Suggestion FXTM Daily Market Analysis

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Penjualan ritel Indonesia meningkat di bulan Agustus





Optimisme terhadap ekonomi Indonesia menguat pada perdagangan hari Senin setelah rilis data penjualan ritel bulan Agustus yang mengesankan sebesar 2.2% karena peningkatan permintaan bahan pangan. Data penjualan yang menggembirakan ini mendukung PDB dan sesuai dengan optimisme Bank Indonesia terhadap pertumbuhan di masa mendatang. Prospek keseluruhan terlihat menjanjikan meninjau data domestik Indonesia yang terus menampilkan isyarat stabilitas.

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan ditutup lebih tinggi di hari Senin, meningkat 0.16% dan ditutup pada 5914.933 karena sentimen terhadap Indonesia semakin membaik.

Emas menguat karena situasi geopolitik

Emas bersinar di hari Senin karena ketegangan geopolitik meningkatkan permintaan terhadap aset safe haven.

Perkembangan program nuklir Korea Utara membuat investor mencari aman dan mengantarkan harga emas ke level tertinggi mingguan di atas $1285 pada awal perdagangan. Bulls jangka pendek mungkin memanfaatkan ketidakpastian saat ini dan ketegangan politik untuk mengangkat harga, namun kenaikannya akan terbatas oleh Dolar yang menguat. Meningkatnya ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember membuat emas tetap menghadapi risiko untuk semakin menurun.

Trader teknikal akan sangat memperhatikan reaksi harga di atas levelresistance$1280. Sepertinya ada pantulan teknikal dan bears tetap sangat memegang kendali di bawah level psikologis $1300. Nilai yang terus lemah di bawah $1280 dapat memicu penurunan lebih lanjut menuju $1267. Sebaliknya, penutupan harian di atas level ini dapat mendorong kenaikan lebih lanjut menuju $1290.



Harga minyak WTI tertekan

Minyak mentah WTI menghadapi tekanan jual luar biasa pada perdagangan Jumat lalu karena masalah oversuplai mengganggu ketertarikan investor terhadap komoditas ini. Optimisme bahwa OPEC akan mampu menyeimbangkan pasar telah mendukung harga di jangka pendek, tapi ini dapat mendorong produsen minyak serpih AS untuk meningkatkan produksi. Di kuartal terakhir 2017 ini, pasar minyak dapat menghadapi risiko penurunan apabila kenaikan produksi Amerika Serikat mengganjal upaya OPEC untuk menyeimbangkan pasar minyak yang telah jenuh. Dari sudut pandang teknikal, minyak mentah WTI berisiko semakin tergelincir apabila harga mencapai di bawah level $50.

Sorotan mata uang - GBPUSD

Pound mengalami rebound agresif pada hari Senin karena pasar menyambut hangat janji Theresa May untuk memangkas semua yang menentang kepemimpinannya.

Optimisme saat ini dapat membuat Pound terapresiasi di jangka pendek, namun risiko politik domestik dan ketidakpastian Brexit akan membatasi peningkatan ini. Putaran kelima diskusi Brexit akan dimulai hari ini di Brussels dan tidak ada rencana yang jelas tentang bagaimana Inggris akan keluar dari Uni Eropa. Pound masih berisiko mengalami penurunan. Situasi Pound dapat sangat kacau balau kuartal ini, terutama apabila drama Brexit dan fundamental ekonomi yang lemah menghalangi Bank of England untuk meningkatkan suku bunga AS di bulan November.

Dari sudut pandang teknikal, GBPUSD berada di atas 1.3150 di hari Senin. Penutupan harian di atas level ini dapat menjadi sinyal dimulainya pantulan teknikal dengan 1.3230 sebagai level target berikutnya. Di skenario alternatif, penurunan yang bertahan di bawah 1.3150 dapat membuka jalan menuju 1.3050.





Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

mangtab nih semoga emas terus naik yah sampai buln depan
kalau bisa naik terus mungkin loss ane bisa tercover lagi,
masih belum pake ea soalnya

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Catalan back down sends EUR higher




The Euro has rallied in later trading after waiting on to hear the speech from Puigdemont in the Catalan parliament in Spain. There had been concern from Euro-zone members that Puigdemont the president of the Catalan province may use the speech to declare independence from Spain which would have cause some major issues. However, he never went on to declare independence, but instead suspended the idea under the guise of further talks with Madrid. In all reality this is likely to end badly for Puigdemont in the long run as Spain is now holding a special cabinet meeting on Wednesday in order to deal with the issue. What is certainly clear though is that no EU leaders support such a move and after today's speech the Euro has rallied sharply on the belief that nothing more will come of this in the long run which could disrupt the Euro-zone project.



For the EURUSD traders tomorrow I expect they will be expecting a very strong response from Spain and I would expect the bulls to take full advantage of the situation to push the Euro higher. The EURUSD failed today to gain further ground, after touching resistance around 1.1814, as it waits on the Spanish government response. Further potential extensions are likely to target key levels at 1.1915 and 1.2000 in the long run. If the Spanish government is seen to be weak then I would expect support levels at 1.1719 and 1.1621 to come back into the fray, as the bears look to capitalise on the weakness. It's also worth paying attention to the 20 day moving average, but I expect that the market will be focused on fundamentals instead of technical's tomorrow given all that is happening in Spain.

Across the world in New Zealand and the major political parties are currently going through negotiations with minor political parties in order to form a government after the most recent election. It's a case of demands from the minor parties as they hold the balance of power, and the uncertainty (much like Spain) has been weighing on the currency in the face of an active market. You only have to look at the AUDUSD which normally is a close mirror to the NZDUSD to see the deviation caused by political instability. So far the market is wondering which side the minor parties will go
with, so much so that the NZD has not moved but this Thursday is meant to be an indicator of how things will go.



For the NZDUSD traders, the focus is on support at 0.7054 which is currently holding up further drops. The expectation is that a left-wing leading party gets into power then we could see further NZDUSD drops into the 60 cent range. With support levels at 0.6983 and 0.6921 likely to come under pressure. If we see a right-wing party come into power (which was the previous government) then the market will likely jump and put pressure on resistance levels at 0.7166 and 0.7219 respectively.


Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

It is all about inflation




When the Federal Reserve met on 19-20 September, it announced the start of winding down the $4.5billion balance sheet and maintained plans for a third-rate hike in 2017. The statement reflected confidence in the economic activity particularly the pickup in household spending and growth in business investments. Despite the storms Harvey and Irma, the central bank was still confident the U.S. economy would keep its momentum, and Janet Yellen sounded more hawkish than markets anticipated. This was all good news for the U.S. dollar which rallied for three weeks after the meeting, appreciating 2.3% against a basket of currencies.

The primary concern was low inflation. Fed chair Janet Yellen described it as something of a "mystery." When an institute which employs over 300 Ph.D. economists still doesn’t know whether low inflation is persistent or transitory, the risk of tightening monetary policy further might be a huge policy mistake if inflation did not return to normal levels. The Phillips Curve Model which theorizes that there should be a strong inverse relationship between unemployment and price inflation is apparently not working, and probably it is time for the Fed to drop this theory and find new models.

Yesterday’s Fed minutes reflected such worries. Several members insisted that the decision of raising rates for the third time in 2017 should depend on economic data which increase their confidence that inflation would move towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The dollar bulls did not like the statement despite expectations of a December rate hike remained above 80% according to CME’s Fedwatch Tool. The dollar index continued to fall on Thursday for the fifth day in a row, with overall declines of 1.5% from Oct-6 highs.

Given that inflation has become the most important economic metric impacting the dollar’s direction, today’s PPI and more importantly tomorrow’s CPI should be watched very closely. Any upside surprise would curb the dollar’s fall; however, a disappointing figure would be an excuse to keep dragging the USD lower.

The Euro performed very well, climbing to the highest level in more than two weeks at 1.1878. After Carles Puigdemont suspended the process of Catalonia's independence, Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has given him five days to say whether or not he has declared independence. Depending on the response, the government in Madrid could impose direct rule on Catalonia. I think the overall crisis in Spain is still underpriced, and if no agreement is reached in the next couple of days the stability of the Eurozone as a whole would be at risk. Although economic fundamentals continue to support a stronger Euro, politics will play a significant role as to where the Euro heads next. ECB’s Mario Draghi will participate today in the annual meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF in Washington. Any new hint provided will move the single currency.

Despite no advances made in the Brexit negotiations, Sterling continued to trade higher against the dollar for the fourth consecutive day. Although Brexit will keep weighing on Sterling on the longer run, monetary policies seem to be the major driver for now. Expectations of BoE raising rates in the final quarter of 2017 remained high, thus narrowing monetary policy divergence with the Federal Reserve. I think in the next couple of days, Sterling will be driven by economic data rather than Brexit negotiations.


More Info Here

FXTM www.forextime.com | Facebook:www.facebook.com/FXTMid/ | Twitter : www.twitter.com/FXTMid
✓Traders from 156 countries | ✓13 international awards | ✓16 secure payment methods | ✓25 languages supported​

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Data perdagangan menggembirakan, IHSG menguat




Sentimen terhadap ekonomi Indonesia semakin baik pada hari Senin dengan rilis surplus perdagangan sebesar $1.76 miliar di bulan September. Perdagangan luar negeri mengalami surplus selama dua bulan berturut-turut di bulan September dan ini memperkuat prospek positif di Indonesia. Impor melampaui estimasi pasar dengan peningkatan sebesar 13.13% dan menyiratkan bahwa konsumen terus berbelanja dan ekspor terus meningkat di level 15.60% sehingga mendukung potensi PDB. Data perdagangan yang menggembirakan ini meningkatkan keyakinan terhadap ekonomi Indonesia sehingga IHSG berpotensi terus berkibar.

Terkait prospek forex, Rupiah menguat terhadap Dolar AS di hari Senin. USDIDR diperdagangkan menuju 13480.

Euro tertekan oleh masalah politik

Euro rentan mengalami penurunan di Senin pagi karena drama politik yang semakin menegangkan di Spanyol.

Kegelisahan seputar perkembangan Catalonia begitu terasa setelah Perdana Menteri Mariano Rajoy memberi waktu pada Carles Puigdemont hingga 08:00 GMT untuk menjelaskan status kemerdekaan Catalonia. Puigdemont mengabaikan ultimatum Madrid yang menyampaikan surat yang tidak memberikan kejelasan mengenai responsnya terhadap deklarasi kemerdekaan pekan lalu. Pemerintah Spanyol memberi waktu kepada pemimpin Catalonia hingga hari Kamis untuk menyatakan kemerdekaan secara resmi atau membatalkannya.

Apabila Puigdemont menyatakan kemerdekaan secara resmi, Madrid dapat mengaktifkan Pasal 155 Konstitusi Spanyol. Perkembangan ini dapat memperburuk drama politik di Spanyol dan memicu kekhawatiran terkait ketidakstabilan politik Eropa sehingga Euro berpotensi melemah.

Dari sudut pandang teknis, EURUSD tetap berada di rentang luas pada grafik harian dengan level target 1.1850. Breakout tegas di atas 1,1850 dapat membuka peningkatan lebih lanjut menuju 1.1920. Di skenario alternatif, penurunan di bawah 1.1850 dapat membuka jalan menuju 1.1730.



Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas terus menguat pada sesi perdagangan hari Senin menuju $1305 walaupun Dolar semakin stabil.

Logam mulia ini terangkat pada Jumat lalu setelah data inflasi AS yang lemah di bulan September mempersuram prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS di 2018. Risiko politik di Spanyol dan ketegangan geopolitik terkait Iran dan Korea Utara masih membuat investor mencari aman, sehingga harga emas berpotensi terus bertahan di jangka pendek. Dari sudut pandang teknis, emas telah melampaui level psikologis $1300 yang dapat mendorong kenaikan lebih lanjut menuju $1315 dan $1320. Apabila harga tidak berhasil bertahan di atas $1300, maka emas akan kembali melemah menuju $1280.





Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

​

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

AUD traders wait for CPI figures




The Australian dollar has taken a beating in recent trading days, as the selling in it was mainly a result of the recent NZ election which dragged on the AUDUSD. This may come as a surprise, but there is some correlation between the two when it comes to their pairing with the USD. However, this selling has now stopped and markets are focused on the CPI data due out in coming days, which will provide some strong direction. The current expectation is a big rise in CPI data from 0.2% q/q to 0.8% q/q, which would bring inflation in that 2% target. Going further above the 2% target we can expect this to raise the attention of fixed rate markets who will be looking to see if this gives ammunition to the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift rates. The economy does seem to be bouncing back so this catalyst could lead to the bulls rushing back into the AUDUSD, as it continues to look stable and lack any political risk when compared to NZ at present - which has a degree.



With all this in mind where to for the AUDUSD. Well there are two ways to look at it and a weaker USD is not the answer here. If we do see a weaker CPI result then I could see the AUDUSD whacked and pushed lower to support at 0.7729, but it shouldn't have a massive impact. On the upside if we saw a CPI reading that beat expectations and markets felt it might be sustained then I could see resistance at 07900 targeted, with long term upside potential of hitting further resistance levels at 0.8000. Either way you look at it there is potential for bigger movements in the AUDUSD and potentially the AUDNZD as well, but CPI figures will have a big impact on market sentiment for the rest of the week.

Shinzo Abe got what he wanted as he swept back into power after this weekend's elections and the USDJPY was quick to respond by losing some ground on the Monday open, as Yen bulls appeared in the market. The continuation of Abenomics will be interesting, it has been one of the greatest economic experiments of its time. The reality though is that it has not really caused the expected result and may have created more problems. Markets however are expecting that the Bank of Japan governor will be replaced and another more hawkish governor could be brought in to create further change from a monetary policy point of view.



For the USDJPY traders it's a good time to be bullish, but also realise that the USDJPY does like big levels and to move sideways from time to time as well. Resistance at 114.258 thus far has been a hard ask for the market and I am expecting to see a real test here. If we can see a push through then further extensions to 115.322 are likely to be on the cards here. But USD strength will also need to hold up and it has suffered recently.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Australian CPI sinks chances of rate rise




The Australian dollar was thumped by the market today as CPI data missed the mark coming in at 0.6% (0.8% exp) leaving the market with a bitter taste in its month. On the back of higher oil prices and retail prices many had expected to see inflation lift and even hit the magic 2% inflation figure which might prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia into action. Sadly, it was not meant to be and the weaker figure coupled with global sentiment of weaker inflation in the mid range term means it's unlikely the RBA will get to raise rates anytime soon. So where to for the AUD? Well with the US government pushing its tax reform this could certainly boost the possibility of increasing US GDP and the USD for the most part. There has been a lot of weakness for the USD recently and that has boosted things, but for the most part it does seem realistic that they might be able to get it through. This would obviously play out well for the AUDUSD bears, especially if we continue to see weaker data in the long run.



So far the AUDUSD bears have slashed down the charts at a blistering pace before hitting the 200 day moving average coupled with support around 0.7687 and pausing for a breather. Given the recent weakness in the commodity currencies I would not be surprised to see further falls down to the next level of support at 0.7624. Nevertheless, the AUDUSD does have a habit of bouncing back, so in the event it did I would expect the potential for it to modestly rise to 0.7748, but it would be hard pressed to get higher to resistance at 0.7821. In any case I do believe that the bears may hang around for some time yet and market traders are likely to target key support levels until they find any hope for the AUD.

The UK has always been struggling with the recent Brexit negotiations but thus far FTSE 100 traders have managed to avoid the brunt of it. Not to so much today as global equity markets took a big tumble, despite growth forecasts being upgraded in the US. Markets at the moment seem quite skitterish and we are starting to see long candles, which means traders are getting very aggressive to defend these bullish positions at times.



The FTSE 100 is a fantastic case of this as we saw an aggressive dive today, followed up by some aggressive buying shortly after to bring it back into line. Support was touched at 7436, but traders were quick to defend this level, but the bears still took considerable ground. The 200 day is moving up the chart and if we break through support at 7436 then I would expect an extension further down to this level. Resistance levels can still be found at 7551 and 7600, with the potential to breakthrough looking very remote at present.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Memperhatikan gbpusd hari ini masih sangat sempit perubahan harganya, setelah kemarin sempat naik dan membentuk bull candle long bodi
saat ini masih dalam konsolidasi dan mungkin akan kembali menurun, sebab dalam beberapa hari trend pair ini belum berubah banyak

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Currencies stay range bound ahead of Fed’s decision




It is a quiet Wednesday in the currency markets. Traders are favoring to remain on the sidelines ahead of multiple key risk events, including the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision later today; the Bank of England’s rate decision on Thursday; President Trump’s nomination of the next Fed Chair; the U.S. tax reform announcement and Friday’s NFP report.

Today’s FOMC meeting will not be accompanied by an update on economic projections, nor by a press conference. Traders have to act on very few amendments on a 500 words statement. The main theme is unlikely to change, and the Fed will stick to its plans of gradual tightening. However, recent economic releases have shown significant improvement in the U.S. economic activity, and GDP has grown 3% for two consecutive quarters, suggesting that we may see slight, positive changes in assessing economic activity.

Despite an uptick in headline inflation in September, core CPI continued to miss estimates, and remained below the targeted 2%. Thus, I expect little to no change on inflation assessment.

Overall, the Fed will likely meet market expectations, by keeping interest rates unchanged in November, and signal a rate hike in its final meeting in December.

President Trump’s nomination for Fed Chair on Thursday could easily overshadow today’s statement, especially if Fed Governor Jerome Powell is not his first choice. Powell has been supportive of Janet Yellen's policy of gradual tightening in monetary policy; thus, I do not expect big moves in Treasuries, or the U.S. dollar, if he is nominated. However, if Stanford University’s Professor of Economics, John Taylor, is nominated instead, expect big moves in Treasury yields and the dollar, which could appreciate sharply against its peers. According to Taylor rule, a forecasting model that determines where interest rates should be, based on targeted inflation and full employment, interest rates should be much higher the current levels.

The Kiwi was the only outperforming currency today, surging 1% against the dollar after labor market statistics showed that the cost of labor grew 1.9%, and the unemployment rate fell to a nine-year low. If wages continue to show signs of strengthening, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely start raising rates next year, as opposed to earlier forecasts of tightening in 2019.


Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Markets poised for Nonfarm Payroll





The build up has begun for tomorrows NFP announcement and the market is betting big time on a strong result of 313K; this is a very large expectation, but it makes a lot of sense when you consider the seasonal impact that Christmas has on markets. Labour markets certainly boom during this period and even part time workers are considered part of the work force. I will say one thing, with such a large number it will be hard to beat, and I'm not certain that markets will take kindly to anything below the 313K, so it could be the NFP of the year on this basis. Markets will also be digesting the recent announcement that Powell will take over from Yellen as the FED chair. The markets thus far have been positive regarding this, with a number of heavy weight finance figures speaking out in favour of him. Many had expected a hawk, but the reality is that he's likely to take over from the Yellen framework and continue it in the short to medium term until he has a good grasp of the situation.



For the NFP traders, the metal markets is always the big calling when it comes to movements. Gold has thus far been creeping up on whatever USD weakness it can find, which is not surprising as the bulls are always there. Any NFP weakness tomorrow could see gold catapulted above the current resistance level at 1281 with the potential to even break through 1295 if it's quite bad. In the event it's a very strong result and in line with expectations then 1267 and 1247 are likely to be key levels of support for the gold market. All the moving averages at present are not likely to impact any shifts upwards or downwards so it will be a case of playing of key price levels that the market can digest at this present time.

It was also a big day for the British market as the Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points, leaving the intraday banking rate at 0.5%. This move had been widely expected, but the comments afterwards helped drive the pound down and encourage the doves in the market as the Bank expected inflation to taper off (as the pound stabilised) and also Brexit would bring uncertainty to the market causing issues in the long run.



The big benefactor of this was of course the FTSE 100 which lifted sharply on the news as the bulls rushed in to take advantage, and as the UK oil producers showed strong earnings as well. The market is now poised to have another crack at resistance at 7600 and NFP could be a catalyst which could push it through tomorrow as well. In the event that markets fall back down support at 7551 and 7436 is likely to be key levels, and markets will be looking to stop the rot if anything does transpire.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

RBNZ set for change on new government mandate




The New Zealand government continues to be in the eye of traders as the current changes to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand look to be fast tracked. So far what we know is that the focus will not only be on inflation, but almost full employment for the NZ economy. This should come as no surprise given the recent elections and the want for the government to change to focus on this. Additionally, there is the need for a change on current FX policy which could have far reaching impacts on the NZ economy, as the current minor party (NZ first) wants to see the RBNZ intervene in FX markets to help drive export markets and keep the NZD lower. This has been seen as futile in the past given the RBNZ being quite small compared to world markets, so it could cause minor issues going forward. Either way markets are not currently upbeat regarding the prospects of the NZDUSD, but I believe the NZD is starting to stabilise compared to other currencies and is showing the odd signs of the bulls back in the market.



So far the NZDUSD bull have managed to claw back a considerable amount of ground in the face of uncertainty in the NZ economy. For me resistance at 0.6960 is the current strong level that is holding back any further gains on the charts, the reason being is that no one knows the current direction of the NZ market after elections. If it was positive then I would expect a jump to 0.7029, but a potential slow down shortly after this jump. In the event we did see minor falls on the charts then support could be found at 0.6891 and 0.6834 respectively, with the ability to go lower as markets are considerably more bearish after the recent election.

Oil has been one of the big jumpers on the charts as markets have been quick to worry about the situation in Saudi Arabia recently. The anti corruption crackdown has taken a few high profile heads, and the markets are worried about the state of play from the world's largest oil producer. Certainly, there have been drawdown's on global oil supplies, but the shakeup of affairs could have the largest impact in the long run and drive oil prices higher in the short term.



So far Oil bulls have charged forward and knocked out support at 56.17 as the oil markets continued to run higher. Resistance level can be found at 59.08 and 62.12 on the charts with the potential to go higher if more political uncertainty presents itself. There is also the potential for charts to dip lower and support can be found at 56.17 and 50.21 as the market looks to drift lower as news looks more promising potentially.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Euro bears continue to swipe




The Euro has been a star over the previous months, but it's becoming more and more lacklustre as the ongoing Spanish drama is still a thorn in the side of the Euro-zone. While investors love a bit of volatility, the Euro-zone seems to keep battling crisis after crisis trying to hold everything together as more moles pop every month to be whacked. Is there cause for concern? Well markets seem to think so as of late, and event EU retail sales figures y/y jumping to 3.7% (2.8% exp) were not enough to fight of the bears. Additionally, the US saw a strong JOLTS job openings figure of 6.09M (6.08M) which shows that the labour market in the US continues to not be at capacity. This can also be seen in the fact that wages have not grown as fast as economists had expected, which points to slack in the labour market that can still be filled. It would seem though that we are close capacity in the next year or two in the US if there are no negative economic events.



So for the Euro bulls it's been a tough ride over the past few weeks and the head and shoulders pattern that did occur is likely to keep going with bears taking full advantage. Target support levels for the market will be found around 1.1519 and 1.1433, with the potential for further lows if we see any further weak news on Catalonia. If we do see the bulls come back into the market I would expect to see resistance be strong around 1.1621 and 1.1719 on the charts. Additionally, the 20 day and 50 day moving average should be watched as dynamic resistance levels which daily traders have been respecting as of late. However, for the most part there is a clear trend of bearish sentiment which has the potential to continue for some time.

NZ dollar traders also went short today as the Global Dairy Index came in at -3.5%, obviously this is quite big news for traders as the Dairy industry accounts for 7% of New Zealand's GDP. But further to this we have the RBNZ rate statement due out tomorrow, and many are expecting some fireworks here. Not in the sense of a rate rise, but in the sense that change is in the wind with the new government wanting it to have stronger mandates. It will be a case of wait and see, and the prospect of a new governor is on the cards as well with the new left wing government.



For the NZDUSD traders there has been a failure to breach anything above the 70 cent market, which continues to act as a psychological barrier at present. Markets thus far are looking bearish and swinging lower just coming up short of support at 0.6891. There is further potential for moves lower to 0.6834 and 0.6802 on the charts. I would be surprised to see it spring back up higher, but if it does the 70 cent mark is likely to be a hard stop for the pair.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Sterling slides, Bitcoin tumbles & Investors seeking more clarity on tax reforms




Sterling fell more than 0.5% early Monday, after the Sunday Times reported yesterday that 40 Conservative Party MP’s agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in the Prime Minister, Theresa May. While this remains short of the 48 votes needed to force a new leadership, it still creates much frustration amongst investors seeking clarity on Brexit negotiations. With May’s position being potentially at risk and no significant progress after six rounds of talks with EU, Sterling may come under increased pressure in the next couple of days, with the 1.3024 support level at risk of being breached. A leaked letter from Boris Johnson and Michael Gove pushing for Hard Brexit, add to the uncertainty as House of Commons meet on Tuesday.

It is also a busy week on the UK’s economic data front, with Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, labour data and retails sales due to release. However, politics are likely to remain the dominant factor moving the pound this week.

For investors finding the low volatility environment boring, have a look at Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency lost more than quarter of its value after reaching a high of $7,888 on Nov 8. The cancellation of a plan to increase the bitcoin’s block size “Segwit2x” on Wednesday, is what to be blamed for the price crash, but given that prices rallied $400 on Monday it seems the news has been digested. We have seen similar steep falls in Bitcoin throughout the year; specifically in June and September, but every time a considerable decline occurs, new investors jump in to experience the new asset class. The increasing investor interest in the cryptocurrency market has pushed CME Group to announce the launch of a bitcoin derivative soon, indicating that more fund managers and professional investors will become involved. Although Bitcoin might not be a suitable asset for conservative investors due to its volatility, I still see a great potential ahead.

Given that the earnings season has come to an end, equity investors will shift their attention to the U.S. tax reform plans. There is a considerable difference between the Senate and the House on how to proceed, and if no clear path evolves, I expect a further pullback in equities. The Senate’s proposed delay of the tax cut until 2019 is definitely not what President Trump is looking for, so it remains to be seen whether he can push Republicans to unify when he returns from his Asia tour.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Equity markets looking increasingly unhinged





It should be all good news for global equity markets at present as the global recovery continues to tick along nicely. So far profits are up and the market has been bullish, especially around developed labour markets. However, have we overextended at present? If you've been watching some of the major indexes you might very well think that. Recent trends in global markets have so far been bearish which is a surprise, but when you consider the level of uncertainty and the fact that rates are on the move higher it does make for some interesting thoughts and trading ideas. So far yields are looking like they're increasing in the long run, which bodes well for investors looking to move out of equities.



The S&P 500 has come up short of the magical 2600 mark at present, this despite the recent news off the wire about NAFTA renegotiations being positive. PPI was also positive today, but once again markets were not having a bar of it, and looked to sell off. So far the S&P 500 has held up on support around 2580 where it has managed to sit above over the last few days, the 20 day moving average is also providing some additional support. Further movements lower are likely to hit key levels of support at 2565 and 2545. Just looking at the daily movements, it's very hard to say if this is the time for a correction. Certainly, markets are feeling like one is overdue, and historically data says that is the case. The question here is when and how bad, but for now the bulls have the trend and market corrections are rare for the S&P 500.

A quick glance across the Atlantic at the UK equity market and it's a similar story, just this time the market is being dominated by politics and of course the Brexit debacle. Mark Carney must have been breathing a sigh of relief today as CPI was not as strong as the previous month at 3% y/y, thus taking the pressure of the needs for any further rate rises at this time. Markets, however, were not so interested as the FTSE 100 dropped on the news and continued to be weighed down by global sentiment around equity markets.



FTSE 100 traders will be looking to extend the trend lower if with the bears, but so far we've seen weaker and weaker candles which is a sign of caution from them. There is the possibility of the bulls swinging back into the market here and potentially pushing for resistance at 7436 and 7486 on the charts. If the bears do extend lower than the 200 day moving average, it will be key to watch here to see if traders respect it. With weaker candles that could be very much the case. Support levels below this can be found at 7377 and 7319 for the bears.


Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Data perdagangan Indonesia bulan Oktober menggembirakan




Optimisme terhadap ekonomi Indonesia sangat menguat pada hari Rabu dengan rilis surplus perdagangan sebesar $0.9 miliar di bulan Oktober. Karena Indonesia mencatat surplus selama tiga bulan berturut-turut hingga Oktober, maka sentimen terhadap ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara ini akan semakin baik. Impor melampaui estimasi pasar dengan peningkatan sebesar 23.33% dan menyiratkan bahwa konsumen terus berbelanja dan ekspor terus meningkat di level 18.39% sehingga mendukung potensi pertumbuhan PDB.

Pound bervariasi pasca laporan tenaga kerja Inggris

Trader tampak tidak yakin apakah harus menyerang atau mendukung Pound pada hari Rabu setelah laporan pemerintah menunjukkan bahwa tingkat penduduk bekerja Inggris tetap stabil di level terendah 42 tahun sebesar 4.3% di antara bulan Juli dan September.

Rata-rata upah melampaui estimasi pasar dengan menguat 2.2% namun masih jauh di bawah tingkat inflasi umum yaitu 3%. Kombinasi yang tidak menggembirakan antara kenaikan inflasi dan lambatnya pertumbuhan upah memperlemah daya beli konsumen sehingga pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris yang berbasis konsumen pun terancam terganggu. Poin penting dari laporan tenaga kerja hari ini adalah penurunan lapangan kerja hingga 14.000 yang di luar dugaan. Ini menyiratkan bahwa perlambatan momentum ekonomi mulai terefleksikan di pasar tenaga kerja. Positifnya, produktivitas meningkat ke 0.9% yang merupakan level terbaik sejak 2011.

Reaksi Pound bervariasi terhadap laporan ini dengan harga berkisar di 1.3160 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Dari sisi teknis, 1.3150 adalah level penting yang dapat menjadi support atau resistance. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah 1.3150 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju 1.3050 kemudian 1.3000. Di skenario alternatif, breakout intraday di atas 1.3230 dapat membuka jalan menuju 1.3280.



Dolar hadapi ketidakpastian

Hari perdagangan hari ini mungkin tidak menggembirakan untuk Dolar karena ketidakpastian tentang proposal reformasi pajak sangat mengganggu nilai tukar mata uang ini.

Dolar merosot tajam pada hari Selasa karena isu bahwa pemangkasan pajak korporat AS dapat tertunda menjadi bukti sensitivitas Dolar terhadap ekspektasi proposal reformasi pajak AS. Bulls saat ini kekurangan inspirasi untuk bergerak, namun bisa mendapat motivasi Rabu ini apabila inflasi konsumen dan penjualan ritel AS melampaui ekspektasi. Peningkatan inflasi dan penjualan ritel dapat mengangkat optimisme terhadap ekonomi AS dan memperkuat Dolar.

Dari sudut pandang teknis, Indeks Dolar tergelincir di hari Selasa menuju 93.80. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah support 94.00 dapat memicu penurunan lebih lanjut menuju 93.50. Dalam skenario alternatif, bulls perlu mendorong harga kembali melampaui 94.50 agar dapat kembali berkuasa.

Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas menguat di hari Selasa karena Dolar AS yang rentan melemah dan pasar saham yang sedang lesu. Nuansa waspada karena ketidakpastian terkait prospek reformasi pajak AS dapat membuat investor kembali melirik aset safe haven dan mengangkat harga emas. Dari sudut pandang teknis, harga telah melampaui level resistance$1280. Jika bulls dapat mempertahankan kendali di atas level ini, maka level target berikutnya adalah $1289 dan $1300. Sebaliknya, jika bulls gagal memegang kendali di atas $1280 maka akan memicu penurunan menuju $1267.





Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Bank Indonesia pertahankan suku bunga 4,25%





Reaksi pasar finansial Indonesia relatif tidak bersemangat di hari Kamis setelah Bank Indonesia mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di level 4,25%.

Pilihan ini menyoroti upaya BI untuk mempertahankan stabilitas finansial menjelang keputusan suku bunga AS yang diprediksi ditingkatkan di bulan Desember. Poin penting dari rapat ini adalah revisi proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2017 menjadi 5,1%. Konsumsi Indonesia berpotensi menguat di kuartal terakhir 2017 dan optimisme terhadap ekonomi global pun meningkat, sehingga menarik untuk dicermati apakah target 5,1% akan berhasil dicapai.

IHK lemah, Dolar tertekan

Para penjual segera menyerang Dolar di hari Rabu setelah harga konsumen AS hanya meningkat sedikit yaitu 0,1% di bulan Oktober. Ini adalah kenaikan terendah dalam tiga bulan terakhir.

Meskipun kenaikan harga konsumen sebesar 0,1% ini sesuai dengan ekspektasi pasar, ini membuktikan bahwa inflasi di Amerika Serikat tetap sangat rendah. Federal Reserve diperkirakan akan meningkatkan suku bunga di bulan Desember, namun rencana kenaikan suku bunga setelah 2017 masih menjadi tanda tanya karena masalah rendahnya inflasi. Dari sisi positif, penjualan ritel AS meningkat di luar dugaan sebesar 0,2% di bulan Oktober sehingga dapat memperbaiki sentimen terhadap ekonomi AS dan mendukung Dolar yang melemah.

Dari sudut pandang teknis, Indeks Dolar merosot menuju 93,40 setelah rilis data ini. Level 94,00 dapat berubah menjadi resistance dinamis yang dapat memicu penurunan lebih lanjut menuju 93,50 dan 93,00. Breakout tegas di atas 94,50 mengancam situasi bearish saat ini.

Pound menguat pasca rilis penjualan ritel

Pound sedikit menguat pada Kamis pagi karena penjualan ritel Inggris meningkat di bulan Oktober.

Penjualan ritel Inggris naik 0,3% MoM di bulan Oktober namun turun -0,3% YoY karena kenaikan inflasi dan pertumbuhan upah yang lambat merusak daya beli konsumen. Pertumbuhan upah masih kesulitan untuk mengejar inflasi sehingga keberlangsungan pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris yang berbasis konsumen pun akan menjadi masalah.

Saham global tetap tertekan

Wall Street mencatat penurunan keempat dalam lima hari perdagangan terakhir di hari Rabu dan merosot ke level terendah tiga pekan. S&P 500 ditutup 1,25% di bawah level rekor tertinggi pada 7 November. Aksi jual di hari Rabu didorong oleh sektor energi dan konsumen non-siklikal yang melemah 1,1% dan 1% sedangkan sektor telekomunikasi dan keuangan berhasil bertahan di teritori positif.

Sorotan komoditas - Emas

Emas mencari arah di hari Kamis dan harga berada di bawah level resistance $1280. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah $1280 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju $1267. Sebaliknya, breakout di atas $1280 dapat membuka pintu menuju $1289 dan kemudian $1300.





Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

European currencies dip on German politics





The Euro had a pause for concern in the evening trading session as the coalition talks in Germany fell apart leading to a political crisis in Germany. This now presents the toughest challenge Angela Merkel has felt in over 12 years of being at the top, however, she seems somewhat composed and is keen to send the parties back to the polls in order to get a majority government. So far though polls have predicted that anti immigrant parties are likely to gain more momentum than the traditional centrist parties which have dominated German politics in recent decades. And for Brexit this will certainly put pressure on the British government now that Merkel is currently off dealing with her political crisis, rather than being focused on there's. For some time many had expected her to get involved and sort out the crisis, but that's certainly not going to be the case and £40 billion bill the UK is offering to settle the bill is being put to the table.

The British governments ability to settle the bills is likely to be a game of brinkmanship and the EU does not have to blink at all. What could well be worth their time is to let it play out internally as right now a number of backbencher Tories are upset over the size of the number and could in theory force a leadership vote. While plausible I do believe that the government is likely to try and push it all through as rapidly as possible in order to get backing from business. Either way the pound is likely to encounter some rough waters over the course of this week as a result.



On the charts the GBPUSD continues to be inching its way higher on the charts, and thus far it's been on the back of some USD weakness which has been apparent. However, the recent moves higher have shown an abrupt weakness in bullish potential and we could see bears come back into the market to tighten things up before breaking out. Resistance levels for the GBPUSD can be found at 1.3256 and 1.3339, but the band in between this is likely to see a lot of action. In the event that markets turned south they would have a tough time battling the 100 day moving average which has been acting as dynamic support, and also support levels at 1.3130 and 1.3059. A breakthrough of these support levels could send the pound tumbling though.



The EURUSD is also looking weaker after the political news out today, and for me the focus will be playing of the political news out of Germany going forward. Key resistance levels can be found at 1.1824 and 1.1891. Support levels can also be found at 1.1719 and 1.1621, with the trend looking all the more bearish as of late. Certainly also for the euro the USD weakness will be a primary factor, but so far it' s a mixed bag.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Global stocks rally, Sterling on standby ahead of UK budget




The healthy combination of rising corporate profits, strong global growth and cautious optimism over U.S. corporate tax cuts, simply reinvigorated global equity bulls on Tuesday – boosting stocks across the globe.

Asian shares headed for a record close during early trading on Wednesday, following Wall Street’s robust gains overnight. European markets concluded mostly higher on Tuesday and may open on a positive note today as market players continue to shrug off the political uncertainty in Europe. With U.S. stock indexes marching to record highs yesterday as technology and health stocks rallied, it will be interesting to see if the upside momentum is maintained this afternoon.

Chancellor Philip Hammond in the spotlight

Chancellor Philip Hammond will be in the limelight today as he presents the U.K. budget statement to the House of Commons. While Hammond’s speech may revolve around managing the housing crisis, investors will be paying attention to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) which is expected to trim Britain’s GDP growth forecasts. If the overall tone of the budget statement is gloomy and Brexit concerns making an appearance, Sterling is likely to find itself under renewed selling pressure.

Taking a look at the technical outlook, the GBPUSD has found light support at 1.3230. An intraday breakout above 1.3250 could encourage a further incline towards 1.3300. Alternatively, a failure for prices to keep above 1.3230 may encourage a decline to 1.3150.



Dollar lower ahead of FOMC minutes

The Greenback weakened against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, after Yellen’s cautious remarks reinforced market expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at a gradual pace.

Yellen cautioned that raising interest rates too quickly could obstruct the Feds efforts to reach the golden 2% target and reiterated the fact that this year’s low U.S. inflation remained a mystery. With the outgoing Fed chair uncertain over the stubbornly low inflation being transitory, investors were left pondering over how this could influence the central bank’s monetary policy strategy in 2018.

Much attention will be directed towards the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting this evening which should offer further clues on the central bank’s outlook future interest rate increases. With markets widely expecting U.S. interest rates to be increased in December, investors are likely to closely scrutinize the minutes for fresh insight into monetary policy beyond 2017.

The Dollar could receive a boost if the minutes are presented with a hawkish touch, alternatively, if the minutes express concerns over low inflation and fail to bring anything new to the table, sellers may make a move. From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is coming under pressure on the daily charts with resistance found at 94.00. Sustained weakness below this level may encourage a further decline towards 93.50. Alternatively, a breach back above 94.15 puts this current bearish setup at risk, with the next level of interest at 94.50.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

IHSG menguat, USD tertekan





Kombinasi menguntungkan antara kenaikan profit korporat, pertumbuhan global yang pesat, dan optimisme tentang pemangkasan pajak korporat AS memperkuat saham global pada hari Selasa sehingga bursa saham di seluruh dunia pun berkibar.

Saham Asia bergerak menuju rekor penutupan sejak awal perdagangan hari Rabu karena Wall Street meningkat pada malam sebelumnya. Di Indonesia, bursa saham menguat karena membaiknya selera risiko. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan meningkat 0.63% dan ditutup pada 6069.785. Sentimen terhadap ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara ini positif karena fundamental ekonomi semakin baik. Karenanya, IHSG dan Rupiah sepertinya akan tetap terdukung. Terkait prospek forex, Rupiah menguat terhadap Dolar AS di hari Rabu. USDIDR diperdagangkan menuju 13520. Peningkatan optimisme terkait prospek ekonomi Indonesia berpotensi terus memperkuat Rupiah.

Emas mencari arah

Emas menguat pada sesi perdagangan hari Rabu mendekati $1283 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan.

Aksi harga yang naik turun tajam dalam beberapa hari terakhir menjadi gambaran dahsyatnya tarik menarik antara bulls dan bears. Walau ketidakpastian politik di Eropa dapat membuat pasar tertarik mencari aman, namun sepertinya investor emas lebih khawatir dengan nilai Dolar.

Karena emas sangat terpengaruh oleh nilai Dolar, kecenderungan dalam notulen rapat FOMC yang akan dirilis Rabu ini dapat memegang peran penting dalam harga emas pekan ini. Emas dapat mengalami tekanan jual lagi apabila notulen FOMC bernada hawkish. Kejutan dovish dapat mengangkat harga emas.

Dari perspektif teknis, harga saat ini berkisar di $1280 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah $1280 dapat menyebabkan depresiasi lebih lanjut menuju $1267.



Dollar melemah menjelang rilis notulen rapat FOMC

USD melemah terhadap sejumlah mata uang pada hari Selasa setelah pernyataan Yellen yang bernada waspada memperkuat ekspektasi pasar tentang peningkatan suku bunga Fed dengan laju yang bertahap.

Yellen memperingatkan bahwa kenaikan suku bunga yang terlalu drastis dapat mengganggu upaya Fed untuk mencapai target 2% dan menekankan kembali fakta bahwa alasan rendahnya inflasi AS tahun ini masih belum diketahui. Ketua Dewan Gubernur Fed yang akan segera turun jabatan ini tidak yakin apakah inflasi AS yang terus menerus rendah hanya bersifat sementara atau berkelanjutan. Investor perlu memikirkan bagaimana hal ini akan memengaruhi strategi kebijakan moneter Fed di tahun 2018.

Perhatian akan tertuju pada notulen rapat FOMC terkini di hari Rabu yang mungkin memuat isyarat mengena prospek kenaikan suku bunga Fed di masa mendatang. Pasar secara umum telah memperkirakan bahwa suku bunga AS akan ditingkatkan Desember ini. Investor sepertinya akan meneliti notulen ini untuk mencari wawasan baru mengenai kebijakan moneter AS setelah 2017.

Dari sudut pandang teknikal, Indeks Dolar tertekan di grafik harian dan resistanceterlihat di 94.00. Penurunan berkelanjutan di bawah level ini dapat memicu penurunan lebih lanjut menuju 93.50. Pada skenario alternatif, harga yang melintas di atas 94.15 akan mengancam kondisi bearish saat ini dengan level target berikutnya di 94.50.



Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

 

Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Stocks drop, currencies range bound & bitcoin eyes $10,000




Most Asian indices edged lower on Tuesday, following a mixed session on Wall Street yesterday. China is becoming a key market to watch, as it’s leading the direction for other markets across Asia. Rising bond yields are threatening corporate profit margins for the second largest economy; meanwhile Chinese authorities are helping to drag equities lower, after sending alarming messages about a potential bubble being created in large-cap firms. Given that China continues to focus on quality rather than quantity growth, it’s not surprising to witness action of this nature from the Chinese government in an attempt to mitigate bubbles in asset prices. However, such actions may have a negative impact on sentiments that could spread across other Asian markets.

U.S. equity traders are in a wait-and-see mode. President Trump will meet senators today at their weekly policy lunch, to ensure that Republicans are on the same page regarding the tax system overhaul. I firmly believe that U.S. legislative tax reforms are strongly “priced in” the U.S. markets, thus if significant tax reforms do not pass, I expect a substantial decline in major indices, particularly in small caps. Given that the effective tax rate currently stands at around 27%, taxes should be brought below 25% to be effective. Republican Senator Ron Johnson said he would vote against the bill unless his concerns about the legislation are resolved. Given that other Republican Senators share Johnson worries on deficit implications, passing the bill does not seem to be a done deal yet.

Currency markets were trading in narrow ranges early Tuesday, as investors brace for UK bank stress test results, BoE’s Carney Speech and the Fed speech, including Powell’s Congressional address. On the data front, the U.S. Goods Trade Balance, and the Housing Price Index are likely to have minimal impact on the USD.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin scored a new record high of $9,886 in an attempt to break above the critical $10,000 threshold. Bitcoin has become a very hot topic and many fund managers have raised the price target for the cryptocurrency. Yesterday, former Fortress hedge fund manager Michael Novogratz commented on CNBC, that bitcoin could be at $40,000 by the end of 2018 and he expects that total market capitalization could reach $2 trillion, from $309 billion currently. I think that we will hear more skyrocket predictions, but few will provide an economic metric that supports their valuations. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts when Bitcoin breaks above $10,000.




Source : http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis