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Suggestion FXTM Daily Market Analysis

Discussion in 'Berita dan Analisa Fundamental' started by FXTM ForexTime, 10 Aug 2016.

  1. FXTM ForexTime

    FXTM ForexTime Member

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    Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

    UK poll results lift cable


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    The UK has been most of the talk today, as Theresa May continues to talk up Brexit in the face of looming UK elections. Both sides have thus far presented some of the arguments, but there is still a large amount of the unknown which is causing issues for the market and politicians as well. Some of the negative economic costs for leaving the free-market are starting to weight on the currency despite the resurgence. And with every whisper about it out of Brussels we will continue to see the cable jumping to the tune of the Euro-zone, as the UK looks to head to the negotiating table and get a deal that will provide some benefit despite the steps that are being taken. One gleaming hope for cable traders is that recent polls have shown Theresa May as being in a comfortable lead still and this has lead in turn to some bullish sentiment in the market thus far - despite all the negative talk.

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    For the cable bulls there is two key levels of resistance slowing them down at this stage, as 1.2861 and 1.3042 continue to be major bearish points. Support can be also found around 1.2743 but for the bulls, the key here as if we do see the Tories continuing to dominate polls in the coming week, then we will see further bullish movements and targeting of key resistance levels. The question will be, how high can we go and how long until Brexit takes its toll again.

    Gold has been an interesting play in the market as of late. With equity markets lifting higher, it's unusual to see gold move in the same direction, but in this instance that is exactly what we are seeing. It's quite clear that parts of the market are hedging quite hard, while the bulls in other areas believe the rally will continue. Who is going to be wrong is impossible to tell, but there is certainly a lot of volatility on the horizon over the next four years with a Trump government. For me, what is interesting to see for gold movements, is that the bulls have started to slow down as they approach the long term trend line - so it will be interesting to see if they respect the bearish nature of it, or try and push through.

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    When it comes to key support levels in the event that the trend line does hold, I would expect to see it drop to 1256.35, with further potential to drop even lower to 1227.00 if the bears can truly take hold of the gold market. The 20 day moving average between the two is also one to watch as gold has a habit of using it as dynamic support and resistance on the daily chart.



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    Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

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  2. FXTM ForexTime

    FXTM ForexTime Member

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    Gold set to take center stage

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    The markets have been quite interesting over the last 24 hours as the middle east has seen an alliance between Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Qatar and it's claims of funding terrorism. This has seen tensions rise in this volatile part of the world and markets have started to get that worried again as a result; no surprise was the fact that commodities as a result have jumped. Further adding pressure to this is the ongoing US political issues which keep arising over Trump and his handling of the FBI and Department of Justice, all of which are likely to drag on for some time. One of the key movers in all of this thus far has been Gold which is starting to look very interesting as a result.

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    The major reason gold has become so appetising to traders out there, is the recent technical movements it has been under. Traders will be aware of the long term bearish trend line that has been in play for some time on the daily. Movements today have seen the new candle jump above that level and we could see either a sharp movement higher with a breakout or a pushback through and below the trend line. One other possibility, with some of the recent low volatility, is the market may look to treat it as support and look to hold the ground it has gained. In the event we do see gold look to move higher I would expect 1292 and 1307 to be likely candidates for strong resistance, with the 1300 level being a strong psychological level for gold to cross.

    The Australian dollar has shown some strong volatility with the market opening as company operating profits lifted 6.0 q/q and ANZ Job Advertisements m/m were up 0.4% which was stronger than many had expected. Recently markets have been hammering the AUD as the economy has been under pressure, so traders were positive about the results and the expectation that further news may be positive in the coming week with GDP on the horizon and also the all important Rate Statement due out today. Where some will certainly be looking for some positive words and expectations around when we could potentially see further rate rises.

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    For the AUDUSD moving across the charts, the bears have been in control for some time now. But recently we have seen some strong support at 0.7343 and a resurgence in the AUDUSD. This in part I feel has been caused by USD weakness more than anything else, but the positive Aussie economic spin is now pushing it higher and the recent touch of resistance at 0.7498 was not a strong pullback. Further movements higher could be on the cards as a result, and I would be watching that level closely to see if traders make another run and try and get to resistance at 0.7568.





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    Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

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  3. FXTM ForexTime

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    The U.S. Dollar moving in tight range, what to expect from the Fed?

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    Four major central banks are meeting this week: the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and Bank of Japan. The Fed is the only central bank poised to hike rates for the second time this year; meanwhile, all other central banks will remain on a standstill.

    Traders are expecting a 100% chance of a rate increase according to CME’s Fedwatch tool, so another 25-basis points hike seems a done deal, but whether the U.S. dollar moves higher or lower after the announcement on Wednesday depends on a couple of factors.

    Economic Outlook

    Despite unemployment rate falling to a 16-year low, U.S. job growth slowed in May and the gains in April and March were revised lower. However, the three-month average is still above 120,000 jobs which is sufficient to keep up with the working-age population growth, so not too much to worry about. Interestingly the tight labor market is still not accelerating wage growth, meaning the Fed will not be forced to tighten aggressively, and the long run U.S. yields are likely to remain under pressure. Consumer prices and retail sales are due to be released tomorrow before the announcement, and although it won’t affect the decision, these figures will impact the timing of the following rate hikes. The Fed’s quarterly projections on growth, unemployment, and inflation will be released along with the statement on Wednesday, so markets will closely monitor any changes in the projections.

    Guidance

    The dots on the dot plot are unlikely to change much. The previous chart showed two more rate hikes in 2017, with nothing significant occurring to alter this view. We’ll be left deciphering Janet Yellen’s tone to determine whether a rate hike will be considered a dovish or hawkish hike. Another key element that’s expected to move the U.S. dollar is any signs of when and how the Fed will start reducing the $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Selling assets on its balance sheet will provide a much stronger signal than just choosing not to reinvest the proceeds of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.

    Although the Fed is the only major central bank tightening monetary policy, the Greenback had been in a downtrend since the beginning of the year and fell below post-election levels. This explains that monetary policy, although having substantial influence on currencies’ direction, is still one of many factors. If in the long run U.S. treasuries remain under pressure, it means investors do not believe that inflation is returning, and more importantly, it’s a clear signal that market participants are growing more skeptical towards the reflation trade, hence keeping the U.S. dollar under pressure.



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    Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

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  4. FXTM ForexTime

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    Oil nears key levels

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    Oil continues to struggle on the charts as last week's expectation for oil failed to show any real signs that there was a drain on the US oil inventories. While there was at least some drain on the inventories of -1.66M the expectation of a drop to -2.74M led many to continue to be bearish on oil markets. This has also been further pushed by recent developments in the US market, namely shale continuing to produce a large surplus of oil for the US economy despite the fact many wrote it off after the price drops. OPEC as well has struggled to reign in prices as the market sees it as less of a threat now days given the move to renewables and also the fact that economies are not consuming oil at any great speed anymore.

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    For oil markets the bears are looking very much in control. Most pull-backs we have seen thus far on the daily chart instead look more like unwinding in the marketplace and traders looking to take profit. What is also very clear is that the trend is strong and does not look like it has run of steam and support at 44.01 is looking very close. Further support at 43.10 is a very strong level and could be the line in the sand that traders are looking to hit before we see any bulls come back into the market. In the event we do see them swing back in (and they will)expectations for resistance can be found at 45.80 and 47.75. In the event the market does finally turn and we see a strong bullish run in oil I would also be aware of the long term trend line on the daily chart which will be a hard ask in present times.

    The Australian economy is not having a good day to day, with Moody's downgrading it's banking sector, sighting weakness in the local economy and over supply in iron ore at present to the Chinese market. Last week's Westpac consumer sentiment report also showed strong weakness in the Australian economy at -1.8%. And even while unemployment may have shifted lower to 5.5%, the jitters are certainly still there for any Aussie bulls left in the market. One thing is clear is that the market will be heavily focused on the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes which are due out shortly.

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    Traders so far have struggled to break through at resistance at 0.7622, and all daily candles looking to move higher have started to look weaker and weaker. If the AUDUSD can move higher, then a next level target at 0.7677 would be ideal. If the market does look to push lower then strong levels of support can be found at 0.7556 and 0.7502. I would also look to focus on the 20 day moving average as potential, given that the market has looked to use it as dynamic support/resistance previously as well.



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    Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

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  5. FXTM ForexTime

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    Gold under pressure as equities & yields rally

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    Equity investors entered the third quarter with an optimistic attitude. Despite the low trading volumes and shortened U.S. trading session, stocks across Europe and the U.S. posted considerable gains sending the Dow Jones industrial average to a new record high with the financial and energy sectors taking the lead. Data released on Monday supported the appetite to risk as factories in the Eurozone and the U.S. surprised to the upside. The U.S. manufacturing index rose to 57.8 from 54.9 in May, the strongest expansion since August 2014. Similarly, IHS Markit’s Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone rose to 57.4, the highest since April 2011.



    The positive data sent the yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds to highest levels since mid-May, and on the shorter end, 2-year Treasury Notes mainly influenced by monetary policy actions rose to highest levels since the global financial crisis. This move convinced the dollar bulls to return after investors dumped the U.S. currency for four straight months. Whether the spike in the U.S. dollar is meant to resume or just a dead cat bounce depends on how fast other central banks across advanced economies converge into normalization, but on the shorter run, Wednesday’s FOMC’s minutes and Friday's jobs report will be the prime catalyst. Currency markets are trading in a very narrow range early Tuesday, and I expect traders to remain on the sidelines until the U.S. return from the Independence holiday on Wednesday.



    Gold was the biggest story yesterday. The yellow metal has lost its shine posting its biggest one-day fall in almost 8-months. The dollar’s strength may have contributed to the selling pressures, but I think it was only a minor factor. Many investors believe that the bull bond market has come to an end as central bankers signaled borrowing costs are going up, which going forward will be the major factor impacting precious metals. Breaking below the 200-days moving average also attracted bears to drag prices lower, with the immediate support now seen at $1,213.80 (May’s low). However, if Beijing-Washington tensions escalated after a $1.4 billion U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and sending a navy missile destroyer close Triton Island in the South China Sea, investors will always return to gold for protection from political risks. Today’s launch of a ballistic missile from North Korea also added to the complications of China-U.S. relations, but it seems markets did not take it as a serious threat. Overall, macroeconomic fundamentals are indicating lower gold price, while geopolitical risks are keeping the Bulls on standby.




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    Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

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  6. FXTM ForexTime

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    The week ahead: Draghi’s turn to drag the Euro?


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    Last week the greenback was the biggest loser among all major currencies. The dollar index slipped to a 10-month low, while the Euro, the Pound, the Lonnie, and the Aussie all posted new 2017 highs.

    The dollar has been falling since the beginning of 2017 despite the two rate hikes which occurred in March and June, and the many hawkish comments from FOMC members. Part of the blame falls upon the delay of President Trump’s economic agenda. However, most recently it was the poor economic data that led investors to question the trajectory and speed of interest rates hikes.

    Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday did not help the dollar either. She did not seem confident that inflation is on the right path and Friday’s flat consumer price index raised concerns that the Fed may be done with hiking rates this year. U.S. retail sales figures added salt to the wound after recording the biggest drop in more than a year in May falling by 0.3%. The sluggishness in consumer spending, wage growth and inflation will likely to worry Fed officials. Furthermore, if the weakness persists in the next couple of month, it will prove that the slowdown in the economy is not due to transitory factors but probably structural problems. Until data takes a U-turn, dollar bulls will remain reluctant to jump in and the dollar weakness may resume in Q3.

    Next week investors will shift their focus to the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. It has been almost three weeks since Mr. Draghi said, “Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones.” His confidence and bullish assessment of the euro zone recovery sent the Euro above 1.13 and despite the ECB officials attempts to dampen investors’ expectations over tightening policy the Euro still appreciated by more than 2.5% since June 27.

    I think Mario Draghi will choose his words more carefully when the ECB meets on Thursday. The last thing he wants is a strong Euro and tightened financial conditions for now. Since no changes are expected on current monetary policy the tweaks in the statement and Draghi’s tone are all what matters to traders. It is a complicated process to start normalizing policy without disrupting markets and so while the ECB wants to prepare investors for gradual wind-down of asset purchases, policy makers are likely to hint that rate hikes will remain low for a prolonged period. However, I prefer buying the Euro on dips then selling on rallies with end year target around 1.18.

    The dollar’s weakness drove Sterling to a 10-month high to trade above 1.31 for the first time this year. The pound also found support from BoE’s Ian McCafferty who said the central bank should consider unwinding its 435-billion-pound quantitative easing program earlier than planned and he’s looking to vote for a rate rise again in August. It seems that monetary policy is having more weight than the Brexit talks and if Tuesday’s inflation figures from the U.K. surprised to the upside, expect GBP to continue rallying. However, traders should also keep a close eye on Brexit negotiations which are going to resume on Monday.

    China’s GDP release on Monday will be monitored very closely by Aussie traders. Markets are expecting a 1.7% rise in Q2 from 1.3% in Q1. The RBA minutes are scheduled for release on Tuesday followed by the employment report on Thursday. It requires another set of positive reports to further widen the differentials in bond yields; however, without a shift in monetary policy stance the Aussie gains are likely to be limited.



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    Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

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  7. FXTM ForexTime

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    Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

    Keputusan suku bunga Bank Indonesia menarik perhatian


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    Nuansa antisipasi begitu terasa di pasar Indonesia menjelang sejumlah rilis ekonomi penting pada hari Kamis yang berpotensi menciptakan volatilitas. Risiko peristiwa utama adalah keputusan suku bunga yang diperkirakan tidak berubah di 4.75% di bulan Juli karena Bank Indonesia terus mempelajari risiko yang dibawa oleh kebijakan moneter AS. Meskipun kondisi ekonomi di Indonesia menunjukkan peningkatan pada enam bulan pertama tahun 2017, namun BI akan terus memantau situasi ekonomi sebelum meningkatkan suku bunga sebelum akhir tahun. Perhatian juga akan tertuju pada data investasi asing langsung Q2 untuk melihat apakah peningkatan peringkat Indonesia menjadi layak investasi oleh S&P memengaruhi investasi asing langsung secara positif.

    Dolar terdesak, Euro bulls beraksi

    Dolar AS mengalami pukulan hebat pada hari Selasa karena laporan bahwa anggota dewan Partai Republik gagal mengesahkan revisi undang-undang kesehatan sehingga memicu kekhawatiran terhadap kemampuan Trump untuk mengimplementasikan pemotongan pajak dan belanja infrastruktur. Sentimen sudah semakin bearish terhadap Dolar setelah rilis data inflasi AS yang lemah pekan lalu. Para penjual segera mengeksploitasi kemunduran agenda domestik Trump untuk semakin menyerang harga. Dolar menampilkan sensitivitas terhadap spekulasi kebijakan moneter dan probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga sebesar 25 bps di bulan Desember telah merosot menjadi 43% menurut CME FedWatch Tool sehingga mata uang AS ini berpotensi semakin melemah.

    Kalender ekonomi AS relatif sepi hari ini. Hanya ada rilis data izin pembangunan dan pembangunan hunian baru AS dalam agenda, sehingga aksi harga sepertinya akan lebih menentukan arah perdagangan Indeks Dolar. Trader teknikal mungkin akan tertarik untuk memanfaatkan pantulan teknikal di kerangka waktu harian untuk semakin menekan Indeks Dolar. Breakdown dan penutupan harian di bawah 94.60 dapat menyebabkan penurunan lebih lanjut menuju 94.00.

    Euro bulls menunggu Draghi

    Risiko peristiwa utama untuk Euro di hari Kamis adalah rapat ECB yang diperkirakan tidak akan mengubah kebijakan moneter di bulan Juli. Investor akan sangat memperhatikan rapat dan konferensi pers ini untuk mencari isyarat apakah ECB akan mengumumkan rencana untuk mengurangi program pembelian obligasi di bulan September. Pidato bernada optimis dari Gubernur ECB Mario Draghi di Sintra memicu spekulasi pengurangan program pelonggaran kuantitatif (QE) dan juga berperan dalam reli Euro saat ini, sehingga Draghi akan sangat berhati-hati dalam mengeluarkan pernyataan di hari Kamis. Walaupun kondisi ekonomi Eropa semakin stabil, inflasi masih jauh dari target 2% dan akan sangat menarik untuk mendengar pendapat Draghi tentang hal ini. Walaupun faktor fundamental makro semakin membaik dan tidak adanya risiko politik di Eropa sangat mendukung kurs Euro, bullsmungkin memerlukan inspirasi tambahan berupa ekspektasi pengurangan QE. Pertanyaannya apakah Draghi akan memberi apa yang diharapkan bulls atau justru mengecewakan.

    Dari sudut pandang teknikal, EURUSD sangat bullish di grafik harian. Breakout dan penutupan harian di atas 1.1500 dapat membuka jalan untuk peningkatan lebih lanjut menuju 1.1615.

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    Sorotan Komoditas - Minyak Mentah WTI

    Harga minyak mentah WTI semakin melemah di hari Selasa setelah API melaporkan peningkatan persediaan AS sebesar 1.63 juta barel pekan lalu. Walaupun harga bergerak menuju $46.55 pada sesi perdagangan hari Rabu, namun alasannya sama sekali bukan perubahan sentimen melainkan aksi ambil untung karena sentimen masih tetap bearish. Laporan bahwa Ekuador secara terbuka menyatakan tidak akan mematuhi komitmen pemangkasan produksi OPEC mengancam kesepakatan produksi kartel ini, dan kekhawatiran terjadinya efek domino mengekspos harga minyak pada risiko penurunan lebih lanjut. Bias terhadap minyak tetap bearish dan harga minyak berpotensi semakin melemah apabila masalah oversuplai mengikis ketertarikan investor terhadap komoditas ini. Perhatian akan tertuju pada laporan EIA AS hari ini yang dapat memperburuk masalah minyak apabila persediaan minyak mentah meningkat.


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    Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

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