Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

EURUSD H4 Price Action and Technical Outlook

The EURUSD, commonly known as "Fiber," is the most actively traded currency pair in the forex market, representing the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar. It serves as a barometer for global economic strength, monetary policies, and market sentiment due to its high liquidity and correlation with major economic indicators.
Today, the EUR/USD is navigating a mix of fundamental drivers, including the German CPI release, which reflects inflationary pressures in the Eurozone, and low liquidity caused by the Italian Epiphany holiday, which could lead to irregular volatility. While stronger-than-expected German CPI data could support the Euro by bolstering expectations for further European Central Bank tightening, traders are also closely monitoring US PMI reports and remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook for insights into future US interest rate policies. These events could either amplify the USD's strength or weaken it, depending on their outcomes, making the EURUSD’s price highly sensitive to today’s market developments.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The EURUSD H4 chart indicates a clear recovery from a bearish trend, as shown by the Fibonacci retracement levels and the Ichimoku Cloud. The price reversed sharply after touching the 1.000 Fibonacci level and has since recorded several bullish candles. This rally brought the EUR-USD pair up to the 0.786 Fib level, a key resistance point. The opening candles of the current session have been red, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation phase. Traders should closely watch whether the price can break above the 0.786 Fib resistance, signaling continuation of the bullish trend, or if it retreats further. The Ichimoku Cloud indicates neutral-to-bearish sentiment as the price remains under the cloud, reflecting resistance at higher levels. However, the RSI is climbing from oversold levels and currently hovers around 38.6, indicating improving bullish momentum. While the near-term price action shows hesitation, breaking through the resistance could confirm bullish continuation. Conversely, failure to hold above the 0.786 Fib level could lead to a bearish reversal.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

USDNZD H4 Technical Analysis Overview

The USDNZD forex pair, affectionately known as the "Kiwi Dollar," represents the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar. Today, USD/NZD is shaped by strong US economic indicators, including an ISM Services PMI rising to 53.5 from 52.1 and a slight decline in JOLTS Job Openings to 7.73M from 7.74M. Additionally, the New Zealand GDT Price Index has decreased by 2.8%, alongside the upcoming US 10-year Bond Auction yielding 4.24%, up from 2.7%. These fundamental factors suggest potential volatility in the USD NZD pair, aligning with broader USD-NZD daily chart technical and fundamental analysis trends that highlight the influence of key economic data on currency movements.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the uploaded USDNZD H4 chart, the price line has recently broken below the Ichimoku cloud, a critical signal in USDNZD price action strategies, indicating a possible bearish trend. The MACD indicator reinforces this bearish potential, suggesting that the current bullish phase may be nearing its end. This technical setup, combined with today's fundamental news, underscores a pivotal moment for traders focusing on USD/NZD daily chart technical and fundamental analysis, as similar patterns may impact the broader forex market dynamics.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

USD/JPY Forecast: Breaking Down the H4 Ascending Channel

The USD/JPY currency pair, often referred to as "The Ninja," is one of the most traded pairs in the forex market, combining the world's largest economy with one of the most influential Asian markets. As a haven currency, the Japanese yen often reacts to risk sentiment, while the U.S. dollar is influenced by global economic conditions and monetary policies. This dynamic creates a highly liquid and volatile trading pair that is a favorite for forex traders globally.

Today's USD/JPY fundamental overview is shaped by critical economic releases. On the JPY side, labor cash earnings and household confidence data could signal the robustness of consumer spending in Japan, which influences monetary policy. Higher earnings and strong confidence data could strengthen the yen, reflecting improved domestic conditions. Conversely, on the USD side, the ADP employment report, jobless claims, and crude oil inventory data will highlight the health of the U.S. labor market and economic demand. Additionally, speeches by Federal Reserve members may provide insights into future monetary policy, potentially swaying the U.S. dollar. A stronger-than-expected ADP report or hawkish Fed commentary may bolster the dollar, tipping the balance in favor of USD bulls.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The USD/JPY H4 chart reveals a clear ascending channel, with the Ninja’s price action trading near the mid-point of this channel. The resistance at 158.29 appears strong, while support around 156.59 underpins the lower boundary of the channel. The MACD indicator shows a slight bullish momentum, with the signal line remaining above the zero line, suggesting a continuation of the USDJPY bullish bias. However, the histogram reflects some waning strength, indicating potential consolidation in the short term. Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI is hovering near the overbought zone at 63.14, signaling that bullish momentum may be nearing exhaustion. This could lead to a short-term pullback towards the support level before resuming the uptrend.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

Price Action Insights for EURUSD Daily Chart

The EURUSD, commonly referred to as "Fiber," is one of the most traded currency pairs globally, representing the euro against the US dollar. As of today, the market is particularly sensitive to incoming data, including Germany's industrial production figures and the European Central Bank's economic bulletin. On the US side, upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve officials and job cut announcements will also influence the EUR-USD pair. German industrial production and foreign trade data, both due today, are key as they act as leading indicators for Eurozone economic health. Simultaneously, Federal Reserve speeches will shape expectations for US monetary policy. If German data surprises positively or ECB officials adopt a hawkish tone, the euro might gain; however, a more hawkish Federal Reserve could strengthen the dollar, applying downward pressure on EUR/USD.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
In the H4 chart, the EUR USD is in a bearish trend, characterized by a descending trendline and bearish candles. However, recent price action shows two bullish candles attempting to break the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0319. The Ichimoku Cloud indicates the price is below the cloud, suggesting resistance, though it appears to be consolidating near the Fibonacci level. The MACD histogram displays increasing bullish momentum, and the MACD lines are converging, hinting at a potential reversal. Still, the overall bearish trend and the strong resistance posed by the Fibonacci retracement level suggest caution for bullish trades.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

Cable Under Pressure: GBPUSD H4 Outlook

The GBPUSD forex pair, commonly referred to as "Cable," represents the exchange rate between the British Pound and the US Dollar. Known for its historical importance and volatility, it is a favored instrument for forex traders worldwide. For today’s GBP/USD fundamental overview the market eagerly awaits crucial U.S. economic indicators, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), the Unemployment Rate, and Consumer Sentiment data from the University of Michigan, all of which are key drivers for USD valuation. Meanwhile, traders also consider the release of the UK’s NIESR GDP estimate, which provides insights into the health of the British economy.
The U.S. NFP data is a cornerstone of forex market volatility, with higher-than-expected job creation typically boosting the USD. Simultaneously, a drop in the unemployment rate would reinforce USD strength, whereas weaker numbers could pressure the currency. On the other hand, stronger-than-forecast NIESR GDP data for the UK could lend support to the Pound. Market participants should monitor these releases closely, as they are likely to trigger sharp moves in the GBPUSD forecast today.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
In the GBPUSD H4 chart, the pair’s price action is confined within a well-defined descending channel, signaling the Cable’s bearish bias. The Parabolic SAR dots are placed above the price candles, reinforcing the downward momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI is hovering around 33, suggesting the pair is approaching oversold territory but hasn’t confirmed a reversal yet. Combined, these indicators suggest that while the bearish momentum persists, traders should be cautious of potential rebounds from the channel's lower boundary. The recent rejection from this level indicates a possible short-term bounce.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

Fundamental and Technical Forecast for USDCHF

The USDCHF currency pair, often referred to by its nickname "Swissie," represents the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc. Known for its safe-haven appeal, the Swiss Franc is often influenced by global economic events, while the US Dollar reflects the performance of the largest economy in the world. Today, the US Treasury Monthly Budget release is expected to shed light on the federal government's income versus expenditure trends, which could have significant implications for the USD. On the CHF side, SECO's Consumer Confidence Index will provide insight into Swiss economic optimism, a critical factor driving the Franc's strength. If the US report surprises with a better-than-expected surplus and Swiss consumer confidence lags, USDCHF could see further bullish momentum.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The USDCHF H4 chart analysis reveals that the pair is in a bullish trend, as the price continues to trade above the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting strong support levels. While the price touched the 0 Fibonacci retracement level, it recently retraced slightly, forming three red bearish candles. However, the candles remain above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which acts as immediate support. The MACD and histogram still signal bullish momentum, but a slight weakening of the MACD histogram suggests potential consolidation or a minor retracement before another bullish attempt. If the price sustains above the Ichimoku cloud and 0.236 Fib level, the bullish trend could resume towards higher Fibonacci levels.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

BTC/USD Price Action Forecast for H4 Chart

Bitcoin, often nicknamed "Digital Gold," is paired with the US Dollar (BTCUSD), creating one of the most watched forex and cryptocurrency trading pairs in global markets. BTCUSD represents the exchange rate between the decentralized cryptocurrency Bitcoin and the fiat USD, showcasing its susceptibility to both crypto-specific developments and USD macroeconomic trends. Today, key USD-related events such as the Producer Price Index (PPI), NFIB business sentiment, and a speech by a Federal Reserve member will likely influence market dynamics. A higher-than-expected PPI indicates inflationary pressure, which could strengthen the USD and potentially dampen BTCUSD's bullish movements. Conversely, dovish signals from Federal Reserve commentary could support Bitcoin's bullish recovery.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The BTC USD H4 chart indicates significant bullish momentum as recent candles sharply increased, breaking through key resistance levels. Initially moving below the Ichimoku Cloud, the BTC/USD price has now pierced the lower boundary and is challenging the upper boundary near the Fib 0.5 retracement level. The Fib 0.5 level aligns with the cloud's top line, creating a critical resistance zone. Concurrently, the MACD indicator and histogram show bullish crossovers, signaling increasing bullish momentum. If BTC-USD manages to close above this confluence zone, it could aim for higher Fibonacci levels. However, failure to break above this level may result in consolidation or a retracement.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

EURUSD Forecast: CPI Impact and Technical Levels

The EUR/USD forex pair, often nicknamed "Fiber," is one of the most heavily traded currency pairs globally, representing the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar. Known for its liquidity and volatility, this pair’s forecast reflects economic and monetary policy dynamics in the Eurozone and the United States.

For today’s EURUSD fundamental overview, the market’s attention is focused on U.S. inflation data, including the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI metrics, which are pivotal indicators of economic health and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Additionally, speeches by prominent Federal Reserve officials, including Richmond and Minneapolis Fed Presidents, could provide further clues regarding the Fed's interest rate strategy. On the Eurozone side, wholesale price index figures and manufacturing production updates are expected to have a relatively moderate impact, with the focus remaining on the broader inflationary trends. As traders assess these data points, the EURUSD prices may see heightened volatility, especially if the inflation data outperforms or underperforms forecasts.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The H4 chart of EURUSD indicates an ongoing recovery from recent lows, with the pair’s price action attempting to breach the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Bands show widening, which often signals increasing volatility. The Fiber is trading near the middle and upper bands, suggesting its bullish trend may continue if resistance levels are broken.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator shows bullish divergence, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line and histogram bars turning positive. This setup further confirms the likelihood of upward momentum. However, a rejection from the current resistance zone could trigger a reversal to test the middle or lower Bollinger Band. Overall, traders should monitor key resistance at 1.0320 and support near 1.0190 for directional cues.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.


Capitalcore

 

GBPUSD H4 Technical Indicators and Trends

The GBPUSD, often referred to by its nickname "Cable," is one of the most actively traded currency pairs in the forex market. It represents the exchange rate between the British Pound (GBP) and the United States Dollar (USD). Today’s upcoming news on UK RICS House Price Balance and UK GDP data, coupled with key USD figures like retail sales and jobless claims, can significantly influence the pair's price movements. A positive GDP and RICS figure may signal economic resilience in the UK, boosting GBP strength, while stronger-than-expected US retail sales or a hawkish stance from the Fed President could drive USD gains. These opposing fundamentals suggest potential volatility, with traders keeping a close eye on the economic calendar.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From the uploaded H4 GBPUSD chart, the price action indicates a tentative bullish trend recovery but remains below the Ichimoku cloud and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.22668. The pair attempted to break this level but faced strong resistance, failing to maintain momentum above it. Indicators such as the MACD and histogram show divergence, with the histogram moving closer to the zero line but not yet signaling a confirmed reversal. The Ichimoku cloud acts as dynamic resistance, suggesting further consolidation or a potential retest of lower support levels before a decisive breakout occurs.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

SILVERUSD Price Action and Resistance Levels Analysis

The SILVER/USD pair, also known as XAG/USD, represents the value of silver in terms of US dollars. Silver, often referred to as "the poor man's gold," is a widely traded precious metal that serves as both a safe-haven asset and an industrial commodity. Trading this pair provides valuable insights into the global economic outlook, as its price is influenced by factors such as inflation, interest rates, and industrial demand. Today’s key USD-related news, including Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts data, could indirectly impact SILVERUSD. Strong results could strengthen the USD, creating downward pressure on silver prices. Additionally, the upcoming Federal Reserve reports on Capacity Utilization and Factory Output may provide further market signals. A stronger-than-expected USD performance could dampen silver’s appeal as a hedge against currency depreciation. However, persistent market uncertainty and potential economic slowdowns maintain silver's safe-haven status, suggesting a balanced outlook for the pair in the short term.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the H4 chart, SILVER/USD has been in a bullish trend but is now showing signs of a potential reversal. The last two bearish candles suggest reduced buying momentum, while the MACD indicator shows weakening bullish momentum with the histogram approaching neutral levels. Despite this, the price remains above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating that the uptrend may still hold as support levels remain intact. The thickening cloud provides a strong support zone below the current price. Traders should closely watch for confirmation of a bearish reversal or a continuation of the uptrend, depending on whether the MACD crosses into bearish territory and price action breaks below the cloud.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

EURUSD H4 Price Action Insights

The EUR USD currency pair, also known as "Fiber," represents the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar and is the most traded currency pair in the forex market. As a barometer of the Eurozone and US economies, it often reacts to macroeconomic data and geopolitical events. Today, the Eurozone's Producer Price Index (PPI) and insights from the World Economic Forum (WEF) and Eurogroup discussions could provide key economic clues. The PPI’s influence on inflation and remarks from influential figures at Davos may steer the Euro's direction. On the other side, US markets observe Martin Luther King Jr. Day, signaling low liquidity and irregular volatility for the Dollar.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The uploaded EUR/USD H4 chart highlights a prevailing bearish trend, with four bearish candles in the last six sessions. Despite the bearish momentum, recent bullish candles suggest a potential attempt to reverse. The EUR-USD price is currently in the middle of the Ichimoku cloud, attempting to break above it. The flat upper cloud line reflects indecisiveness, often an indication of consolidation. The MACD indicator shows bullish momentum, with the histogram turning positive and MACD lines crossing upward. However, the broader trend remains bearish, and a decisive break above the cloud will be needed for confirmation of a trend reversal.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

GBPCAD Forex Pair Overview

The GBPCAD currency pair represents the exchange rate between the British Pound (GBP) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD), often referred to as "Loonie" for the CAD. It is an essential currency pair in the forex market, reflecting the economic conditions of both the United Kingdom and Canada. The pair is sensitive to geopolitical events, oil price fluctuations (since Canada is a major oil exporter), and economic data releases from both nations.
Today's economic data will likely impact the GBPCAD pair, as both the UK and Canadian economies release key indicators. The GBP is set to release the Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index, and Unemployment Rate, which are expected to show a slight uptick in earnings and stable employment. These figures should support the strength of the Pound in the short term. On the other hand, the CAD will publish its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with the m/m change expected to show deflationary pressures (-0.7% vs 0.0% forecast). A weaker CPI might indicate cooling inflation in Canada, potentially weakening the Loonie. As such, GBPCAD could see volatility depending on these releases, with traders paying close attention to inflation data from Canada and employment figures from the UK.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Looking at the GBPCAD H4 chart, the price has recently started a bullish move and is currently touching the Ichimoku Cloud. However, there are signs that the bullish momentum may be fading. The Ichimoku Cloud is currently red, indicating that the market is in a bearish phase, and this could reverse the recent upward movement. The MACD is showing negative divergence, as the price is rising while the indicator is trending lower, a typical sign of weakening bullish momentum. This divergence suggests that the market could be nearing a peak and might reverse into a bearish phase. Traders should be cautious, as the price's interaction with the cloud could signal the start of a potential bearish trend.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

GOLD Price Action and Technical Insights for H4

GOLD USD, also known as "XAU/USD," is a popular currency pair that reflects the exchange rate between Gold and the US Dollar. Known for its role as a safe-haven asset, Gold is sensitive to both economic data and geopolitical events. Today’s USD news, including weekly jobless claims and crude oil inventory data, will be pivotal. Lower-than-expected unemployment claims could strengthen the USD, potentially pressuring Gold. Meanwhile, discussions at the World Economic Forum could drive significant volatility. With market sentiment hinging on these developments, traders are closely monitoring GOLD/USD price movements for potential opportunities.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The GOLDUSD price on the H4 chart remains in a bullish trend, trading within a clearly defined ascending channel. The price is currently above the Ichimoku Cloud, a strong indication of sustained bullish momentum. Additionally, the Gold price has successfully broken above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, signaling the potential for further upside toward the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $2,771.96. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with the MACD line above the signal line and a positive histogram showing strengthening momentum. The channel's structure, with consistent higher highs and higher lows, emphasizes the strength of the current trend. Traders should watch for further price consolidation above the cloud and Fibonacci levels to confirm continued bullish movement.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

USDJPY Fundamental and Technical Overview Today

The USD/JPY currency pair, often referred to as "The Ninja," represents the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. As a major currency pair, USDJPY is influenced heavily by economic fundamentals and monetary policies from both the United States and Japan. Today’s news agenda highlights key Japanese CPI data and PMI indicators, alongside critical US PMI releases and housing market updates. The Japanese CPI data, measuring inflation trends, and PMI figures, indicating manufacturing activity, are central to Yen volatility. Simultaneously, US PMI updates and housing data could influence the dollar by reflecting the underlying economic strength. A higher-than-expected CPI for Japan could strengthen the Yen, while robust US PMI figures might bolster the dollar, creating potential turbulence for USD JPY movements.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The USDJPY price action on the H4 chart exhibits a persistent bearish trend, with the pair recently breaking below the Ichimoku cloud—indicating sustained downward momentum. Currently, the price is trading below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting further potential downside movement toward the 1.0 Fib level. RSI readings hover near oversold territory but have yet to confirm a reversal. The descending trendline above the price action reflects strong bearish pressure, and the RSI's bearish divergence supports the case for continued selling. Unless there’s a catalyst from today’s news, USDJPY could test lower support zones, with 155.140 being a key level to monitor.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

EUR/USD H4 Chart Technical Outlook Today

The EUR/USD, often referred to as "Fiber," is the most traded currency pair globally, representing the Eurozone’s euro against the United States dollar. As a major forex pair, it reflects the economic interplay between the European Union and the United States, with its price action influenced heavily by macroeconomic data and monetary policy announcements. Today's focus is on key events, including a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde and business confidence reports from the Eurozone. Lagarde's remarks could provide valuable insights into the ECB's monetary policy trajectory, potentially signaling upcoming rate hikes, which would boost the euro. Additionally, German ifo Business Climate and Belgium NBB Confidence data will gauge sentiment within the Eurozone’s economy, with stronger-than-expected results likely to reinforce EUR strength. On the USD side, the New Home Sales report offers insights into the U.S. housing market, a critical economic barometer. Together, these events create a volatile environment for the EURUSD.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The EUR-USD H4 chart reveals a pivotal moment. The price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a bullish trend. However, the Senkou Span B line is starting to flatten, hinting at potential trend exhaustion. After testing and reacting to the resistance from the upward trendline, the EUR USD price is now correcting downward, aiming toward the support level at 1.04465. The MACD indicator shows weakening momentum, as its histogram begins to shrink and the signal line prepares for a possible bearish crossover. This correction may provide opportunities for re-entry on a dip near support levels.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

EURUSD Price Action Analysis Trading Strategies and Outlook

The EUR/USD, often referred to as the "Fiber," is the most traded currency pair in the forex market, representing the economies of the Eurozone and the United States. As the world's most liquid currency pair, it is highly sensitive to macroeconomic indicators and central bank policies. Today's fundamental outlook for EUR-USD is influenced by key U.S. data releases, including the Core PCE Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. If inflation comes in higher than forecast, it could strengthen the USD as it would increase the likelihood of further Fed tightening. Additionally, the U.S. Employment Cost Index will provide insight into labor costs, another key factor for inflation. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman's speech could also bring volatility if any hawkish remarks suggest further rate hikes. Personal income and spending data will be crucial in assessing consumer strength, with higher spending potentially reinforcing a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, the Chicago PMI will shed light on business activity. If today's U.S. economic indicators come in stronger than expected, the USD could gain momentum, pressuring EUR USD lower.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From a technical analysis perspective, the H4 EUR/USD chart shows a clear shift in trend dynamics. The Fiber pair had been in a strong uptrend (green trendline) but encountered resistance near the 1.0545 Fibonacci retracement level (23.6%), leading to a pullback. Currently, the price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud, which is still green but narrowing; indicating a weakening bullish momentum. The EUR USD price is hovering inside the cloud, testing the critical 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (1.0398), which is acting as an important support level. This area aligns with previous price reactions and the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, making it a potential turning point. If this support level holds, EURUSD might consolidate before a potential bullish attempt. However, a clear breakdown below the cloud would confirm a bearish shift. The RSI is currently around 43.46, reflecting weak momentum, and the downward slope suggests further bearish potential unless it finds support. The short-term outlook remains cautious, with 1.0398 as a key level to watch; a decisive break below could accelerate selling pressure towards 1.0311 (Fib 0.786), while a rebound could bring another test of 1.0457 resistance.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

USDJPY Price Action Signals Possible Bearish Continuation

The USD/JPY currency pair, often referred to as the "Ninja," represents the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, two of the world's most traded currencies. This forex pair is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, including monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Today, upcoming U.S. economic data, including JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders, will provide key insights into labor market strength and industrial activity, potentially impacting the dollar's direction. Additionally, FOMC members Bostic and Daly’s speeches could offer further clarity on future interest rate decisions, shaping market sentiment. Meanwhile, Japan's Monetary Base and 10-year bond auction may give traders clues about potential shifts in the Bank of Japan's stance, adding to the volatility of the USDJPY price action.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD/JPY H4 chart, the price remains within a well-defined bearish channel. A recent bullish breakout attempt failed to hold above the channel’s upper boundary, and the USD-JPY’s price has now re-entered the structure, positioning itself in the upper half but still below key resistance levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is struggling against a descending trendline (marked in red), indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is shifting downward, with the signal and MACD lines converging, suggesting an imminent bearish wave. Given these technical indicators, the most probable price action scenario involves continued downward movement, with the lower boundary of the bearish channel serving as the next key target.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore