Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

GBP/USD Could Recover While USD/CAD Trims Gains


GBP/USD retested the 1.2450 support and is now correcting losses. USD/CAD is correcting gains and trading below the 1.3655 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound is eyeing a fresh increase above the 1.2580 resistance.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2550 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD declined below the 1.3655 and 1.3615 support levels.
• A connecting bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.3615 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2700 resistance zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2550 support to enter a bearish zone against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.

Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2450 zone. The pair is now attempting a recovery wave above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2480. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2642 swing high to the 1.2447 low.

The RSI moved above the 50 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair is now showing a few positive signs. Immediate resistance is forming near a key bearish trend line at 1.2550 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2642 swing high to the 1.2447 low.

The next resistance is near 1.2580. An upside break above the 1.2580 zone could send the pair toward 1.2655. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.2700.

On the downside, initial support is near the 1.2480 area. The next major support is 1.2450. If there is a break below 1.2450, the pair could extend its decline. The next key support is near the 1.2400 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2345 support.

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USD/JPY Analysis: Yen Rises Sharply after Hawkish Government Announcements

Since 2016, the interest rate in Japan has been in the negative zone and has remained unchanged — for more than 7 years it has been -0.10%. This makes Japan fundamentally different from other countries. But over the weekend the Yomiuri newspaper published an interview with Bank of Japan CEO Kazuo Ueda. He said the central bank could end the era of negative interest rates once it becomes clear that the 2% inflation target has been achieved.


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Economic Calendar: A Torrent of UK and Chinese Releases, US Inflation and Inventories, and ECB Meeting

A torrent of key economic data releases is coming out this week, which will significantly impact the markets. First up is UK unemployment and average earnings on Tuesday (10:00). Unemployment is expected to tick up to 4.3%, while earnings remain steady at 8.2%, presenting a quandary for the Bank of England, as it battles to reduce inflation while not induce a recession.



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Oil Price Stabilizes Near Year's Highs


Last week, the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia confirmed plans to reduce production by the end of the year, which contributed to an increase in oil prices.

At the beginning of this week, the WTI price stabilized in the range of 85.50 - 87.50. Will the upward trend continue, which will benefit oil producers?

On Tuesday morning, the price is within the triangle formed from the median line of the ascending channel (shown in blue) and the level of 87.50. A breakout of this triangle can occur in both directions.

Bullish arguments:

→ The price is within the ascending channels, both short-term (built on the 1h and 4h charts) and long-term (built on the daily chart).
→ A series of rising lows is forming on the chart, indicating that demand is active.
→ Technically, the market may be supported by the level of 85.50, which previously served as resistance.
→ Oil supplies may be disrupted due to various storms. For example, in eastern Libya, 4 ports were closed due to flooding and a storm, which killed about 2,000 people.


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TSLA Share Price Soars 10%

The reason for the growth is the increase in the target price for TSLA shares by analysts at Morgan Stanley from USD 250 to USD 400 (about +45% from current levels).

Analysts see huge potential in Tesla Dojo — this supercomputer is capable of processing millions of terabytes of video of real-life situations captured from more than 4 million Tesla vehicles. It is designed to train artificial intelligence models to ultimately help the driver drive a car (Full Self-Driving, FSD system). Analysts say Dojo could serve as the same catalyst as AWS services that helped drive Amazon stock higher.

After analysts at Morgan Stanley upgraded their rating, TSLA's price soared 10%, exceeding USD 270 per share.

This momentum could help develop the current bullish trend that describes the trend channel in the provided chart of TSLA stock, with:
→ the level of USD 260, overcome with a gap, can now provide support;
→ after overcoming this resistance, the price reached the median line of the channel. Here, supply and demand tend to balance out — this could help the bulls gain a foothold above the breakout level of USD 260.


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EUR/USD Attempts Recovery, USD/CHF Faces Uphill Task

EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0715 resistance. USD/CHF is struggling to clear the key 0.8940 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro gained pace after it broke the 1.0705 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0715 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF is consolidating gains below the 0.8940 resistance.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8930 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave from the 1.0685 level. The Euro even cleared the 1.0715 barrier to move into a short-term bullish zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0735. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0760 resistance. It is now consolidating gains below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0705 swing low to the 1.0764 high.

Immediate support on the downside is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0735. The next major support is near a bullish trend line at 1.0715.

The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0705 swing low to the 1.0764 high. A downside break below the 1.0715 support could send the pair toward the 1.0685 level.

Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 1.0760 zone. The first major resistance is near the 1.0780 level. An upside break above the 1.0780 level might send the pair toward the 1.0850 resistance.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0920 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1000 level.

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GBP/USD Analysis: Price Sets a Minimum of 3 Months After GDP News

Disappointing UK economic data was released this morning. According to the Office for National Statistics, real gross domestic product fell by 0.5% in July 2023, with declines occurring across a range of sectors. The last time a decline of this magnitude occurred was in February of this year.

As a result of the publication, the GBP/USD rate dropped sharply. At the same time, it fell below the previous low set on September 7. Bears are putting pressure on the level of 1.245. Let us note that the last time one pound was given was 1.2443 dollars in June of this year.

Bearish arguments:

→ The UK has the highest inflation among Western countries. And the Bank of England is forced to keep rates high in order to lower them, thereby creating the preconditions for a further decline in GDP.
→ In case of a successful bearish breakdown of the level of 1.245, which provided support in September, this level may become resistance. As was the case with the level of 1.255.
→ The GBP/USD rate has been in a downward trend since mid-July, as shown by the red channel. And the median line may put pressure on the pound exchange rate in the near future.



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Major Currency Pairs Test Important Ranges


Yesterday, one could observe measured range trading on the market. The main currency pairs once again tested the previously formed extremes, but neither the continuation of old trends nor the formation of reversal combinations was observed. Most likely, investors and market participants are waiting for today's inflation data in the US. The core consumer price index could provide more clues about the Fed's future monetary policy.

USD/CAD

The rise in oil prices prevented the USD/CAD pair from strengthening above 1.3680. Last week, greenback buyers were determined to move above 1.3700 and test the May highs of this year. The attempt was unsuccessful, and a sharp pullback from 1.3690 allowed sellers to seize the initiative and form a bearish tweezers combination on the daily timeframe. At the moment, the signal to decline is being worked out; the nearest target for sellers will be the range of 1.3500-1.3400. If the upcoming fundamental data of the next trading sessions are positive for the US currency, another approach to 1.3700 may occur. Otherwise, the pair will face a deeper downward correction.

Today at 15:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on inflation in the United States, and at 17:30 GMT+3, weekly data on crude oil reserves will be published. A little later, the main Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Canadian Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) for September will be released.



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EUR/AUD Approaches Important Support Zone


Euro currency traders are focused on the ECB meeting, the decision of which will be published today at 15:15 GMT+3. There will be a press conference at 3:45 p.m.

According to Reuters, the probability of a rate hike is about 60%. The figure stood at 50% at the start of the week as the ECB's updated forecasts expect inflation to remain above 3% next year, well above its 2% target.

At the same time, Australian dollar traders experienced a spike in volatility this morning following the release of strong labor market data in Australia. Last month, the number of employed people increased by almost 65,000 people — the second highest figure in 2023.


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Dollar Trying to Resume Upward Movement After Rise in Core CPI

Yesterday's inflation data in the US turned out to be higher than analysts expected. Thus, in general, the level of consumer prices increased by 3.7% year on year, while on a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.6%. Such data indicate that the Fed's hawkish policy has not yet produced the expected results in the fight against inflation, and, most likely, the rate will be raised again at the September meeting. However, the major currency pairs reacted rather subduedly to yesterday's fundamentals. The euro/US dollar, the pound/US dollar and the US dollar/yen managed to remain in the previously formed flat corridors.

EUR/USD


Buyers of the single European currency once again defended support at 1.0700. The development of an upward correction has not yet been observed, as investors are waiting for today's statement from the ECB. At 15:15 GMT+3, the decision on the base interest rate will be announced, and a press conference with Christine Lagarde will take place a little later. If the head of the ECB announces a possible pause in the rate hike, the pair could instantly find itself at 1.0600-1.0500. Conversely, the hawkish tone of officials could contribute to a rise to 1.1000.

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Gold Price Eyes Recovery While Crude Oil Price Surges


Gold price is eyeing a fresh increase above the $1,915 resistance level. Crude oil price is surging, and it could climb further higher toward the $92 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a recovery wave from the $1,900 zone against the US Dollar.
• It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,908 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices rallied above the $88 and $90 resistance levels.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $89.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,900 zone. The price traded as low as $1,900.93 and recently started a recovery wave.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,908. It is now testing the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,930 swing high to the $1,900 low.

The RSI is back above 50 and the price could aim for more gains. Immediate resistance is near the $1,915 level. The next major resistance is near the $1,924 level.

The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,930 swing high to the $1,900 low also sits at $1,925. An upside break above the $1,924 resistance could send Gold price toward $1,930. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,950 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the 50-hour simple moving average or $1,908. The first major support is $1,900. The main support is $1,888. If there is a downside break below the $1,888 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,865 support.

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Market Reaction to the ECB's Decision to Raise Rates to 4.5%


According to the ECB report, published yesterday:

→ Inflation in Europe continues to decline, but will remain too high for too long.
→ Average inflation is forecast at 5.6% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. This is an upward revision for 2023 and 2024, which mainly reflects rising energy prices.
→ The eurozone economy is forecast to grow by 0.7% in 2023, 1.0% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025.

In order to combat inflation, the ECB decided to raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, which was a surprise, since it was expected to remain at 4.25%. At the same time, the deposit rate reached a historical maximum.

Importantly, the ECB noted that "interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target” — this was perceived by market participants as a signal that the growth cycle (10 rate increases in a row) is completed.


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Yuan Retreats from Multi-year Highs on Strong Economic Data


The US dollar index hit its highest level since early March this week, but the yuan is one of the few currencies to rise against the USD over the period.

This was facilitated, among other things, by strong economic data published today:
→ Industrial production growth in August amounted to +4.5% in annual terms (expected +3.9). This is the strongest progress in 1 month since autumn 2022.
→ Retail sales in August increased by 4.6% year on year (expected +3.0%).

The chart shows that after a multi-year high (B) of about USD 7.36 per yuan set on September 8, the rate has retreated sharply. That is, sales of dollars (B→C) for yuan increased. And the sharp increase in A→B is completely leveled out. This is a bearish sign, indicating that the bulls have completely retreated.



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Market Analysis: The US Dollar Rises on Strong Data


Investors are assessing the August report on consumer prices in the US, which was published the day before and caused a muted market reaction. Thus, the index increased by 0.6% over the month after 0.2% in the previous period, which resulted in an increase in the annual indicator to 3.7% from 3.2% previously. The benchmark index, which US Federal Reserve officials rely on when setting monetary policy, adjusted to 4.3% from 4.7% previously, the lowest reading since October 2021, when it first reached 4.0%. Against this background, experts’ confidence in maintaining the interest rate at 5.25–5.50% at the US Federal Reserve meeting on September 19-20 even increased and, according to the FedWatch Tool indicator from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), now amounts to more than 97.0 %.

EUR/USD

The European currency fell against the US dollar on Thursday as the euro came under pressure after the European Central Bank signaled an end to its rate hike cycle. The ECB raised interest rates at its 10th straight meeting on Thursday to combat persistent inflation but signaled it was likely to ease policy. The central bank of the 20 countries that use the euro raised its deposit rate to 4% from 3.75%, bringing it to a record high level. Markets and economists expect policy tightening to be the ECB's final move and now expect a long pause followed by rate cuts in the second half of next year. The euro fell 0.89% to 1.0635 after falling to 1.0629, its weakest since March 17 and on pace for its biggest one-day percentage drop since July 27. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0711, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rally to 1.0740. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0630, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0594.

Over the past week, a price range has formed with boundaries of $1.0685 and $1.0748. Now the price has moved to the upper half of the range and may continue to rise.


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Watch FXOpen's 11 - 15 September Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: GBP/USD, DOLLAR TRYING TO UPWARD, GOLD PRICE EYES RECOVERY.

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• GBP/USD analysis: Price sets a minimum of 3 months after GDP news
• Dollar trying to resume upward movement after rise in core CPI
• Gold price eyes recovery while crude oil price surges
• Market reaction to the ECB's decision to raise rates to 4.5%

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.




FXOpen YouTube


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GBP/USD Extends Losses While EUR/GBP Gains Strength

GBP/USD extended losses and traded below the 1.2465 support. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8615 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is showing bearish signs below 1.2420.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2465 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is rising and trading above the 0.8600 zone.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near 0.8600 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair attempted a fresh increase above 1.2500. However, the British Pound failed above 1.2540 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below the 1.2465 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. The pair even tested the 1.2380 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2378 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2548 swing high to the 1.2378 low at 1.2420 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The next major resistance is near a bearish trend line at 1.2465. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2548 swing high to the 1.2378 low.

A close above the 1.2465 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2510. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2545. On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2380. If there is a downside break below the 1.2380 support, the pair could accelerate lower.

The next major support is near the 1.2320 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2250. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2200 support.

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USD/CAD Analysis: Canadian Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Inflation News


On September 7, we wrote that the level of 1.365 could serve as resistance, from which the price will form a bearish reversal.

As the USD/CAD chart shows, the rate dropped from this resistance to the psychological level of 1.3500, which served as support.

Wherein:

→ The bullish trend (shown by the blue channel) is broken. Facing resistance at 1.365, the bulls failed to reach the upper boundary of the channel, which was a sign of weakening uptrend. One could also observe bearish divergences on a number of indicators.

→ The price at the beginning of the week is in a downward trend, which is shown by the red channel.



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Euro vs Turkish Lira: A Tale of Turbulence and Opportunity


As the summer holiday season drew to a close approximately two weeks ago, tourists from across the globe bid farewell to Turkey, a nation known for its captivating landscapes, rich history, and hospitality.

For decades, Turkey has been a favoured destination for travellers from Europe, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and Eurasia. Its vibrant tourist industry, catering to package tours and all-inclusive hotels, has consistently offered families and working individuals a few weeks of relaxation at an affordable price. However, beneath this veneer of holiday bliss, Turkey's economy has grappled with a persistent challenge – the devaluation of the Turkish Lira.

The Lira's Downward Spiral

Over the past six years, the Turkish Lira has been on a rocky path, depreciating significantly against major global currencies.

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Us Dollar Weakens ahead of the Fed Meeting

EUR/USD

The euro rose against the US dollar on Friday, boosted by hopes that the ECB is ending its cycle of rate hikes and data suggesting China's faltering economy may be regaining some momentum. The ECB raised its key interest rate to a record 4% on Thursday and warned it would remain at that level until inflation above target is resolved. Data on Friday showed Chinese retail sales and industrial production figures for August beat economists' expectations, even as the housing market slump deepened. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0675, off a low of $1.0632, its weakest since March 20. Immediate resistance can be seen at $1.0710, a break higher could trigger a rise towards $1.0760. On the upside, immediate support is seen at 1.0637, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0592.

Based on last week's lows, a new downward channel has formed. Now, the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to rise.


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S&P 500 under Pressure ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting


The decision on the base interest rate will be published tomorrow at 21:00 GMT+3, and Powell will hold a press conference at 21:30. Although most experts, as reported by the media, expect that the current rate will remain, market participants will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's assessment of the current situation, which includes new data on inflation and the labour market. It is possible that there will be another rate increase before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 chart shows the market under pressure in mid-September, although the overall picture appears balanced.

The balance of supply and demand is indicated by the fact that the movement B→C is approximately 50% of the movement A→B. And the C→D movement is approximately 50% of the B→C movement. That is, fluctuations die out as buyers and sellers converge.

The price is still within the ascending channel (shown in blue), but it is possible that during tomorrow's news announcement from the Federal Reserve there will be an attempt by the bears to break through it.



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