Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

E-mini S&P 500: What the Decline in Volatility Means

The daily E-mini S&P 500 chart shows that the ATR indicator (14) is in the 2023 lows, dropping below the value of 40.

What can low values of the ATR indicator mean, indicating a decrease in volatility?

1→ Remember the proverb “Sell in May and Go Away”, implying that the stock market is usually inactive starting from May. Are traders already on vacation after the main part of the reporting season? It is unlikely that the solution to the problem with the US public debt lies ahead. Already today, Tuesday, President Biden held talks with representatives of Congress on this matter.

2→ An important trend is brewing in the E-mini S&P 500 futures market. Notice the low ATR values at the end of 2021, followed by a massive decline. The market periodically changes its state: from flat (when reversal strategies work) → to trend (when breakout strategies work) → and so on ad infinitum.


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BTCUSD Analysis: Hammer Pattern above $25,838

Bitcoin price continues its bullish momentum from last week, and after touching a low of $25,838 on May 12, we can see a move towards a consolidation phase, after which we are expecting upsides in the range of $28,500-$29,000.

We can clearly see a hammer pattern above the $25,838 handle on the H1 timeframe.

Bitcoin today continues to move in a consolidation phase, after which we can see upside moves towards the $27,000 handle.

Both the STOCH and Williams’s percent range are in overbought zones, which means that in the immediate short term a decline in the price is expected.

We can also see the formation of a bullish harami pattern in the 15-minute and weekly timeframes.

The relative strength index is at 48.98, indicating a neutral demand for Bitcoin and the continuation of the consolidation in the markets.

Bitcoin price is now moving above its 100-hour simple moving average and its 100-hour exponential moving average.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a bullish signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of $27,500 and $28,500.

The average true range indicates low market volatility with mild bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin price bullish continuation is seen above $25,838.
• The RSI remains below 50, indicating a neutral market.
• The Bitcoin price is now trading below its pivot level of $27,242.
• The short-term range is mildly bullish.
• Bitcoin price is ranging near the support of the channel and triangle.

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EUR/USD and USD/JPY Weekly Chart Outlook

EUR/USD started a decent recovery above the 1.0500 resistance. USD/JPY is showing positive signs but must clear 137.30 to start a fresh increase.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis

• The Euro broke a few hurdles near 1.0500 and 1.0820 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.0500 on the weekly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY corrected lower from the 152.00 resistance and found support at 127.20.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 133.00 on the weekly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the weekly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a decent recovery wave after it settled above the 1.0000 level. The Euro was able to gain pace above 1.0200 against the US Dollar.

During the increase, it traded above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.0500 and the 50-week simple moving average. Recently, there was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last major decline from the 1.2266 swing high to the 0.9535 low.

On the upside, the first major resistance is forming near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last major decline from the 1.2266 swing high to the 0.9535 low at 1.1220.

The next major resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 1.1620 level, above which the pair might revisit the 1.2260 resistance zone if the weekly RSI stays above 50.

Conversely, if EUR/USD fails to climb higher above the 1.1220 resistance, it could correct gains. Immediate support is near the 1.0820 level. The first major support is near the 1.0500 level, below which the pair could decline toward 1.0000.

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Strengthening US Dollar Creates Pressure on Bitcoin and Other Assets

On Wednesday morning, the dollar index exceeded the high of April. The two following factors contributed to the strengthening of the USD:

→ Growing drama with public debt. Yesterday it became known that President Joe Biden and a senior Republican in Congress, Kevin McCarthy, are close to an agreement to raise the US national debt ceiling, but the decision has not yet been made. Goldman Sachs expects the US Treasury to run out June 8-13. And JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup Inc executives say the damage to US business and the economy will begin long before a technical default. Investors see cash as a safe haven in case of default.

→ Strong retail sales data released yesterday. Core Retail Sales was +0.4%, while the values for the previous two months were negative.

The strengthening US dollar led to a fall in the exchange rate against the USD, to a decrease in the price of gold, as well as bitcoin.


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ETHUSD Analysis: Bullish Engulfing Pattern above $1,785

Bulls were able to take control of the market, and after touching a low of $1,785 on 17 May, the ETHUSD pair started moving upwards, with strong demand seen above $1,800.

On the H1 timeframe:

• ETHUSD is supported by bulls after its decline below the $1,800 handle with immediate targets of $1,850 and $1,900.
• The bullish engulfing pattern is above the $1,785 handle. It's a bullish pattern, which signifies the end of a bearish phase.
• The relative strength index is at 59.28, indicating a strong demand for Ether and a continuation of a buying sentiment in the market.
• Both the STOCH and ADX are giving a neutral signal, meaning that the Ethereum price is expected to remain in the consolidation phase in the short-term range.
• ETH price is now trading above the 100-hour simple and 200-hour exponential moving averages.
• ETH price bullish reversal is seen above the $1,785 mark.
• The average true range indicates low market volatility.
• The ultimate oscillator indicator provides a neutral signal.

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LTCUSD Analysis: Inverted Hammer Pattern above $79.64

Bulls were able to take control of the market last week, and after touching a low of $79.64 on 13 May, the price started to correct higher against the US Dollar, crossing the $94.00 handle today in the European trading session.

The short-term outlook for Litecoin has turned mildly bullish.

On the H1 timeframe:

• There is an inverted hammer pattern above the $79.64 handle. It signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the market.
• Litecoin price is trading above its 100-hour simple moving average and 200-hour exponential moving average and just above its pivot level of $92.97.
• The relative strength index is at 69.02, indicating a strong demand for Litecoin and a shift towards the bullish phase in the markets.
• Litecoin remains above most of the moving averages, which is a bullish signal at current market levels of $93.20.
• Some of the technical indicators are bullish.
• The average true range indicates low market volatility.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Weekly Chart Outlook

AUD/USD struggled to stay above 0.7000 and corrected lower. Similarly, NZD/USD is facing strong resistance near 0.6540.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis

• The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction from the 0.7150 zone against the US Dollar.
• There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6900 on the weekly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD also started a steady increase above the 0.5750 and 0.6000 levels.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6365 on the weekly chart at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the weekly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair climbed higher above the 0.6540 and 0.6900 resistance levels. However, the Aussie Dollar failed to clear the 0.7150 zone against the US Dollar.

As a result, there was a bearish reaction from the 0.7150 zone. The pair corrected lower below the 0.6900 pivot level and the 50-week simple moving average. Besides, there was a spike below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6170 swing low to the 0.7157 high.

On the AUD/USD chart, the pair is now showing bearish signs below the 50-week simple moving average and a crucial bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6900. Only a successful daily close above 0.6900 might start a strong recovery toward the 0.7150 level.

Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.7550 level. The next major resistance sits near the 0.8000 resistance. On the downside, the first major support is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6170 swing low to the 0.7157 high at 0.6540.

The next major support is near the 0.6400 level, below which the pair may perhaps extend its decline toward the 0.6170 level. Any more losses might call for a move toward the 0.6000 level.

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Watch FXOpen's May 15 - 19 Weekly Market Wrap Video

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• Buckle up for the rise of E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures, hitting the year's highest peak so far
• Brace yourself for the unthinkable: US Default. Explore the captivating question of what direction the markets might take if the US Government runs out of money and discover the top 3 assets to keep an eye on. It's time to strategize!
• Crude Oil Analysis: Is the industry running on empty, or are there surprising turns ahead? Find out now!

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GBP/USD Struggles Below 1.2500 While EUR/GBP Remains at Risk

GBP/USD is struggling to clear the 1.2500 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is now consolidating losses below the 0.8700 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is trading in a bearish zone below 1.2500 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2445 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh decline from the 0.8710 resistance zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8700 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a major decline from well above 1.2520. The British Pound traded below the 1.2500 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair tested the 1.2390 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2391 and recently the pair started a fresh increase. There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.2445. More importantly, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2445.

Finally, it spiked above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2510 swing high to the 1.2391 low. The GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 1.2475 level.

The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2510 swing high to the 1.2391 low is also near 1.2445. The next major resistance is near the 1.2500 level. A clear move above the 1.2500 level could spark a rally toward the 1.2540 level considering the RSI is above 50.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near the 1.2445 level. If there is a downside break below the 1.2445 support, the pair could accelerate lower.

The next major support is near the 1.2390 level, below which the pair could test 1.2350. In the stated case, GBP/USD may perhaps revisit the 1.2320 support. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2250 support.

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BTCUSD Analysis: Bullish Harami Pattern Above $26,394

Bitcoin’s price continues its bullish momentum from last week, and after touching a low of USD 26,394 on May 18, we can see a move towards a consolidation phase, after which we are expecting upsides in the range of USD 28500 and USD 29000.

On the hourly chart:

• We can clearly see a bullish Harami pattern above the USD 26,394 handle.
• Both the STOCH and Williams’s percent range indicate overbought levels, which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the price is expected.
• The resistance of the channel is broken.
• The relative strength index is at 63.84, indicating a strong demand for Bitcoin and the continuation of the buying phase in the markets.
• Most of the major technical indicators are giving a bullish signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of USD 28,000 and USD 28,500.
• Bitcoin’s price is now moving above its 100-hour simple moving average and its 100-hour exponential moving average.
• The average true range indicates low market volatility with mild bullish momentum.

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XRPUSD Analysis: Three White Soldiers Pattern Above $0.4441

Last week, the market sentiment remained indecisive after Ripple price touched a low of USD 0.4441 on May 18 and started to correct upwards, with the prices ranging near a new record high of 1 month.

On the hourly chart:

• The relative strength index is at 53.20, which signifies a neutral demand for Ripple at the current market price and the continuation of the consolidation phase in the market.
• Moving averages signal an upwards price movement at the current market level of 0.4609.
• The ADX and CCI are both in the neutral zone, which means the price is expected to consolidate further.
• Ripple is now trading just below its pivot level of 0.4628 and is facing its classic resistance at 0.4660 and Fibonacci resistance at 0.4705, after which it will be able to move towards 0.4900.
• The Ichimoku price is over the cloud, indicating a bullish market.
• Bullish price crossover seen with moving averages MA20 and MA50.

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EUR/USD Turns Red, USD/CHF Bulls in Control

EUR/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.0830 resistance. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.9060 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0845 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF is gaining pace above the 0.9000 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9020 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair faced rejection near 1.0830. The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.0828 swing high against the US Dollar.

There was a move below the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0800. The pair tested the 1.0765 support. A low is formed near 1.0760 and the pair is now correcting losses. It is slowly moving higher above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0828 swing high to the 1.0760 low.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0790. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0828 swing high to the 1.0760 low.

The first major resistance is a major bearish trend line at 1.0810. An upside break above the 1.0810 level might send the pair toward the 1.0845 resistance. The next major resistance is near the 1.0900 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0920 level.

If there is no move above 1.0810 and RSI stays below 50, the pair might start a fresh decline. On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.0765.

The next major support is near the 1.0750 level. A downside break below the 1.0750 support could send the pair toward the 1.0720 level.

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ETHUSD Analysis: Bearish Harami Pattern below $1,871

Bulls couldn’t take control of the market, and after touching a high of $1,871 on 23 May, the ETH/USD pair is moving in a bearish trend, touching a low of $1,762 today in the early Asian trading session.

The short-term outlook for Ethereum has turned mildly bearish.

On the hourly chart:

• ETHUSD is under bearish pressure after a decline below the $1,800 handle with immediate targets of $1,750 and $1,700.
• The bearish harami pattern is below the $1,871 handle, signifying the end of a bullish phase.
• The relative strength index is at 40.11, indicating weak demand for Ether and a continuation of the selling pressure in the market.
• The CCI is giving a neutral signal, meaning that the Ethereum price is expected to remain in the consolidation phase in the short-term range.
• ETH price is now trading below the 100-hour simple and 200-hour exponential moving averages.
• The Ethereum price opened bearish this week.
• The average true range indicates low market volatility.

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LTCUSD Analysis: Black Marubozu Pattern below $93.46

Bulls couldn’t take control of the market, and after touching a high of $93.46 on 23 May, the LTC/USD pair started moving in a bearish trend, touching a low of $82.60 today in the early Asian trading session.

The short-term outlook for Litecoin has turned mildly bearish.

On the hourly chart:

• There is a black Marubozu candle below the $93.46 handle. It signifies the start of a bearish phase in the market.
• Litecoin price is trading below its 100-hour simple moving average, 200-hour exponential moving average, and its pivot level of $84.49.
• The relative strength index is at 38.28, indicating weak demand for Litecoin and a shift towards the bearish phase in the markets.
• Litecoin remains below most of the moving averages, which are giving a bearish signal at current market levels of $84.49.
• Some of the technical indicators are neutral.
• The average true range indicates low market volatility.

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Gold and Crude Oil At Risk of More Losses

Gold price is struggling below the $1,967 support level. Crude oil price is also declining and remains at a risk of more losses below $70.75.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price failed to clear the $1,982 resistance and trimmed gains against the US Dollar.
• It is now following a short-term declining channel with resistance near $1,948 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices are also moving lower below $72.80 and $72.00 levels.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $73.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price struggled to start a fresh increase above the $1,982 resistance. The price started a fresh decline below the $1,967 support.

There was a close below the 50-hour simple moving average and $1,950. The price tested the $1,938 support zone. A low is formed at $1,936.68, and the price is now consolidating losses. It is following a short-term declining channel with resistance near $1,948.

The channel resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,982 swing high to the $1,938 low. The next major resistance is near the $1,950 level.

If the breakout occurs, the price will target resistance of $1,960 near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,982 swing high to the $1,938 low and the 50-hour simple moving average. An upside break above $1,960 could send the Gold price toward $1,967. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,982 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,938 level. The first major support is near the $1,932 level. The next support sits near the $1,920 level. If there is a downside break below $1,920, the price might decline heavily towards $1,900, below which the bulls could aim for a test of $1,880.

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EUR/USD Approaches Important Support

Yesterday, EUR/USD hit new May’s lows. This week’s latest news contributed to the decline:

→ Germany's GDP in Q1 2023 decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous three months. German media write about the official start of the recession.

→ The US economy in Q1 grew by 1.3% in annual terms.

→ Worrying opinions are spreading about a possible crisis due to the situation in the US housing market. According to JPMorgan analysts, the next shock to the US banking system could be loans for commercial real estate.

→ Traders see the dollar as a reliable asset in the face of the not yet raised US government debt ceiling.

The EUR/USD chart shows that the rate has already fallen by 3.3% from the peaks of May. The rate is approaching the psychological mark of USD 1.07 per euro, which may support the market.


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Watch FXOpen's May 22 - 26 Weekly Market Wrap Video

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights in FXOpen's May 22 - 26 Weekly Market Wrap Video.

• AMD share price breaks August 2022 high. How can the price of Advanced Micro Devices stock change?
• What about the default? GBP dips to its lowest point against the USD in a week.
• FTSE drops rapidly to April lows. Will Bank of England raise interest rates at its next meeting?
• Dow Jones hits May lows. Analysts say the probability of a default at the moment is 25% and is increasing every day.

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GBP/USD Eyes Fresh Increase While USD/CAD Dips To Support

GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 1.2310 support. USD/CAD is correcting gains and approaching the 1.3585 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound declined steadily from the 1.2475 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2360 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD is correcting gains from the 1.3650 resistance zone.
• There is a declining channel or a bullish flag pattern forming with resistance near 1.3620 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a major decline from the 1.2475 zone. The British Pound declined below the 1.2390 support against the US Dollar.

The bears pushed the pair below the 1.2360 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It retested the 1.2310 support. The recent low was formed near 1.2321 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase.

It is back above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2395 swing high to the 1.2321 low. Immediate resistance is near a key bearish trend at 1.2360.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2395 swing high to the 1.2321 low is also near the trend line resistance. The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 1.2380 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2390 level. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2475 resistance in the near term.

If there is no upside break and RSI dips below 50, the pair might start a fresh decline. Initial support sits near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.2340. The next major support sits at 1.2310, where the bulls might take a stand. If there is a downside break, GBP/USD might test the 1.2240 support.

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US Debt Default Date Gets Nearer. Will the Dollar Retain Dominance over the Pound?

It’s all so predictable, isn’t it?

Politics and suspense go hand in hand, and when it comes to potential cracks in the economy and central monetary policy of the United States, the issuer of the world’s de facto reserve currency, that’s what keeps the markets going.

Over recent weeks, the global media and the US Federal Reserve have been engaging in a dance with each other, involving speculation and suspense in the advent of the United States government’s ability or otherwise to be able to maintain payments on its debt commitments after June 1 this year.

That date is now fast approaching, especially considering that today is a public holiday across many nations in Europe and North America, giving the reality of the outcome just two working days to make itself known.

Interestingly, very little impact has been felt by traders of the US Dollar, and today’s currency market shows no change in this dynamic.

Ordinarily, if one of the world’s most important and influential economies is about to become insolvent, the currency issued by its central bank would depreciate like an iron girder being thrown off a precipice.

In the case of the US Dollar, this has simply not been the case at all, and the US Dollar has continued its rise against other majors, especially the British Pound.

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BTCUSD Analysis: Tweezer Bottom Pattern above $26,121

Bitcoin price continues its bullish momentum from last week after touching a low of $26,121 on May 25, with strong upsides located in the range of $28,500 and $29,000.

On the hourly chart:

• We can clearly see a tweezer bottom pattern above the $26,121 handle, which indicates a bullish trend.
• Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI indicate overbought market conditions, which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the price may occur.
• The MACD crosses UP its moving average.
• The relative strength index is at 56.95, indicating a strong demand for Bitcoin and the continuation of the buying pressure in the market.
• Most of the major technical indicators give a bullish signal, which means that in the immediate short term, the expected targets are $28,000 and $28,500.
• Bitcoin price is now moving above its 100-hour simple moving average and 100-hour exponential moving average.
• The average true range indicates low market volatility with mild bullish momentum.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.