back against expectations for rate cuts by June.



UK: GDP stagnated in the third quarter of the year. Data for the whole quarter flagged a -4.2% contraction in business activity, and a -2.0% q/q decline in gross fixed capital formation. On top of this, while September numbers look positive, with manufacturing and construction output, survey data suggest that this bounce is not going to last, and as the BoE has admitted as well, the short term outlook is negative.

Fed: Chair Powell stressed that the FOMC will not hesitate to tighten rates further if appropriate. The same message has been sent by every other policymaker in recent sessions. That has been a very consistent message from the Fed and the Chair, whether the markets want to believe it or not. But Powell also reiterated the Fed will continue to move “carefully.” He is not confident yet that the policy is restrictive enough to hit the 2% goal.

• USDIndex stabilised and nudged up to 105.70 as Treasury yields move higher. EURUSD has corrected to 1.0660 from highs over 1.07 and Cable corrected to 1.2227. USDJPY has continued to move higher and is currently at 151.35, as markets test intervention threats.
• Stocks: Stocks tumbled into the close to finish at lows. This broke the 9-day win streak on the US100 and the 8-day streak on the US500. Stock markets remained under water during the Asian hours as well. European futures are also in the red however US futures are already showing signs of stabilisation, as investors settle for signals that in the central scenario rates have peaked not just in the US.
• Oil slightly higher to 76 area but it is headed for a 3rd weekly drop.
• Gold reverted to 1955 after a recent rally yesterday to the 1970 area as bears have taken a swing to test the resistance at 1964. Central bank officials have been pushing back against expectations of early rate cuts and yields have lifted from recent lows. This is coupled with a stabilisation in the Dollar that has undermined the appeal of non-interest bearing bullion – at least for now.
• Today: ECB Lagarde & Michigan sentiment.

Interesting Mover: GBPNZD – Down channel identified at 09-Nov-21:30. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 2.0777 within the next 20 hours.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 13th November 2023.

Market Update – November 13 – Pivotal week ahead.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
It’s the day before a possible Government shutdown again, and a pretty pivotal week ahead for company reports and a round of significant inflation data. Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight. Wall Street closed with a strong rally last week, but with investors waiting for key US inflation numbers, sentiment was mixed.



Late Friday, Moody’s trimmed the outlook on the US credit rating to negative from stable. The factors behind the change included the view that downside risks to the country’s fiscal strength have increased and may no longer be fully offset by the sovereign’s unique credit strengths. It did not help that Congress is again battling to prevent a partial government shutdown. Meanwhile, Moody’s also affirmed the AAA rating, noting it expects the US to “retain its exceptional economic strength” and it suggested “further positive growth surprises over the medium term could at least slow the deterioration in debt affordability.”

• USDIndex held at 2-day bottom, at 105.60.
• USDJPY: Hit new 1 year high, at 151.80 amid wider weakness in the Yen.
• Japanese wholesale inflation slowed below 1% for the first time in just over 2-1/2-years in October, a sign that cost push pressures that had been driving up prices for a wide range of goods were starting to fade. The slowdown in commodity-led inflation is in line with the Bank of Japan’s projections, and puts the spotlight on whether wages and household spending would increase enough to generate a demand-driven rise in consumer prices.
• Stocks: The Hang Seng outperformed, and European futures are also making headway, while US futures are in the red. Bonds declined across Asia, but Treasuries have pared overnight losses, and the US 10-year rate is down -1.2 bp at 4.64%, while the German 10-year yield is up 0.4 bp, and the Gilt yield down -0.1 bp.
• Oil gapped down on the open, reversing partial gains from Friday’s rally, but holds above $76. Any further renewed concerns over waning demand in the United States and China could dent market sentiment.
• Gold remains below $1,950 an ounce but is seeing a positive start to the week as investors react to Moody’s negative outlook on US debt but also as focus turns on US inflation for more cues on the Fed outlook.
• Palladium hovering near 5-year lows.
  

Interesting Mover: CADJPY – Rising Wedge identified. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 110.5324 within the next 3 days. Supported by Upward sloping Moving Average.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 14th November 2023.

Market Update – November 14.


Stock markets are treading water in Europe, after a largely higher close across Asia. The ASX gained 0.8%, the Nikkei 0.3%, while China bourses traded mixed. In Europe GER40 and UK100 are up 0.1% and down -0.1% respectively, while US futures are posting slight gains, as markets wait for the key US inflation report later today.The DXY dollar index has traded in a relatively narrow range so far and is at 105.674.

• Yen’s quick recovery from 151.91 on Monday probably reflected positioning in the options market
• UK wage growth remains high. Hopes that an easing labour market will limit upward pressure on wages were one of the reasons the BoE has stopped the tightening cycle, but today’s round of data will give those who voted for another hike something to argue with.
• USDJPY – 151.60 – Yen traders brace for risk of deeper drop on US Inflation – 33-year high?
• Treasury Yellen ”Beijing’s heavy financial support for certain industries could pose a threat to other nations” – ” downside risk to the chinese economic outlook that could affect . . . many Apec economies”
• Stocks have recovered from opening losses, with small gains registered on the US500 and US30. The former broke 4-month down channel to the upside.
• Asian & EU equities crept higher – GER40 +0.14%, JPN225 +0.34%.
• Treasuries have found a bid with yields a couple of basis points
• USOIL pick to 78.35 post an OPEC report stating Demand is robust, and “overblown negative sentiment” – The American Automobile Association said the US Thanksgiving travel period will be the busiest since 2019.
• Gold steady at 1945 after yesterday’s rally
• TODAY: German ZEW, IEA report, US CPI. Earnings: Home Depot today, Cisco Systems, Target on Wednesday, then Alibaba Group Holding
  BABA and Walmart report on Thursday.
• US CPI preview: Headline inflation fell to 3.3% in October, down from 3.7 % in September.

Biggest Mover: GBPUSD breached 1.2300 – GBP responded strongly post UK jobs data – impressive figures – employment rose (+54K), average weekly earnings up and revised higher.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 15th November 2023.

Market Update - November 15 - Technicals & FOMO adding to the moves.


A strong close on Wall Street was followed by a broad rally across Asian markets. An unexpected slowdown in US inflation boosted bets that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, which brought down yields and benefited equity markets. UK inflation numbers this morning also came in a tad below market consensus, which put pressure on the Pound as investors upped bets that the BoE is also done hiking rates. The markets also brought forward the timing of rate cuts with an 88% probability of a 25 bp easing in May, and 50 bps priced in by July with 100 bps in cuts in 2024. Short covering, FOMO, and the break of technicals added to the gains. The belly of the Treasury curve outperformed on the Fed implications.

• US House voted for a short term funding bill, probably averting a partial government shutdown on Saturday (336 to 95).
• UK: CPI fell to 4.6% y/y from 6.7% y/y in the previous month. It was the lowest since October 2021 and less than half the recent peak of 11.1% y/y in October 2022. Output as well as input prices are already creeping up again and headline numbers for consumer prices remain far too high for the BoE’s liking.
• China: Data was mixed but mostly disappointing, reflecting ongoing sluggish to weak activity heading into the end of the year. Fixed property investment dropped to a -9.3% y/y rate, extending the -9.1% pace of contraction in September. It is disappointing but not surprising given the deepening troubles in that sector. It is the fastest pace of contraction since the -10.0% y/y in December. Residential property sales fell, new property construction & fixed asset investment were down.
• PBoC left its 1-year median lending rate unchanged at 2.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting. The Bank offered 1.45 tln yuan ($200 bln) in cash, the largest net injection since December 2016 as officials try to counter the weakness from the beleaguered property sector.
• EURUSD has soared 2 figures to 1.088, the best since August. It was helped earlier by a better than expected German ZEW investor confidence report.
• USDJPY slumped to 150.25 from the day’s peak of 151.78. It’s been above 150.00 since November 6 and may be able to hold the line there as the BoJ still shows little inclination of normalizing policy this year.
• Stocks surged with the US100 jumping 2.37%, while the US500 climbed 1.9 and the US30 surged 1.43%. Strength was broadbased with every S&P sector closing in the green.
• USoil steadied and Gold edged higher to $1971.
• TODAY: US Retail Sales & PPI.

Interesting Mover: USDIndex plunged the most in a year, dropping 2 big figures intraday to a low of 103.81 before closing at 104.05. Next support is at 102.7-103. area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 17th November 2023.

Market Update – November 17.


Stock markets struggled, and the Hang Seng in particular remained under pressure amid lingering concern over China’s growth outlook and a slump in Alibaba Group Hlds. as the company scrapped a spinoff of its cloud business due to US chip export restrictions.

European futures as well as most US futures are also finding buyers amid growing conviction that central bank rates have peaked in the US as well as Europe, which leaves markets looking for the timing of the first rate cut. Bonds are benefiting and yields continue to trend lower. European futures as well as most US futures are also finding buyers amid growing conviction that central bank rates have peaked in the US as well as Europe, which leaves markets looking for the timing of the first rate cut.

• US data once again, helped treasuries and add to the bullish sentiment that has prevailed most of the month.
• US Dollar slid higher to 104.36, up from recent lows, but still heading for a weekly loss, while Yields down as markets price in that Fed done with hiking.
• Euro strengthens after Tuesday’s significant 1.69% surge. Sterling (-0.23%) dive to 1.2375 post an unexpected decline in UK retail sales.
• AUDUSD & NZDUSD down for a 2nd consecutive day.
• Stocks: The JPN225 managed to dodge the trend and the wider MSCI Asia Pacific Index is still heading for a solid weekly gain. The US500 up +0.15%, US30 slipped -0.13% and the US100 0.07% higher.
• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s (-9%) market value has slumped to only about half that of rival Tencent Holdings Ltd , as company had cancelled plans to spin off its cloud computing unit and paused a push to list its grocery chain.
• Walmart (-8% ) plunging, even after in-line earnings, as more cautionary outlook with D-word (deflation) rattling investors.
• Energy: USOil drop nearly 5% s below key $73 support level, leaving oil on course for a fourth weekly correction.
• Metals: XAUUSD spiked to 1988, set for a strong weekly close.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.