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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Pound rallies on divorce bill rumours





It's been a crazy day on the markets and the GBPUSD has been a clear winner when it comes to movements today as the Market has reacted positively to the so called 'Divorce Bill' from the EU that Britain is meant to pay. So far people are expectong the figure to come in around 50-60 billion pounds that would be paid out over 40 years. Obviously, this is a large number for any sovereign nation, but it enables Britain to plow forth in its so called negotiations. The market is now looking for the next steps for the UK economy, as it expect to see some sort of trade negotiations come out of all of this. I do think that it might be a bit of a while off that we do see something realistic, the fact being that a) the UK has no strong leg to stand on, and b) it's always a long road to what people expect will be a result. Either way the volatility in the GBPUSD is likely to continue into the near future especially with the current pace of news and politics involved in Brexit.



On the charts it's clear to see that the bulls are back into the market and are climbing higher. Yesterday we were talking about the 1.33 levels, and today we are in the 1.34 levels which shows the market is keen on these talks. After touching resistance at 1.3438 the market has pulled back to take a breather, but the real key level is to be found at 1.3588 which is where bullish traders will be looking to aim in this market. In the even the bears do regain control and look to push it lower then support at 1.3339 is likely to be a prime candidate for support as well as 1.3256. Traders should also be aware of the previous trend line which continues to be an obstacle for any bears in the current market.

The US also continued its stellar run today with US pending home sales m/m lifting by 3.5% (1% exp) once again showcasing the strength in the USD. On top of the traders were also somewhat bullish about the first round of the senate tax review of the Trump tax bill, which is likely to boost the US economy - even though running a deficit for a bit. One of the big losers for this has been the commodity currencies which have been bearish against the USD with all this support.



For me the NZDUSD continues to be one of those currencies that will struggle with a resurgent USD in the current market climate. So far all the candles have shown exhaustion by bulls in the market as the NZDUSD dipped under resistance at 0.6891. The market is now looking to extend further lower to 0.6834 and 0.6802 on the charts, as the market looks to push it back into the red. For me the bulls are going to be a real threat until the USD gives up some ground as the NZ economy is still struggling in the interim while it figures out a new government.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Market waits on Bank of Canada




With a US tax bill and a Brexit currently flying around in the markets it's hard not to get lost on the bigger picture for other countries as well. However, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is one that we should all be paying attention to as in the next 24 hours they will have their monthly interest rate decision, as well as follow up conference to the market. Now a interest rate is not priced in at present - in fact the odds are very low, but the BoC has a habit of surprising markets and the recent employment figures were very positive adding further weight to the potential for a rise. I don't anticipate we will see a surprise interest rate jump, however the words that will be used will be vital for the market when it comes to pricing in the next interest rate rise and of course are likely to have a big impact on the Canadian dollar. It's not always about oil for the Canadian economy, but one thing is clear there is certainly more to offer on the trading calendar than oil updates.



So far the USDCAD has been a big mover and has held up nicely on the charts in preparation for the upcoming announcement. So far the USD has been losing ground against the CAD after traders were quick to attack on USD weakness and the strong jobs report. Any movements higher on the USDCAD were likely to struggle regardless with resistance at 1.2759 and 1.2921, but also with the 200 day moving average starting to ebb lower and showing a pattern of being respected strongly by the USDCAD. Movements lower are likely to find support at 1.2628 and 1.2516 in the current market, but I would also watch out for the oil figures as well, as a strong drawdown would put further bearish pressure on the USDCAD.

One of the key metal markets which has been moving sharply lower recently has been silver which has been reacting sharply to the boost in equities. There has been talk recently that metals could potentially be replaced by Bitcoin and the likes, but I don't believe they represent a tangible hedge like precious metals do in the current environment. What is clear that the US economy booming is starting to have a negative effect on the price of silver and the market is starting to shift lower as a response.



I've always been a fan of silver and the trend is looking quite strong on the charts so far for the bears. Support has held up nicely at 15.996, with the potential to move event further lower to 15.556. Resistance is currently high in 16 dollar region at 16.546 and 16.863 at this stage. All in all though the bearish trend is strong and could continue in the current environment if we don't see any large hiccups.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

CAD in focus on dovish comments




The Canadian dollar was back in focus today as the market was looking for hawkish signs from the Bank of Canada, on the back of the recent interest rate statement. The interest rate was kept at 1% however, and the market was caught off guard by the dovish comments made by the BoC. While the economy has been adding new jobs and Fridays figures were a testament to that (+441,400), the BoC is still concerned about the NAFTA negotiations that are ongoing, as well as recent housing market developments. This came as a shock for a lot of market pundits, but more important it forced forecasts further out for future rate rises, while before the market was betting heavily on the BoC to come through and cause further positive betting on rate rises.



The USDCAD was quick to jump on the back of the news out from the BoC, as USD bulls rushed away with all the recent gains and pushed through resistance at 1.2759. Further levels higher can be found at 1.2921 with the potential for any higher gains to the 200 day moving average - which would be very hard to push through. If the market does turn around and head back south then support at 1.2628 and 1.2516 are likely to be the prime candidates for bearish traders, with the area between these two levels likely to act as a key selling point on the market.

Crude has been one of those funny players in the market as of late with a bullish rise, which has been purely on the back of OPEC extending production cuts. Now for many this comes as no surprise as the oil market did need to stabilise but today's fall caught many off guard given that the drawdown came in stronger than expected at -5.61M (-2.5M exp). The reason for this was refined oil products with gasoline showing an increase to 6.8M barrels, beating market expectations and causing the oil market to sell-off. Selling pressure is common when you have a build up of refined products as the market might start to think it's flagging or peaked already.



Oil now finds itself in a weird place at present as the recent rise has struck strong resistance at 59.08 in this market, and the fall today hit the current old trend line which the market is respecting before taking a pause and stopping all together. I'm not sure if there is further potential falls on the cards given the bulls have been so strong, and this could be an excuse to unwind. However, if the trend line did break then support could be found at 55.14. If oil does indeed jump back higher, then for me resistance at 57.38 and 59.08 are the key levels traders will look to target. Expectations are though that 59.08 will be the level to beat currently.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Bitcoin future trading kicks off; Investors awaiting central banks decisions




Trading bitcoins entered a new phase today, after Chicago’s CBOE listed the first futures contract on the cryptocurrency. The initial reaction was beyond expectations with the futures contract climbing more than 20% and triggering two trading halts. CBOE’s website experienced unprecedented traffic which may well have sent a new benchmark, the frenetic activity lead to delays and outages. So far, it seems professional investors aren’t willing to bet against the bitcoin, despite the many warnings of a bubble that will burst soon. Many traders aren’t even interested in the price direction, but the listing of the futures contract on CBOE and later next week on the CME, will provide them an arbitrage trading opportunity due to the vast pricing differences. However, the arbitrage trading will lead to improved price efficiency and probably less volatility. After volatility settles down, the focus will return to the price direction.

Central Banks Meetings

Currency markets were trading in tight ranges early Monday with the dollar slightly weaker against its major peers. Expectations of the Fed hiking rates on Wednesday, stands at 90.2% according to CME’s Fedwatch tool which means the disappointment in wage growth won’t shift the needle for US monetary policy. However, it isn’t the rate hike that will move the dollar on Wednesday, it’s the tone, economic projections and the dot plot. Given that we’re getting closer to a deal on tax reforms, the Fed might become slightly more hawkish. It remains to be seen whether this will shift up the Fed’s dots for future interest rate expectations.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England are also meeting this week. Despite no substantive monetary policy changes expected, the language might still move the Euro and the Pound.

Will the Fed support further rotation in stocks?

Tech shares have been in focus over the past two weeks after the S&P tech index plunged more than 4% between 29-Nov and 05-Dec, before recovering last week. The fall in Teck stocks wasn’t accompanied by a selloff in other sectors, particularly the financials which have been on the rise. This is a classic type of rotation with active managers balancing their portfolios before year end. Tax reforms don’t seem to be of great support to Tech firms, given that their effective tax rate is considered to be the lowest in the U.S. Meanwhile, it’s a big deal for the rest of the U.S, with financials having an effective tax rate of more than 30%. The new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell will likely speed up deregulation for the financial sector which will drive more inflows. And of course, higher interest rates for 2018 will further support the banks' profit margins. That’s why the trajectory of interest rates in 2018 will likely lead to more portfolio balancing before year end.

EU Summit

The breakthrough in Brexit talks on Friday was a great relief for policymakers, who can now move to phase-2 of the talks. Interestingly though, Sterling instead of rising sharply, dropped on the news. Investors seem reluctant to buy Sterling as they view the next phase more complicated than the first. They want to see details of the transition agreement and trade talks concluded before buying Sterling. I don’t think the EU summit on Friday will reveal much, but blessings from EU leaders might lend some support to the Pound.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

UK inflation puts pressure on the pound




For the Bank of England's Mark Carney today was not his day as inflation once again lifted to 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y (3.0% exp), which in turn meant that being above the 2% inflation target he was obliged to write a letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer to explain why it's so high. In the modern age with all in the information that seems somewhat silly, but the reality is that Brexit has put pressure on prices just before Christmas and while normally a high interest rate in recent times has been attractive to trades, in this case it was certainly not. One thing that is not clear is if inflation will continue to keep pressure on the UK economy, as most of it was prescribed to falls in the exchange rate in recent times. However, since the exchange rate has recovered and has moved to be more stable. I believe that inflation will likely taper off, unless we see some disastrous Brexit news in the short term. It's also likely that if inflation does persist, an interest rate hike will certainly be on the cards in the near future.



For the GBPUSD it has been a simple slide back lower and this marks the third straight day of losses after so much enthusiasm for the Brexit deal - which David has seemingly commented on not being law causing feathers to ruffle in Brussels. If we are to see further falls then my eyes would be on the key support levels at 1.3256 and 1.3220 which will be a key area; namely because of the 200 day moving average charging up the charts but also the bullish trend line which is also in place. This key level would build a strong case for the bulls to fight back if there were many left in the market. In the event that we do tick back upwards off some positive news and renewed optimism in the pound, then 1.3393 and 1.3438 are going to be the first major levels of interest to trades on the rise.

Some other positive news has been the Tax bill, with murmurings out of the Senate that revisions have been made and could in theory rush through and get on the president's desk by Christmas. This would be a big surprise if it turned up in the coming week, as expectations are that it would take some time. One clear winner of all of this though has been the S&P500 which continues to climb up the charts and is making new ground.



So far resistance levels are looking like the usual candidates, with psychological levels at 2675 and 2700 likely to be the pausing points at present. Support can also be found around 2652 and 2631, but the bears are very scarce when it comes to pressure on the S&P500 at present - especially with the tax bill in tow. It's easy to say that equity markets could be overvalued, but at the present time the markets seem keen to keep on pushing.



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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

US retail sales beat expectations




It's been a funny day for the USD as it slipped lower on Tax legislation worries. For the most part it has fallen around two senators who are keen to fix the current child tax credits. In reality this is something republicans are likely to help remedy in order to get this bill over the final hurdles and in front of the president to sign before Christmas. However, for me the big mover - and what might have a much more interesting impact - was of course today's retail sales which lifted sharply to 0.8% m/m (0.3% exp). This is a very strong move just ahead of the December rush season and in return we could expect to see GDP forecasts raised for the 4th quarter going forward. I would be surprised if we didn't see solid earnings this season in the equity markets as well given the huge rises in consumer and business confidence. For now it would seem the Trump effect might be still there after all heading into the new year.



One of the key areas this was felt was on the USDCAD which was swinging heavily today, not only on the USD weakness but also Bank of Canada comments which pushed up the chances of a rate hike for March next year. For the most part the USDCAD has been ranging for some time, and it has struggled to break through the major resistance level at 1.2921, which has so far seemed like an impossibility at present. One of the main reasons also has been the 200 day moving average bearing down on that level which of course adds further pressure. At the same time the swing lower today failed to stay below support at 1.2759 which leads me to believe that the bulls are still in this market despite the Canadian recovery we've seen. If the bulls do leap back into the market 200 day moving average will be the key level to close above, and if we do close above then expectations are that we could see a move upwards to the 1.3000 level. For now though it's a case of waiting to see if the ranging does stop and the trends continue.

The other key one to watch out for is the AUD, with the market likely to be looking forward now to next week's RBA minutes on the economy and their thoughts after the most recent unemployment figures. We could certainly see the case made for a potential rate rise in the future, but for now it's a case of wait and see - even though the market is fairly bullish.



Chart wise, and it's clear the AUDUSD bulls are back in fashion and looking to make up some ground. After the positive news yesterday and weak USD it is a surprise to see that it has failed to climb higher to the 200 day moving average and resistance at 0.7687. I still believe this is a key level to watch and if we do see further extensions it could lead to bigger things. For now though like the USDCAD it's a case of wait and see as the market looks to enter Friday trading.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Equities reaction muted on tax breakthrough; Watch the bond market






Asian markets woke up on Thursday to the news that Republicans had passed the long-awaited tax bill. President Trump is now just a pen stroke away from overhauling the tax code. Interestingly there aren’t any fireworks on the announcement of Trump’s Christmas gift; because as expected, the good news is already priced in.

In fact, the reaction was more evident in fixed income markets. U.S. 10-year bond yields traded above 2.5% for the first time since March 2017, allowing the yield curve to steepen after flattening for most of 2017. The spread between 2-year and 10-year treasury bonds climbed more than 12 basis points, reaching 63 basis points, after falling to its lowest level in a decade last week. The spike in long-term bond yields is supposed to be positive for the U.S. dollar, as it suggests the Federal Reserve should become more aggressive in tightening policy next year. However, the dollar’s reaction was muted because there’s another side to this story. The additional supply of U.S. bonds due to the unfunded tax cuts, will probably make U.S. treasuries less attractive in the longer run, and given that most central banks are trying to catch up with the Federal Reserve, yields in Europe and other markets are also anticipated to move higher in 2018, thus narrowing the interest rate differentials gap.

The enormous expected increase in U.S. deficit will also put the U.S. sovereign credit rating at risk. If any of the credit agencies- Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s or Fitch downgrades the U.S. sovereign rating, yields will spike even higher. However, the impact on the dollar won’t necessarily be positive, with the opposite reaction being more likely.

The Yen’s reaction was also muted to Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision. As expected, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged at -0.1% and maintained its 10-year bonds yield target at around 0%. Given that weak inflation is expected to continue dominating the monetary policy outlook, I don’t expect any significant change in policy next year. Thus, the Japanese Yen will continue to take its cue from risk appetite/aversion in equity markets for the foreseeable future.

Euro traders are awaiting the outcome of today’s Catalonia’s election. Polls are suggesting that it will be a tight race between the Catalan Republican Left party, which supports independence and Ciudadanos which is in favor of a unified Spain. Given that the election is not expected to be decisive and parties may form coalitions to govern, the risk of tensions flaring with Madrid again, remain limited.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Dollar selloff in final trading week of 2017




With only two trading sessions remaining for 2017, liquidity dried up across the global markets. This has been obvious in U.S. and European equities, where volumes dropped significantly. However, some investors continued to tweak their portfolios slightly, leading to insignificant price action. I don’t expect equities to deviate much throughout Thursday and Friday.

Interestingly though, traders continued selling off the U.S. dollar. One could blame Wednesday’s U.S. consumer confidence report which fell from a 17-year high, but the dollar was declining before the release. I think the best explanation for the dollar weakness is the sharp fall in U.S. Treasury yields.

10-year bond yields dropped 7 basis points on Wednesday, to reverse almost 50% of the gains from mid-December towards last week, where yields broke above 2.5% for the first time since March 2017.

Despite appetite for risk sending Asian equities to record highs on Thursday, the safe haven Yen is outperforming its major currency peers. USDJPY dipped below 113 for the first time in six trading days after the release of Bank of Japan meeting minutes. Some members are considering tightening monetary policy, if the economy continues to improve next year. This would be a significant shift in strategy for a Central Bank thought to be the last to exit the unconventional stimulus packages. However, I don’t think the BoJ will move anytime soon due to subdued inflation; but, given the lack of liquidity, moves in currency markets may be exaggerated.

Commodity currencies are also enjoying a decent upside, after copper prices rallied to their highest level in almost four years.Oil prices remained close to a two and a half year high, and gold hit a one- month high. Considering that no Tier One economic reports will be released, the Aussie, Kiwi, and Loonie will continue to follow commodity prices direction.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

FOMC minutes give some life back to dollar bulls





The latest FOMC minutes have given the bulls something to be happy about, as the FED once again looked to keep the pace of rate hikes in the near future. There were some key takeaways from the meeting and the most pressing was that FED officials expect inflation to rise to 2% in the medium term as the Tax bill has a impact on the US economy. Expectations were also strong that pressure on the labour market as unemployment further drops would also help boost inflation expectations, and that potentially forecasting of inflation may also have been low historically. So with the FED looking forward in 2018 and Trumps man Powell about to come to the table we could potentially see some strong bullish moves from the FED with a strong US economy in front of them.



For the USD bulls it was positive across the board with large rises against all the major pairs, but mainly the European ones. For me one of the more interesting ones continues to be the USDCAD which lifted slightly, but is still lacking the momentum required to break out of the current bearish trend it finds itself in. So far traders will be watching to see if there is a bounce at support at 1.2427 to see if the bulls can come back into the market, otherwise they could be waiting until 1.2108 to see any sign of a solid bounce. If we see a push back higher 1.2628 and 1.2759 are likely to be the first key levels of resistance. However, the 200 day moving average is creeping down and likely to also act as dynamic resistance in the current market climate.

For me the main thing that keeps on going in the bullish American climate is the equity markets at present, and look no further than the S&P 500. It's getting hard to believe that there is an end, but at some point the bears will look to swipe. For now though, the Trump effect and the recent Tax reform coupled with a FED with positive forecasts is driving American companies higher than ever before and in the process lifting the S&P 500 higher than ever before. Most weeks we are seeing a new record high at present, but that being said uncertainty could be the instability that shakes the bulls off the top for a bit.



On the charts, and as previously stated, the focus would ideally be on psychological levels - as the market continues to rise it will look for these points. I would anticipate that markets will continue to look for key levels at 2725 and 2750 if the bulls look to push higher. Any swings lower are likely to get held up at 2700 as it acts as support in the current market. However, a push through would be treated with concern as generally speaking the 2600 and 2500 level were previously very good at holding back the bears.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

A critical week for the US Dollar after a fragile start






After having the worst annual performance since 2003, the dollar continued to struggle in the first trading week of 2018. The dollar index fell to a three-and-a-half-month low to trade below 92, leaving many traders wondering whether this year will be another devastating one for the greenback. When looking at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, speculators are not showing interest in buying the U.S. dollar yet, and the latest bunch of data did nothing to support the dollar.

Friday's jobs report did not motivate the dollar bulls to return, with non-farm payrolls rising 148,000 in December versus expectations of 190,000. Although I think the numbers weren’t bad and the labor market remains healthy with unemployment at 4.1%, wages are not yet showing signs of accelerating, and this remains the key missing ingredient of the U.S. economy’s recovery.

The latest minutes of the Fed’s meeting also showed that policymakers aren’t sure whether inflation will return to the central bank’s target which is why markets believe that only two rate hikes will occur in 2018, as opposed to the three in the Fed’s dot plot. This week many Fed speakers are due to speak including the two dissenters against a rate hike in December, Neel Kaskhari and Charles Evans. Whether they have changed their mind, or still believe rates shouldn’t be hiked, remains to be seen but we’ll also tune into other Fed speakers for fresh insights.

If the Fed speakers don’t deliver news, tier one economic releases may provide the needed clues. Consumer prices and retail sales are both due for release on Friday. Given that energy prices spiked in December consumer prices are expected to increase 0.2%. However, I think traders will be more interested in the core CPI figure, which strips out volatile items like food and energy. Any upside surprise in the inflation numbers will likely bring back the dollar bulls.

Given that the major U.S. economic releases are four days away, many traders will focus on whether any technical breakouts will occur. EURUSD failed to break above 1.2092 (2017 high) last week, but a successful breakout will likely lead to further buying of the single currency towards 1.22. Similarly, Sterling is only 100 pips short of 1.3656 (2017 High). So traders should keep a close eye on these levels.



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FXTM Forex Market Update | 09/01/2018

Video terbaru dari [HASHTAG]#FXTM[/HASHTAG][HASHTAG]#MarketUpdate[/HASHTAG] bersama Research Analyst ForexTime, Lukman Otunuga

Ekuitas ekuitas global berada di sekitar selama sesi perdagangan hari Selasa karena saham dunia tetap berada pada level yang lebih tinggi. Di arena mata uang, Dollar mengapresiasi optimisme di atas suku bunga AS yang lebih tinggi. Dengan kalender ekonomi yang relatif ringan saat ini, aksi harga mungkin menentukan di mana perdagangan mata uang dan komoditas.

- [HASHTAG]#EURUSD[/HASHTAG] ditekan di bawah 1,20 pada grafik harian
- [HASHTAG]#GBPUSD[/HASHTAG] Bears mengincar 1.3520
- [HASHTAG]#Gold[/HASHTAG] tetap bullish diatas $ 1300




Jangan lupa cek juga Analisis Pasar terbaru FXTM @ http://fxtm.co/marketupdate-yt

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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Bitcoin anjlok, saham global stabil





Bitcoin anjlok tanpa ampun di hari Kamis mencapai di bawah $13000 setelah Korea Selatan mengumumkan rencana untuk melarang perdagangan uang kripto.

Tekanan jual semakin diperhebat oleh komentar tokoh besar finansial, Warren Buffet, yang memperingatkan bahwa "uang kripto akan menemui akhir yang buruk". Bitcoin memasuki tahun baru ini dengan kesulitan untuk kembali bersinar dan bulls sama sekali tidak menampakkan dirinya pekan ini. Apakah gegap gempita uang kripto sudah berakhir?

Kita paham bahwa lilin biasanya berkobar paling besar sebelum meredup. Apakah ini yang akan terjadi pada Bitcoin dan sebagian besar uang kripto tahun ini? Hanya waktu yang akan menjawabnya.

Dari aspek teknis, Bitcoin jelas terlihat mengalami tekanan di grafik harian. Harga kesulitan untuk berada di atas $13000 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah level ini dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju $12000 kemudian $10000.

Harga minyak melonjak ke level tertinggi bertahun-tahun

Harga minyak jelas terlihat bullish pekan ini walaupun ada kekhawatiran bahwa reli saat ini mulai melemah. Harga minyak mentah WTI memasuki level yang tak pernah tersentuh sejak Desember 2014 di harga $64 pada sesi perdagangan hari Kamis. Sentimen membaik karena persediaan minyak mentah AS turun di luar dugaan dalam data resmi hari Rabu.

Semakin jelas bahwa gangguan pasokan signifikan, risiko geopolitik, dan optimisme bahwa pemangkasan produksi OPEC dapat menyeimbangkan pasar adalah sejumlah faktor di balik bangkitnya minyak. Harga minyak mungkin akan terus menguat karena optimisme pasar saat ini, namun perlu diingat bahwa peningkatan produksi minyak serpih AS dapat mengekspos minyak ke risiko penurunan. Secara teknis, minyak mentah WTI sangat bullish di grafik harian dengan breakout di atas $64 dapat membuka jalan menuju $65.60.

Saham global bervariasi, reli Wall Street mereda

Sebagian besar saham Asia melemah pada awal perdagangan hari Kamis setelah Wall Street merosot dalam semalam. Saham Eropa dibuka bervariasi karena kehati-hatian pasar dan sentimen ini dapat menular ke pasar saham AS hari ini.

Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas sedikit menguat di hari Kamis karena Dolar melemah dan berada di kisaran $1320 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan.

Dolar masih belum stabil dan kesulitan untuk menguat sehingga emas masih tetap di atas angin. Dari sudut pandang teknis, logam mulia ini memenuhi prasyarat tren bullish di grafik harian. Terdapat level tertinggi yang konsisten lebih tinggi (HH) serta level terendah yang lebih tinggi (HL) sedangkan MACD juga mengarah ke atas. Bullstetap memegang kendali di atas $1300 dan breakout tegas serta penutupan mingguan di atas $1320 akan membuka jalan menuju $1333.



Rupiah menguat terhadap Dolar

Rupiah menguat terhadap Dolar pada perdagangan hari Kamis. USDIDR bergerak di kisaran 13397 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Dolar dapat terus melemah dengan level target berikutnya di 13370. Apabila optimisme yang meningkat terhadap ekonomi Indonesia terus mendukung Rupiah, USDIDR dapat mengalami tekanan jual di jangka pendek atau menengah.




Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Dollar stabilizes after four days slide





The greenback’s sell-off paused early Tuesday after touching its weakest level since January 2015. Traders have been selling the buck across the board since Monday even though U.S. markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day. This suggests that growing optimism about global economic growth will sooner than later force major central banks to unwind their easy monetary policies.

Apparently, it's not the U.S. data driving the dollar. If this was the case, last week’s core CPI and retail sales figures should have supported the currency. In fact, traders have become aggressive sellers of the dollar with short positions, reaching $9.2 billion a week ago according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders (COT). Given that sentiments have become the key driver of FX flows, the downtrend in the U.S. dollar may continue in the short run.

The question that may come to traders’ minds, is how much further will policymakers allow their currency exchanges to appreciate against the dollar? Earlier today Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso commented that he did not see problems with the USDJPY hovering around 110.80 yen. However, he admitted that big swings in currencies would be problematic. Yesterday’s Eurozone trade balance showed that despite the strong Euro, trade surplus rose to its highest levels in eight months, suggesting that the stronger Euro isn’t becoming a headache to European companies yet.

Comments from ECB’s governing council Adro Hansson yesterday, suggested that the bond-buying program could end entirely in September, if the data warranted. So, I believe inflation figures in the next three months will be a key metric to determine whether the ECB will put an end to stimulus.

Sterling which also benefited from the bearish sentiment surrounding the dollar, climbed above 1.38 for the first time since the Brexit vote. Progress on Brexit negotiations have been a significant driver for the pound, but given that we’re still in the early stages of the second round of talks, expect to see some volatility in the pound. Focus today will turn to UK data, particularly the CPI release. We expect that inflation will have fallen by 0.1% in December from 3.1% in November. However, a fall of more than 0.2% will likely lead to some profit taking in GBPUSD.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

USD surges on positive risk sentiment





The USD surged back into focus today as markets were more upbeat about the USD and the prospects for the future. This came on the back of a crypto currency pullback that sent some investors panicking, but for the majority of traders the USD was the big winner today when it came to the bulls. The beige book was also released today, and while nothing major was really said it did note that US growth continues to look steady, and the general outlook for 2018 is increasingly positive for the majority of firms. Adding further to this was of course the US Industrial Production m/m figures which came in at 0.9% (0.45% exp), so more than double what analysts had predicted. It was also a nice turn of events given that the previous month had a reading of -0.12% which put some pressure on the USD.



The standout pair today was of course the USDJPY which shot back up the charts before hitting resistance at 111.113, but in the last hour has managed to break through and is looking all the more bullish. Traders will now be focused on the 200 day moving average which does tend to slow down bullish and bearish pressure, with the prospect of getting to resistance at 111.944 if it does push through the MA. There is also the prospect of a trend line forming as can be seen on the charts so markets will be looking to see if there is much weight in that as well. If the USD sell off does indeed continue though then support levels can be found at 110.202 and 109.385 on the charts, with expectations that it would be hard to reach 109 unless the bears are really taking things apart.

The upcoming news on Australia is also worth watching as well, given that employment figures are due out shortly. Many analysts are expecting the unemployment rate to remain the same, but if we do see a drop it could put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to be more hawkish. One thing that is interesting is also the climb in the AUDUSD, which will most likely get some comments from the RBA regarding the price levels which are well above expectations when it comes to a trade weighted index. So there could be some jaw boning come the next meeting. Nevertheless, for now the focus is certainly on the AUDUSD and the employment figures due out shortly.



A stronger than expected reading could see the AUDUSD shoot up to 0.8123 as risk sentiment has been positive for the AUD so far. Further extensions higher than that are likely to find the next level at 0.8234. Support levels can also be found at 0.7926 and 0.7864 as well, but the 80 cent mark will be a tough ask to beat unless we do see that positive employment data.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Australian dollar looks weaker on commodity falls





The Australian dollar has been doing okay against the USD in recent times on the back of the commodity boom that has been promising. However, there have been some minor hiccups so far with iron ore prices dropping 4.4% overnight on the Asian exchanges. This in theory could present some minor problems for the Australian dollar as exporting of minerals and metals plays a significant impact on the economy. What is most interesting though is the relation to the NZD, with the AUDNZD being a key focus for traders at present. The NZ economy continues to remain robust and it's commodity based exports have seen some value in recent times with the global dairy auctions as of late. Add in the fact that the recent services PMI was also positive and you have a strong combination for the NZ economy and of course the NZD. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also undergoing some reforms but so far these have not frightened of the market.



So for the AUDNZD it's a case of the bigger neighbour struggling against the smaller one on the currency chart. So far we've got a strong trend line pushing the bears down the chart and stopping and bullish activity taking hold, add into the mix a very strong support level and it's likely we will see some volatility look to break out of the flag pattern here. Resistance can be found at 1.0933 and 1.0982 on the charts, but I would be mainly focused on the trend line which will likely stop any bulls becoming too aggressive. Support levels are looking interesting, with 1.0855 the level to beat for the market as this is a strong level, anything through this could touch on 1.0809. Going below any of these levels could be a hard mask for the market though at present as the AUD is a bigger economy, so it could dig itself out of a hole compared to its neighbour. It's also worth remembering that the AUDNZD is at a low when you look over a very long time frame.

Once again it's been another great day for US equity markets as they climbed the charts hitting record highs again. So far the S&P 500 is not looking like it will stop and the NASDAQ continues also to be a great runner as well. For the bulls it seems that the Trump effect is shining on further more in these markets.



Looking at the S&P 500 and it has climbed up to resistance at 2850 before taking a breath. Expect markets to look to tackle the level again tomorrow if there are no curve balls. Any extension above 2850 is likely to find some further resistance at 2875. Markets will also be looking at possible support levels as well, and they can be found at 2825 and 2809 in the current market climate.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

USD bears in control





The USD took another beating today which saw nearly all major pairs and commodities climb sharply as a result. This is not surprising given the recent data which saw US existing home sales m/m fall to 5.57M (5.7M exp) from the previous high of 5.78M, showing that there may be some slowdown in the housing market. US PMI for services was also lagging expectations coming in at 53.3, still showing expansion but at the same time not coming in where analysts had expected. There could be some good news on the horizon though with Trump expected to talk up his infrastructure plan at the state of the union and lay the foundation for further spending in order to bolster the economy. However, there is a danger that it could cause it to overheat as he looks to be bold and put his front foot forward. The real story though is that right now the USD continues to come under fire, and for the market this is causing large volatility.



One of the big movers today for me was gold which sky rocketed up the charts and pushed past the previous 2017 high. It's always ominous when gold starts becoming more and more bullish but at present this is being caused by the weaker USD and resistance at 1349 was absolutely crushed today as gold whooshed past. The next levels of resistance can be found at 1366 and 1375, with 1375 likely to be a key target level for traders. Anything above this would suddenly get the market a little worried I feel, as gold is always the hedge for recessions and inflation. Support levels in the event the bears catch can be found are at 1349 and 1336, with further potential to dip lower to 1314 if the bears do manage to take hold. All in all though, if the USD weakness continues gold could be swinging higher in no time through no fault of its own.

The New Zealand dollar has got a large shock today on the back of a weaker than expected inflation report. NZ CPI figures for Q4 came in sharply down at 0.1%, expectations were for 0.4%. Pushing the Yearly figure to 1.6%, a large shock for the previously booming economy. This will certainly put pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to pause when it comes to thinking about pushing rates higher in the economy - despite the high level of employed and wage growth at present.



The NZDUSD on the charts quickly pushed back from resistance at 0.7431 as the news filtered through for the CPI figures. Support levels can be found at 0.7324 and 0.7255 at present, with the market also likely to treat the 20 day moving average as support as well. If the USD does gain momentum then we could see some very serious bearish pressure, at the same time if it does remain weak then potentially the NZD could stay elevated despite the recent economic news, so the market focus will be on USD data after this with a bearish bias.


Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Rupiah menguat menjelang rilis data investasi asing langsung






Sebagian besar mata uang pasar berkembang menguat pada sesi perdagangan hari Kamis di saat Dolar merosot ke level terendah baru dalam tiga tahun terakhir.

Rupiah menguat terhadap Dolar pada perdagangan hari Kamis. USDIDR bergerak ke bawah 13280, level yang tak pernah tersentuh sejak September 2017. Apabila posisi Dolar tetap melemah, mata uang pasar berkembang termasuk Rupiah dapat terus terangkat. Perhatian akan tertuju pada laporan investasi langsung asing di hari Jumat yang mungkin menjelaskan seberapa banyak investasi asing yang masuk ke Indonesia pada kuartal terakhir 2017. Peningkatan investasi dapat memperkuat optimisme terhadap ekonomi Indonesia dan meningkatkan sentimen beli terhadap Rupiah.

Indeks Dolar anjlok di bawah 89.00

USD terus melemah terhadap sekeranjang mata uang utama pada hari Kamis pagi setelah merosot malam harinya karena komentar dari Menteri Keuangan AS, Steven Mnuchin.

Mnuchin mengatakan bahwa Dolar yang melemah "bagus" untuk perdagangan AS, sehingga investor bearish menyerang USD tanpa ampun dan mengakibatkan Indeks Dolar turun ke bawah 89.00 pada awal sesi perdagangan. Sentimen terhadap Dolar semakin bearish dan ini tergambar dari aksi harga yang tertekan. Dari sudut pandang teknikal, Indeks Dolar tetap sangat bearish di grafik harian. Breakdown dan penutupan harian di bawah 89.00 dapat menyebabkan penurunan lebih lanjut menuju 88.00.

Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas melonjak ke level tertinggi yang belum pernah tercapai sejak Agustus 2016 di atas $1360 karena Dolar AS sangat melemah.

Logam mulia ini tetap sangat bullish pada grafik harian dan dapat semakin meningkat karena USD rentan melemah. Breakout tegas dan penutupan harian di atas $1360 dapat menyebabkan peningkatan lebih lanjut menuju $1375. Bulls tetap terdukung di atas level support dinamis $1340.



Sterling meningkat ke atas 1.43

GBPUSD sangat bullish di grafik harian terutama karena USD yang rawan melemah. Kombinasi lemahnya USD dan optimisme Brexit dapat mengangkat GBPUSD menuju 1.4300 dan kemudian 1.4370. Indikator lagging teknis seperti MACD dan 50 MA mendukung kecenderungan bullish di grafik harian dan mingguan.



Bitcoin masih jadi sorotan

Bitcoin tampak lemah dan goyah pekan ini. Uang kripto ini kesulitan untuk bertahan di atas $11,000.

Kegelisahan terasa karena Korea Selatan melarang trading uang kripto anonim dan pelarangan uang kripto oleh China cukup berdampak pada selera terhadap Bitcoin. Dari sudut pandang teknis, Bitcoin tetap bearish di grafik harian. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah $11,000 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju $10,000. Sebaliknya, break di atas $12,000 dapat memicu peningkatan menuju lower high $13,000.




Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

FXTM Forex Market Update | 31/01/2018

Video terbaru dari [HASHTAG]#FXTM[/HASHTAG][HASHTAG]#MarketUpdate[/HASHTAG] bersama Research Analyst ForexTime, Lukman Otunuga

Saham global berada di bawah tekanan pada hari Selasa karena investor tetap berhati-hati menjelang pertemuan Federal Reserve. Dolar berjuang untuk menahan diri terhadap sekeranjang mata uang utama sementara Sterling dipukul oleh kegelisahan Brexit. Di arena komoditas, Emas diuntungkan dari Dollar yang rentan. Risiko acara utama hari ini adalah kesaksian BoE Mark Carney dan kepercayaan konsumen CB untuk Amerika Serikat.

- [HASHTAG]#EURUSD[/HASHTAG] tetap bullish di daily charts
- [HASHTAG]#GBPUSD[/HASHTAG] saat ini menuju 1.4175
- [HASHTAG]#Gold[/HASHTAG] bulls mencari $ 1360




Jangan lupa cek juga Analisis Pasar terbaru FXTM @ http://fxtm.co/marketupdate-yt

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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Dolar melemah walau Fed hawkish, Emas tergelincir





Sungguh luar biasa melihat Dolar tetap terpuruk walaupun Fed menyatakan optimisme pada tekanan inflasi yang meningkat di tahun ini.

Walaupun sesuai ekspektasi Fed tidak mengubah suku bunga di bulan Januari, pandangan yang relatif optimis tentang ekonomi dan peningkatan ekspektasi inflasi memberi nuansa hawkish. Fakta bahwa Dolar tetap tertekan walau rapat Fed hawkishmenyiratkan bahwa berbagai faktor fundamental lain memengaruhi mata uang ini. Janet Yellen bersiap untuk menyerahkan tongkat estafet kepada Jerome Powell dan hal ini menjadi perbincangan terutama tentang bagaimana dampaknya terhadap Dolar, kebijakan moneter, dan ekonomi AS.

Terlalu awal untuk menerka bagaimana pengaruh FOMC di bawah kepemimpinan Powell akan memengaruhi ekonomi AS dan ini adalah ketidakpastian yang menyebabkan Dolar melemah. Perlu diperhatikan pula bahwa ada banyak gubernur Fed baru, dan Powell adalah seorang pengacara, bukan ekonom. Walaupun Fed mungkin menghindari rintangan dengan bertahan di status quo, namun masalah dapat terjadi jika ekonomi AS mengalami goncangan tak terduga.

Hal lain yang terus menekan Dolar adalah ketidakpastian politik di Washington dan kekhawatiran tentang posisi Amerika Serikat di perdagangan global. Prospek bahwa bank sentral penting lainnya akan mengetatkan kebijakan moneter secara bertahap juga memperburuk sentimen beli, dan ini mengakibatkan Dolar dapat terus melemah.

Dari sudut pandang teknis, Indeks Dolar tetap sangat bearish di grafik harian. Ditemukan level tertinggi yang konsisten lebih rendah serta level terendah yang lebih rendah saat MACD mengarah ke bawah. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah 89.00 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju 88.50 kemudian 88.00.

Rupiah melemah jelang rilis NFP AS

Rupiah melemah terhadap Dolar di hari Kamis dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan ditutup lebih rendah sementara investor bersiap menyambut data NFP AS yang akan dirilis pada hari Jumat. Sehubungan dengan valas, USDIDR dapat mengalami pantulan teknis tajam di grafik harian. Breakout di atas 13440 dapat membuka jalan menuju 13460. Sebaliknya, penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah 13440 dapat mendorong depresiasi menuju 13400.

Sorotan mata uang - GBPUSD

GBP melemah pada sesi perdagangan hari Kamis karena data manufaktur Inggris lebih rendah dari ekspektasi dan merusak sentimen. Aktivitas sektor manufaktur Inggris turun di bulan Januari dari 56.2 di bulan Desember menjadi 55.3. Laporan yang mengecewakan ini dapat memberi inspirasi bagi bears untuk menyerang GBP.

Dari aspek teknis, GBPUSD terus mendapat support dalam bentuk lemahnya USD di grafik harian. Breakout yang menentukan dan penutupan harian di atas 1.4230 dapat membuka jalan untuk peningkatan menuju 1.4300. Sebaliknya, jika harga gagal bertahan di atas 1.4230 maka akan memicu penurunan menuju 1.4110 dan 1.4000.



Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas mengalami tekanan jual di hari Kamis. Harga emas merosot di bawah $1330 setelah Fed mengisyaratkan akan melakukan lebih banyak kenaikan suku bunga tahun ini.

Walaupun emas dapat terus melemah di jangka pendek, USD yang rentan melemah dapat membatasi penurunan logam mulia ini. Emas tetap bullish di grafik harian dan dapat semakin menguat apabila laporan NFP yang dirilis Jumat ini gagal memenuhi ekspektasi pasar. Dari aspek teknis, Emas masih dalam proses menciptakan higher low baru. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah $1335 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi menuju $1324.15. Sebaliknya, breakout intraday di atas $1340 dapat membuka jalan menuju $1360.






Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Equity markets shake of the bears




Markets have been hot and cold today as equities saw some intense volatility. For most, it was the beginning of the end at the start of the week, but the close of Tuesdays bell in the US has been so far fairly bullish. Many in the market had been expecting further falls, but so far most investors have been quick to push back on the basis that macroeconomic indicators are still strong, and there is no deterioration compared to 2008 which saw heavy falls as a result. I'm inclined to agree at this statement given the history of the markets and of course that for most economies they're looking to lift rates and cut back QE. There has been of course some minor wobbles with the US economy and Europe in the past, but so far it's full steam ahead and yields are looking good.



The S&P 500 had a crazy day today and it would not have been for the faint hearted as the market looked to dive deeper, pushing all the way down to the 200 day moving average before starting to make a solid recovery. The 100 day moving average was ignored on the way up, but that's not surprising given the aggressive nature of these moves, but nonetheless technical's did come into play with the market hitting resistance at 2698 to pause and breath. The next level up for the bulls if they get to continue will be at 2743. Support levels if the market were to turn can be found at 2628 and 2564, but the major one will be the 200 day moving average which has so far managed to beat back the bears on such an aggressive day of volatility. I would be surprised to not see the same sort of aggressive volatility tomorrow as markets prepare for another big day again.



Across the Atlantic in European markets the FTSE has been hammered in the previous week, but finally clawed back some major gains in line with the rest of the globe in the evening. For a while it looked like a bullish trend line may come into play, but the Monday sell-off put that out of the question and the bears took full control. The recovery today, however, was very strong and saw the market climb back up to support at 7278 as traders looked to breath - much like the S&P 500. I would be surprised to see further gains here for the FTSE as UK equities have not been as impressive on the back of Brexit. So we could see resistance levels really push back bulls in the market. On the other hand sharp drops to 7205 and 7100 are not off the cards if the bears can really get there claws back into the equity markets at present.

All in all, at present the global equity markets present a unique opportunity, but a lot of risk when it comes to the amount of volatility. Movements like these are rare and powerful, but for traders they can come with heart palpitations.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis