Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

USD/CAD H4 Technical and fundamental Outlook

The USD/CAD currency pair, commonly known as the "Loonie" due to the loon bird depicted on the Canadian one-dollar coin, represents the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar. As of today, key economic events are poised to influence this pair. At 3:30 PM, Canada's Building Permits data is scheduled for release, with a forecasted increase of 1.6% compared to the previous month's decline of 5.9%. A positive deviation could bolster the Canadian dollar, potentially leading to a decrease in the USD CAD rate. Later, at 5:00 PM, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's testimony is anticipated. Hawkish remarks may strengthen the U.S. dollar, while dovish comments could exert downward pressure. Traders should monitor these events closely, as they are likely to induce volatility in the USDCAD forex market.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD/CAD H4 chart reveals that the price is currently situated between a significant support zone (highlighted in green) and a strong resistance area. The 100-period Moving Average (MA) is positioned above the current price, indicating a prevailing bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is attempting to break above the 50 level, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. If the price fails to hold above the established support zone, a substantial bearish wave could ensue. Conversely, a successful breach of the resistance zone and the 100-period MA, accompanied by an RSI move above 50, may signal a bullish reversal. Traders should exercise caution and await confirmation before making trading decisions, as the USD-CAD price action remains at a critical juncture.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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[Capitalcore]

Gold Price Analysis Bulls Push XAUUSD Near ATH

Gold (XAU/USD), often referred to as the "safe-haven asset" or "yellow metal," remains a key instrument in forex trading, closely monitored by investors for its reaction to economic data, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties. With its inverse correlation to the US dollar and bond yields, gold often serves as a hedge against inflation and market volatility. Today, gold traders are closely watching key economic events that could drive price action. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI reports will indicate inflationary trends, directly influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations. Additionally, a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on stablecoins could hint at monetary policy sentiment, affecting USD strength. President Donald Trump’s press conference might introduce economic policy shifts, further impacting market risk sentiment. If PPI data exceeds forecasts, it may strengthen the USD, applying downward pressure on gold. Conversely, weaker-than-expected inflation figures may support further gold gains. Moreover, jobless claims data and the 30-year Treasury auction could impact market liquidity and investor risk appetite, reinforcing XAU/USD volatility.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The price of gold (XAU/USD) remains in a strong bullish trend, hovering near its recent all-time high (ATH). After experiencing a slight retracement, indicated by a series of red candles, the latest three candles have turned positive, reflecting renewed buying momentum. The Ichimoku Cloud remains green, and price action is well above the cloud, mirroring last month's bullish trend and reinforcing the ongoing upward trajectory.
Additionally, the RSI indicator is trending higher, with the RSI line approaching the RSI moving average (MA) line, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. If the RSI breaks above the MA line, it could confirm further upside movement. Fibonacci retracement levels highlight key resistance near $2,941, while support is identified around $2,747 (0.5 level). If gold maintains its bullish momentum above these critical levels, a continuation towards new highs remains likely. However, any stronger-than-expected USD-related economic data could cause temporary pullbacks before another potential bullish move.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

NZDUSD Price Action and Fibonacci Levels

The NZDUSD, commonly known as the "Kiwi", is a major forex pair influenced by economic policies, commodity prices, and risk sentiment. It often reflects global trade dynamics, given New Zealand’s strong ties to commodity exports and the USD’s role as the world's reserve currency. Today, the NZDUSD pair faces key fundamental drivers as the U.S. Retail Sales Ex Autos, Advance Retail Sales, Import Price Index, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Industrial Production reports are set to be released. A higher-than-expected retail sales figure would indicate strong consumer spending, boosting the USD and adding downside pressure on NZD/USD. Conversely, New Zealand’s Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and Food Price Index (FPI) could provide some relief if they signal economic resilience. However, with recent USD strength supported by economic stability and inflation concerns, the Kiwi remains vulnerable to further declines unless U.S. data disappoints or the Fed signals a dovish shift.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
NZDUSD is currently at its lowest price since October 2022, undergoing a correction phase with bullish candles pushing above the Ichimoku cloud. The 0.236 Fibonacci level is the first key resistance zone, and a breakout could open the path toward the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. However, the Ichimoku cloud has thinned, indicating potential weakness in the bullish move. Williams %R is near oversold conditions, suggesting a possible rebound, but confirmation is needed. If the NZD USD price fails to sustain above the cloud, a breakdown below 0.5615 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) could lead to further downside pressure, reinforcing the bearish trend.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

Nikkei Fundamental and Price Action Analysis

JAP_MAR25, commonly referred to as the Nikkei 225 Futures (March 2025 Contract) serves as a critical barometer for Japan’s stock market, reflecting economic sentiment and global risk appetite. Today's economic releases, including Japan's GDP Deflator, Real GDP, Industrial Production, and Tertiary Industry Activity Index, will significantly impact market direction. A higher-than-forecast GDP deflator and real GDP would strengthen the yen and support equity markets, while weak production and service sector data could hint at economic sluggishness, possibly leading to increased market volatility. With the next GDP and production data releases scheduled in mid-March and May, today's figures will set the tone for near-term sentiment, influencing investor confidence in Japanese equities.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
After breaking the downtrend resistance line, JAP_MAR25 has established an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. Currently, the price is sitting on the support line, where a bullish engulfing candle and an inside bar (pin bar) pattern suggest a potential continuation of the uptrend. Should the support hold, the price may attempt another breakout towards the resistance zone ahead, which has previously acted as a supply area. However, if the trendline support fails, the first downside target could be the stronger, long-term support zone below, providing a key decision point for price action traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 52, indicating a neutral stance but with potential upside momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram shows weakening bullish momentum, and a bearish crossover may emerge if selling pressure increases. This technical setup suggests that while the uptrend is still intact, traders should closely monitor price action at the support level before committing to new positions.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

USD/CAD H4 Chart Signals Bearish Continuation

The USD/CAD forex pair, commonly known as the "Loonie," represents the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar (USD) and the Canadian dollar (CAD), with its nickname stemming from the image of a loon on the Canadian one-dollar coin. Today, at 3:30 PM, Canada is set to release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, expected to increase by 0.1% from the previous month's -0.4%, while the Median CPI y/y is projected to rise to 2.5% from 2.4% and the Trimmed CPI y/y to 2.6% from 2.5%. These anticipated upticks suggest mounting inflationary pressures, potentially prompting the Bank of Canada to tighten monetary policy, which could strengthen the CAD. Meanwhile, the U.S. is releasing the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 3:30 PM, expected to improve to -1.9 from -12.6, and the NAHB Housing Market Index at 5:00 PM, forecasted to slightly decline to 46 from 47. These mixed indicators may lead to cautious sentiment toward the USD, and the interplay of these economic releases could result in increased volatility for the USDCAD pair today.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD/CAD H4 chart, the price has recently broken below the Ichimoku cloud, which has turned red, signaling a clear bearish trend and indicating that sellers are gaining control. This breakdown suggests that the cloud, now acting as resistance, could prevent upward movement and reinforce further downside pressure. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the oversold threshold of 30 but has not yet crossed it, implying that there is still room for further price declines before extreme selling conditions are reached. This technical setup suggests the initiation of a new bearish phase, with traders potentially eyeing short positions as the price continues to struggle beneath key resistance levels.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

EURUSD Price Action Forecast with Fibonacci and Ichimoku


The EUR/USD currency pair, often referred to as the "Fiber", is one of the most traded pairs in the forex market, reflecting the strength of the Euro against the US Dollar. Today, market participants are focused on a series of high-impact USD news events, including speeches from US President Donald Trump and multiple Federal Reserve officials, which could provide crucial insights into US monetary policy and economic outlook. In addition, unemployment claims data and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey will gauge the health of the US economy. From the European side, Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) and consumer confidence data from the Eurozone will influence Euro sentiment. A stronger-than-expected US economic outlook or a hawkish stance from FOMC members could drive the USD higher, putting pressure on EURUSD. Conversely, any signs of economic weakness or dovish tones may lead to USD weakness, supporting the Euro.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The EUR/USD H4 chart is currently showing a bearish trend within a descending channel, despite the fact that the price is still above the Ichimoku cloud. However, it is approaching the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud, forming a critical support zone. If this level holds, a potential bounce-back could occur, but a breakdown would signal further downside potential. The Ichimoku cloud remains green, suggesting a longer-term bullish sentiment, though it has become thinner, indicating weakening support. Meanwhile, the Williams %R indicator is in oversold territory, which could hint at a short-term retracement or consolidation before further downward movement. Traders should closely watch how the EUR USD price reacts at these levels, as breaking below the cloud could accelerate selling pressure, while a strong bounce may signal a reversal.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore