Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

The NASDAQ Index Officially Enters Correction

The decline to current levels from the peak of the top of the year, set on July 19, exceeded 10%, which is generally considered to be the trigger for the start of the correction. According to statistics, this is the 70th official correction since the index was created in February 1971.

Despite the positive report from Microsoft, the bearish dynamics of the NASDAQ index were determined by the decline in shares of Tesla and Google, as well as the rise in the yield of long-term treasury bonds, which increased the cost of borrowing.


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The US Dollar Resumes Growth


Towards the end of the week, the American currency managed to resume medium-term growth. Reversal combinations among commodity currencies were broken, and the pound, yen and euro went to test new lows. The sharp strengthening of the US dollar is most likely caused by the worsening geopolitical situation in the Middle East, rising oil prices and good fundamental data from overseas published this week. Thus, the business activity index (PMI) in the US services sector for October, published on Tuesday, showed growth: 50.9 versus 49.8. New home sales also increased in September: 759K versus 680K.

USD/JPY

The data published above contributed to the exit of the USD/JPY pair from the phase of long-term consolidation at 149.80-148.70. On the weekly USD/JPY chart, greenback buyers easily broke through the upper limit and are currently firmly entrenched above 150.00. If the corresponding foundation is released, the pair may rise to last year’s highs at 151.90. A corrective rollback is possible to 149.50-149.20.

Today at 15:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for the publication of data on basic orders for durable goods in the United States for September. Also at this time, the GDP figure for the third quarter will be released, and weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be published.



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Gold Price Rallies Toward $2K While Crude Oil Price Takes Hit


Gold price surged above the $1,960 resistance during the Israel-Hamas war escalated. Crude oil price struggled and declined below the $85.75 support.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from the $1,974 zone against the US Dollar.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support near $1,982 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices failed to clear the $89.50 region and started a fresh decline.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $83.70 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,940 zone. The price remained in bullish zone and started a strong increase above $1,960 during the Israel-Hamas war.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above the $1,974 and $1,982 resistance levels. Finally, the price tested the $1,995 zone before the bears appeared.

There was a minor downside correction below $1,980 and the RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,953 swing low to the $1,993 high.

The price remained strong above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,953 swing low to the $1,993 high.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,982. Initial support on the downside is near $1,982 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The first major support is near the $1,974 zone. If there is a downside break below the $1,974 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,960 support.

Immediate resistance is near the $1,995 level. The next major resistance is near the $2,000 level. An upside break above the $2,000 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,020. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,050 level.

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USD/JPY Analysis: New High of the Year


Yesterday, for the first time in 2023, the yen weakened to 150.7 per US dollar.

Thus, since the beginning of autumn, the yen has weakened by 3.5%, continuing the trend of 2023, which is due to the difference in the monetary policies of the two countries.

The Fed is pursuing a high rate policy. Yesterday's news testified to the stability of the economy, as US GDP is growing: fact = 4.9% in annual terms; expected = 4.5%; quarter ago = 2.4%. This provides a cushion for the Fed to continue keeping rates high to combat inflation.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose policy, keeping the rate below zero. Today's news showed that Japan's CPI was: actual = 2.7%, expected = 2.5%, a month ago = 2.5%. That is, inflation in Tokyo is raising its head, which increases pressure on the Bank of Japan.

The Bank of Japan meeting will be held next week; on Tuesday, market participants may receive important news about the authorities' response to the weak yen and rising inflation. The chart shows that traders are afraid that the USD/JPY rate could drop sharply because progress in the development of the current trend is slowing down.



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Price of Gold Stabilises Near Its 5-month Highs


The XAU/USD rate fluctuates around $1,987 – the July high was formed around this price. And having overcome it, the market stabilized, as evidenced by the ADX indicator, which dropped to its minimum for the month.

Gold is up about 9% in three weeks on war fears. Moreover, if we take the year 2023, then gold has become a more profitable investment than the stock market, since according to Dow Jones Market Data, as of Thursday's close, the S&P 500 SPX index has gained 7.8% since January 1, at that time as front-month gold futures gained 9.2% over the same period.

On Friday, gold traders are focused on the release of US Core PCE Price Index values at 15:30 GMT+3. News about inflation could cause significant turbulence in the gold market.



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The Dollar Rises Amid Accelerating Economic Growth in the United States


The American currency received support from strong data from the United States. Thus, in the third quarter, gross domestic product increased by 4.9% after increasing by 2.1% earlier, with a forecast of 4.2%, which was the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2021, reflecting easing risks of a recession. At the same time, the positive dynamics of the indicator partially offsets the results of the hawkish policy of the US Federal Reserve: the regulator’s meeting will take place next week, which is also the reason for the current correction.

Optimism from faster growth rates of the American economy was partially offset by statistics on the labour market: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of October 20 increased from 200.0k to 210.0k, while experts expected 208.0k, and the number repeated requests for the week of October 13 — from 1.727 million to 1.790 million, with expectations at 1.740 million.

EUR/USD


According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the pair is consolidating near 1.0565, preparing to end the week with a slight decline. The day before, quotes managed to interrupt the active development of the bearish trend, while the news background remained ambiguous and investors assessed the results of the ECB meeting. As expected, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, noting that further monetary policy will be determined by statistical data, which does not exclude a possible increase in the value in the future. At the same time, the ECB said that inflation in the region continues to decline, but will most likely remain above target levels for a long time.

The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0581, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0606. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0517, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0500.

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Watch FXOpen's 23 - 27 October Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: THE YEN WEAKENS, NASDAQ ENTERS CORRECTION, GOLD STABILISES

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• USD/JPY: New High of the Year #usdjpy
• The NASDAQ Index Officially Enters Correction #nasdaq
• Price of Gold Stabilises Near Its 5-month Highs #gold
• Google report crashes stock price #google

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.







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Price of Oil in Tense Anticipation


Monday's opening came without any surprises. Despite the news that the Israeli army is moving to a new phase of the operation in Gaza, the price of Brent oil did not change much, trading started around the middle of the Friday candle.

The chart shows that the price of Brent oil has fluctuated between USD 86.60 and USD 89.10 since October 24th. At the same time, the MACD indicator shrank near the zero line, which is typical for flat markets. However, it can hardly be said that bidders are calm.

On the one hand, they are closely monitoring news from the Middle East, where escalation could provoke supply disruptions and sharply increase the price of oil. On Sunday, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the US sees an increased risk of the conflict spreading to other parts of the Middle East region.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is expected to make a decision on interest rates this week. The event is scheduled for Wednesday evening, and it can greatly change the current balance of supply and demand.



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GBP/USD Remains At Risk While EUR/GBP Turns Green


GBP/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.2285 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8720 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.2200 support.
• There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2155 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8700 zone.
• There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.8720 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair attempted a fresh increase above 1.2200, as discussed in the previous analysis. However, the British Pound failed above 1.2285 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.2200 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair 1.2155. Finally, there was a spike below the 1.2110 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2069 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

There was a minor move above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2284 swing high to the 1.2069 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near a key contracting triangle at 1.2155. The next major resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2284 swing high to the 1.2069 low at 1.2200.

A close above the 1.2200 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2285. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2350.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2110. If there is a downside break below the 1.2110 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2075 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2020. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2000 support.

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Middle East Tensions and Fed Meeting Influence Oil Prices. Is $250 Per Barrel Likely?


Amidst rising tensions in the Middle East, oil markets have experienced volatility. Israel's deployment of ground forces into the Gaza Strip has not led to the expected surge in oil prices, as investors remain focused on the upcoming US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

Global benchmark Brent crude oil price saw a decline of 1.06%, falling to $89.52 per barrel. Simultaneously, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price dropped by 1.16%, reaching $84.55 per barrel.

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Economic Calendar: BoE and Fed Meetings, Apple Earnings, and US Labour Data


On Wednesday (21:00 GMT+3), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Analysts' opinions are divided. Some believe that the surge in bond yields signals that the Fed will likely keep the rate at 5.5%. Others say strong GDP and PCE data released on Friday strengthened the case for the Fed to keep rates higher for an extended period. Therefore, one more rate hike may occur before this tightening cycle is over. The hawkish tone of the central bank may contribute to the growth of the US dollar and decline in the S&P 500 index, which has fallen over 10% since late July when it reached a one-year-high.



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AMZN Pulls NASDAQ Up, Expecting Help from AAPL


Amazon's quarterly report provided a ray of light in a gloomy environment for the tech-heavy US stock market, as the NASDAQ index fell last week to levels last seen in May.

→ AMZN EPS: actual = USD 0.94, expected = USD 0.58
→ Gross revenue: actual = $143.5 billion, expected = $141 billion
→ For the Q4, AMZN expects revenue of USD 160-167 billion
→ Revenue from Amazon Web Services grew by 12.3% year on year
→ Advertising revenue increased by 26%



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USD/JPY Analysis: Playing with Fire Continues


Yesterday, the Nikkei newspaper reported that the Bank of Japan is considering adjusting its yield curve control (YCC) policy.

This provoked a strengthening of the yen (1). The USD/JPY rate dropped to a two-week extreme of 148.8 per US dollar in anticipation of news from the Bank of Japan.

The news followed this morning (2). The Bank of Japan kept interest rates at -0.1% and also said the 1% ceiling on the benchmark 10-year yield would be an upper bound rather than a hard limit.

As a result of the Bank's decision, the USD/JPY rate returned to the area above 150 yen per US dollar.



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FTSE 100 Sees Modest Gains Despite BP's Earnings Dip and GBP Slump


In the early hours of trading, the FTSE 100 exhibited slight gains, although BP PLC's underwhelming performance during this earnings season limited further progress.

At 8:15 am, London's primary index rose by 7.44 points, marking a 0.1% increase and reaching 7,334.83, while the FTSE 250 experienced a more substantial increase of 64.64 points, equating to a 0.4% uptick and culminating at 17,082.23.

BP encountered a 4.1% decline after failing to meet City expectations for third-quarter profits. Weak results in gas marketing overshadowed the company's robust performance in oil trading. Adjusted net income for the third quarter was reported at $3.29 billion, down from $8.15 billion in the previous year but surpassing the $2.59 billion recorded in the prior period.

Richard Hunter, the head of markets at Interactive Investor, noted that there might be some room for disappointment, particularly in light of the market's anticipation of a $4.01 billion figure.

Vodafone Group PLC saw a 0.5% increase after confirming the sale of its Spanish business for a sum of up to €5 billion. Spectris PLC experienced a more notable rise of 2.8% following its forecast of top-end operating profits.

Rolls-Royce emerged as another strong performer, enjoying a 3.2% increase in its stock value. This surge was propelled by Barclays' decision to upgrade its rating from neutral to overweight while setting a price target of 270p.

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EUR/USD Resumes Drop, USD/JPY Extends Surge


EUR/USD is again moving lower below the 1.0615 support. USD/JPY surged and broke the 151.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0675 support zone.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0570 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 150.00 and 151.00 levels.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 149.85 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained in a bearish zone below the 1.0700 level, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro declined below the 1.0615 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0595 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. More importantly, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0570. A low is formed near 1.0557 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0675 swing high to the 1.0557 low at 1.0585.

The next key resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0595. The first key resistance is the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0675 swing high to the 1.0557 low at 1.0615.

A clear move above the 1.0615 level could send the pair toward the 1.0675 resistance. An upside break above 1.0675 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0750.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0560. The next key support is at 1.0525. If there is a downside break below 1.0525, the pair could drop toward 1.0500. The next support is near 1.0485, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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USD/CAD Analysis: New High of the Year


As the chart shows, yesterday, the USD/CAD rate exceeded 1.389 for the first time in 2023. This happened against the backdrop of news regarding the economies of the USA and Canada:

→ Statistics Canada estimates that GDP contracted in the third quarter. Technically, it can be stated that the Canadian economy has entered a technical recession, as this is the second consecutive negative change in GDP for the quarter.
→ The US Employment Cost Index rose 1.1% in the third quarter after rising 1.0% in the second quarter, the Labour Department reported Tuesday. This is a sign of a strong labour market, but at the same time, it indicates the preconditions for rising inflation, since the costs to the employer may fall on the consumer.

How the Fed assesses inflation will become known today at 21:30 GMT+3 from Powell’s speech. Also, volatility in the USD/CAD market may increase the speech of Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem at 23:15 GMT+3.



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Bank of England's November Interest Rate Decision and Its Potential Impact on the Pound


The British pound faces a crucial test as the Bank of England (BoE) prepares to announce its November interest rate decision. The outcome could significantly influence the pound's value, but several factors come into play.

If all members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote to maintain the current interest rate, and there are no substantial alterations to inflation and growth forecasts, the pound may remain relatively unaffected. This decision aligns with market expectations and is unlikely to cause significant ripples in financial markets.

However, for forward-looking observers, the key focus will be on the guidance provided in the policy statement and the forecasts outlined in the Monetary Policy Report.

Some market sentiment suggests that the BoE might aim to maintain its 'high-for-longer' message, ensuring it remains the primary takeaway from November's policy statement. Such a message could lend support to the pound.

In recent times, there have been no upward adjustments to the base rate, accompanied by indications that rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon. This message may offer some upside for GBP, especially given the already modest expectations for further tightening.

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S&P 500 Analysis: Powell Adds Bullish Momentum


As expected, the Fed left the rate unchanged. Market participants' attention was focused on Powell's press conference, as he said:
→ Risks have now become almost balanced;
→ Inflation expectations are at a good level.

The media publishes the opinions of experts who generally agree that although Jerome Powell has not ruled out the possibility of another rate increase, he does not seem to be very supportive of this idea. So the Fed is not as aggressive as it could be.

As a result, the probability of a rate hike in December has dropped to 20%, and the probability that the rate hike cycle has ended is at 70%.



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Bitcoin Updates Its Maximum for the Year


The cryptocurrency market showed a correlation with the stock market, gaining bullish momentum amid softening rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

The price of the main cryptocurrency reached USD 35,900 for the first time in 18 months.

Wherein:
→ the positivity is also due to expectations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a Bitcoin ETF. According to analysts at Bernstein (an asset management firm), this could happen by the first quarter of 2024.
→ according to the same analysts, the price of Bitcoin could reach USD 150k by 2025;
→ Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomics at Fidelity, called bitcoin a commodity currency or exponential gold that aims to be a store of value and a hedge against monetary depreciation.



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The Franc May Continue to Strengthen amid Low Inflation


Today it became known about the level of inflation in Switzerland. Compared to the US, UK, and other countries, Switzerland can boast of a CPI of only 0.1%. The minimal increase in prices is due to an increase in fuel costs due to the rise in oil prices in the second half of the year. Thus, the country’s economy provides more arguments in favor of the protected harbor status.

On October 5, we wrote that the Swiss franc was near an important resistance, forming an AB double top. After this, the rate fell by 2.5% to form the October low, and now the chart provides a new piece of information for analysis, in particular about the 0.909 level, which acts as an important resistance.

The USD/CHF price has interacted with it before (as shown by the arrows), but note:
→ the level was able to stop the sharp increase on October 31;
→ did not allow the price to reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ the price only briefly stayed higher. The bulls were unable to gain a foothold above 0.909, and the rate fell to the lower border of the channel.



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