Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

GBP/USD Price Declining after Encouraging UK Inflation Data Release


After yesterday's disappointing US inflation data, market participants were wary of UK inflation data. But they turned out to be more favorable.

→ Core CPI: actual = 5.1%, expected = 5.2%, past values = 5.1%
→ CPI: actual = 4.0%, expected = 4.1%, past values = 4.0%

Although in absolute comparison the inflation rate in the UK is significantly higher than in the USA, it is encouraging that over the month it shows a downward trend.

This eases pressure on the Bank of England in its tight monetary policy, and therefore the British pound fell in value against other currencies. In particular, the decline against the USD that began yesterday continued. Since yesterday's high, the price of GBP/USD has already decreased by approximately 1%.

The GBP/USD chart shows that:
→ the bears have broken the upward trajectory indicated by the blue lines;
→ the price develops within the descending channel (shown in red);
→ the price dropped below the level of 1.25730, which served as support since February 8.



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EURGBP continues to be suppressed during February. Will it rise again?


The first few weeks of 2024 have been laden with discussion, analysis and speculation regarding the forthcoming position of the US economy, largely due to the United States authorities having been the first to speak publicly about any monetary policy changes for the year ahead, as well as a considerable number of perspectives having been aired in the public domain regarding the US Federal Reserve Bank being the first central bank responsible for major currency to lower interest rates - something which actually did not happen.

While the expected announcement of planned reductions in interest rates did not materialise, there has been a lot of comparison between the US economy, and in particular, the US Dollar and Europe's majors, the British Pound and the Euro.

What about the monetary situation and economic outlook on the European side of the Atlantic? Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have followed similar, highly conservative monetary policies to that of the Federal Reserve over the past two years, and therefore, it would have been likely that perhaps equal expectations of reductions of interest would ensue if the Federal Reserve had actually proceeded down the route that many analysts expected.

Now, with the US rates remaining the same, could it be that the European and British central bankers will follow the same path? Judging by the result of the European Central Bank policy meeting, which took place on January 25, at which it was decided that rates would remain unchanged, this appears to be the case so far.

Looking at the performance of the EURGBP pair makes for interesting research, given that this chart pattern shows the sentiment within the European Union member states and Britain, all regions where major currencies are the sovereign tender, but without any comparison to the United States.

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AUD/USD Price Reaction to Labour Market News Provides Important Information for Analysis


Australia's unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 4.1% in January, while employment was little changed although analysts had expected around 25,000 new jobs, data released this morning showed.

It is believed that weak labour market data should prompt central bank officials to ease monetary policy, which is currently aimed at fighting inflation. According to Trading Economics, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates by about 40 basis points this year.

The first reaction to the news was the weakening of the Australian dollar (counting on the easing of the Central Bank's policy), but by the opening of the European session, the price of AUD/USD had recovered a significant part of the decline, which provides important food for thought.



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Ethereum Price Exceeds $2,800


The last time the ETH/USD price was at this level was in May 2022, which was the start of a massive drop of more than 65% in 1.5 months.

However, now the ETH/USD market is dominated by bullish sentiment, for the following reasons:

→ deployment of the Dencun update on the Ethereum network this month, which will open up new opportunities for users and developers;
→ expectations that this year, following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, applications for the launch of ETFs on Ethereum will be approved;
→ waiting for a traditional bull market after halving in the Bitcoin network.



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The US Currency Correcting after a Sharp Rise


An unexpected rise in the US consumer price index contributed to the resumption of the upward trend in the US dollar. Thus, experts predicted a monthly growth of 0.2% and an annual increase of 2.9%, in reality the monthly figure increased by 0.3%, and on an annualized basis this is 3.1%. Such data could not but please greenback buyers. After all, a change in the vector of monetary policy given the current indicators and the existing situation on the labour market in the United States is hardly possible in the near future.

USD/JPY

The rise in inflation in the US contributed to the return of the USD/JPY pair above 150.00. The price on the USD/JPY chart set a new yearly high at 150.80, after which it entered a consolidation phase between 150.80 and 150.20. If the upper limit of the specified range is broken, the price may resume growth in the direction of last year’s highs near 152.00. A move below 150.00 may contribute to the start of a larger downward correction in the direction of 148.00-146.00.

Today at 16:30 GMT+3, data on weekly applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be released. Also at the same time, the core US retail sales index for January will be published, as well as the manufacturing activity index from the Philadelphia Fed for February.



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Market Analysis: GBP/USD Attempts Recovery While EUR/GBP Gains Strength


GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 1.2535 zone. EUR/GBP is gaining pace and might extend its rally above the 0.8570 zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a recovery above the 1.2550 zone against the US Dollar.
• There is a key rising channel forming with support at 1.2570 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh increase above the 0.8535 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.8550 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2690 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2600 zone against the US Dollar.

A low was formed near 1.2535 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2690 swing high to the 1.2535 low. The pair settled above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2570.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2600 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2690 swing high to the 1.2535 low.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2650 level. If the RSI moves above 60 and the pair climbs above 1.2650, there could be another rally. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 1.2720 level or even 1.2750.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near 1.2570 and a key rising channel. If there is a downside break below the 1.2570 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2535 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2500. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2450 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

Gold Price Recovers from Year Lows


On Wednesday, the gold price XAU/USD set a year low due to news about inflation in the US, which “does not want” to decline to target levels.

As a result, market participants are revising their estimates regarding the price of gold with the prospect that the Fed's tight policy may last for a longer time, as well as taking into account yesterday's news:

→ Retail Core Sales in the US fell by 0.6%, although an increase of +0.2% was expected, a month ago = +0.4%.
→ the number of unemployment applications for the week remains relatively stable: actual = 212k, a week ago = 218k, a month ago = 202k.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

TSLA Share Price Rises Sharply amid News of Musk's Increased Stake in the Company


According to media reports, Elon Musk has increased his stake in Tesla by more than one and a half times — previously, the billionaire owned approximately 13% of the shares, now he owns 20.5% of Tesla. And earlier it was reported that Musk wants to increase his stake in Tesla to at least 25%.

At the same time, the TSLA share price rose sharply in yesterday's trading by more than 6%, while the S&P 500 stock market index increased by “only” +0.6%.

The TSLA stock chart today shows that:
→ the price has overcome the psychological mark of USD 200 per share;
→ the price has overcome the resistance level of USD 195 per share;
→ a bullish reversal pattern inverted head-and-shoulders has formed on the chart.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

Watch FXOpen's 12 - 16 February Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: US INFLATION, GBP/USD, GOLD, BITCOIN

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights..

• News about US Inflation Shake Markets #Inflation
• GBP/USD Price Declining after Encouraging UK Inflation Data Release #GBPUSD
• Gold Price Takes Hit While Crude Oil Price Extends Rally #Gold #Oil #CrudeOil
• Bitcoin Price Exceeds Psychological Level of $50k #Bitcoin #BTC

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

 

Is the UK really in a recession? Perhaps 2024 data will be different


It's Monday morning, and a deluge of doom and gloom relating to a recession having begun in the United Kingdom is abound.

Many mainstream news channels, along with analyses coming from a number of financial markets commentators, are outlining the potential contraction of the British economy should the central bank monetary policy remain hardline regarding interest rates.

There is a school of thought which warns investors that if the Bank of England does not decide to reduce interest rates, the British economy would perhaps become less competitive, and language such as causing a worsening of an existing recession could take place.

This is a very intriguing view, however, because the British Pound has been performing against other major currencies in a pattern that would suggest anything but a recession is even existent, let alone in full swing as is being touted by many reports.

During the course of this year so far, the British Pound has been gaining value significantly against the Euro, with the EURGBP pair having hit 0.850 at the bottom of the market on February 14, according to FXOpen charts, a far cry from its 0.869 value on January 1.

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GBP/JPY: Price Corrects from 8.5 Year High


According to CNN, the economies of the UK and Japan entered a technical recession last week as data showed a second consecutive quarterly decline in gross domestic product. And if in the UK the economic downturn can be associated with high inflation and the strict policies of the Bank of England, then in Japan the reason may be the population decline (which has been going on for 14 years in a row).

At the same time, the GBP/JPY chart shows that last week the rate exceeded 190 yen per pound for the first time since August 2015.

However:
→ the price is at the upper border of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ at the beginning of this week, the price of GBP/JPY is below the 190 yen level – and a false bullish breakout of the psychological level should be regarded as a bearish sign;
→ the MACD indicator indicates that demand forces are fading.



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Dollar Holds Steady after Producer Price Data Release


Market activity remains quite low at the beginning of the week, as American trading floors are closed to celebrate Presidents' Day. At the same time, investors continue to evaluate the data on manufacturing inflation published last Friday. Thus, the producer price index increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis and by 0.9% on an annual basis, which turned out to be higher than the predicted 0.1% and 0.6% and the December values of −0.1% and 1.0 %, respectively. In addition, trading participants paid attention to the publication of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, a leading indicator that predicts consumer spending: in February it increased from 79.0 points to 79.6 points, slightly lower than the estimated 80.0 points.

EUR/USD


Today, the European currency is holding near the 1.0780 mark against the backdrop of weak investor activity, while market participants evaluate Friday's publications from Europe and the United States. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0790, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.0815. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0732, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0695.

According to French statistics, the consumer price index, calculated according to EU standards, showed a decrease of 0.2% month on month, and an increase of 3.4% in annual terms. However, prices excluding tobacco products fell 0.3% month-on-month after rising 0.1%.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD shows that a new ascending channel has formed at the highs of two days of last week. Now the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to rise.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

Will investors focus on commodities in the advent of tomorrow's FOMC Minutes?


Just over a day remains before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the United States is set to release the minutes from its policy meeting, which was held at the end of January.

Ordinarily, announcements such as this are considered to be very important events in the global economic calendar, especially given that monetary policy, which the FOMC is responsible for administering, has been a very significant feature during these prolonged times of high-interest rates and stringent rulings by central banks across Western markets which have continued despite the high levels of inflation which ran into double figures being long since a thing of the past.

Perhaps the forthcoming publication of the minutes from the FOMC meeting, which took place on the final days of January, will not reveal any particular new matters of interest, largely because it is already widely understood that the US authorities will not be reducing interest rates in the foreseeable future, contrary to the understanding of many analysts and investors at the beginning of this year.

Given that Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell underscored the decision in a message at the beginning of February by saying that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates until it is certain that inflation is nearing the 2% target, it appears that any such minutes from a more recent meeting are not likely to affect the market that much.

In times during which the market expects a favourable approach by central bankers which will accelerate the economy, such as rate cuts which were anticipated for March and June this year, which do not materialise, it is often the case that attention turns to commodities.

Over the past few days, spot gold has been increasing in value.

On February 13, spot gold was at its lowest value this year, trading at $1,990.69 per troy ounce at the bottom end of the candlestick, according to FXOpen pricing. This low point reversed, and spot gold has made a remarkable return over the past week, entering the market this morning across European time zones at just over $2,021 per troy ounce.

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Starts Increase While USD/JPY Dips


EUR/USD gained bullish momentum above the 1.0800 resistance. USD/JPY is declining and showing bearish signs below the 150.40 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro remained in a bullish zone and climbed above the 1.0800 resistance zone.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0790 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 150.40 and 150.15 levels.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 150.15 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase above the 1.0745 zone. The Euro climbed above the 1.0800 resistance zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled above the 1.0800 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.0840 resistance. A high is formed near 1.0838 and the pair is now consolidating gains. There was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0761 swing low to the 1.0838 high.

Immediate support is near the 1.0800 level. The next major support is at 1.0790. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0790 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It coincides with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0761 swing low to the 1.0838 high.

If there is a downside break below 1.0790, the pair could drop toward the 1.0745 support. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0695, below which the pair could start a major decline.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 1.0840. The next major resistance is near the 1.0885 level. An upside break above 1.0885 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0950.

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NASDAQ Price Declining Ahead of NVDA Report


E-mini NASDAQ 100 futures fell below the psychological 17,500 level yesterday after trading above 18,000 on Friday.

The reason for the decline may be the fears of market participants ahead of the news release:
→ today after the close of the main trading session, Nvidia, the 5th largest company by capitalization, will publish its report;
→ today at 22:00 GMT+3, data from the Federal Reserve will be published, which will provide important information about the prospects for lowering the interest rate.

However, for now the decline looks like a correction.

The NASDAQ 100 chart shows that:
→ the price is within an uptrend (shown by a blue channel);
→ the level of 18000 acted as psychological resistance, as the price turned down after a small puncture;
→ the price fixes below the local ascending channel (shown by purple lines).

For now, the support level at 17,500 is keeping the price from falling further, but if the news is disappointing, the price may drop to the lower border of the channel — it is even possible that the bears will attempt a breakout.



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S&P 500 Inches Down After Long Rally as FOMC Minutes Approach


Aside from the performance of a national currency, a popular yardstick by which to gauge anticipation or reaction to an economic event or announcement is the market sentiment surrounding the top listed stocks on premier exchanges.

Today, as market participants around the world await the release of the minutes from the FOMC meeting that took place at the end of January, the S&P 500 index will begin trading slightly lower, an interesting movement considering that for the past three months, this premier index which includes the most prestigious and highly capitalised publicly listed companies listed on US exchanges, has been rallying.

Since the end of October, only a few minor dips have taken place. However, the tailing off which took place during the New York trading session yesterday places the S&P 500 under the 5,000 point mark when the market opens in New York today.

On February 19, the S&P 500 finished the trading day (Eastern Standard Time) at 5,008.7, according to FXOpen charts and will begin the trading session today at 4,973.6, which is its closing price yesterday.

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Ethereum Price Falls after Exceeding $3,000


We previously wrote about the reasons for the positive sentiment in the ETH/USD market.

Optimism was added by a post on X (Twitter) by Vitalik Buterin about the so-called Werkle trees. This technology, which should (according to the information in the roadmap) be introduced in the future, it includes the advantages of:
→ reduced requirements for validators;
→ faster network synchronization, and others.

The ETH/USD chart shows that:
→ ETH price is within a larger uptrend (shown in orange);
→ the price is within the February bullish trend (shown by blue lines);
→ the market is in an overbought state, judging by the bearish divergence on the MACD indicator.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

NVDA Share Price Soars 11% after Report


The signs of concern we wrote about yesterday have largely subsided. After three days of declines, the price of E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures bounced off the lower boundary of the channel (see yesterday's chart) and rose, led by NVDA stock.

Nvidia's quarterly report exceeded expectations:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 5.16, expected = USD 4.59;
→ gross revenue: actual = USD 22.10 billion, expected = USD 20.39 billion.

According to the head of the company:
→ Accelerated computing and generative AI have reached a tipping point.
→ Demand for computing is growing worldwide among companies, industries and governments.
→ The coming year will bring major new product cycles with exceptional innovations that will help propel the industry forward.

In post-market trading, NVDA's price rose 11% to over USD 740 per share. Thus, the price increase for NVDA since the beginning of 2024 is about 50%.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Showing Signs of Strength


Today news was published about the values of PMI indices for European economies. Data from France was encouraging:
→ French Flash Manufacturing PMI: actual = 46.8, expected = 43.5, a month ago = 43.1;
→ French Flash Services PMI: actual = 48.0, expected = 45.7, a month ago = 45.4.

Data from Germany were less optimistic, so the euro's rise was interrupted, but in the end the euro still rose in price on this news relative to other currencies.

For example, the price of EUR/JPY broke through the resistance level of 163 yen per euro — the euro rose to this level for the first time since November last year.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

Commodity Currencies Strengthen after the FOMC Minutes Publication


The fundamental data of recent trading sessions contributed to a slight strengthening of commodity and European currencies. Thus, the AUD/USD pair, after forming a bullish engulfing combination, managed to confidently gain a foothold above 0.6500. The pound/US dollar currency pair retested the support at 1.2540 and went above 1.2600, and greenback sellers in the US dollar/loonie pair are trying to break the support at 1.3500.

GBP/USD


The price of the pound on the GBP/USD chart has been trading for the third week in a rather narrow range of 1.2680-1.2540. Apparently, to enter new positions, investors need a more important foundation than the publication of the FOMC protocols. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, whose speech took place on Tuesday at 13:15 GMT+3, also failed to inspire market participants to make new entries.

Today at 12:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for the publication of data on the business activity index in the UK services sector for February. At 17:45 GMT+3, the business activity index (PMI) in the US services sector for the same period will be released. Also at 18:00 GMT+3, data on sales on the secondary housing market for January will be published, and at the very beginning of the American session, weekly figures on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be released.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.