Date:15th January 2026.
From ETFs to Technicals: What’s Fuelling Silver’s 2026 Rally.
The best-performing asset in 2026 so far is Silver. Silver paused during the Asian session this morning after rising for four consecutive days. However, technical analysis is not yet indicating a prolonged downturn.
So, why is Silver the best-performing asset of 2026, and what are analysts predicting for 2026?
The increase that Silver is experiencing is largely due to demand from institutional investors rather than physical demand. According to the latest reports and projections, demand for physical Silver is likely to slightly decrease over the next 12 months.
Institutions are buying Silver for similar reasons to Gold, however, Silver is much more volatile and cheaper to purchase. The slightly lower inflation readings from this week, projections for more frequent interest rate cuts, and questions over Fed independence are increasing demand.
Economists are not expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month, nor in March 2026. For this reason, the US Dollar has slightly risen while stocks have fallen. However, economists do believe that in the second and third quarters of the year, the Fed will need to make frequent rate cuts. On average, economists believe the Fed will need to cut by 0.75% by the end of the year. This would take the Federal Fund Rate to 3.00%, the lowest since the summer of 2022.
For this reason, investors expect the Federal Reserve to delay cuts in the first quarter but eventually cut rates later in the year. At the same time, investors are incorporating political risks into their strategy, which is resulting in a need for Gold and Silver. These include the Federal Reserve’s independence and US global intentions such as within Greenland.
In addition, investors are also treading cautiously as the US Midterms will take place later in the year.
Market participants are reviewing the Silver Institute’s early 2025 outlook, which expects global industrial silver demand to fall 2% to 665 million ounces. The decline reflects trade policy uncertainty and reduced use in electronics and photochemical applications.
Demand for physical bars and coins is also expected to drop to a seven-year low, down 4% from 2024. However, strong investment inflows into Silver ETFs rose 18%, with net inflows of 187 million ounces. This is likely to offset weaker physical demand and help support prices, particularly as investors seek protection from inflation and currency volatility.
On the CME, Silver trading activity spiked on 7 January, with volumes reaching 195,000 contracts, well above the early-month average.
HFM - 15-Minute Chart
Due to the bullish price movement, indicators and price action are understandably pointing towards Silver’s trend continuing. Even with the current retracement, the price fell to the previous low and did not necessarily form significant breakouts.
When looking at the 2-hour timeframe, the price of the metal remains above the key Moving Average, above the neutral area of the RSI, and the MACD. For this reason, indicators continue to point towards buyers maintaining control. Fundamental analysis also indicates this, with inflation reading slightly lower. The main risk for Silver and Gold is the rise in the US Dollar. If the US Dollar declines, Silver can potentially strengthen further.
The only indicators currently pointing towards a downward price movement are the 200-bar Moving Average on the 5-minute timeframe. The price currently remains below this level, giving a bearish bias. However, the price is currently rising and trading close to this level. If the price forms a bullish breakout at $90.185, the bearish bias is likely to fade.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
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Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
From ETFs to Technicals: What’s Fuelling Silver’s 2026 Rally.
The best-performing asset in 2026 so far is Silver. Silver paused during the Asian session this morning after rising for four consecutive days. However, technical analysis is not yet indicating a prolonged downturn.
So, why is Silver the best-performing asset of 2026, and what are analysts predicting for 2026?
The increase that Silver is experiencing is largely due to demand from institutional investors rather than physical demand. According to the latest reports and projections, demand for physical Silver is likely to slightly decrease over the next 12 months.
Institutions are buying Silver for similar reasons to Gold, however, Silver is much more volatile and cheaper to purchase. The slightly lower inflation readings from this week, projections for more frequent interest rate cuts, and questions over Fed independence are increasing demand.
Economists are not expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month, nor in March 2026. For this reason, the US Dollar has slightly risen while stocks have fallen. However, economists do believe that in the second and third quarters of the year, the Fed will need to make frequent rate cuts. On average, economists believe the Fed will need to cut by 0.75% by the end of the year. This would take the Federal Fund Rate to 3.00%, the lowest since the summer of 2022.
For this reason, investors expect the Federal Reserve to delay cuts in the first quarter but eventually cut rates later in the year. At the same time, investors are incorporating political risks into their strategy, which is resulting in a need for Gold and Silver. These include the Federal Reserve’s independence and US global intentions such as within Greenland.
In addition, investors are also treading cautiously as the US Midterms will take place later in the year.
Market participants are reviewing the Silver Institute’s early 2025 outlook, which expects global industrial silver demand to fall 2% to 665 million ounces. The decline reflects trade policy uncertainty and reduced use in electronics and photochemical applications.
Demand for physical bars and coins is also expected to drop to a seven-year low, down 4% from 2024. However, strong investment inflows into Silver ETFs rose 18%, with net inflows of 187 million ounces. This is likely to offset weaker physical demand and help support prices, particularly as investors seek protection from inflation and currency volatility.
On the CME, Silver trading activity spiked on 7 January, with volumes reaching 195,000 contracts, well above the early-month average.
HFM - 15-Minute Chart
Due to the bullish price movement, indicators and price action are understandably pointing towards Silver’s trend continuing. Even with the current retracement, the price fell to the previous low and did not necessarily form significant breakouts.
When looking at the 2-hour timeframe, the price of the metal remains above the key Moving Average, above the neutral area of the RSI, and the MACD. For this reason, indicators continue to point towards buyers maintaining control. Fundamental analysis also indicates this, with inflation reading slightly lower. The main risk for Silver and Gold is the rise in the US Dollar. If the US Dollar declines, Silver can potentially strengthen further.
The only indicators currently pointing towards a downward price movement are the 200-bar Moving Average on the 5-minute timeframe. The price currently remains below this level, giving a bearish bias. However, the price is currently rising and trading close to this level. If the price forms a bullish breakout at $90.185, the bearish bias is likely to fade.
- Silver leads 2026 performance. It’s the top-performing asset so far, despite a brief pause after four consecutive days of gains.
- Institutional demand drives momentum. Growth is fuelled by ETFs and institutional buying rather than physical silver demand.
- Fed rate expectations influence buying. Investors anticipate rate cuts later in 2026, boosting silver and gold as hedges.
- Physical demand is declining. Industrial use and coins/bars are projected to drop, but ETF inflows (up 18%) support prices.
- Technical indicators remain bullish. Silver’s price is holding above key moving averages and RSI/MACD signals, suggesting buyers remain in control.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
